Miller: Can Iowa Still Win the Big Ten?

OK, facts are. tOSU and Wisconsin suck. They are not the teams early season indicated. So we can win out with the exception of Misc St. on the road. So we can do it, we just need Mich and Misc State to lose some gimmies and we need to upset Mich State on the road. Assuming they are still missing most of their players, I think we can do it.

No one seems to be debating the obvious here conference foes know conference foes very well...that's why any road wins are good some are more impressive than others...I would say our lack of success in Columbus counts as quality...our win at Illinois would count as quality. Hell given that NW is in the middle of the pack a road win at NW isn't shabby.
 


Now we're told that beating #3 O$U on their court isn't a quality win. If we would have beaten Wisconsin, some would say it is no longer a quality win. I guess a quality win is only beating the two teams ahead of us in the standings.
 


To answer Jon's question though as many others have stated on here while mathematically possible the odds are probably in the range of Warren Buffet's challenge to give $1B dollars to anyone that can pick a perfect March Madness bracket and those odds my friend are literally 1:9.2 x 10 to the 18th. This team has lacked the intestinal fortitude all year to get the W bad passes and bad misses at critical times Marble between his chokes at the line, bad pass down 3 at Michigan and his air ball on an 8ft j in the lane against MSU. Gesell, and I love that kid, but he can't make a pressure FT to save his life. Heck even Fran has contributed 2 T's in Madison cost us huge and even the T against MSU the other night turned out to be meaningful.
 


Of course Iowa can still win this.

Iowa is favored in 9 of last 10, underdog at MSU, (more on this later) finishes 14-4.
MSU is favored in 6 of 9, including a W v Iowa (more later) finishes at 14-4.
MU is favored in 7 of 9, with 2 being W being narrow odds 45/55. Finishes at 16-2.

If all win as expected, these exceptions must occur:

MU falls to either MSU or @ Indiana, both are close to 50/50 games, making MSU 17-3.
MSU falls to Iowa, beats MICH, and finishes 6-3 and ends up 14-4.
Iowa wins 9 favored games, and beats MSU in rematch at Crisler.

Is this unreasonable to assume that MICH falls on road to IU (see NE or MN game for low road ceiling)
Is it unreasonable to assume MICH falls at home to Sparty? In game in which MICH is slightly favored?
Is it unreasonable to assume IOWA beats Sparty in their own Gym?
This maybe the toughest, but let us look back at the last 3 games, were they not all 3 pts or less? Why would it not be reasonable to believe as an IOWA player that you wouldn't expect to play another game to the wire? And isn't it rationale to assume that Iowa gets a few breaks in a close game one time this yr?

For the record, KenPom still has IOWA listed ahead of Sparty and MICH, so I believe if I'm Iowa, I take one gm at a time, play to your demonstrated level, and hope that MICH falls in upsets to either MSU or IU on road, while you finally get the breaks like a few late FTs to drop, or a late driving layup to fall, or a bunny tip in at buzzer to to go your way vs the poor run of snake bit luck they've endured.

So use, It appears reasonable to assume that Iowa can still win it and they are due for break or 3.
 
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Of course Iowa can still win this.

Iowa is favored in 9 of last 10, underdog at MSU, (more on this later) finishes 14-4.
MSU is favored in 6 of 9, including a W v Iowa (more later) finishes at 14-4.
MU is favored in 7 of 9, with 2 being W being narrow odds 45/55. Finishes at 16-2.

If all win as expected, these exceptions must occur:

MU falls to either MSU or @ Indiana, both are close to 50/50 games, making MSU 17-3.
MSU falls to Iowa, beats MICH, and finishes 6-3 and ends up 14-4.
Iowa wins 9 favored games, and beats MSU in rematch at Crisler.

Is this unreasonable to assume that MICH falls on road to IU (see NE or MN game for low road ceiling)
Is it unreasonable to assume MICH falls at home to Sparty? In game in which MICH is slightly favored?
Is it unreasonable to assume IOWA beats Sparty in their own Gym?
This maybe the toughest, but let us look back at the last 3 games, were they not all 3 pts or less? Why would it not be reasonable to believe as an IOWA player that you wouldn't expect to play another game to the wire? And isn't it rationale to assume that Iowa gets a few breaks in a close game one time this yr?

For the record, KenPom still has IOWA listed ahead of Sparty and MICH, so I believe if I'm Iowa, I take one gm at a time, play to your demonstrated level, and hope that MICH falls in upsets to either MSU or IU on road, while you finally get the breaks like a few late FTs to drop, or a late driving layup to fall, or a bunny tip in at buzzer to to go your way vs the poor run of snake bit luck they've endured.

So use, It appears reasonable to assume that Iowa can still win it and they are due for break or 3.

God Bless ya, KC, but as so many who have come before you, your entire argument is fallacious. While all of those losses you reference could occur, expecting or "assuming" they will completely disregards probability. Michigan and MSU have proven they are likely to win those games. So, hope for them to happen all you want (I will be cheering against Michigan and MSU from here on out and for MSU to beat Michigan) but the answer to your question of, "Is it unreasonable to assume ... " is, "Yes, absolutely unreasonable!"

The other main point you try to make is that the Hawks are due some breaks, specifically, making late free throws, layups or tip-ins. These aren't breaks. Breaks are opportunities and the Hawks have had hundreds of them this season.

You want a break? How about a missed shot by Appling, leaving you 25 seconds to get 3 attempts at the winning shot in regulation? How about Appling missing both free throws, leaving you 4 seconds for the last shot in OT? How about 10 fewer fouls and 23 more free throw attempts than MSU? (Cripes! If this was on MSU's court Hawk fans would be whining about getting jobbed by the refs; even with this huge disparity, they still were!!)

What you describe is not lack of breaks; it's 100% failure to take advantage of those breaks.

As I already stated: It's not that the Hawks can't win out; it's that, Michigan and MSU are NOT likely to lose 3 or 4 games out of 10. Once again, the Hawks played themselves into a position where others determine their fate.

I do agree with you on the former -- Hawks need to start playing to their ability and win 9 games, 1 x 1. First "break" is tonight.
 


The way I see it right now for the regular season.


Michigan:50%
MSU: 45%
Iowa:4%
Other:1%
 


Games that have no shot at being considered a quality win at the end of the year-

@Illinois
@PSU
@Indiana
Purdue
Illinois

I gotta debate you on this one, I think there is a little chance that winning at Illinois and Indiana could still qualify as a quality win. Both of those places are still tough to win and like you said we won't know for sure until the end of the year. If Iowa wins tonight at Illinois, a place they have not won in 20 years, it will go down as a quality win. With everyone's struggles to win on the road in the Big Ten I think the committee will look at them as quality wins.

If Iowa can avoid a bad loss it will have the same effect come tournament time as a quality win.
 


A. MICH and MSU have also "proven" to be vulnerable to vastly poorer teams like losses to UNC-C and at Home to UNC, if right, then are vulnerable both at home and to nearly anyone on the schedule, right?
B. If they've proven to be vulnerable to low ceiling teams, then the laws of probability apply to all their games as well, and that having "proven" they are likely to win is not the same thing as guaranteed to win?
C.I agree you make your breaks and I made no beef w the Refs, just saying, if you reload the last 5 mins of each loss 10x, iowa, I'm guessing wins 50% or more (please feel free to put a # in here, 40%, 33%.) the point is they will not lose everyone. Even KenPom has them as one of the most unlucky teams in college BB. In my view, they are due for a bit of luck, agreed?

The beauty of this argument is that this team has the tool box to win out, or 9-10, and finish 14-4, earning a 3-4 seed and each game provides real value in watching while scoreboard watching the top 2 teams beats scoreboard watching games vs other NCAA bubble teams as last yr and who's gonna finish in the basement.
 


I agree with you Kelly. A quality win isn't solely defined by the NCAA selection committee. IMO, wins at Indiana and Illinois would be character builders for this team and therefore quality wins. As long as the character building win doesn't go to their heads.

If wins at Illinois and Indiana aren't considered quality wins, Iowa may not be motivated and lose both games.
 


A. MICH and MSU have also "proven" to be vulnerable to vastly poorer teams like losses to UNC-C and at Home to UNC, if right, then are vulnerable both at home and to nearly anyone on the schedule, right?
B. If they've proven to be vulnerable to low ceiling teams, then the laws of probability apply to all their games as well, and that having "proven" they are likely to win is not the same thing as guaranteed to win?
C.I agree you make your breaks and I made no beef w the Refs, just saying, if you reload the last 5 mins of each loss 10x, iowa, I'm guessing wins 50% or more (please feel free to put a # in here, 40%, 33%.) the point is they will not lose everyone. Even KenPom has them as one of the most unlucky teams in college BB. In my view, they are due for a bit of luck, agreed?

The beauty of this argument is that this team has the tool box to win out, or 9-10, and finish 14-4, earning a 3-4 seed and each game provides real value in watching while scoreboard watching the top 2 teams beats scoreboard watching games vs other NCAA bubble teams as last yr and who's gonna finish in the basement.
Been drinking too much of the Kool-Aid, have ya? Even though Iowa may have the "tool box" to win out, they've still been unable to put the correct pieces together.
 


The 'Kool Aid' I would reference is the KenPom off/def efficiency metrics which attempt to quantify 'how well you score on each possession and how well you defend each possession'. When adding the 2 together, the last 11 yrs worth of final four data show the average is ~15 on offense and 15 on defense for a total of ~30. ( I think the winners Avg is something like 15)

Today Syracuse leads this category at a total of 17, IOWA is 2nd at 21, and AZ is 3rd at 23. Pretty strong company, agreed?

Additionally, Iowa is at a very poor luck metric of -.06, so, in baseball parlance, they've been hitting the ball hard but right at people, this is only liable to normalize over the course of a full season.

In sum, the Kool-Aid 'i drink' is based on some pretty extensive data points and historical FF data.

The tool box suggests they are as good as AZ and SYR, are in line for a few breaks, and will be favored to win in 9-10 remaining games. I my view, it's not an unreasonable position to suggest that 14-4 wins the big ten and Iowa still can win the Big Ten as the thread title asks.
 


Been drinking too much of the Kool-Aid, have ya? Even though Iowa may have the "tool box" to win out, they've still been unable to put the correct pieces together.


Bingo and that is on Fran.

All to often I see an Iowa team close to be able to slam the door shut only to see a Fran line shift or substitution that brings our opponent back in the game and gives them life.
 


The 'Kool Aid' I would reference is the KenPom off/def efficiency metrics which attempt to quantify 'how well you score on each possession and how well you defend each possession'. When adding the 2 together, the last 11 yrs worth of final four data show the average is ~15 on offense and 15 on defense for a total of ~30. ( I think the winners Avg is something like 15)

Today Syracuse leads this category at a total of 17, IOWA is 2nd at 21, and AZ is 3rd at 23. Pretty strong company, agreed?

Additionally, Iowa is at a very poor luck metric of -.06, so, in baseball parlance, they've been hitting the ball hard but right at people, this is only liable to normalize over the course of a full season.

In sum, the Kool-Aid 'i drink' is based on some pretty extensive data points and historical FF data.

The tool box suggests they are as good as AZ and SYR, are in line for a few breaks, and will be favored to win in 9-10 remaining games. I my view, it's not an unreasonable position to suggest that 14-4 wins the big ten and Iowa still can win the Big Ten as the thread title asks.


Hey kctom, are there rankings for the luck metric? If so where does Iowa rank?
 


B1G season championship is gone. Michigan is highly unlikely to lose four and MSU three.
Most of us weren't expecting that anyway prior to the season.

Obviously, now is the time to work on FTs, getting fast pace going, tinkering with lineups so that the Hawks are peaking at B1G tourney and March Madness time.
(Championship game and elite 8 should be realistic minimum goals)
 


Iowa has a -0.6 rating to rank 299th, so they are due for somethings to break their way. Conversely, both MSU and MICH are in top 100 so are due from some regression.

MICH still has difficult stretch @ IU, IOWA, tOSU, PUR, and home vs WISKY, SPARTY, and Gopher. Remember they lost to UNC-C away and had the 2pt W @ NE, w other road wins vs 4-5 Wisky and injury decimated MSU not being as valuable as some here think.

To think they can't lose 3 games with this upcoming schedule is folly.

I still think 14-4 is 1-2 in big ten.
 


Iowa has a -0.6 rating to rank 299th, so they are due for somethings to break their way. Conversely, both MSU and MICH are in top 100 so are due from some regression.

MICH still has difficult stretch @ IU, IOWA, tOSU, PUR, and home vs WISKY, SPARTY, and Gopher. Remember they lost to UNC-C away and had the 2pt W @ NE, w other road wins vs 4-5 Wisky and injury decimated MSU not being as valuable as some here think.

To think they can't lose 3 games with this upcoming schedule is folly.

I still think 14-4 is 1-2 in big ten.

Good stuff KC. You must have lurked for a loooooong time. Keep on posting, you've brought some interesting stuff to the table.
 


Ha, I do like to measure my thoughts, for a yr or 3...

KenPom, Teamrankings.com, and sagarin are digital age sources,
vs the rankings of the AP or the Analog Parents Poll....
 


Iowa has a -0.6 rating to rank 299th, so they are due for somethings to break their way. Conversely, both MSU and MICH are in top 100 so are due from some regression.
On what do you base this besides what you hope will happen. I'll even lead you with the good ol' law of averages (as falacious an argument as any others presented here). Even then, what's to say that Iowa is "due" anything? Maybe Iowa is destined to be "unlucky" this season and the law of averages is achieved by Michigan and MSU getting the breaks? I still argue that Iowa has been extremely "lucky" in terms of having opportunities, all season. They've just failed to capitalize on them at the opportune times.

MICH still has difficult stretch @ IU, IOWA, tOSU, PUR, and home vs WISKY, SPARTY, and Gopher. Remember they lost to UNC-C away (2 months ago) and had the 2pt W @ NE, w other road wins vs 4-5 Wisky and injury decimated MSU not being as valuable as some here think.
They also only lost to AZ by 2. More importantly, if you're going to play the historical relativism angle to support your argument, you certainly have to reference that Iowa has blown double-digit leads in 3 of 5 losses and 5+ point leads in the other 2. It appears that trend is at least as likely to reoccur as Michigan losing, and, based on recent occurrence, more likely to recurr than Michigan losing.

To think they can't lose 3 games with this upcoming schedule is folly.Again, no where near "folly". All facts, trends and statistics between Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa actually support that it is the reasonable and rational expectation to think Michigan and MSU will not lose 3 games. On the other hand, Iowa, not so much.

Heck, I'm even going homer right along with you by thinking the Hawks will actually buck the expectation and win 9 of 10. But let's be clear, it is not supported by any valid argument, just as UM & MSU losing 4 and 3 games out of 10, respectively, is supported by anything other than hope


I still think 14-4 is 1-2 in big ten.

GO HAWKS! BEAT THE **** OUT OF ILLANNOY.
 




My 'hope' is tied to the inevitable regression to the mean in their 'unluckiness' that is currently @ 299 of 330 or so teams.

The point you bring up that Iowa has had double digit leads and/or leads late w the ball, is all evidence that they are destined to win those games. I will take my chances with these double digit leads in tough road venues vs top ranked teams w big leads and 'hope' that their luck begins to normalize as the data suggests it will.

Iowa is favored right now, in 9 of 10 Games, so those are the data points that backs the argument, that is not hope, those are published. So yes, It is a rationale proposition.

Will see starting tomorrow about Michigan on the road.
 




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