Penn State -13.5

I think the comparison between last years PSU and Michigan teams is relevant. Michigan didn't/does not have the offense that PSU has. Totally my opinion, but against Michigan you can afford to play a pound it out slugfest type of game in which you can depend on the defense and special teams keeping it close to give your offense plenty of opportunities to win the game. Against a PSU type team, you have to be able to have that confidence in your offense to put points on the board because your not going to hold PSU's offense in check (like you can against Michigan) and keep them out of the end zone for 60 minutes.

Michigan's defense made up for their offense at times last season. PSU's offense was simply loaded.
 
Here's the thing...I like the way our offense is playing. I really do. Certainly there have been some headscratchers for missed assignments with our OL, but for the most part...Stanley has had alot of time to throw...way more than CJ ever had last year. Some of the formations have schemed to get guys open and really played on the strengths of the player who is the primary...think Fant running deep routes, ISM - quick in the flat for the TD in OT...etc. I've also seen more unique formations, double TE, where both run deeper routes...Fant to the corner Hockensen finds the hole in wide open middle 25 yards downfield. I've never seen that route before. If this offense stays healthy...it's going to be very very good in 6 weeks.

It's defense. Geez, after week 1 i was confident. After two more weeks, well, not so much. I know our DL is focusing on keeping mobile QB's in the pocket, but we aren't getting anywhere with pressure consistently. That's concerning. ISU ran a ton of crossing routes and so did NT...which are hard to stop if the QB can wait for them to clear the middle. Penn State will eat us up if we can't force the ball out on McSorely early.

First really big game for Stanley...National TV...lets see how deep the ice water runs in his veins. So far, he's under control and I've only seen him make 2-3 really bad throws when he's had time. I'd stop the three step drops until our OL settles. Why are we keeping that in the game plan? I think Stanley has three fumbles and and interception with the three step drop. I'd kill that segment of the offense for now.
 
This game is all going to come down to scoring and controlling PSU's skill players. They will score, but they have got to be limited. And the best way is for Iowa's offense to mount some long drives. Iowa's offense has to beat their defense and Iowa's defense has to limit the damage from PSU's offense.

Big difference between PSU and Michigan is that Michigan didn't have a player who could take it to the end zone on any missed play.

I doubt that PSU is taking Iowa lightly. I am sure they have heard of the other times they were ranked and Iowa beat them. That is also a difference between PSU and Michigan. Michigan had no reason to respect Iowa after watching the beat down Iowa took at Happy Valley.
 
WinOneThisCentury said:
Here's the thing...I like the way our offense is playing. I really do. Certainly there have been some headscratchers for missed assignments with our OL, but for the most part...Stanley has had alot of time to throw...way more than CJ ever had last year. Some of the formations have schemed to get guys open and really played on the strengths of the player who is the primary...think Fant running deep routes, ISM - quick in the flat for the TD in OT...etc. I've also seen more unique formations, double TE, where both run deeper routes...Fant to the corner Hockensen finds the hole in wide open middle 25 yards downfield. I've never seen that route before. If this offense stays healthy...it's going to be very very good in 6 weeks.

It's defense. Geez, after week 1 i was confident. After two more weeks, well, not so much. I know our DL is focusing on keeping mobile QB's in the pocket, but we aren't getting anywhere with pressure consistently. That's concerning. ISU ran a ton of crossing routes and so did NT...which are hard to stop if the QB can wait for them to clear the middle. Penn State will eat us up if we can't force the ball out on McSorely early.

First really big game for Stanley...National TV...lets see how deep the ice water runs in his veins. So far, he's under control and I've only seen him make 2-3 really bad throws when he's had time. I'd stop the three step drops until our OL settles. Why are we keeping that in the game plan? I think Stanley has three fumbles and and interception with the three step drop. I'd kill that segment of the offense for now.
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I do too. One of these times Stanley is going to connect on one of those deep-outs to a WR. Just a matter of getting experience together.
I'm hoping Brian and Parker have both been holding out much of the aggressive play-calling until B1G play starts.
 
Penn State's coaches know what often happens to teams that come to Kinnick thinking they just have to show up for the W. They won't look past us, you can count on that. Keep in mind though that PSU hasn't played ANYONE yet.
I know Iowa will be pumped up like never before this season, I know Iowa will hit them harder and play them more physically than anyone has so far this season!
Granted, they are in fact more talented & more experienced at most of the skill positions, but come Saturday night they'll know they're in a dogfight and I give the Hawks a slugger's shot at the upset!
 
Iowa 31 PsU 24.

First time they see a real team.

Night game at Kinnick. Black and Gold spirit night.

The O line has to be tired of getting pushed around. I think they man up this weekend.

I have seen some good things from the DBs. And some bad, no doubt. But Hooker starting will bring some life to that unit. They will shine.

Our defense is built to stop a team like PsU. This is what our front 7 is all about.
 
If I had to bet, I would take Hawks to cover but confidence is low.

The win over Michigan last year may be giving me false hope.

Kinda feel like we pull out a close one or we get beat by 17-21.

Since I feel like Iowa has a 35% chance of winning, felt like taking the points would be a better play.

I think we may see a more conservative approach this week and try to control the clock more. Needs to keep it in the 20s to have a chance
 
Sadly, the more I look into this game the less confident I am in Iowa's chances. Penn State's strengths on offense seem to be things Iowa is weak against: a mobile QB, a spread offense, read-option, etc. Their one weakness seems to be Offensive Line, but our defense hasn't shown the ability to get any penetration anyway.

They mostly throw to Barkley out of their backfield and to their TE Gesicki. No other player has 10 catches yet this year. As for rushing the ball, Barkley has 38 carries, McSorley has 23 carries, and no other player has more than 6 carries. One surprising stat I found is that their WR's only have 28 catches so far. Iowa's WR's have 29 catches on the season. They don't even attempt to hide what they want to do on offense and nobody has been able to stop them.

On Defense, Penn State has given up 1 touchdown all season and that was in the 4th quarter when they were up 28-6 to Pitt. Granted, they've played 3 terrible teams.

Last year vs Iowa they basically did the same thing they've been doing this year...steady doses of rushes from Barkley and McSorley, and passes to the TE. So their game plan won't change

Their senior kicker is 50% on field goals for the year, with a long of 47 yards. Maybe that's an Iowa advantage.

James Franklin is a huge tool and I'm sure he's going to want to showcase his Heisman RB to a prime time national audience. Can Iowa stop him? Signs point to no, but crazier things have happened

I would not bet the spread on this game. The O/U is currently 53, which seems high IMO.

Penn State covered up decades of child molestation
 
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Oddly enough Penn St doesn't scare me as much as Purdue or Wisconsin. We always seem to punch above our weight class when it comes to showdowns at home. Night game is an added bonus. I believe the N tx game was so ugly because players eyes were ahead to week 4. It will be a contest no doubt, but I just have a sense of tranquility over this one.
 
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WinOneThisCentury said:
I'm hoping Phil Parker was holding back special packages for this game. I'm just not liking the match up of Barkley on any of our LBs, or their TE on any of our linebackers. Penn State has so many wrinkles off that zone read and McSorely runs it as good as anyone. I will tell you...if I'm a defensive coordinator and McSorely is going to run the zone read...I have my DE hitting him every time he puts the ball in Barkley's belly, whether McSorely pulls it or not. You have to hit him and slow him down or get in his head a bit. Otherwise, it's going to be a long night.

We have to score 35 to win this game in my opinion and that may not do it.
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Yep, McSorley has to be given the impression that everything he does will result in a solid-ass hit. Play after play. Within the rules, of course.
 
mopkins said:
Sadly, the more I look into this game the less confident I am in Iowa's chances. Penn State's strengths on offense seem to be things Iowa is weak against: a mobile QB, a spread offense, read-option, etc. Their one weakness seems to be Offensive Line, but our defense hasn't shown the ability to get any penetration anyway.

They mostly throw to Barkley out of their backfield and to their TE Gesicki. No other player has 10 catches yet this year. As for rushing the ball, Barkley has 38 carries, McSorley has 23 carries, and no other player has more than 6 carries. One surprising stat I found is that their WR's only have 28 catches so far. Iowa's WR's have 29 catches on the season. They don't even attempt to hide what they want to do on offense and nobody has been able to stop them.

On Defense, Penn State has given up 1 touchdown all season and that was in the 4th quarter when they were up 28-6 to Pitt. Granted, they've played 3 terrible teams.

Last year vs Iowa they basically did the same thing they've been doing this year...steady doses of rushes from Barkley and McSorley, and passes to the TE. So their game plan won't change

Their senior kicker is 50% on field goals for the year, with a long of 47 yards. Maybe that's an Iowa advantage.

James Franklin is a huge tool and I'm sure he's going to want to showcase his Heisman RB to a prime time national audience. Can Iowa stop him? Signs point to no, but crazier things have happened

I would not bet the spread on this game. The O/U is currently 53, which seems high IMO.

Penn State covered up decades of child molestation
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Solid analysis, but the funny thing is that reading everything beyond your first paragraph makes me feel optimistic.
 
hawkeyebob62 said:
Yep, McSorley has to be given the impression that everything he does will result in a solid-ass hit. Play after play. Within the rules, of course.
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I've always wondered why teams don't light up the QB more often on read options. If he's pretending like he may or may not have the football, he should be a legal target, right? I'd tell my players to tackle him every single time. It would make an o-coordinator really nervous calling those plays time after time.
 
mopkins said:
I've always wondered why teams don't light up the QB more often on read options. If he's pretending like he may or may not have the football, he should be a legal target, right? I'd tell my players to tackle him every single time. It would make an o-coordinator really nervous calling those plays time after time.
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If it's Air Force's or Army's or Navy's QB, that's one thing. If Iowa ran an option-oriented attack, you can bet we'd need multiple QBs. Hit the P$U or O$U Qb a quarter of a second late? That's an ejection, my friend.

Remember the BS "horse-collar" call against us vs. O$U several years ago? It only happened AFTER the crowd screamed for it. Pure and simple, some teams and their players are protected, some aren't.
 
hawkeyebob62 said:
If it's Air Force's or Army's or Navy's QB, that's one thing. If Iowa ran an option-oriented attack, you can bet we'd need multiple QBs. Hit the P$U or O$U Qb a quarter of a second late? That's an ejection, my friend.

Remember the BS "horse-collar" call against us vs. O$U several years ago? It only happened AFTER the crowd screamed for it. Pure and simple, some teams and their players are protected, some aren't.
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But I mean if a player is acting like he has the ball, he should be a legal target to tackle. At least wrap up and bring to the ground every single time. I'm not sure what they would even call on the play...its not roughing the passer, its not a late hit, its not pass interference...unnecessary roughness? If you had possession of the ball and you are pretending you still have the ball, you should be allowed to be tackled...I would think.
 
Motigerhawk said:
Iowa 31 PsU 24.

First time they see a real team.

Night game at Kinnick. Black and Gold spirit night.

The O line has to be tired of getting pushed around. I think they man up this weekend.

I have seen some good things from the DBs. And some bad, no doubt. But Hooker starting will bring some life to that unit. They will shine.

Our defense is built to stop a team like PsU. This is what our front 7 is all about.
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I just read that outloud in my best enthusiastic slightly robotic Sean Connery voice. I couldn't tell if it was serious or not.
 
That line tells me that Vegas is begging you to take Iowa. Therefore PSU will likely cover. PSU -8 is where I would have guessed the spread would be.

I am not expecting Iowa to win this I am targeting OSU later in the year as the one to get.
 
trj said:
That line tells me that Vegas is begging you to take Iowa. Therefore PSU will likely cover. PSU -8 is where I would have guessed the spread would be.

I am not expecting Iowa to win this I am targeting OSU later in the year as the one to get.
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Don't they set the line with an attempt to get even money on both sides?
 
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