Others have said we need ISU to have a good record....

ICHawk24 said:
That is scary.

Football teams are not actuarial tables or a deck of cards. You can't use 130 years of Hawkeye data to project future playoff chances.

Holy shit it is scary that you get paid for this dribble.
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Why is it scary that I get paid to calculate numbers and statistics? Did I not apply the formula correctly?

Somebody asked me for the odds, genius. I said that teams are different every year and there are too many variables to do predictive analytics on football teams. Apparently, you can't read or add.
 
cincyhawk said:
Iowa went undefeated and won the conference in 1921 and 1922. They've never gone undefeated and won the conference again. They have played football for 130 years. 2 / 130 = .015 = P(A).

The CFP has been played five times, so whoops on the .25, it's actually .20. In those 5 times, 3 undefeated P5/ND teams has occurred once, so 1 / 5 = .20 = P(B).

1 - loss Big ten champs have made it in 2 / 5 times, so that's actually 2 / 5 = .4 = P(C).

The probability of any two independent events is equal to the probability of event A and the probability of event B occurring. You get this by multiplying P(A) by P(B). P(A) AND P(B) = P(A) x P(B).

Multiplication is associative. This means that X x Y x Z = (X x Y) x Z = X x (Y x Z). This means that the probability of 3 independent events occurring simultaneously is P(A) AND P(B) AND P(C) is P(A) x P(B) x P(C). Thus, to get the chance that op asked fo we multiply .15 x .2 x .4 = .012.

The percentage formula is X x 100. Thus a 1.2% chance of Iowa being undefeated and being a Big Ten Champ; three other P5/ND being undefeated; and a Big Ten Team making the playoffs.

We can get even more detailed, since we can independently calculate the odds of Iowa going undefeated this year with partial knowledge of being 4 - 0 and how the seasons ended before. Iowa went undefeated twice, and didn't a bunch of other times (6 I think, it would take some digging). Let's assume 8 times, so 2 / 8 = .25. That gets us to a 2% chance of going undefeated and winning the playoffs.

We could look at all the teams in our conference and figure out the dependent probability of going undefeated, since there can be only one, and get a really accurate estimate, but that's just too much work. I'll leave it at 1.5%.

@Fryowa.

I do data analytics for a living.
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^^THIS^^!
 
cincyhawk said:
Iowa went undefeated and won the conference in 1921 and 1922. They've never gone undefeated and won the conference again. They have played football for 130 years. 2 / 130 = .015 = P(A).

The CFP has been played five times, so whoops on the .25, it's actually .20. In those 5 times, 3 undefeated P5/ND teams has occurred once, so 1 / 5 = .20 = P(B).

1 - loss Big ten champs have made it in 2 / 5 times, so that's actually 2 / 5 = .4 = P(C).

The probability of any two independent events is equal to the probability of event A and the probability of event B occurring. You get this by multiplying P(A) by P(B). P(A) AND P(B) = P(A) x P(B).

Multiplication is associative. This means that X x Y x Z = (X x Y) x Z = X x (Y x Z). This means that the probability of 3 independent events occurring simultaneously is P(A) AND P(B) AND P(C) is P(A) x P(B) x P(C). Thus, to get the chance that op asked fo we multiply .15 x .2 x .4 = .012.

The percentage formula is X x 100. Thus a 1.2% chance of Iowa being undefeated and being a Big Ten Champ; three other P5/ND being undefeated; and a Big Ten Team making the playoffs.

We can get even more detailed, since we can independently calculate the odds of Iowa going undefeated this year with partial knowledge of being 4 - 0 and how the seasons ended before. Iowa went undefeated twice, and didn't a bunch of other times (6 I think, it would take some digging). Let's assume 8 times, so 2 / 8 = .25. That gets us to a 2% chance of going undefeated and winning the playoffs.

We could look at all the teams in our conference and figure out the dependent probability of going undefeated, since there can be only one, and get a really accurate estimate, but that's just too much work. I'll leave it at 1.5%.

@Fryowa.

I do data analytics for a living.
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I don't mind being a numbers junkie myself. Back in the day I read every Bill James baseball book I could get my hands on.

We were watching a game show one afternoon in the dorms while waiting for the cafeteria to open for dinner. It was one of those shows where the contestant could win a new car if he chose the key that would start it. One guy argued that if there were five cars he had a one in five chance to win. Another argued that he had to pick the right key, which was one in five, before he had the one in five chance to start the car, therefore only creating a one in twenty-five chance. Another guy in the room, an actuarial science major, actually (or actuarily) called his TA. The TA explained that if all five keys were guaranteed to start a car, it was indeed one in five. The only way it could be one in twenty five were if four of the five keys were dummies.

By then it was time to go down and eat supper. All the numbers talk had made me hungry for those good ol Currier Hall sloppy joes, or whatever it was that night.

Bill James, by the way, got his start crunching numbers, creating sabremetric formulas, and reading baseball history books as a way to pass the time when he was a night watchman at some factory in Kansas. When he put out his annual Baseball Abstract books all those years, he was by then married and had kids but would still do much of his work into the wee hours of the morning, long after everyone went to bed.

How many of you out there crammed for your exams the same way?
 
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ICHawk24 said:
I guarantee an undefeated Iowa makes the CFP.
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Totally agree. An undefeated Iowa makes the CFP. The problem is getting a 1 loss B1G champion Iowa picked over a 1 loss ND or 1 loss SEC runner up, or even non division winner. Say LSU only loses to Bama, and Bama wins the SEC and goes undefeated. No way, no how is Iowa gonna go over LSU in that scenario.
 
deanvogs said:
Totally agree. An undefeated Iowa makes the CFP. The problem is getting a 1 loss B1G champion Iowa picked over a 1 loss ND or 1 loss SEC runner up, or even non division winner. Say LSU only loses to Bama, and Bama wins the SEC and goes undefeated. No way, no how is Iowa gonna go over LSU in that scenario.
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Hypothetically, say Iowa wins out, and PSU beats OSU, and OSU beats Wisconsin. Iowa beats PSU in the BTT game. Does Iowa still get in over 1 loss LSU?
 
cincyhawk said:
Hypothetically, say Iowa wins out, and PSU beats OSU, and OSU beats Wisconsin. Iowa beats PSU in the BTT game. Does Iowa still get in over 1 loss LSU?
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If Iowa is undefeated, yes. I already said that an undefeated Iowa gets in.
 
deanvogs said:
The problem is getting a 1 loss B1G champion Iowa picked over a 1 loss ND or 1 loss SEC runner up, or even non division winner. Say LSU only loses to Bama, and Bama wins the SEC and goes undefeated. No way, no how is Iowa gonna go over LSU in that scenario.
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That would suck for the Hawks, but it would be a great sign for the cfp system. LSU would likely be the more deserving team.

Assuming Iowa's 1 loss was at Wisky (because it's the most likely L at this point), they'd have quality W's over Michigan, Penn St, and probably Ohio State.

LSU would have quality W's over Texas, Florida, Auburn, & Texas A&M.

Tying things back to the OP, that would mean the Hawks were hurt by not playing as strong a non-con as LSU.

Like I said, as an Iowa fan I'd be sad, but as a cfb fan I'd be, well, not as sad.
 
We played ISU, we beat them. Can we stop talking about them until we have to play them again.

It's like a wart. Once you get it removed...forget about it, unless it comes back.
 
cincyhawk said:
Why is it scary that I get paid to calculate numbers and statistics? Did I not apply the formula correctly?

Somebody asked me for the odds, genius. I said that teams are different every year and there are too many variables to do predictive analytics on football teams. Apparently, you can't read or add.
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My question is, which team has a better chance of getting in, a 2-loss Nebraska or a 2-loss ISU, assuming they both run the table and win their CCG.
 
cincyhawk said:
Dude, it's highly unlikely Iowa makes the playoffs. Be prepared to hear the arguments, because they're coming if we go undefeated.
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No undefeated B1G team misses the CFP. Ever.

Conversely, Alabama MUST lose TWICE--and that's WITH there being at least one undefeated team--before they can be considered "not-quite-a-lock". At least if you believe E$ecPN and/or Finebaum.
 
cincyhawk said:
Hypothetically, say Iowa wins out, and PSU beats OSU, and OSU beats Wisconsin. Iowa beats PSU in the BTT game. Does Iowa still get in over 1 loss LSU?
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Well it depends on what type of loss LSU has. If LSU's 1 loss is in the SEC Champ game in a close game against Georgia then that means they beat Bama. I could see them getting in ahead of Iowa. If Georgia blew them out in the SEC Champ game then maybe undefeated Iowa gets in.

If LSU's only loss is to bama in a close game they might take LSU unless the SEC east champs only loss is in the SEC Champ game, say a 12-1 Georgia team.

Personally if Iowa is 13-0 with this schedule and beating probably OSU in the Big title game there really is almost 100% chance they are in the cfp.
 
The idea that an undefeated Iowa team would miss the CFB playoffs is laughable. The 2015 team absolutely would have made the playoffs had they stopped MSU on 4th and goal, and that team had a WEAK schedule.

If this team goes undefeated (highly unlikely, of coure), they will have beaten Mich and Wisc on the road, PSU at home, and OSU at a neutral site. Their schedule was predicted to be somewhere between top 10 and top 37 hardest in the preseason (this one right in between). Things are looking easier now that NW and Nebraska seem to be worse than predicted, but this is still easily a top-half P5 SOS.
 
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