Official 2020 Big Ten Champs vs. What The Hell Is A DePaul Thread

[NikeHawk21]

We are obviously worse athletically this year than last.

We are basically what we were last year without Cook. That is a big step back athletically, but I guess that is all in the eye of the beholder.

Edit. I forgot Evelyn as well who played some good defense last night and showed some athleticism. Thinking his minutes should go up.

Toussaint is a significant upgrade athletically for what we’ve had in the backcourt last year, or really ever in the Fran era. Now he’s not ready to make an impact like Cook just yet that I understand. The nice thing is he will defend guards whereas Cook only defended forwards and although he was athletic that wasn’t really his forte (defense).

 

[seepig]

Moss would’ve just added to the turnover no defense fest

LOLOLOL Fair Point but at least your Senior leader would've been in charge of the shit show.

 

[seepig]

Several things seem to be at play here after watching that beat down at home by DePaul:
We are slow and getting slower
Fran has assembled the best bench talent I've ever seen! Problem is he hasn't assembled any starting talent! (save Joltin Joe W.)
AND we value the ball like we always do (Fran's magnificent 20 TO's per game)
AND He continues to lose players in recruiting

Welcome to year 10!

 

[racerhawk]

I turned it off early in the 2nd half. I said to my wife, "I can't do this shit again this season, let's go to bed" ....and she says "3 days ago you said you thought they might be pretty decent" ....and I said " I was definitely wrong, I thought we had a good coach, I was definitely wrong about that"......

Like I've said a million times on here, Fran is coaching for his job every season with me. NCAA - survive, anything less I want him out. I know it's just one game, but it's impossible for me to think NCAA after watching that. I think this team could lose 20 games after watching that. They could. If it's that bad and it continues Fran will have lost me way before the end of the year. I hope I am wrong, but 11.11.19 is the day I officially turned on Fran. I still want him to win, I will still cheer on Iowa, but I no longer think it's possible.

I'm with you. I want him to succeed but this is unacceptable. So unprepared.

Three people will be showing up to CHA for some of these games.

 

[InGoodCo]

Listened to Haluska yesterday on the All Hawks deal and he was at the game. He said he was pretty appalled by the attendance. He said it was much less then half full. You keep telling me that Iowa can't afford to get rid of that if things don't pick up. Fran needs to win or it's gonna be a lot quicker then people think IMO. This is a bidness. If things go south, the echo chamber that Fran needs to be gone is gonna be deafening.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Listened to Haluska yesterday on the All Hawks deal and he was at the game. He said he was pretty appalled by the attendance. He said it was much less then half full. You keep telling me that Iowa can't afford to get rid of that if things don't pick up. Fran needs to win or it's gonna be a lot quicker then people think IMO. This is a bidness. If things go south, the echo chamber that Fran needs to be gone is gonna be deafening.

It was an early season game on a Monday night and there was a snow storm in Iowa that day. Yes it was bad, but not totally wtf status.

I understand your logic but what you are saying is pure speculation. I don’t know enough to know one way or the other either.

Let me ask you this. How much revenue do you think Iowa basketball makes at Carver compared to from the TV deals? My guess is it’s about 75/25 TV to Carver. Again just a wild guess but that’s what I would think. So is whoever is in charge going to be that concerned about a slight attendance decline?

Now you take a slight attendance decline vs. a $9million (Or whatever it is) dollar buyout, then going to hire a new coach who you are going to have to pay competitively, plus the likelihood that said coach will probably struggle for a year or two while getting his guys.

It’s just not that simple.

 

[InGoodCo]

It was an early season game on a Monday night and there was a snow storm in Iowa that day. Yes it was bad, but not totally wtf status.

I understand your logic but what you are saying is pure speculation. I don’t know enough to know one way or the other either.

Let me ask you this. How much revenue do you think Iowa basketball makes at Carver compared to from the TV deals? My guess is it’s about 75/25 TV to Carver. Again just a wild guess but that’s what I would think. So is whoever is in charge going to be that concerned about a slight attendance decline?

Now you take a slight attendance decline vs. a $9million (Or whatever it is) dollar buyout, then going to hire a new coach who you are going to have to pay competitively, plus the likelihood that said coach will probably struggle for a year or two while getting his guys.

It’s just not that simple.

It really is that simple tho. It's basic business investment and principals. Yes, the TV revenue dwarfs the home game revenue that Iowa can make. So what? It's still there for the taking and they have to know the only way for that to change is the product on the court. Iowa is coming off a season they spent 3/4's of it in the top 25. It should be on the uptick. I think there's less interests in the program from a competitive stand point then there has been at any point in the last decade. More people are interested in Iowa hoops at this point to see just how bad it can get before they do something about it. That's the majority. People like you and I, we're the minority at this point. You can see that from the numbers.

It has to drive everyone in that department nuts that games are attended like they are. Being part of a the team that puts on the production for a team that is a loser and you know it is not fun. I mean that from the marketing and staff outside the team stand point. They have goals to hit too and it's all measured. Iowa still invests a lot of money into their program. They just built the new facility. They brought in the suite seats, they brought in a new scoreboard. They want a return on that investment I am sure. I don't know what business model wouldn't.

I'm not saying Iowa will fire Fran if they have a bad season, but it wouldn't be shocking either. His off the court stuff, dwindling attendance (that had already dwindled) and if his team performs at the 17/18 level, I wouldn't put it off the table either- ya just can't when the bottom line is money. The buy out is there to protect Iowa too should it get bad. They signed it, they'll pay it if things go bad.

That's just my take. You're entitled to disagree. It's way ahead of things tho. It's not that bad now....but I could see Iowa making a change quickly if it does. It would behoove them to and that writing will be on the wall - again, if things go bad. I'm jumping the gun... just like I've defended against on this site a zillion times. Iowa can afford to buy out Fran and then some. A new coach brings new life, new hope, new culture, new interests and would breath new life. Fran is a lightning rod and polarizing. Enough so that a quick hook might rejuvenate the base... Fran needs to win, badly IMO, his job is on the line.

 

[NikeHawk21]

It really is that simple tho. It's basic business investment and principals. Yes, the TV revenue dwarfs the home game revenue that Iowa can make. So what? It's still there for the taking and they have to know the only way for that to change is the product on the court. Iowa is coming off a season they spent 3/4's of it in the top 25. It should be on the uptick. I think there's less interests in the program from a competitive stand point then there has been at any point in the last decade. More people are interested in Iowa hoops at this point to see just how bad it can get before they do something about it. That's the majority. People like you and I, we're the minority at this point. You can see that from the numbers.

It has to drive everyone in that department nuts that games are attended like they are. Being part of a the team that puts on the production for a team that is a loser and you know it is not fun. I mean that from the marketing and staff outside the team stand point. They have goals to hit too and it's all measured. Iowa still invests a lot of money into their program. They just built the new facility. They brought in the suite seats, they brought in a new scoreboard. They want a return on that investment I am sure. I don't know what business model wouldn't.

I'm not saying Iowa will fire Fran if they have a bad season, but it wouldn't be shocking either. His off the court stuff, dwindling attendance (that had already dwindled) and if his team performs at the 17/18 level, I wouldn't put it off the table either- ya just can't when the bottom line is money. The buy out is there to protect Iowa too should it get bad. They signed it, they'll pay it if things go bad.

That's just my take. You're entitled to disagree. It's way ahead of things tho. It's not that bad now....but I could see Iowa making a change quickly if it does. It would behoove them to and that writing will be on the wall - again, if things go bad. I'm jumping the gun... just like I've defended against on this site a zillion times. Iowa can afford to buy out Fran and then some. A new coach brings new life, new hope, new culture, new interests and would breath new life. Fran is a lightning rod and polarizing. Enough so that a quick hook might rejuvenate the base... Fran needs to win, badly IMO, his job is on the line.

I admire your passion about the issue and I really don’t care for a long argument on it.

Iowa CAN afford to pay Fran’s buyout just like they CAN afford to offer Bob Stoops whatever he wants to come coach Iowa Football. But can and will are two different things.

Iowa has always had attendance issues at Carver. The parking sucks and Iowa City just doesn’t have the populous that many of the other B1G cities do. Again it was an early season Monday night game the day of a snowstorm. I’m not sure that fan interest is as low as you say because of that one day. Heck it was only about 8 months ago that Iowa was in overtime playing with a chance to go to the sweet 16.

I’m not saying I’m opposed to firing Fran I just don’t think the powers that be have the same thought process as what you are pitching.

 

[InGoodCo]

I admire your passion about the issue and I really don’t care for a long argument on it.

Iowa CAN afford to pay Fran’s buyout just like they CAN afford to offer Bob Stoops whatever he wants to come coach Iowa Football. But can and will are two different things.

Iowa has always had attendance issues at Carver. The parking sucks and Iowa City just doesn’t have the populous that many of the other B1G cities do. Again it was an early season Monday night game the day of a snowstorm. I’m not sure that fan interest is as low as you say because of that one day. Heck it was only about 8 months ago that Iowa was in overtime playing with a chance to go to the sweet 16.

I’m not saying I’m opposed to firing Fran I just don’t think the powers that be have the same thought process as what you are pitching.

I hear what you're saying and I have no passion about this at all. It's honest to god just basic dollars and cents. I know you know that too, so it's not like I am trying to explain that to you. I think the administration looks far closer at that then you are giving them credit for. At least one would hope that they run their business exactly like every other business in the world. For profit. For maximizing profit and for getting every penny it can get.

I wish I could share your sentiment about it just being 1 game on a Monday night when it was snowy. I've unfortunately watched this program and seen the empty seats for the last 20 years. It unfortunately CAN get worse. It did with Lick and it was a quick hook. 3 seasons is quick. Different scenarios I know. But couple some of Fran's other issues, the fan base and their pulse on the future is going to be important to Iowa from a business stand point.

They do look at last year as a success. I am positive of it. But if you follow it up with a cellar type of season, that gets erased pretty quickly in everyone's mind.

Just my opinion. I am sure you are probably more on the right side of this due to the history of operations .... i just think a bad year for Fran would get ugly enough that it could force their hand.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I hear what you're saying and I have no passion about this at all. It's honest to god just basic dollars and cents. I know you know that too, so it's not like I am trying to explain that to you. I think the administration looks far closer at that then you are giving them credit for. At least one would hope that they run their business exactly like every other business in the world. For profit. For maximizing profit and for getting every penny it can get.

I wish I could share your sentiment about it just being 1 game on a Monday night when it was snowy. I've unfortunately watched this program and seen the empty seats for the last 20 years. It unfortunately CAN get worse. It did with Lick and it was a quick hook. 3 seasons is quick. Different scenarios I know. But couple some of Fran's other issues, the fan base and their pulse on the future is going to be important to Iowa from a business stand point.

They do look at last year as a success. I am positive of it. But if you follow it up with a cellar type of season, that gets erased pretty quickly in everyone's mind.

Just my opinion. I am sure you are probably more on the right side of this due to the history of operations .... i just think a bad year for Fran would get ugly enough that it could force their hand.

$9 million dollar buyout + let’s say 20% increase in salary for next coach compared to Fran’s current salary (competitive).

Iowa basketball had income of $3.7 million in 2019.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thegazette.com/subject/news/education/iowa-hawkeye-football-basketball-revenue-continues-to-slip-20190723?template=amphtml

What do you estimate our loss of income is for declining attendance? I mean it’s not like the stadium is empty.

 

[InGoodCo]

$9 million dollar buyout + let’s say 20% increase in salary for next coach compared to Fran’s current salary (competitive).

Iowa basketball had income of $3.7 million in 2019.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thegazette.com/subject/news/education/iowa-hawkeye-football-basketball-revenue-continues-to-slip-20190723?template=amphtml

What do you estimate our loss of income is for declining attendance? I mean it’s not like the stadium is empty.

No it's not empty. It's not half full most of the time either. So, they are missing out on, what ? At least another half of that 3.7 every year? With tickets and concessions? Or close to that. Their financials are done a year ahead of time. That's how it works when you are planning out your payroll, insurance etc and figure your budget. Guarantee they planned for a better year this season then last (attendance wise) based off of the product they had last year. If they tank - it's going to fall really short....and they are going to base and budget for the next season off that and it won't be pretty.

It's not a 9 million dollar buy out. That was if he was fired before July 1st. So....technically, Iowa could almost make that buy out back in a single season with better attendance. Close to it, and that's just ticket sales, concessions, parking etc.

Also, you said yourself, they do have the TV revenue to fall back on. Financially, they are one of the most profitable athletic programs in the country. They do know how to make a buck or 2. They don't make moves on football cause why would they? They are making money.

Now a new coach doesn't mean it's automatically going to sell it out either. That doesn't automatically fix everything. It just gives you hope that it can. It just appeases a fan base that is going to be pretty loud (if a bad year happens) - again, I think Fran could definitely force Iowa's hand, but I am obviously in the minority in those thoughts.

 

[InGoodCo]

PS, I just hope we win and don't have to worry about any of this shit. I am just talking to talk basically. In my opinion, Iowa could look at parting with Fran as a viable option if it were to get as bad as 17/18. Other peeps call me crazy because Barta's a loof. That's true. But eventually the buck stops. Let's hope it doesn't come to that even tho I imagine there are plenty that would like to see it happen.

 

[NikeHawk21]

No it's not empty. It's not half full most of the time either. So, they are missing out on, what ? At least another half of that 3.7 every year? With tickets and concessions? Or close to that. Their financials are done a year ahead of time. That's how it works when you are planning out your payroll, insurance etc and figure your budget. Guarantee they planned for a better year this season then last (attendance wise) based off of the product they had last year. If they tank - it's going to fall really short....and they are going to base and budget for the next season off that and it won't be pretty.

It's not a 9 million dollar buy out. That was if he was fired before July 1st. So....technically, Iowa could almost make that buy out back in a single season with better attendance. Close to it, and that's just ticket sales, concessions, parking etc.

Also, you said yourself, they do have the TV revenue to fall back on. Financially, they are one of the most profitable athletic programs in the country. They do know how to make a buck or 2. They don't make moves on football cause why would they? They are making money.

Now a new coach doesn't mean it's automatically going to sell it out either. That doesn't automatically fix everything. It just gives you hope that it can. It just appeases a fan base that is going to be pretty loud (if a bad year happens) - again, I think Fran could definitely force Iowa's hand, but I am obviously in the minority in those thoughts.

Woah you went the completely opposite way on that one as I expected. That 3.9 million I’m guessing comes majority from TV. My guess would be Carver gameday operates right around a breakeven.

I mean your talking about paying more than double our annual profit to buyout a coach, and that’s before you likely have to pay a new coach even more. As you said this is a business that is run for profit, do you really think a new coach is going to be able to increase profits by over $9 (or whatever it is now) million dollars more than what Fran would have earned over his 5 year contract?

Here’s another thing to add. If season ticket holders bought seats this year but didn’t show up Monday because it was cold and snowy is that really hurting them from a monetary standpoint?

 

[InGoodCo]

Woah you went the completely opposite way on that one as I expected. That 3.9 million I’m guessing comes majority from TV. My guess would be Carver gameday operates right around a breakeven.

I mean your talking about paying more than double our annual profit to buyout a coach, and that’s before you likely have to pay a new coach even more. As you said this is a business that is run for profit, do you really think a new coach is going to be able to increase profits by over $9 (or whatever it is now) million dollars more than what Fran would have earned over his 5 year contract?

Here’s another thing to add. If season ticket holders bought seats this year but didn’t show up Monday because it was cold and snowy is that really hurting them from a monetary standpoint?

Yeah, I assumed the 3.7 or .9 or whatever didn't include the TV revenue...which I believe is all tied in with FB right? So kind of tough to gauge. But I also don't know what is being paid out in that # either. A lot of things. So, really i am in over my skis trying to talk about that.

But, if you just based it off ticket sales, that extra revenue would substantiate making a move. Tickets have very low overhead. The seats are already there.

I mean, let's say that the stadium IS half full. Let's say the average ticket cost is $20 (that's a low # in my mind but I know student tickets are cheaper as well and you have suites which are more, floor seats etc) ... doesn't really matter for this exercise. So 15,500 / 2 = 7,750 x 20 = $155,000. $155,000 x 18 games is $2,790,000 and that's strictly ticket sales for a half empty stadium.

Let's say a new coach puts it at 75% capacity on average, that's $4,185,000 year just in ticket sales. Compare to a guy who might drop it below half full with a bad season? That could be a 1.5 to 2 million dollar swing and that's a problem. That's before any other revenue sources. Seats are something they feel like they can control. They can control that with product.

It's a no brainer. Iowa probably already loses out at least a couple of million just in ticket sales every season. That probably drives them nuts. If they think it's going to continue to dip because of the team, the buy out is worth it.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Yeah, I assumed the 3.7 or .9 or whatever didn't include the TV revenue...which I believe is all tied in with FB right? So kind of tough to gauge. But I also don't know what is being paid out in that # either. A lot of things. So, really i am in over my skis trying to talk about that.

But, if you just based it off ticket sales, that extra revenue would substantiate making a move. Tickets have very low overhead. The seats are already there.

I mean, let's say that the stadium IS half full. Let's say the average ticket cost is $20 (that's a low # in my mind but I know student tickets are cheaper as well and you have suites which are more, floor seats etc) ... doesn't really matter for this exercise. So 15,500 / 2 = 7,750 x 20 = $155,000. $155,000 x 18 games is $2,790,000 and that's strictly ticket sales for a half empty stadium.

Let's say a new coach puts it at 75% capacity on average, that's $4,185,000 year just in ticket sales. Compare to a guy who might drop it below half full with a bad season? That could be a 1.5 to 2 million dollar swing and that's a problem. That's before any other revenue sources. Seats are something they feel like they can control. They can control that with product.

It's a no brainer. Iowa probably already loses out at least a couple of million just in ticket sales every season. That probably drives them nuts. If they think it's going to continue to dip because of the team, the buy out is worth it.

What percentage of Carver is season tickets? Like I said if Dr Johnson buys his season tickets and pays for them up front but misses the DePaul game becuase he’s out of town is that a loss? That’s a big thing if they did well on the season ticket sales or not noticeable worse than prior seasons I doubt they really cared how many empty seats there were Monday night.

What about overall trends in the industry? I watched the Badger game on BTN last night and that was the most empty I’ve seen the Kohl Center in a long time. Football deals with this as well but people don’t like attending games as much these days. Between parking, walking in the cold, and devoting probably at least 3+ Hours depending on how far away you live many are choosing to spend their money elsewhere.

Again, while it’s part of the picture I don’t think attendance is going to move the needle enough for the powers that be to stomach a buyout and go on a coaching search.

(Also I’m in over my skis as well)

 

[InGoodCo]

What percentage of Carver is season tickets? Like I said if Dr Johnson buys his season tickets and pays for them up front but misses the DePaul game becuase he’s out of town is that a loss? That’s a big thing if they did well on the season ticket sales or not noticeable worse than prior seasons I doubt they really cared how many empty seats there were Monday night.

What about overall trends in the industry? I watched the Badger game on BTN last night and that was the most empty I’ve seen the Kohl Center in a long time. Football deals with this as well but people don’t like attending games as much these days. Between parking, walking in the cold, and devoting probably at least 3+ Hours depending on how far away you live many are choosing to spend their money elsewhere.

Again, while it’s part of the picture I don’t think attendance is going to move the needle enough for the powers that be to stomach a buyout and go on a coaching search.

(Also I’m in over my skis as well)

I don't have the answers to some of that. I know attendance is down across the sport, but programs standing right next to us are having success by putting out successful teams. A season ticket holder that doesn't show is probably not considered that big of a loss and I agree, f going to games - what a pain in the ass. I live 5 minutes from Creighton's barn and could go every night. Nope.

I just know that if they look at it as a business, they look at ticket sales as something they have control of and that's where they typically concentrate their efforts on. I could be wrong. I am wrong a lot.