Yesterday’s game is why I couldn’t get hyped about Lester, as innovative as he might be on his own. As long as KF is in charge, the scheme isn’t going to change. I don’t fault Lester for this, I believe very much that if he were allowed to manage the scheme (which is beyond just the playbook), you’d see new approaches to situations. It’s pretty obvious Lester has tight constraints on what he’s allowed to do, and it’s why today didn’t look any different than what we’ve seen in the past. I don’t blame him for taking the job and toeing the line. For that kind of money I sure would.
Also…
There was no reason to go for two when we did. Momentum was good at the time. That decision isn’t without a downside as we saw yesterday. I’m never a fan of going for two unless it’s needed to tie the game as time runs out. Ever. It’s like saying you should bet more at a single hand of Blackjack because you could win more, even though the house has the odds.
It’s a purely emotional play and ignores rational thinking.
The success rate of 2 pt conversions in college the past 3 years (arbitrary sample size) is right at 40%. The PAT success rate is 96%. You can do the math on the expected value.