Penn State -13.5

BigD said:
^^^^^^^^^^ This ^^^^^^^^^^^

Penn State 37 Iowa 17
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What did we do differently last year before the Michigan game that would give anyone confidence that we could do what we did....especially in light of the PSU game the week before?

Under KF, in games at home against Top 10 teams, we have a winning record. And as I mentioned before, there's only been one game in that time that was decided against us by double digits.....the OSU juggernaut in 2006 that had something like 15 NFL players on it.

We may not win, but we aren't losing by 3 tds.....
 
InGoodCo said:
Iowa is 3-1 against top 5 teams in Kinnick over the last decade.
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What's your point? First, I referenced "this decade", meaning "the decade that started in 2010" (you know, like "the decade of the 80's/90's", etc?), not "in the last decade". Second, as I said before, most of the results were at least 7 years ago when Kinnick was a tough place to play.

Based on past results (top-10 wins in 2010 and 2016), the Hawks aren't due for another one 'til 2022.
 
hawkeyes87 said:
What's your point? First, I referenced "this decade", meaning "the decade that started in 2010" (you know, like "the decade of the 80's/90's", etc?), not "in the last decade". Second, as I said before, most of the results were at least 7 years ago when Kinnick was a tough place to play.

Based on past results (top-10 wins in 2010 and 2016), the Hawks aren't due for another one 'til 2022.
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We didn't play a top 10 team at home in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 or 2015. Also, as has been repeated on here ad nauseam....our style tends to allow "lesser" teams to play with us, but allows us to play with better teams. So quoting NDSU or NW losses at Kinnick doesn't prove or disprove that Kinnick is a tough place to play....it simply shows that our style lends itself to upsets....both by teams playing us and us playing top 10 teams. I'll let KF's record against Top 5 and Top 10 teams, both home and away, speak for itself....
 
hawkeyes87 said:
What's your point? First, I referenced "this decade", meaning "the decade that started in 2010" (you know, like "the decade of the 80's/90's", etc?), not "in the last decade". Second, as I said before, most of the results were at least 7 years ago when Kinnick was a tough place to play.

Based on past results (top-10 wins in 2010 and 2016), the Hawks aren't due for another one 'til 2022.
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If you want to alter the sample size to fit your narrative then consider this:

Iowa is 1-0 this half-decade when facing a top 5 team at home.
 
I'm hoping Phil Parker was holding back special packages for this game. I'm just not liking the match up of Barkley on any of our LBs, or their TE on any of our linebackers. Penn State has so many wrinkles off that zone read and McSorely runs it as good as anyone. I will tell you...if I'm a defensive coordinator and McSorely is going to run the zone read...I have my DE hitting him every time he puts the ball in Barkley's belly, whether McSorely pulls it or not. You have to hit him and slow him down or get in his head a bit. Otherwise, it's going to be a long night.

We have to score 35 to win this game in my opinion and that may not do it.
 
mopkins said:
If you want to alter the sample size to fit your narrative then consider this:

Iowa is 1-0 this half-decade when facing a top 5 team at home.
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Yeah, I did "alter the sample size" - to something more representative of the current state of things.
 
hawkeyes87 said:
Home and away huh? Let's go to another recent example then. How did that style do against Stanford?
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Is Stanford in the Big Ten? Is Stanford's play style similar to Big Ten Play? There's a lot more confounding variables when you are comparing a bowl matchup in California to a Big Ten game in Kinnick. Do you genuinely believe that one game can be considered a good sample or are you just being intentionally daft? Because we are talking about trends and samples here, not individual games. Obviously not all specific examples fit a trend, that's literally why we look at trends.
 
I would give PSU a two TD edge on Iowa. Iowa has a lot of talent. But it may take until November before it really shows up. If there is a team on the schedule that the players would really like to beat .....Penn State may be it. I expect a tough hard fought game.
 
SpiderRico said:
What did we do differently last year before the Michigan game that would give anyone confidence that we could do what we did....especially in light of the PSU game the week before?

Under KF, in games at home against Top 10 teams, we have a winning record. And as I mentioned before, there's only been one game in that time that was decided against us by double digits.....the OSU juggernaut in 2006 that had something like 15 NFL players on it.

We may not win, but we aren't losing by 3 tds.....
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Spidey I certainly hope you are right as I would be thrilled. I will be pulling for an upset but ole Joe isn't around anymore. Joe was a control freak just like Kirk is. Ole Joe was his own worst enemy by always playing it conservative against Kirk.

I never will understand why we don't open the offense unless we have to. How many times do we see Iowa open it up after they fall behind especially in the fourth quarter? Why can't we come out in the beginning of the first quarter with a sense of urgency like it's the fourth quarter and we are down by two scores? We all know the answer. It's the ole man and his control freak mentality. Penn State finally corrected that situation. Iowa likely never will in fact at this point it looks like the wand will just be passed on.
 
hawkeyes87 said:
Home and away huh? Let's go to another recent example then. How did that style do against Stanford?
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We get it, you hate Ferentz. But to cherry pick years or games is intellectually dishonest. Maybe you've waded into the deep end of the pool and need to swim back.

By any measure, over any time period, Ferentz's record against Top 5 and Top 10 teams stacks up against pretty much anyone at like-kind institutions. You not recognizing that makes you look foolish, not me.....
 
SpiderRico said:
We didn't play a top 10 team at home in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 or 2015. Also, as has been repeated on here ad nauseam....our style tends to allow "lesser" teams to play with us, but allows us to play with better teams. So quoting NDSU or NW losses at Kinnick doesn't prove or disprove that Kinnick is a tough place to play....it simply shows that our style lends itself to upsets....both by teams playing us and us playing top 10 teams. I'll let KF's record against Top 5 and Top 10 teams, both home and away, speak for itself....
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Could not agree with this statement anymore! The ball control style Iowa plays makes good teams look beatable and bad teams look like world beaters at times. Also tough to find out midweek you are playing your B1G opener at home under the lights vs a top 5 team? Not trying to make excuses for how they played Saturday, but they are kids and that was a mighty big carrot that was dangled in front of them. Going to be tough, but you can bet the atmosphere inside Kinnick on Saturday will be one of the all time best!

So I'm saying there's a chance....
 
mopkins said:
Iowa is undefeated over the past 5 years vs top 5 teams at home. Doesn't get much more current than that.
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You're right. But it also doesn't get much more statistically insignificant than that. If "top-5 teams at home" is only 1 of, what, 65 total games played?

Or, stepping away from stats- the key to beating Michigan was their willingness to come in and play a really conservative, vanilla game. That didn't work for them, but I don't think PSU will be that nice.

Either way, my point is that "Kinnick history" is a weak indicator.
 
hawkeyes87 said:
You're right. But it also doesn't get much more statistically insignificant than that. If "top-5 teams at home" is only 1 of, what, 65 total games played?

Or, stepping away from stats- the key to beating Michigan was their willingness to come in and play a really conservative, vanilla game. That didn't work for them, but I don't think PSU will be that nice.

Either way, my point is that "Kinnick history" is a weak indicator.
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Oh I don't care either way, there's just a lot of cherry-picking going on in this thread. Stats can be manipulated almost however you want them to.

169575-60-of-the-time-it-works-every-k5en.jpeg
 
SpiderRico said:
We get it, you hate Ferentz. But to cherry pick years or games is intellectually dishonest. Maybe you've waded into the deep end of the pool and need to swim back.

By any measure, over any time period, Ferentz's record against Top 5 and Top 10 teams stacks up against pretty much anyone at like-kind institutions. You not recognizing that makes you look foolish, not me.....
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So now you turn to arguing against things I didn't say?. Nice. I didn't say I hated Ferentz.. Don't think I mentioned him at all in this thread, for that matter. Also didn't say you, or anybody, "looked foolish".
 
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