Miller: Are Hawkeye Offensive Problems Systemic?

[SpecialKHawk]

Never was a fan of the GD hire !!

Why is this relevant? I would imagine this could be said on just about any hire.

 

[CP87]

Seems a bit defensive to say that I'm getting into psychology now. You have referenced risk aversion both in regard to the coaching staff, but also in how Rudock is playing. I think Gamefilm used the word "confidence" in his analysis and seemed to hint that it was lacking, along with anticipation, in regards to the deep ball. I think you can see it more broadly as well as many of his passes are behind receivers and come on late reads. If psychology is the wrong word feel free to correct, but there is something in the head that is preventing him from getting the ball out on time with confidence.

And why are you making a point of the fact that he is very smart? In what I have read in this thread and other threads, no one is implying that Rudock is anything but smart - no one. If anyone had that impression they could listen to any Hawkeye game broadcast where they talk about his medical ambitions, his class load and his priorities. This is a non-issue. The point I'm making is that I don't see how, based on the information we have available that we can be confident in JR's capabilities to exploit defenses.

The cannon arm comment is a way of dismissing those who find short-comings in Rudock. I've been clear in my posts that I defer to the coaches on who should play, but a lot of the desire in the fan base for CJB to play has less to do with his arm strength and more to do with the lack of production the offense has had with Rudock. If you don't believe this, answer this question honestly: If the Hawkeyes were winning these first 2 games by 3-4 touchdowns and looked effective on offense doing so, do you think anyone is calling for Beathard? The arm is attractive because of the lack of production that has existed in that area with results we have available.

Seems like a pretty thoughtful, well-reasoned post. In regards to the bolded-part above, I noticed at least a couple of situations when Ruddock correctly threw to a window in the zone, and his receivers were incorrectly running through the window instead of settling into it, resulting in passes behind them. I am sure a few of those passes-behind-receivers could also be put on the QB.

 

[JonDMiller]

but a lot of the desire in the fan base for CJB to play has less to do with his arm strength and more to do with the lack of production the offense has had with Rudock.

I agree, but adding to it and primarily being, it's CJ's arm and what people begin to daydream about. It's like having a grand in hand yet Monte Hall talking you in to door number two, without having any idea what's behind that door (google 'Let's Make a Deal' if you have no idea of what that reference is)

That's too big a reach for my taste.

The biggest question I would have, without having been to any practices, is if CJ does miss some checks and is more pick prone than Rudock (all of what I have heard), Does he add dimensions (risk of stretching field, a little zone read look) that would actually help the running game? He probably does. But is it 4 steps forward and three steps back, or is it four steps forward and two steps back? Is Jake more Two steps forward and a half back? I don't know..but I know each has a pretty salty defense in the equation...but not a great PK game. There may be too many mistakes in the kicking game for Kirk to have the stomach for a higher risk signal caller on offense.

This entire thing has been a bit fascinating and a departure from the norm for Ferentz...even playing Rudock on that series just seemed out of character...They had him in the plans to play CJ v UNI, but I think the Panthers big plays early scrapped that, as Kirk was not comfortable with the risk factor. V Ball State, it was 0-0, and he threw CJ in there the second series..almost like a 'let's get this over with' (my opinion)

If Iowa gets up double digits v ISU in first half, I think you will see him again.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Great take there Belichek, maybe you should pass your football "knowledge" on to the coaching staff, I'm sure they could really use a guy who can tell them hey playing someone gives them a higher chance of getting hurt than sitting on the bench.

At least learn how to spell "Belichick"...

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Nothing screams "fool" more than someone making a smart*ss comment without researching what they are responding to, first. I'll help you out, Bob:

Qtr 1: 4:23 mark game clock.

Qtr 2: 11:33 mark game clock.
Qtr 2: 9:26 mark game clock.

Qtr 3: 00:13 mark game clock.

Qtr 4: 14:40 mark game clock.
Qtr 4: 7:47 mark game clock.
Qtr 4: 5:50 mark game clock.

Yeah, it just screams out...

Seriously, there is so much one does NOT see on a TV replay. Unless you're watching BTN2Go on an overhead view. If so, congrats.

 

[Winterhawk]

I agree, but adding to it and primarily being, it's CJ's arm and what people begin to daydream about. It's like having a grand in hand yet Monte Hall talking you in to door number two, without having any idea what's behind that door (google 'Let's Make a Deal' if you have no idea of what that reference is)

Not to be a jerk, it's just kind of funny. The Let's Make a Deal reference actually is a statistical case study that caused a stir back in the 70's - Marilyn von Savant and her 200+ IQ proved you should take one of the other doors when offered. In essence this is then saying CJB (he still may be a goat). Like I said, not your point, and not to be a jerk or pick a chat fight - interesting reference for us risk/math guys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

[Winterhawk]

Seems like a pretty thoughtful, well-reasoned post. In regards to the bolded-part above, I noticed at least a couple of situations when Ruddock correctly threw to a window in the zone, and his receivers were incorrectly running through the window instead of settling into it, resulting in passes behind them. I am sure a few of those passes-behind-receivers could also be put on the QB.

It's a fair point CP - although I sometimes think it is of his own doing as well. The Duzey touchdown is a good example, 94 from Ball State is dropping into his zone and Rudock's pass is behind Duzey, which keeps him from being thrown into that zone. The flip side is if the read happens faster it's not an issue. One could argue Duzey needed to sit down (he was deeper than the dropping defender) or that the ball has to come out on time from JR. Little bit of Chicken and Egg quandry... Ultimately a touchdown and not every play is going to be perfect timing - we'll take all the touchdown's we can get.

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

At least learn how to spell "Belichick"...

Wasn't worth my time looking it up to respond to a troll like you.

 

[JonDMiller]

Not to be a jerk, it's just kind of funny. The Let's Make a Deal reference actually is a statistical case study that caused a stir back in the 70's - Marilyn von Savant and her 200+ IQ proved you should take one of the other doors when offered. In essence this is then saying CJB (he still may be a goat). Like I said, not your point, and not to be a jerk or pick a chat fight - interesting reference for us risk/math guys.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Love it!

 

[hawkdrummer1]

So many directions since page 1, I'll just post a simple comment.

The subject line is not only over due, I assume it's a rhetorical question.

 

[1hawkeye1]

Excellent thread. I feel fortunate to have JR and CJB. At this time, JR is a better QB than CJB. Yes CJB can chuck the ball further. Doesn't make him a superior QB.

And as some have pointed out, I thought the title of the thread was more of a Greg Davis thing than a QB battle thing.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Wasn't worth my time looking it up to respond to a troll like you.

Erudite. Seriously,

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Wasn't worth my time looking it up to respond to a troll like you.

<<Wasn't worth my time looking it up...>>

Yeah, that 12.5 seconds it takes to open another browser window and look it up...

Seriously, morons who use the, "It isn't/wasn't worth my time" are the very core of the dumbing-down of this country.

That, and the fact those folks were probably, from the outset, morons.

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

<<Wasn't worth my time looking it up...>>

Yeah, that 12.5 seconds it takes to open another browser window and look it up...

Seriously, morons who use the, "It isn't/wasn't worth my time" are the very core of the dumbing-down of this country.

That, and the fact those folks were probably, from the outset, morons.

I'm not even going to reply, would just be a waste of my time. You've already got the dumbing down of this board handled.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

I'm not even going to reply, would just be a waste of my time. You've already got the dumbing down of this board handled.

Yeah, having witnessed it on a daily basis for the last ten-plus years...

 

[RocknRollface]

I agree. I think if Norm was as aggressive as Phil is, our defenses would have been some of the best in the nation. And by best I mean best at getting off the field quickly to get your offense back out there.

I never bought into the idea that it was somehow smart to never blitz.

There were too many years where 4th quarters were scarry close becasue the D had been on the field %75 of the game and was running on fumes.

 

[MoseSchrute]

.....because the offense couldn't get another first down.

 

[PCHawk]

I never bought into the idea that it was somehow smart to never blitz.

There were too many years where 4th quarters were scarry close becasue the D had been on the field %75 of the game and was running on fumes.

The defense was probably a great idea for the years where we struggled with talent. I just think it was a terrible stragety when we had a team full of nflers to keep the ball in front of you and wait for the other team to screw up.

That defense is also really bad at stopping drives when the opponent gets into a situation where they are forced to go for it on 4th down. That's why we've seen allot of late scoring drives to lose the lead.

 

[Gibsonian]

In response to original post, very nice Jon.

GD offense could make (successful) defensive coordinators out of many arm chair coaches such as myself, for sure.

Couple points from my perspective:

1) The systemic idea to me is supported well by the roster we have today and have had in the past. We have good players in a good environment that are not doing a very good job scoring points. Puts some great kids in a tough spot. Makes crabby people out of fun loving folks such as you and I.

2) Lots of great bruisers across the NFL and in college ball in the fullback mold that have their place running and blocking, but without speed and elusiveness you cannot be very successful in the running back position - long term. Would love to see our own Hebrew Hammer doing the blocking for our best back (hint Canzeri) for the majority of running plays. I think the team would enjoy it too. On the odd occasions that the fullback got the ball, the tackler would get a nice surprise (knocked on his arse)

 

[ArvadaHawk]

Yeah, it just screams out...

Seriously, there is so much one does NOT see on a TV replay. Unless you're watching BTN2Go on an overhead view. If so, congrats.

Bob, go look at those plays yourself. Each of those plays is contained within the viewable screen; meaning the mistake is visible on the t.v. camera. You can go look for yourself, or not, but it doesn't change the fact that there is video (therefore visual) evidence of glaring mistakes or misthrows that caused us points or field position.