Miller: Are Hawkeye Offensive Problems Systemic?

This thread is one of the better ones I can remember. A lot of posters on both sides making strong arguments. But imagine just how much better (and fun) it would be had Powell caught that TD?

As Jon has said, CJB hasn't done a whole lot in games to earn the starting job and it appears isn't doing it in practice either. But to watch a QB go 3/3 60+ yards and a TD get pulled for a QB who produced 3 points in 3 1/2 quarters and struggles to hit passes downfield would have been interesting. The CJB backers would be a lot louder than they already are.
 
JonDMiller said:
You're going to get into psychology now?

He's 10-5 as a starter. He has some road wins including at Nebraska. He's very smart and executes mostly what the coaches want. CJB is not doing those things consistently in practice. Things like this are a big waste of time and also mostly baseless. Jake has a large body of work and has had success. CJB has thrown 30 passes and has completed less than 38% of them. He's had an entire offseason to do the things and run the system to coaches want. But he isn't there.

So everyone can want the cannon. It's always something people want in the backup. But just like Banks wasn't ready in 2001, CJB is not ready in the eyes of the coaches.
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We know Ferentz likes Rudock, but CJB is doing enough in practice to get Ferentz to feel like he needs to get him snaps in the game, so he must be doing something right.

Rudock is the safe choice, his floor is higher than Beathard's but his ceiling is a lot lower. Just like McCann and Banks. We will never have an above average offense while Rudock is under center though.
 
It's Rudock's job until he performs poorly in the games, period. Rudock wasn't the reason the UNI game was close (see defense, Hillyer fumble, Hamilton drop). Rudock wasn't the sole reason we struggled in the Ball State game (see fumble for touchdown, fake roughing punter, fumbled kick off, drop by Coble, lack of pass interference calls). He hasn't thrown the deep ball well agreed, but he's not the reason those games were close. What he did do is lead his team to victory in the 4th quarter, where one mistake or bad decision costs us the game.

Right now, Rudock is the known commodity and we can win games with him at QB, especially with the game on the line in the 4th quarter, which separates a lot of QB's from average game managers to very good. Unless he starts playing badly and throwing picks, you won't see CJ and that's the way it should be. The good thing is that I think he can improve the long ball...as I've heard from several sources he's thrown it well in practice.

Let the kid focus on what he needs to do to prepare for the other team, instead of focusing on why his coach is giving the back up a series in the first quarter. Dumbest thing I've ever seen when a guy has performed the way Rudock had to that point. There is no good outcome.
 
hawkinn3 said:
Nobody is as bad as Christensen, its not fair to compare anybody to him. Go back and watch those games if you can, you will be shaken for days afterwards. We all talk about Ruddock making safe short passes, well at least he complete almost all of those. Christensen couldn't make the easiest of throws with any consistency.
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I remember this all too well.
images
 
I just used btn2go to re-watch the game. I fast-forwarded through all of Iowa's offensive plays. I need to say that the body language of the receiving group (WR's & TE's) showed frustration for much of the game. JR missed badly on 4 deep balls (2 under and 2 over throws.) He also missed several wide open guys in lieu of a dump off. T. Smith and Hamilton seemed to be "missed" the most often. CJ may not manage the game as well as JR and KF may view CJ as too risky, because of this. But I see a brewing problem unless JR starts connecting long and not dumping the ball off too early. I mean, he missed so wide open guys in the middle of the field within 15 yards of the LOS, one was in the end zone.
 
Ferentz/GD is as much the offenses biggest obstacle as the 11 guys across the field from them. Iowa has the horses this year, they can have a 450 ypg/ 35+ ppg offense if they want. Kirk/GD just has to quit playing it uber safe. That's what I've noticed from the first two games anyway. This is not a year where the defense HAS to carry the offense like in year's past.
 
JonDMiller said:
HawkeyeMike23 said:
I really don't think it's even close to that.. Jake C couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, sad to say. He hit on 53% of his passes in 2007 when he was the starter, and less than 59% early 2008. Rudock is hitting nearly 70% of his passes so far, he's led his team to four comeback wins in his career as a starter, where Iowa has a 10-5 record in by the way.

Ricky Stanzi played a lot early that year...I think he played the equiv of one full game by the end of the Pitt game....Beathard has played one series, and when he played last year, he was hardly impressive save for the power of his arm.

This is his third year in the program now, and from what I hear, he is making many of the same mistakes or errors now than he did as a rookie....it doesn't inspire confidence from the staff. I am going to save some of the adjectives some (who are at practices often and who have played the game at the highest levels) have shared with me to describe his play at times. CJB wins the swimsuit competition but that don't win you the pageant on it's face...sure, it can turn a few heads but that isn't all that goes into being a quarterback. If it were, Dan McGwire would have beaten out Chuck Hartlieb and Tom Poholsky...but he didn't...and Hartlieb went on to be one of the most successful passers in Iowa history.

Stanzi did have better yards per attempt numbers than Jake R, and Jake R and Jake C yards per attempt are actually pretty close. I am not saying that there is only one way to go...and if CJB could make the right decisions consistently, he might be the guy...but he doesn't do that where it counts most to this coaching staff, and that is in practice.

But this really goes again the main theme that I see at play, and that is a mismatch with Davis...and that's not all on Davis, either.
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He's 10-5 against one of the weakest schedules the program has faced in two decades. I agree part of the problem is systemic, but he is missing open receivers. I'm willing to see what he can do against better opponents before I pass judgement, but I am not confident Jake will get any better. If he doesn't, 8 wins is the ceiling again this year.....which is sad. I hope I'm wrong.
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ArvadaHawk said:
I just used btn2go to re-watch the game. I fast-forwarded through all of Iowa's offensive plays. I need to say that the body language of the receiving group (WR's & TE's) showed frustration for much of the game. JR missed badly on 4 deep balls (2 under and 2 over throws.) He also missed several wide open guys in lieu of a dump off. T. Smith and Hamilton seemed to be "missed" the most often. CJ may not manage the game as well as JR and KF may view CJ as too risky, because of this. But I see a brewing problem unless JR starts connecting long and not dumping the ball off too early. I mean, he missed so wide open guys in the middle of the field within 15 yards of the LOS, one was in the end zone.
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How many times did he expose a receiver or rb in the flat? He is going to get somebody hurt.
 
I was frustrated with Rudock at times last week, but you know what?

We had horrible FG kicking, two bad fumbles, a crappy run game, and YES, he did look tentative and miss receivers deep. Having said that, he engineered drives that scored two TDs in less than three minutes. Last year they beat Michigan in a close game, and he threw a nice TD pass in OT to beat NW last year. He looked good v. Nebby last year when he was in there.

The guy wins. If he keeps winning, I'm okay with him in there. It can be frustrating at times, but I bet his teammates have confidence in him. I sit right next to the field at Kinnick, and it's the players' confidence in him that matters. I bet they're just fine with him right now.
 
2009, Ricky's second year

Iowa v UNI: Iowa gained just 104 yards in first half. Offense just 329 total yards, 17-16 win
Iowa at ISU: Stanzi 5.8YPA (but results; win, 4TD's)
Arizona at Iowa: Stanzi 20-32, 205 yards (6.4YPA), threw a pick six in a 10 point game
Arkansas State at Iowa: 24-21 win, Stanzi pick six, but also threw 3 TD
Iowa at MSU: One of the most memorable Iowa games in two decades for how it ended was an absolute bore until the final drive. Stanzi 11 of 27 for 138 yards, but game winning clutch drive. (5.1YPA)

17 T to 15 INT's that season...Iowa went 11-2 and won and Orange Bowl.

Ricky had a better deep ball than Jake...no doubt. But let's not forget that it wasn't all wine and roses with Ricky and the defense bailed him and the Hawkeyes out quite a bit...I think Jake is competent and capable, but certainly don't think CJB has done anything yet to deserve the depth of endorsement some are giving him. It's mostly just human nature for the upside of the unknown.
 
JonDMiller said:
http://hawkeyenation.com/football/hawkeye-offensive-struggles-systemic
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Good article Jon. I won't be surprised at all if this is a 8 win season. We have already had injuries to key players that may affect them the rest of the season. I agree that with Ferentz,he is perfectly happy to have an offense whose purpose is to play field position for his defense. He would be perfectly happy to score 3 points if it meant his dee could hold the other to 2. Winning 7 or 8 games and getting bowl eligible is the goal. Then get a better bowl because of Iowa's awsome fan following. Its boring footbal and if not getting to play 3 or 4 inferior opponents..likely would not have winning records.
 
BILLBUCKNER said:
Good article Jon. I won't be surprised at all if this is a 8 win season. We have already had injuries to key players that may affect them the rest of the season. I agree that with Ferentz,he is perfectly happy to have an offense whose purpose is to play field position for his defense. He would be perfectly happy to score 3 points if it meant his dee could hold the other to 2. Winning 7 or 8 games and getting bowl eligible is the goal. Then get a better bowl because of Iowa's awsome fan following. Its boring footbal and if not getting to play 3 or 4 inferior opponents..likely would not have winning records.
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It's strange to combine an offense who's main goal is to win field position with a defense that is willing to give up field position with 12 play drives in hopes that the other team shoots itself in the foot.
 
JonDMiller said:
2009, Ricky's second year

Iowa v UNI: Iowa gained just 104 yards in first half. Offense just 329 total yards, 17-16 win
Iowa at ISU: Stanzi 5.8YPA (but results; win, 4TD's)
Arizona at Iowa: Stanzi 20-32, 205 yards (6.4YPA), threw a pick six in a 10 point game
Arkansas State at Iowa: 24-21 win, Stanzi pick six, but also threw 3 TD
Iowa at MSU: One of the most memorable Iowa games in two decades for how it ended was an absolute bore until the final drive. Stanzi 11 of 27 for 138 yards, but game winning clutch drive. (5.1YPA)

17 T to 15 INT's that season...Iowa went 11-2 and won and Orange Bowl.

Ricky had a better deep ball than Jake...no doubt. But let's not forget that it wasn't all wine and roses with Ricky and the defense bailed him and the Hawkeyes out quite a bit...I think Jake is competent and capable, but certainly don't think CJB has done anything yet to deserve the depth of endorsement some are giving him. It's mostly just human nature for the upside of the unknown.
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But we saw Stanzi had the arm and balls, for lack of a better term, to be a big time college QB. His senior year, 3004 yds, 8.4 YPA, 25 TD/6 INT was so good in part because he had the experience of being a multiple year starter. I don't think Rudock has the arm and seems to be too risk averse to make the throws needed against big time defenses. I think he's a fine QB and a guy you can 8-9 games with if you give him a good defense and run game, but I don't see him being able to beat good teams who make you throw to beat them.

Michigan St. 241 Yds 5.2 YPA 2 TD/2 Int
Wisconsin 109 Yds 4.5 YPA 0 TD/1 Int
Michigan 239 Yds 7.9 YPA 2 TD/3 Int
LSU 102 Yds 4.6 YPA 0 TD/ 1 Int

I don't have a problem with him starting Rudock, it's the typical Ferentz conservative move. Playing another QB for a series in the first half over a returning starter just to get him snaps isn't a typical Ferentz move though, and there has to be a reason for it. My complete guess is that someone on the staff is pushing for it because Beathard definitely has a higher ceiling than Rudock and is the guy who needs to be playing if we want to have a shot at winning the division, KF knows it too, but just can't pull the trigger on such an untypical move for him.
 
JonDMiller said:
You're going to get into psychology now?

He's 10-5 as a starter. He has some road wins including at Nebraska. He's very smart and executes mostly what the coaches want. CJB is not doing those things consistently in practice. Things like this are a big waste of time and also mostly baseless. Jake has a large body of work and has had success. CJB has thrown 30 passes and has completed less than 38% of them. He's had an entire offseason to do the things and run the system to coaches want. But he isn't there.

So everyone can want the cannon. It's always something people want in the backup. But just like Banks wasn't ready in 2001, CJB is not ready in the eyes of the coaches.
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Uh, Jon, I believe Thunder said he was "vindicated" in regard to Banks. Straight from the horse's as...er, "mouth".
 
A short, quick passing offense is incompatible with a power running game. Both elements are best defended by a D that brings its linebackers and safeties up close to the LOS.

If you want to use a power running game, you have to combine that with deep passes and passes to the middle and playaction that pull back the safeties and LBs and gives space for runs up the middle.

Our current O mashup is the worst of both worlds.

(of CJB's 3 passes, 1 was to a LB over the middle, and 1 was deep. He was running the passing O that will open the running game.)
 
ArvadaHawk said:
I just used btn2go to re-watch the game. I fast-forwarded through all of Iowa's offensive plays. I need to say that the body language of the receiving group (WR's & TE's) showed frustration for much of the game. JR missed badly on 4 deep balls (2 under and 2 over throws.) He also missed several wide open guys in lieu of a dump off. T. Smith and Hamilton seemed to be "missed" the most often. CJ may not manage the game as well as JR and KF may view CJ as too risky, because of this. But I see a brewing problem unless JR starts connecting long and not dumping the ball off too early. I mean, he missed so wide open guys in the middle of the field within 15 yards of the LOS, one was in the end zone.
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Nothing screams "expertise" like fast-forwarding through a replay on BTN2Go.
 
hawkeyebob62 said:
Uh, Jon, I believe Thunder said he was "vindicated" in regard to Banks. Straight from the horse's as...er, "mouth".
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When people say Banks wasn't ready, what they really mean is Banks wasn't "Kirk Ferentz" ready. Allot of D1 coaches probably would have went with Banks and lived with the mistakes.
 
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