OT: Derecho!

[MelroseHawkins]

Used to be a powerlineman, and did power transmission for several windfarms.

Those turbines aren't going anywhere. The generators (the part on top of the actual tower with the rotating assembly) are designed to withstand hurricane force winds. The Zond and Vestas turbines we built line for had a survival wind speed of 165 mph, and that's the speed they'll take and still remain operable afterwards, not the speed at which they get destroyed. The towers aren't really rated like that (other than theoretically) because there aren't winds in North America (or the rest of the world) that get high enough to blow them over unless there was a manufacturing or installation defect. Harvey was a category 4 storm and in Texas almost all of the turbines were operating afterwards and didn't even need any maintenance or repairs. Nothing blew over. A direct hit from a tornado can (and does) take blades off, but the tower still stands up. And those are highly localized events. There are some YouTube videos showing tornado hits.

The foundations are also comically fucking huge. In Iowa Zond/Vestas foundations were 75 ft in diameter and roughly 14 ft thick (they taper as you go out, basically they're a huge dome of solid concrete and rebar), and they're buried under several feet of soil.

You would need sustained winds approaching 200 mph and the help of a bad foundation or tower to knock one down or snap blades. That ain't happening in Iowa.

Ok power man. Answer a question that often times has popped into my head. When going past wind farms, how come some are rotating while others are not when they look to be facing the same direction? That's always puzzled me.

Also, is the wind energy really that profitable compared to the overhead and maintenance of them? Wondered that as well.

 

[Fryowa]

Ok power man. Answer a question that often times has popped into my head. When going past wind farms, how come some are rotating while others are not when they look to be facing the same direction? That's always puzzled me.

Also, is the wind energy really that profitable compared to the overhead and maintenance of them? Wondered that as well.

There's a few reasons they stop. When the wind speed is too high they shut down, could also be for maintenance or the unit is out of service. The blades rotate on the hub just like an airplane prop, so the computer feathers them to be straight into the wind and it goes straight by without making them rotate. On a super windy day you'll see whole wind farms stopped. Each generator has a little mini weather station on top of it reading wind speed and direction. I never got into the control center part of it, but I believe the techs can manually manipulate individual windmills and sections of them from the control building.

They face the same direction because a side wind would put a pretty big load on the blades and it's hard on the brakes. There's a meter on top of the generator that tells the computer to keep the hub facing into the wind even when it's shut down.

As far as profitability I don't know the financials. I do know that when I was in that line of work wind generation was way smaller of an industry. There was a contingent of folks opposed to wind power because the creation of a windmill created more greenhouse emissions than it would save in its life span (mining, transporting, and converting the raw materials for the tower and generator, electricity used in it's manufacture, transportation by semi to the construction site, installation, etc.). One thing worth noting is that it's an increasing ROI. As more "clean" energy is created by wind/solar, more of that can be used to make more windmills, i.e., the greenhouse emissions per windmill or solar panel created get smaller as a percentage. There's a lot of philosophical debate that goes on about whether it's truly clean energy.

 

[tweeterhawk]

Used to be a powerlineman, and did power transmission for several windfarms.

Those turbines aren't going anywhere. The generators (the part on top of the actual tower with the rotating assembly) are designed to withstand hurricane force winds. The Zond and Vestas turbines we built line for had a survival wind speed of 165 mph, and that's the speed they'll take and still remain operable afterwards, not the speed at which they get destroyed. The towers aren't really rated like that (other than theoretically) because there aren't winds in North America (or the rest of the world) that get high enough to blow them over unless there was a manufacturing or installation defect. Harvey was a category 4 storm and in Texas almost all of the turbines were operating afterwards and didn't even need any maintenance or repairs. Nothing blew over. A direct hit from a tornado can (and does) take blades off, but the tower still stands up. And those are highly localized events. There are some YouTube videos showing tornado hits.

The foundations are also comically fucking huge. In Iowa Zond/Vestas foundations were 75 ft in diameter and roughly 14 ft thick (they taper as you go out, basically they're a huge dome of solid concrete and rebar), and they're buried under several feet of soil.

You would need sustained winds approaching 200 mph and the help of a bad foundation or tower to knock one down or snap blades. That ain't happening in Iowa.

Very interesting. Had no idea the concrete foot was that size. When they were installing the wind farms around Storm Lake we were able to get next to the towers, blades and control units that go on top. You’re right, they’re yuge. You have no concept seeing them from the highway or a distance.

A couple questions:

-- Is there a depreciation or obsolescence schedule for these? One of my concerns is that XX years down the road maintenance and replacement costs will become so high that they exceed the buy-back from the utility systems and these will simply be abandoned, much like the old windmills on family farms. Old windmills can be picturesque and make for great rural landscape photos. Wind turbines not so much.

-- I've long argued, perhaps incorrectly, that wind turbines don't reduce the need for additional power generation. If the weather suddenly turns calm in a region for days, significantly reducing output from wind farms, there will need to be an alternative source of power generation, such as coal, gas, propane, nuclear, etc., particularly during times of high demand, such as extreme hot spells and the high demand for air conditioning. I do know utilities around the country have the ability to shed demand and share supply, so perhaps that becomes less of a concern.

Again, your insider's perspective is interesting. Thanks for sharing.

 

[okeefe4prez]

-- Is there a depreciation or obsolescence schedule for these? One of my concerns is that XX years down the road maintenance and replacement costs will become so high that it exceed the buy-back from the utility systems and these will simply be abandoned, much like the old windmills on family farms. Old windmills can be picturesque and make for great rural landscape photos. Wind turbines not so much.

My dad got approached about putting some on our family's ground. The person pushing it said "yeah, this is blah blah blah energy company and they have x billion in assets...blah blah blah." So I looked at the contract and the counterparty was something like "Super Bankruptcy Remote Insolvent Wind Generation Company IV, LLC" and my old man and I called their lawyer who repeated the same shit about how strong the power company is. The contract had a takedown provision like 25 years in the future and I insisted that either (a) the power company and not this company I've never heard of be the contracting party or (b) the power company give us a written guarantee of performance. Suffice it to say there ain't any turbines on our family's ground.

I don't have a philosophical objection to wind power or anything, but I have a really bad feeling that farmers are going to get completely fucked when those things hit end of life.

 

[tweeterhawk]

I don't have a philosophical objection to wind power or anything, but I have a really bad feeling that farmers are going to get completely fucked when those things hit end of life.

Yup. And the beautiful, pastoral Iowa landscape will be blighted with these huge fucking rusting, non-operable monstrosities that will require dynamite to remove and return the land to crops plus the costs of hauling all of it away. On the plus side those control units for a while could become nesting sites for raptors.

 

[Fryowa]

My dad got approached about putting some on our family's ground. The person pushing it said "yeah, this is blah blah blah energy company and they have x billion in assets...blah blah blah." So I looked at the contract and the counterparty was something like "Super Bankruptcy Remote Insolvent Wind Generation Company IV, LLC" and my old man and I called their lawyer who repeated the same shit about how strong the power company is. The contract had a takedown provision like 25 years in the future and I insisted that either (a) the power company and not this company I've never heard of be the contracting party or (b) the power company give us a written guarantee of performance. Suffice it to say there ain't any turbines on our family's ground.

I don't have a philosophical objection to wind power or anything, but I have a really bad feeling that farmers are going to get completely fucked when those things hit end of life.

Some of that is dependent on the region. In my six county area (and I'm assuming most counties in Iowa), there are two options. The power company either has to pay you upfront for future removal costs which none ever do, or the utility is required to maintain a fund that pays for dismantling when the time comes. That's a legal requirement by the county before they can zone/build. The escrow money is the best option because it protects the landowner, but it also gives the utility the chance to put a new generator on an existing tower when the current one becomes obsolete (and upon renewing the lease). Years ago when I was in the trade the leases were 25 years in my area.

 

[Fryowa]

Yup. And the beautiful, pastoral Iowa landscape will be blighted with these huge fucking rusting, non-operable monstrosities that will require dynamite to remove and return the land to crops plus the costs of hauling all of it away

Nah. They make the utilities too much money. It's in their best interest to maintain them and retrofit with better generators when the current ones go tits up.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Some of that is dependent on the region. In my six county area (and I'm assuming most counties in Iowa), there are two options. The power company either has to pay you upfront for future removal costs which none ever do, or the utility is required to maintain a fund that pays for dismantling when the time comes. That's a legal requirement by the county before they can zone/build. The escrow money is the best option because it protects the landowner, but it also gives the utility the chance to put a new generator on an existing tower when the current one becomes obsolete (and upon renewing the lease). Years ago when I was in the trade the leases were 25 years in my area.

I'mma go out on a limb here and guess that the escrow that will be invested in 0.001% Treasuries for 25 years ain't gonna keep up with inflation and the fund will go tits up. If in those counties it is actually the utility and not some shit unfunded LLC they can just dick the utility customers in a rate case and recover the funding shortfall.

 

[Fryowa]

-- I've long argued, perhaps incorrectly, that wind turbines don't reduce the need for additional power generation. If the weather suddenly turns calm in a region for days, significantly reducing output from wind farms, there will need to be an alternative source of power generation, such as coal, gas, propane, nuclear, etc., particularly during times of high demand, such as extreme hot spells and the high demand for air conditioning. I do know utilities around the country have the ability to shed demand and share supply, so perhaps that becomes less of a concern.

Again, your insider's perspective is interesting. Thanks for sharing.

The science that goes into placing wind farms is pretty crazy.they look random, but it's not. Utilities don't put wind farms where it isn't blowing constantly, and northern Iowa is always windy. We very, very rarely get a calm day here, and I think we lose perspective on it. When I'd visit a buddy in Gettysburg PA I'd always notice that the wind just never blew out there. I was used to 10-15 everyday, and that would be a rare anomaly there. There are some pretty cool maps online showing average wind speeds, Iowa is one of the windiest places in the country. Bottom line though, the utility is out to make money and they wouldn't put something there that would be idle even a little bit.

Electricity is a funny commodity. Most people don't realize it, but almost all of the wind power in Iowa is sold to other states/utilities rather than being used here. Iowa has way more capacity than demand even without windmills. People argue all the time that with the surplus increasing all the time as more wind farms go up, their utility bills should go down. Doesn't work that way. It isn't like all of a sudden we have way more gas than we need so we can charge people $0.50 per gallon.. It's use it or lose it and Alliant/MidAmerican are just taking in the cash and reinvesting it in more infrastructure. The real benefit to wind power will be when the majority of generation is done without coal or natural gas. It's going to take generations to get there though. **I'm going to throw out a comment here that people might disagree with...nuclear power on a large scale would be the cleanest, most efficient, and most reliable energy source with current science. People hear the word nuclear and right away think Chernobyl, but it's orders of magnitude safer and cleaner than public perception gives it credit for. It has a capacity factor of 93% (in the US), the next most efficient source is natural gas at around 57% But I digress...different topic for a different day...

Electric power isn't something that you harvest and store to use whenever you want. The entire country is one huge pot that everything goes into and it's all done by accountants on paper. A farmer can buy a round bale in Sioux City and haul it to Des Moines to feed his cattle, and he knows that the bale was made in SC and utilized in DM. You can't go buy a megawatt from California and take it to Utah to use it to keep your sporting goods store lit up. The grid is all interconnected everywhere and the transactions just happen on paper according to output and usage of the buyer/seller. The grid is sectionalized, and different areas have different limitations and demands, but in real terms the whole thing is one big connected web from coast to coast.

 

[Fryowa]

I'mma go out on a limb here and guess that the escrow that will be invested in 0.001% Treasuries for 25 years ain't gonna keep up with inflation and the fund will go tits up. If in those counties it is actually the utility and not some shit unfunded LLC they can just dick the utility customers in a rate case and recover the funding shortfall.

I can't say for sure because I'm not a party to either side, but I think you're underestimating the financial scruples of the rural, largely Dutch farming community up here. These are also the folks that are on county boards and agricultural law/accounting is a huge industry here.

I'd be very surprised if 1) inflation wasn't generously protected, and 2) if they actually ever use the fund at all. MidAmerican/Alliant would be stupid to walk away and not renew a lease when all they have to do in 25 years is put a new generator on top. They've already done the engineering work, constructed the hard part (footings and towers), and established relationships with landowners and county-level government.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I can't say for sure because I'm not a party to either side, but I think you're underestimating the financial scruples of the rural, largely Dutch farming community up here. These are also the folks that are on county boards and agricultural law/accounting is a huge industry here.

I'd be very surprised if 1) inflation wasn't generously protected, and 2) if they actually ever use the fund at all. MidAmerican/Alliant would be stupid to walk away and not renew a lease when all they have to do in 25 years is put a new generator on top. They've already done the engineering work, constructed the hard part (footings and towers), and established relationships with landowners and county-level government.

Farmers getting totally fucked by moneyed interests on a transaction that seemingly can't go tits up is a tale as old as time, my friend. I don't know for a fact, but I would guess that a shitload of the wind power generated in Iowa gets sold into the grid to virtue signalling towns like Evanston, Illinois so they can pat themselves on the back for being virtuous liberals who use "100% renewable power." That shit commands a hefty premium. I remember my power bill went way the F up when they passed that mandate. Now maybe there is an infinite supply of towns like that, but the whole model seems pretty reliant on there being a limitless pool of people who will pay well above market rates for power for the foreseeable future and 25 years is a LONG time (remember 1995?). Maybe there are. But back to my original point, the actual utility was not on the hook for the hardware, which is my issue with it. I agree that the sunk cost should create an incentive for them to come back, but the company will have already amortized the cost of the pad and tower and carry it as 0 on its books. And who the hell knows what Uncle Sugar will be doing in 25 years? They might make it highly profitable for the utilities to just build new, which would be stupid, but Uncle Sug isn't known for being smart.

 

[Fryowa]

I don't know for a fact, but I would guess that a shitload of the wind power generated in Iowa gets sold into the grid ...

Almost all of it does.

 

[tweeterhawk]

Farmers getting totally fucked by moneyed interests on a transaction that seemingly can't go tits up is a tale as old as time, my friend. I don't know for a fact, but I would guess that a shitload of the wind power generated in Iowa gets sold into the grid to virtue signalling towns like Evanston, Illinois so they can pat themselves on the back for being virtuous liberals who use "100% renewable power." That shit commands a hefty premium. I remember my power bill went way the F up when they passed that mandate. Now maybe there is an infinite supply of towns like that, but the whole model seems pretty reliant on there being a limitless pool of people who will pay well above market rates for power for the foreseeable future and 25 years is a LONG time (remember 1995?). Maybe there are. But back to my original point, the actual utility was not on the hook for the hardware, which is my issue with it. I agree that the sunk cost should create an incentive for them to come back, but the company will have already amortized the cost of the pad and tower and carry it as 0 on its books. And who the hell knows what Uncle Sugar will be doing in 25 years? They might make it highly profitable for the utilities to just build new, which would be stupid, but Uncle Sug isn't known for being smart.

Wind farms strike me as mausoleums stuck in the middle of corn and bean fields. Beauceau bucks were sunk into construction of the infrastructure with the promise that as more wealthy people achieved room temperature their loved ones would invest majorly in giving beloved Mom or Dad a nice, quiet, temperature-controlled eternal resting place where the children and grandkids could come in future years to pay homage and to leave flowers, etc. Eventually the money that built the crypts and maintained the property runs out, the owning corporation or LLC goes belly-up and pretty soon Brother or Sister are looking to local Uncle Gov to take it over and pay for the repairs and upkeep.

I could easily see the same thing happening to turbine farms in 20-25 years.

 

[HawkGold]

Ok power man. Answer a question that often times has popped into my head. When going past wind farms, how come some are rotating while others are not when they look to be facing the same direction? That's always puzzled me.

Also, is the wind energy really that profitable compared to the overhead and maintenance of them? Wondered that as well.

The companies should be required to put up decommissioning in escrow. They make written promises 50 years in advance.

 

[Fryowa]

The companies should be required to put up decommissioning in escrow. They make written promises 50 years in advance.

Did you not read any of the posts after that one?

 

[HawkGold]

Z

Did you not read any of the posts after that one?

With you threads become a food of letters of the alphabet though insults are your most clear words puke.

 

[Fryowa]

Z


With you threads become a food of letters of the alphabet though insults are your most clear words puke.

It's not my fault you have no attention span.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

It's not my fault you have no attention span.

Lol. Made me chuckle.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

My dad got approached about putting some on our family's ground. The person pushing it said "yeah, this is blah blah blah energy company and they have x billion in assets...blah blah blah." So I looked at the contract and the counterparty was something like "Super Bankruptcy Remote Insolvent Wind Generation Company IV, LLC" and my old man and I called their lawyer who repeated the same shit about how strong the power company is. The contract had a takedown provision like 25 years in the future and I insisted that either (a) the power company and not this company I've never heard of be the contracting party or (b) the power company give us a written guarantee of performance. Suffice it to say there ain't any turbines on our family's ground.

I don't have a philosophical objection to wind power or anything, but I have a really bad feeling that farmers are going to get completely fucked when those things hit end of life.

Yea, this has colossal train wreck written all over it.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Some of that is dependent on the region. In my six county area (and I'm assuming most counties in Iowa), there are two options. The power company either has to pay you upfront for future removal costs which none ever do, or the utility is required to maintain a fund that pays for dismantling when the time comes. That's a legal requirement by the county before they can zone/build. The escrow money is the best option because it protects the landowner, but it also gives the utility the chance to put a new generator on an existing tower when the current one becomes obsolete (and upon renewing the lease). Years ago when I was in the trade the leases were 25 years in my area.

What do one of those damn things cost now from producing them to getting them up and running? What is each one worth?