Iowa has a -0.6 rating to rank 299th, so they are due for somethings to break their way. Conversely, both MSU and MICH are in top 100 so are due from some regression.
On what do you base this besides what you hope will happen. I'll even lead you with the good ol' law of averages (as falacious an argument as any others presented here). Even then, what's to say that Iowa is "due" anything? Maybe Iowa is destined to be "unlucky" this season and the law of averages is achieved by Michigan and MSU getting the breaks? I still argue that Iowa has been extremely "lucky" in terms of having opportunities, all season. They've just failed to capitalize on them at the opportune times.
MICH still has difficult stretch @ IU, IOWA, tOSU, PUR, and home vs WISKY, SPARTY, and Gopher. Remember they lost to UNC-C away (2 months ago) and had the 2pt W @ NE, w other road wins vs 4-5 Wisky and injury decimated MSU not being as valuable as some here think.
They also only lost to AZ by 2. More importantly, if you're going to play the historical relativism angle to support your argument, you certainly have to reference that Iowa has blown double-digit leads in 3 of 5 losses and 5+ point leads in the other 2. It appears that trend is at least as likely to reoccur as Michigan losing, and, based on recent occurrence, more likely to recurr than Michigan losing.
To think they can't lose 3 games with this upcoming schedule is folly.Again, no where near "folly". All facts, trends and statistics between Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa actually support that it is the reasonable and rational expectation to think Michigan and MSU will not lose 3 games. On the other hand, Iowa, not so much.
Heck, I'm even going homer right along with you by thinking the Hawks will actually buck the expectation and win 9 of 10. But let's be clear, it is not supported by any valid argument, just as UM & MSU losing 4 and 3 games out of 10, respectively, is supported by anything other than hope
I still think 14-4 is 1-2 in big ten.