Miller: Are Hawkeye Offensive Problems Systemic?

[SmokeTownHawk]

I do not disagree with John's assessment. However if we have receivers who hold onto the ball on a more regular basis-as in the entire game the perspective changes. If Powell doesn't bobble the ball in the end zone last Saturday and CJ is Joe Namath v.2.

 

[CAARHawk]

Can you please cite/link some specific examples?

I totally could if the site hadn't evolved so often. I am talking about back to the Rob Howe doghouse days, or perhaps earlier. People were going at you fairly strongly for what some perceived as a bit of an apologetic stance and your strong tendency to delete threads that were negative regarding the program. We had a rather comprehensive discussion regarding the role of a journalist, of which you denied you were a journalist.

Paraphrasing, you stated that you run the equivalent of a fan site and were reliant on access to the program and had seen what happens when people step over the line and create an antagonistic relationship.

It was a fairly lively give-and-take. Surprised you don't remember.

I thought you made your case effectively and I even have discussed it when talking about the shift from old school sports pages to entrepreneurial sports sites.

 

[Hawknick]

It is not as bad as some make it out to be. This team is averaging 24 points per game even with 2/6 on 40 yard field goals. By comparison Iowa averaged 24 ppg in 2004 and 23 in 2009. Both of those did very well. Hit the field goals and this is a 30 ppg team so far. The defense is playing great again this year.Giving up 18 points per game. I do believe that the kicking game will improve and the offensive output will be enough to win.

 

[NCHawker]

Could it be that the strategy is to get the ball to the athletes in space and let them make plays?

 

[HomerChampless]

I really don't think it's even close to that.. Jake C couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, sad to say. He hit on 53% of his passes in 2007 when he was the starter, and less than 59% early 2008. Rudock is hitting nearly 70% of his passes so far, he's led his team to four comeback wins in his career as a starter, where Iowa has a 10-5 record in by the way.

Ricky Stanzi played a lot early that year...I think he played the equiv of one full game by the end of the Pitt game....Beathard has played one series, and when he played last year, he was hardly impressive save for the power of his arm.

This is his third year in the program now, and from what I hear, he is making many of the same mistakes or errors now than he did as a rookie....it doesn't inspire confidence from the staff. I am going to save some of the adjectives some (who are at practices often and who have played the game at the highest levels) have shared with me to describe his play at times. CJB wins the swimsuit competition but that don't win you the pageant on it's face...sure, it can turn a few heads but that isn't all that goes into being a quarterback. If it were, Dan McGwire would have beaten out Chuck Hartlieb and Tom Poholsky...but he didn't...and Hartlieb went on to be one of the most successful passers in Iowa history.

Stanzi did have better yards per attempt numbers than Jake R, and Jake R and Jake C yards per attempt are actually pretty close. I am not saying that there is only one way to go...and if CJB could make the right decisions consistently, he might be the guy...but he doesn't do that where it counts most to this coaching staff, and that is in practice.

But this really goes again the main theme that I see at play, and that is a mismatch with Davis...and that's not all on Davis, either.

Mike, you mentioned the mistakes the Iowa coaching staff says Beathard consistently makes. I wonder, since the offense under Ferentz is ultra conservative, if a 25 yard pass on the fly is considered a mistake?

It seems I remember when KOK was OC and Iowa had those two talented, converted receivers on the field at the same time, the only time a long pass on the fly was attempted was on first down. Maybe this was because of Stanzi's Rudock-like arm or maybe only because it caught the defense off guard. Never was there a 'can you beat my best stuff' attitude on those long, on the fly passing plays. Does KF have a Woody Hayes-like attitude towards passing? That three things can happen with a pass and two are bad? I'll bet he does. It's against the odds...

 

[HomerChampless]

It is not as bad as some make it out to be. This team is averaging 24 points per game even with 2/6 on 40 yard field goals. By comparison Iowa averaged 24 ppg in 2004 and 23 in 2009. Both of those did very well. Hit the field goals and this is a 30 ppg team so far. The defense is playing great again this year.Giving up 18 points per game. I do believe that the kicking game will improve and the offensive output will be enough to win.

You quickly give up on the potential of this Iowa offense will all it's squandered resources. Then you assume the defense will play the same lights out as against UNI and Ball State.. Certainly you aren't concerned with Iowa playing in any kind of championship any time soon. I congratulate your low standards for this program.

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

Same here. Sure, Jon, no one can argue with Rudock's high completion percentage...but there is a reason his QB rating is so low in spite of the percentage. His throws are primarily very very high percentage dump offs to wide open running backs/TEs where the ball flies 2 yards and the back/TE then gets a couple extra yards after catch to artificially increase the "yards per catch."

Yep. Jake Christensen in 2007, 6.13 YPA, 17 TD/6 INT. Jake Rudock this year, 6.15 YPA 4 TD/0 INT.

 

[JonDMiller]

I totally could if the site hadn't evolved so often. I am talking about back to the Rob Howe doghouse days, or perhaps earlier. People were going at you fairly strongly for what some perceived as a bit of an apologetic stance and your strong tendency to delete threads that were negative regarding the program. We had a rather comprehensive discussion regarding the role of a journalist, of which you denied you were a journalist.

Paraphrasing, you stated that you run the equivalent of a fan site and were reliant on access to the program and had seen what happens when people step over the line and create an antagonistic relationship.

It was a fairly lively give-and-take. Surprised you don't remember.

I thought you made your case effectively and I even have discussed it when talking about the shift from old school sports pages to entrepreneurial sports sites.

Every post every made on these boards since December 2009 is still searchable.

I think you're misremembering here. I have said in the past that I do not allow repetitive negative posting. However criticisms are allowed, always have been. Look around.

I've also always said that fairness matters...saying things like 'Ferentz sucks' or stupid third grade stuff like that doesn't fly, but constructing an adult criticism which illustrates why someone is displeased is always allowed.

The fairness thing is absolutely something I have brought it, because it was said to me early in my career by someone in IC: "We don't care if people are critical, that comes with the territory. Just be fair."

 

[JonDMiller]

Yep. Jake Christensen in 2007, 6.13 YPA, 17 TD/6 INT. Jake Rudock this year, 6.15 YPA 4 TD/0 INT.

So you're saying that Jake R is short hopping receivers, or throwing it through them at 90MPH from 5 feet, etc? While there is some semblance in a few stats, accuracy isn't even a debate.

All that said, it still stands that, CJB has done nothing to endear himself to some other than having a strong arm. He's not even completed 37% of his career passing attempts.

 

[ICHawk24]

Yep. Jake Christensen in 2007, 6.13 YPA, 17 TD/6 INT. Jake Rudock this year, 6.15 YPA 4 TD/0 INT.

Christensen: 53%, 99 carries for zero yards
Rudock: 69%, 11 carries for 53 yards

Rudock has things he needs to improve, but he is producing much better than Christensen ever did.

 

[JonDMiller]

Christensen: 53%, 99 carries for zero yards
Rudock: 69%, 11 carries for 53 yards

Rudock has things he needs to improve, but he is producing much better than Christensen ever did.

Jake C was sacked I think 48 times that year, more than any other QB in the country...that certainly didn't help his confidence. OL was the worst of the KF era since after 2000

 

[Winterhawk]

I think many are selling Rudock short. I think a good chunk of the offensive problems are systemic and philosophically based. The offense just invites the compression of the defense. When Weisman is in a single back, the safeties crash. Iowa needs to exploit that and Rudock is more than capable.

An honest question, what do you base this on at this point in his career? If I look at the body of his work, I've got to say it is questionable as to whether or not he is capable. This represents the physical and psychological elements in his game. In his career at Iowa he has never been a good deep ball thrower for the reasons discussed in this thread, others and pointed out by gamefilm. The safeties are crashing as you point out, but he doesn't work the middle of the field consistently, and he is quick to check down. He is clearly hesitant right now, on almost all throws the deep ones - and I believe that is because he is more scared of making mistakes than willing to trust his training - although my hypothesis can't be proven. I just don't know how you've come to the conclusion of his capabilities. I'm not saying it is an impossibility, but I don't share your level of security in this assessment.

All of the above has nothing to do with CJB. Rudock may be our best option at quarterback, but that doesn't change his past performance or capabilities to this point in his career. If Jake is doing a great job of making the checks at the line - the results do not yet show. This can be for many factors not the least of which include the vision of the backs and the execution of our line especially at the guard positions. But regarding JR vs. CJB it seems like you are convinced that the competition wasn't as close as the coaching staff communicated publicly - is this accurate? While I agree that CJB hasn't shown us greatness to make it obvious, he also hasn't been in games that really gave him any chance to succeed. Coming in when a player is hurt, is not the same as preparing with the 1's all week. Look no further than in '09 with Vandenburg. He was awful against Northwestern in Kinnick after Stanzi got hurt and then very competent bordering on good at Ohio State in the Shoe the following week. I think the QB's are more comparable than not, but have very different strengths and weaknesses and Rudock's are very clearly more in line with the KF philosophy.

 

[83Hawk]

I wish Band Dad were here to give his thoughts.

 

[ICHawk24]

Jake C was sacked I think 48 times that year, more than any other QB in the country...that certainly didn't help his confidence. OL was the worst of the KF era since after 2000

Christensen got sacked a lot because he was poor at avoiding sacks. Rudock is a wizard at avoiding sacks. Its a huge point of favor for Rudock.

 

[hawkinn3]

Nobody is as bad as Christensen, its not fair to compare anybody to him. Go back and watch those games if you can, you will be shaken for days afterwards. We all talk about Ruddock making safe short passes, well at least he complete almost all of those. Christensen couldn't make the easiest of throws with any consistency.

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

Nobody is as bad as Christensen, its not fair to compare anybody to him. Go back and watch those games if you can, you will be shaken for days afterwards. We all talk about Ruddock making safe short passes, well at least he complete almost all of those. Christensen couldn't make the easiest of throws with any consistency.

Completing 2/3 passes for 8 yards doesn't get you anywhere faster than completing 1/3 for 8 yards.

 

[JHHawk]

Jake has been very steady, which is a good thing. We know he can run a two minute offense, as he showed on Saturday. That was very precise. I think about Stave of Wis. and shudder to think about Jake getting the yips late in games....not a problem.

CJ looks like a higher ceiling guy but Jake remains the guy as long as we win...or lead in games. But if we get down on Saturday, with ISU loading the box with 11 guys, and Jake still has not tested them....lets try Cj for a series. He has the arm. Jake missed on a couple of late long throws....just has not be real accurate on longer passes....his arm might be strong enough but you do have to be on target.

Whoever gets the nod, better be ready to move away from pressure with two frosh starting on Iowa's left side. Both QBs have moved well so far...and watch you back. Hope Jake comes out hot and we romp! Go Hawks!

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Past history shows otherwise Jon.

KF likes his safe QB and that is all there is to it....CJB is the better QB over all and if I were him i would transfer immediately...as the coaching staff is to dumb to use him.

There is no evidence to support this. CJB has a "bigger" arm (supposedly). He may be "faster" than JR (supposedly). His career completion percentage is worse.

Trust coaches once in a while. The Mod of the site--who, I would guess, has more access than the great majority of the posters on the site--is pretty much telling you the story.

 

[JonDMiller]

An honest question, what do you base this on at this point in his career? If I look at the body of his work, I've got to say it is questionable as to whether or not he is capable. This represents the physical and psychological elements in his game. In his career at Iowa he has never been a good deep ball thrower for the reasons discussed in this thread, others and pointed out by gamefilm. The safeties are crashing as you point out, but he doesn't work the middle of the field consistently, and he is quick to check down. He is clearly hesitant right now, on almost all throws the deep ones - and I believe that is because he is more scared of making mistakes than willing to trust his training - although my hypothesis can't be proven. I just don't know how you've come to the conclusion of his capabilities. I'm not saying it is an impossibility, but I don't share your level of security in this assessment.

All of the above has nothing to do with CJB. Rudock may be our best option at quarterback, but that doesn't change his past performance or capabilities to this point in his career. If Jake is doing a great job of making the checks at the line - the results do not yet show. This can be for many factors not the least of which include the vision of the backs and the execution of our line especially at the guard positions. But regarding JR vs. CJB it seems like you are convinced that the competition wasn't as close as the coaching staff communicated publicly - is this accurate? While I agree that CJB hasn't shown us greatness to make it obvious, he also hasn't been in games that really gave him any chance to succeed. Coming in when a player is hurt, is not the same as preparing with the 1's all week. Look no further than in '09 with Vandenburg. He was awful against Northwestern in Kinnick after Stanzi got hurt and then very competent bordering on good at Ohio State in the Shoe the following week. I think the QB's are more comparable than not, but have very different strengths and weaknesses and Rudock's are very clearly more in line with the KF philosophy.

You're going to get into psychology now?

He's 10-5 as a starter. He has some road wins including at Nebraska. He's very smart and executes mostly what the coaches want. CJB is not doing those things consistently in practice. Things like this are a big waste of time and also mostly baseless. Jake has a large body of work and has had success. CJB has thrown 30 passes and has completed less than 38% of them. He's had an entire offseason to do the things and run the system to coaches want. But he isn't there.

So everyone can want the cannon. It's always something people want in the backup. But just like Banks wasn't ready in 2001, CJB is not ready in the eyes of the coaches.

 

[LG210]

It is always tempting to weigh in on personnel decisions because we all have opinions or gut instincts on which players should be playing and it is always one of the most intriquing arguments in all of sports. In fact, I'll do it from time to time, but generally try to avoid it.

However, being as realistic as possible, it is impossible for fans to know better than the coaches who should be playing at any given moment. We don't get to see the practices. We don't know each player's knowledge of the systems and playbooks. We don't know how the players play together. We don't know much at all. That is particularly true with reserves that have little-to-no game experience that the fans can reference.

I don't know who should be our starting QB. Rud has looked good, but has some deficiencies. CJB has the arm, but perhaps has some in-game judgment issues. This isn't a situation in which one guy simply isn't getting it done. As a result, I have to defer to the coaches on this one.

I've said my peace. Carry on.