Merged - Big 12 Aftermath Thread

People here are acting like the Big Ten and PAC 12 have to take these teams floundering in the Big 12.

The B1G ain't taking anyone it can't make money on, and I.S.Who isn't a team that's going to bring anything to the table. There's zero reason for the B1G to dilute it's brand with anyone other than ND (ain't gonna happen) or some other nationally watched program that gets a lot of TV eyeballs. This is 100% about advertising money, folks. Period, dot. That's what fills the coffers.

The people saying ISU will go G5 are also wrong (in a sense). G5 schools will join up with the B12 sloppy seconds, but they'll just keep calling it the Big 12 and it will be an also-ran conference

If you guys think ISU going to the B1G is a real possibility, then you can't see the forest for the trees. Understandable because most of us are geographically close to Lames, but there are 13 other teams in our conference with a say in this thing who don't give a F about Iowa State and barely know they exist other than having a coach who made a few headlines last year.

The Big 12 will still be around minus a few of the better teams like OK St and Kansas, albeit a neutered, watered-down G5-ish conference.

Anyone thinking of Iowa State to the Big Ten needs to understand basic division. Let us assume just for round number purposes that we add a 15th team other than ISU and that team is revenue neutral. Let us assume that after adding that 15th team, and just using round numbers that the total media revenue is $450 million.

Take 450/15. The result is 30 (the real number is higher, but I'm using 30 for ease).

You add Iowa State. The numerator in the equation has to get to at least 480 because 480/16=30. Iowa State adds 0 to BTN revenues. They don't afford any further negotiating leverage. You're basically left with 450/16, which is $28.125 million. It would cost every member school close to $2 million to add Iowa State. That is why it ain't freaking happening.

The more I think about this, the more I think that unless the B1G can land UCLA and USC, there's not a compelling reason to go to 16. Maybe a case can be made for KU and Colorado or Arizona and Arizona State. But those are it and the latter two pairings are scraping the bottom of what the B1G should ever consider. Outside of those, nothing is going to happen to the Big Ten.

The move for the B1G was to get Texas and Oklahoma. We got scooped. Unless USC and UCLA join, there's nothing that makes sense from a football perspective.
 
Anyway, yesterday I would have agreed with you that worst case would be raiding the AAC, but now I think worst case is you try to raid the AAC and they say "hell no" and you wind up having to raid the MWAC. Sorry to be a downer, but I actually think that is in the realm of possibility. I still think it would be more likely than not that Houston and SMU would want to pair up with Tech and Baylor, but I don't think it is an absolute slam dunk.
This. I can't see why ISU fans think this is even a possibility.

What even remotely makes an anemic, black hole of a conference as a Texas and Oklahoma-less B12 more appealing than where they are now? TV money? Lolsies. There isn't going to be that money once the two big brothers leave.

And also to the Clones who think they have 4 years to feel this thing out: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Texas and Oklahoma knew exactly the kind of penalty money they'd have to fork over when they started talking about doing this, and they both have enough money and the inclination to do it right now. They gone, Clown fans...they GONE....

You think UT and OK want to continue playing in that shit conference for 4 more years as lame ducks knowing that their games and conference title "aspirations" are as worthless as hen shit on a pump handle? No fuckin way.
 
This. I can't see why ISU fans think this is even a possibility.

What even remotely makes an anemic, black hole of a conference as a Texas and Oklahoma-less B12 more appealing than where they are now? TV money? Lolsies. There isn't going to be that money once the two big brothers leave.

And also to the Clones who think they have 4 years to feel this thing out: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Texas and Oklahoma knew exactly the kind of penalty money they'd have to fork over when they started talking about doing this, and they both have enough money and the inclination to do it right now. They gone, Clown fans...they GONE....

You think UT and OK want to continue playing in that shit conference for 4 more years as lame ducks knowing that their games and conference title "aspirations" are as worthless as hen shit on a pump handle? No fuckin way.
Fox went heavy on the Big 12 contract. They are in the drivers seat on this. If they are willing to gamble on siphoning Cincinnati, UCF and Houston away from ESPN, they will stroke a check to the Big 12 to do it. If Fox wants to add content that has the potential to be tier one content, I think that is about their only hope. The problem is that even if Fox came with a deal that guaranteed each Big 12 school $20 million in the aggregate, they would still be light years behind the SEC and Big Ten.

The landscape of who is good will definitely change. No one could have seen Clemson being a perennial national power 20 years ago. No one could have imagined Tennessee, Michigan, Miami and Nebraska would all but disappear 20 years ago. The Big 12 and Fox can make a gamble on UCF and Houston and that is about their only play to have a relevant football conference in 10 years. It is not an enviable position, but it really comes down to whether Fox wants to pay for content and then hope that it becomes worthwhile. Who knows, maybe they will follow NBC's path with NBCSN and close the sports network (FS1) because it fell short of the lofty expectations it was launched with and never developed into a formidable competitor to ESPN.
 
Supposedly UCF has grown into one of the largest schools in the country and some of their fans are super rabid and want UCF to be right up there with Florida for football. That is going to be a wildcard.

I had heard this about UCF before, and it seemed strange, but according to Wikipedia, they have the largest enrollment of any school in the US. 71,913 undergrad. Next in line are TxAM, tOSU, Florida, and Georgia.

Looking at that list makes you feel just how small U of Iowa really is.
 
I had heard this about UCF before, and it seemed strange, but according to Wikipedia, they have the largest enrollment of any school in the US. 71,913 undergrad. Next in line are TxAM, tOSU, Florida, and Georgia.

Looking at that list makes you feel just how small U of Iowa really is.

Holy shit, it's that big? Wow, well if I were an administrator there and looked at the peer schools' football teams I would set my sights pretty damned high as well. They could be a factor in the next 20 years.
 
The thing that I think a lot of folks are overlooking is the effect this has on ISU and other schools immediately, not just a few years down the road.

This is absolutely horrible for their near term recruiting. If my kid is getting recruited by ISU and say, Minnesota, there's no way in hell that I'm telling him ISU is a good bet, no matter how much campbell is trying to sell me on ISU being a fast-rising star of a program. campbell can't even answer the question of what conference ISU will be playing in in two years, let alone whether it'll even be P5. Hell, it might not even be nationally televised if they breed with the AAC.

How do you get anyone to sign with your squad who has other P5 offers?
 
The thing that I think a lot of folks are overlooking is the effect this has on ISU and other schools immediately, not just a few years down the road.

This is absolutely horrible for their near term recruiting. If my kid is getting recruited by ISU and say, Minnesota, there's no way in hell that I'm telling him ISU is a good bet, no matter how much campbell is trying to sell me on ISU being a fast-rising star of a program. campbell can't even answer the question of what conference ISU will be playing in in two years, let alone whether it'll even be P5. Hell, it might not even be nationally televised if they breed with the AAC.

How do you get anyone to sign with your squad who has other P5 offers?
Is "Conference Implosion" a covered reason to release a kid from an LOI? Like a coaching change or something?
 
If ISWho gets sent to the minors because of this whole deal which is somewhat likely, wouldn't the CyHawk game get permanently moved to Iowa City?

Which makes sense because having Hawk fans travel to Ames High for a football game after ISU can't afford to keep Trice open would get a little cramped.

Bad thing is we'd have to pay them for the game like we do North Texas.
 
If ISWho gets sent to the minors because of this whole deal which is somewhat likely, wouldn't the CyHawk game get permanently moved to Iowa City?

Which makes sense because having Hawk fans travel to Ames High for a football game after ISU can't afford to keep Trice open would get a little cramped.

Bad thing is we'd have to pay them for the game like we do North Texas.

Okay, here is what a Clemson superfan just told me he wants to see:

ND and WV to ACC.

Big Ten poaches USC, UCLA, Standford, Arizona, Berkeley, Oregon and Washington

Turd leftovers from Big 8 and Pac 10 form own conference that gets grouped with G5 for playoffs

Big Ten forms 3 x 7 divisions to keep the west coast teams together

Big Ten, ACC and SEC can each put up to 4 teams in the playoffs

ACC, B1G and SEC champs get auto bye in playoff

Whatever sort of "Big Ten Central Division" formed would be just absolute dogshit and I think it could help Iowa potentially get into the playoff.
 
Okay, here is what a Clemson superfan just told me he wants to see:

ND and WV to ACC.

Big Ten poaches USC, UCLA, Standford, Arizona, Berkeley, Oregon and Washington

Turd leftovers from Big 8 and Pac 10 form own conference that gets grouped with G5 for playoffs

Big Ten forms 3 x 7 divisions to keep the west coast teams together

Big Ten, ACC and SEC can each put up to 4 teams in the playoffs

ACC, B1G and SEC champs get auto bye in playoff

Whatever sort of "Big Ten Central Division" formed would be just absolute dogshit and I think it could help Iowa potentially get into the playoff.
That turd leftover conference would likely be worse than some existing G5 conferences, especially after a year or two of no P5 money. Recruiting would be almost non-existent for an ISU/Baylor/TT/etc football. Leaving P5 is an automatic death sentence to an athletic department that already has P5 facilities to pay for.

One thing to keep in mind is Kansas ain't going anywhere that isn't P5. their basketball program is worth huge bucks to any conference. If this thing blows up and they aren't taken by the B1G, they'll be adopted by the Big East and say F football. Creighton did it.

I say Warren should do whatever possible to get Kansas picked up. That basketball TV money ain't no small thang and it'd be good for the conference overall. Boot Rutgers and send Purdue east.
 
That turd leftover conference would likely be worse than some existing G5 conferences, especially after a year or two of no P5 money. Recruiting would be almost non-existent for an ISU/Baylor/TT/etc football. Leaving P5 is an automatic death sentence to an athletic department that already has P5 facilities to pay for.

One thing to keep in mind is Kansas ain't going anywhere that isn't P5. their basketball program is worth huge bucks to any conference. If this thing blows up and they aren't taken by the B1G, they'll be adopted by the Big East and say F football. Creighton did it.

I say Warren should do whatever possible to get Kansas picked up. That basketball TV money ain't no small thang and it'd be good for the conference overall. Boot Rutgers and send Purdue east.

I think you're wildly overestimating the value of hoops, breh. If the B1G can't pull a coup on the PAC 10 then I could maybe see KU being a viable add. But at the end of the day, I think we need USC and Oregon to have a fighting chance against the super SEC in football titles.
 
I talked to a buddy about raiding the AAC last night. Dude said it is probably a coin toss as to whether the AAC is worth more or the Big 12 is worth more once the UT and OU residuals wear off. I went in thinking it was a no brainer for UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and maybe one more to join the Big 12 and this dude said that UCF and Houston probably have better economic and sports prospects than the remainder of the Big 12, which is left with really only one marquee program in Kansas hoops.

He told me that UCF is dumping ungodly money into football and that with NIL the second tier Florida and Texas schools are going to have a shot at locking out all but the most elite Midwest programs from recruiting down there. Supposedly UCF has grown into one of the largest schools in the country and some of their fans are super rabid and want UCF to be right up there with Florida for football. That is going to be a wildcard.

I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that even if the Big 12 added 4-6 solid AAC teams that it would still be "P5." And if I'm UCF, I don't know why I would make the move. If Houston, SMU and UCF are all decent in football, I could see them wanting to settle it among themselves. They certainly have a much better population footprint to work with than the Big 12.

Anyway, yesterday I would have agreed with you that worst case would be raiding the AAC, but now I think worst case is you try to raid the AAC and they say "hell no" and you wind up having to raid the MWAC. Sorry to be a downer, but I actually think that is in the realm of possibility. I still think it would be more likely than not that Houston and SMU would want to pair up with Tech and Baylor, but I don't think it is an absolute slam dunk.

Your buddy is way over estimating the value of the AAC compared to the remaining Big 12. The real question is which would be the better conference top to bottom and the AAC has more dead weight that the Big 12 does not want like Tulsa, Tulane, Temope, ECU. But the AAC would take any of the schools in the Big 12 without hesitation. It just makes more sense for the Big 12 to grab the best teams from the AAC than the other way around.

If you are Houston and Cincy and had your choice of Conferences, which would rather have in your conference? OkST or Tulsa?

Plus football attendence in the remaining Big 12 is much higher than the AAC. ISU, OkST, TT are all over 50k. The AAC just can't compare.
 
Your buddy is way over estimating the value of the AAC compared to the remaining Big 12.
Wrong.

Your assumption is based on the B12 as it sits now. Once UT and OK leave there’s no money left, and once there’s no money left those schools remaining are no different than those AAC schools. You think any of those leftover B12 schools are going to be able to recruit at a P5 level after this, let alone afford to operate?
 
Wrong.

Your assumption is based on the B12 as it sits now. Once UT and OK leave there’s no money left, and once there’s no money left those schools remaining are no different than those AAC schools. You think any of those leftover B12 schools are going to be able to recruit at a P5 level after this, let alone afford to operate?

Nah, there's a good point he's making. The bottom of the AAC is utter trash. And to get more TV money, the AAC teams will have to leave bince they sold media rights for another decade. The problem is the top of the Big 12 is trash, and possibly worse than the top of the AAC. It would be an interesting discussion.
 
Kansas is worth way more than Creighton and they went that direction. Not only did it go that direction, it works out fabulously for them.

Creighton left the MVC for the Big East. That's a great deal for them. They didn't have a P5 football program to worry about.

The arms race for facilities in football could have really saddled some of these schools with unservicable debt. Oklahoma State spent a fortune and when oil tanked I think the T. Boone gift went "poof." There have to be some assholes puckered so tight right now at some of these schools that they could turn carbon dust into diamonds.
 
Nah, there's a good point he's making. The bottom of the AAC is utter trash. And to get more TV money, the AAC teams will have to leave bince they sold media rights for another decade. The problem is the top of the Big 12 is trash, and possibly worse than the top of the AAC. It would be an interesting discussion.
An OK and UT-less Big 12 is not too much different than the AAC. We can agree that they both have trash at the bottom, but arguing which trash is more trashy is moot. Their top few schools are very even talent-wise.

AAC schools also don't have a fraction of the overheads, salary, and facilities expense that B12 athletic departments do. However it shakes out, without big TV deals and membership in a (legit, not fake news like the new B12) P5 conference there's no way these guys continue operating the way they do now. That leads to not being able to afford guys like Campbell, which leads to a vacuum in recruiting, which makes them G5 schools in short order.
 
Creighton left the MVC for the Big East. That's a great deal for them. They didn't have a P5 football program to worry about.
Neither does Kansas if the survival of the basketball program hinges on it. Again, either way you slice it there's zero chance Kansas doesn't land a P5 gig or at the very least P6 in hoops.
 
When it comes to the timeline of when UT and OU will move to SEC I don't see it being in 4 yrs. Maybe even next yr is my guess. I think the SEC would gladly front the buyout $ of 80 large to get em in most likely. Have schools pay it back over time or whatever and it wouldn't take all that long. BIG 12 will fight that tooth and nail I suppose but good luck $ talks and is what it is. The rest of the BIG 12 will get that little parting gift from them and that'll be that. The musical chairs has began
 
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