Last year Illinois was the 1 seed I believe and played at 8 seed Stony Brook due to scheduling conflicts. Perhaps Iowa could get so lucky and host a game even as a lower seed, but that is a stretch. I would be happy with any invite to the NIT. I also believe Iowa is very worthy. We played well down the stretch and beat some very good teams this year. How many other teams under consideration for the NIT beat 4 top 15 teams? My guess is 0.
NIT Bubble Watch
- Thread starter storminspank
- Start date
Last year Illinois was the 1 seed I believe and played at 8 seed Stony Brook due to scheduling conflicts. Perhaps Iowa could get so lucky and host a game even as a lower seed, but that is a stretch. I would be happy with any invite to the NIT. I also believe Iowa is very worthy. We played well down the stretch and beat some very good teams this year. How many other teams under consideration for the NIT beat 4 top 15 teams? My guess is 0.
bpiercehawks
Well-Known Member
If Minny gets an NIT bid and we don't I will freak. Yes they played a nice game vs. Michigan yesterday, but we were 3-0 vs those squads this year. Could care less about Tubby and his RPI.
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
You obviously don't know the RPI formula.
hoffman22103
Well-Known Member
I don't get how that guy has minny and the illini in, they have worse conference records and Iowa finished ahead of them in conference? I think Barta knows we are in the NIT, I'll bank on it!
Yea, and if I'm reading this right, Iowa "moved up" in order even though still just out.
His last 4 "8 seeds":
Bucknell RPI
90 overall
140 in conference
No wins against top 25
Valparaiso RPI
95 overall
90 in conference
138 out of conference
No wins against top 25
Texas-Arlington RPI
109 overall
125 in conference
132 out of conference
No wins against top 25
Savannah St. RPI
191 overall
199 in conference
258 out of conference
No wins against top 25 (0-3)
Hopefully our in conference RPI, and record against the top 25 will mean something to the guys deciding this for real. That out of conference RPI really stands out though, ugh.
Iowa
128 overall
52 Conference
253 out of conference
4 Wins against top 25
Bucknell RPI
90 overall
140 in conference
No wins against top 25
Valparaiso RPI
95 overall
90 in conference
138 out of conference
No wins against top 25
Texas-Arlington RPI
109 overall
125 in conference
132 out of conference
No wins against top 25
Savannah St. RPI
191 overall
199 in conference
258 out of conference
No wins against top 25 (0-3)
Hopefully our in conference RPI, and record against the top 25 will mean something to the guys deciding this for real. That out of conference RPI really stands out though, ugh.
Iowa
128 overall
52 Conference
253 out of conference
4 Wins against top 25
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olivecourt
Well-Known Member
Obviously it's not an exact science, and the fact that this guy is even doing an NIT-based site is pretty sweet. That said, it looks like he goes pretty purely by RPI, and Iowa has to hope the committee takes more than that into account. The good news is that he has us as the third team out. I really, really don't see the NIT wanting to take Illinois, so let's hope the committee flips them for Iowa.
I'm kind of loving sweating the NIT bubble. It's weird and wonderful. Should we be rooting for St. Bonaventure or UMass today? These are the kinds of questions I never thought I'd be asking myself.
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
All of those teams you list have automatic bids because they won their regular season conference but not their conference tourneys.
The real "last four in" at this point are George Mason, Wyoming, Stanford, and Pitt.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Do we know for sure this is the case? IMO it would make very little sense for a team like Iowa that has a huge arena to play at Drexel or Oral Roberts. I think Drexel's arena has a capacity of 2500, the worst attended NIT game at CHA was ~6000 and I bet if Iowa got to host a 1st round NIT game over 10K would show up.
tm3308
Well-Known Member
So you're saying if we played 20 games against teams with average/poor RPI and went 20-0 in those games, then played 10 games against the top 25 (0-10), we'd have a pretty good RPI because of that SOS? Really?
Who you beat is definitely a factor. Who you lose to is a factor. Where do you think the phrase "good win" and "bad loss" on Selection Sunday came from?
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
Here's last year's bracket:
http://www.bigwest.org/assets/sports/mbball/2011 NIT Bracket.pdf
It's always the better seed at home unless there's a scheduling conflict (usually b/c that city is actually hosting an NCAA subregional). Subregionals this year are in Dayton, Albuquerque, Pittsburgh, Portland, Louisville, Columbus, Greensboro, Nashville, and Omaha. Dayton is the only conflict with an NIT team that I see there.
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
You're wrong on this one:
Ratings Percentage Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
RPI is a horribly blunt instrument. The talk of good wins and bad wins comes from evaluation above and beyond RPI, which doesn't take those into account at all.
My understanding is that the NCAA uses the RPI as a cutoff point-- an objective way to say that they will even consider team X but not team Y. The highest RPI ever to get an at-large bid is 75, I believe, which makes me think that the selection committee probably cuts off their deliberations at the top 80 or 85. But once you've made that cut, then they look at all sort of other stuff: last 10, bad losses, injuries, conference positioning, etc.
Let's hope the NIT deliberations follow that logic, b/c Iowa's RPI should be good enough to at least get them in conversation, and once they do I don't see how you could take a team like Illinois over them. We really, really needed Minnesota to lose, though. That could be the back-breaker.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Well then this makes me wonder if the seeds are adjust. Take for example Harvard, they were projected to be a #2 seed and ended up being a 6 playing at Oklahoma State.
This guy sounds less optimistic about Minny, but yea. Hopefully if it's us and them in the discussion, our 2-0 record against them might mean something!
2012 NIT Bracketology - NIT Tournament Update
(Updated 3-10)
Likely NIT Bound Right Now: Northwestern Wildcats
NIT Bubble: Iowa Hawkeyes, Minnesota Golden Gophers
We are definitely starting to become less optimistic about Minnesota, though we do tend to think that the Golden Gophers are going to get in when push comes to shove. Northwestern is a shoe-in in our eyes.
2012 NIT Bracketology - NIT Tournament Update
(Updated 3-10)
Likely NIT Bound Right Now: Northwestern Wildcats
NIT Bubble: Iowa Hawkeyes, Minnesota Golden Gophers
We are definitely starting to become less optimistic about Minnesota, though we do tend to think that the Golden Gophers are going to get in when push comes to shove. Northwestern is a shoe-in in our eyes.
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
That's a good point. Pretty much every team that has a better seed in that draw just happens to be from a bigger conference or at least in a bigger city than the team below it. Seems a little too convenient.
Interesting read.
NIT Bracketology: March 10 | Big Apple Buckets
How will the committee treat a team like the Fighting Illini? They’ve fired their coach, are 2-11 in their last 13 games and basically seem to have given up on the season. Why should they get a bid? In this latest version of my NIT bracket they don’t.
NIT Bracket:
1. Marshall
8. Valparaiso
4. Minnesota
5. Ohio
3. Middle Tennessee State
6. Iowa
2. Saint Joseph’s
7. Colorado
...
NIT Bracketology: March 10 | Big Apple Buckets
How will the committee treat a team like the Fighting Illini? They’ve fired their coach, are 2-11 in their last 13 games and basically seem to have given up on the season. Why should they get a bid? In this latest version of my NIT bracket they don’t.
NIT Bracket:
1. Marshall
8. Valparaiso
4. Minnesota
5. Ohio
3. Middle Tennessee State
6. Iowa
2. Saint Joseph’s
7. Colorado
...
