Merged - Big 12 Aftermath Thread

[ChosenChildren]

Fascinating topic and lots of strong opinions from the usual suspects.

It's obvious to me that the SEC will spend any amount of money and do whatever is necessary to win football games. Without NCAA rules (which is where we find ourselves now), there is no limit to what the SEC will do.

But what about some of the non-SEC schools that are still strong academic institutions? For example, what about Michigan, which took a pretty strong position during the COVID crisis, trying to protect the health of the players? Is Michigan going to chase the SEC in the new "arms race?" Or will they pressure the Big Ten to put some limits on NIL? Will Michigan push the Big Ten to adopt its own rules, ignoring what the SEC does?

 

[okeefe4prez]

An OK and UT-less Big 12 is not too much different than the AAC. We can agree that they both have trash at the bottom, but arguing which trash is more trashy is moot. Their top few schools are very even talent-wise.

AAC schools also don't have a fraction of the overheads, salary, and facilities expense that B12 athletic departments do. However it shakes out, without big TV deals and membership in a (legit, not fake news like the new B12) P5 conference there's no way these guys continue operating the way they do now. That leads to not being able to afford guys like Campbell, which leads to a vacuum in recruiting, which makes them G5 schools in short order.

One article projected shared media revenue in the Big 8 at roughly $9 million per team per year once the Exodus occurs. The AAC is like a little over $7 million per team per year. Dabo makes $8.3 million per year. Venables makes around $2.5 million. Seeing that just an HC and DC of a top tier program would exceed the projected media share has to be uncomfortable. Clemson is a way smaller school than Iowa State, too.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Neither does Kansas if the survival of the basketball program hinges on it. Again, either way you slice it there's zero chance Kansas doesn't land a P5 gig or at the very least P6 in hoops.

KU hoops will be fine and will definitely find a landing pad. They better pray they didn't borrow like $80 million building football facilities and stadium improvements, though.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Fascinating topic and lots of strong opinions from the usual suspects.

It's obvious to me that the SEC will spend any amount of money and do whatever is necessary to win football games. Without NCAA rules (which is where we find ourselves now), there is no limit to what the SEC will do.

But what about some of the non-SEC schools that are still strong academic institutions? For example, what about Michigan, which took a pretty strong position during the COVID crisis, trying to protect the health of the players? Is Michigan going to chase the SEC in the new "arms race?" Or will they pressure the Big Ten to put some limits on NIL? Will Michigan push the Big Ten to adopt its own rules, ignoring what the SEC does?

There are three P5 schools who care about academics within the athletic department, not just lip service. They are Northwestern, Standford and Vanderbilt. Maybe Cal does as well, depending on who the coach is and how the team looks. Duke cares somewhat, but would take a player like Zion no matter what his academic stature is.

Michigan just uses academics as cover. Same with Notre Dame.

It's shit or get off the pot time for the schools. Once the CBS game of the week deal ends and the new deal kicks in, the SEC will have passed the B1G in revenue. Texas will grow that pot even more. No matter what some wonk at Michigan says, the football and basketball teams yield big fucking money and help with marketing the broader university and non-athletic fundraising. No way in hell they want to sit there and watch the demographics shift to the south and just hope and pray that everything works out in the end because it won't.

 

[Fryowa]

Or will they pressure the Big Ten to put some limits on NIL? Will Michigan push the Big Ten to adopt its own rules, ignoring what the SEC does?

NIL was settled unanimously by the Supreme Court. The Big Ten can't say shit about it.

Restricting NIL would create one of the biggest class actions this country has ever seen. Completely fucking left field to even consider that.

 

[Motigerhawk]

I read somewhere (here?) that the B1Gs best gets out of the PAC 12 would be UW, ASU, Colorado, and USC.

That gets you Seattle, Phoenix, Denver and Seattle and you own like 17 of the top 25 TV markets in the nation.

Throw in Cal and Stanford for academics and bring along Oregon and Nike. That is a fantastic conference.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I read somewhere (here?) that the B1Gs best gets out of the PAC 12 would be UW, ASU, Colorado, and USC.

That gets you Seattle, Phoenix, Denver and Seattle and you own like 17 of the top 25 TV markets in the nation.

Throw in Cal and Stanford for academics and bring along Oregon and Nike. That is a fantastic conference.

Yeah, I am warming up to the super conference idea. If you could jettison the turds out of the PAC and then re-cut a deal with Fox and ESPN for the new and improved B1G it could overpower the SEC's media deal. And if you had a 3x7 and went to 10 conference games (would goose the media deal) you could guarantee seeing everyone once every 3 years and protect some semblance of regional rivalry.

 

[ssckelley]

I thought the Big Ten and the Pac 12 commissioners were tight? Perhaps they use this opportunity to merge into a super conference? Poaching from them doesn't sound very nice.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I thought the Big Ten and the Pac 12 commissioners were tight? Perhaps they use this opportunity to merge into a super conference? Poaching from them doesn't sound very nice.

You have to poach. It is a must. Without poaching, the denominator for splitting the revenue is too big and the merger would not be accretive. Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern bring very little to the conference table in the form of money so we need to hope the conference becomes an impenetrable wall of awesomeness without dead weight like Washington State or these stench infested Big 12 leftovers.

 

[ohhawk]

Des Moines Register 7/27/21

No policy prescribing the Iowa Board of Regents’ involvement in situations like this doesn’t automatically mean they won’t be involved. You can rest assured they will have more than passing interest, considering realignment’s result could affect the schools’ financial bottom line.

“If there were a seismic event that would threaten the school’s ability to be in one of the big conferences, you can bet the Board of Regents will be deeply involved,” former Iowa Board of Regents president Michael Gartner told The Register. “If something seismic occurs, I believe the Board of Regents would step in.”
__________________________________________________________

Only gets more complicated and I'm not sure what the Board could do to help ISU's prospects if they're not invited to one of the "big conferences".

 

[Fryowa]

Des Moines Register 7/27/21

No policy prescribing the Iowa Board of Regents’ involvement in situations like this doesn’t automatically mean they won’t be involved. You can rest assured they will have more than passing interest, considering realignment’s result could affect the schools’ financial bottom line.

“If there were a seismic event that would threaten the school’s ability to be in one of the big conferences, you can bet the Board of Regents will be deeply involved,” former Iowa Board of Regents president Michael Gartner told The Register. “If something seismic occurs, I believe the Board of Regents would step in.”
__________________________________________________________

Only gets more complicated and I'm not sure what the Board could do to help ISU's prospects if they're not invited to one of the "big conferences".

Step in and do what, exactly? That's a lot of hubris to think they can just go bang on the door in Indy Chicago and get ISU added to the B1G.

Ultimate Karen move.

 

[Fryowa]

You have to poach. It is a must. Without poaching, the denominator for splitting the revenue is too big and the merger would not be accretive. Iowa, Nebraska and Northwestern bring very little to the conference table in the form of money so we need to hope the conference becomes an impenetrable wall of awesomeness without dead weight like Washington State or these stench infested Big 12 leftovers.

Would definitely send the ticket prices through the fucking roof.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Step in and do what, exactly? That's a lot of hubris to think they can just go bang on the door in Indy and get ISU added to the B1G.

Ultimate Karen move.

The B1G offices are in Chicago or maybe Park Ridge. Maybe they were in Park Ridge and moved downtown. I forget, but they ain't in Indy.

Irregardless, you're exactly right. There's nothing a lot of these teams can do, even politically. Say the legislature in Iowa passed a bill mandating that if Iowa is in a conference the conference has to take Iowa State. How, exactly, would that play out? I'll fucking tell you. It would play out with an emergency meeting of the schools with one agenda item, namely the removal of Iowa from the conference. Great!

Say the B1G manages "The Big Poach" and can siphon 6 or 7 jewels out of the Pac 10. Now say the Washington legislature says "if you take Washington you have to take Washington State." Big Ten will call Washington and say "hey, we got some letter from some asshat, we presume it's fake, but just wanted to give you a heads up that the Washington state government is trying to strongarm us into taking Washington State, but that ain't in the revenue model so make this problem go away in 48 hours or else we're gonna have to go another direction...without you."

There are a handful of marquee schools where I think the legislature could push a political shotgun wedding and the list is really damned short. Texas, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio. Maybe California but I don't think they would even raise a stink about reorg out in California and USC is the crown jewel there and it's private.

 

[ssckelley]

The B1G offices are in Chicago or maybe Park Ridge. Maybe they were in Park Ridge and moved downtown. I forget, but they ain't in Indy.

Irregardless, you're exactly right. There's nothing a lot of these teams can do, even politically. Say the legislature in Iowa passed a bill mandating that if Iowa is in a conference the conference has to take Iowa State. How, exactly, would that play out? I'll fucking tell you. It would play out with an emergency meeting of the schools with one agenda item, namely the removal of Iowa from the conference. Great!

Say the B1G manages "The Big Poach" and can siphon 6 or 7 jewels out of the Pac 10. Now say the Washington legislature says "if you take Washington you have to take Washington State." Big Ten will call Washington and say "hey, we got some letter from some asshat, we presume it's fake, but just wanted to give you a heads up that the Washington state government is trying to strongarm us into taking Washington State, but that ain't in the revenue model so make this problem go away in 48 hours or else we're gonna have to go another direction...without you."

There are a handful of marquee schools where I think the legislature could push a political shotgun wedding and the list is really damned short. Texas, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio. Maybe California but I don't think they would even raise a stink about reorg out in California and USC is the crown jewel there and it's private.

Yep, this is exactly right. Iowa would be out of the conference on our ass.

It seems like I remember the State of Kansas doing this years ago and it kept the Big Ten from ever seriously considering Kansas saying if they took Kansas then they'd have to take KSU. Or am I imagining this?

Could the Board of Regents force Iowa to share their revenues with Iowa State? But then that wouldn't seem fair to UNI.

 

[guffus]

the Big 12 football attendance numbers and national rank.

80 Kansas 26650
48 TCU 44720
47 Baylor 44774.80
38 Kansas State 51827
37 Iowa State 55042
36 Oklahoma State 55240
31 West Virginia 56639
29 Texas Tech 56924
---
13 Oklahoma 86126
8 Texas 94,754.60

I will give the AAC numbers in a later post.

 

[guffus]

Football attendence numbers and national rank for schools from the AAC

103 Tulsa 18812
91 SMU 21122
90 Tulane 21122
75 Temple 30108
71 Cincinnati 31694
69 Navy 32565
68 Houston 32733
66 USF 32945
63 UCF 34814
61 Memphis 36295
57 East Carolina 40361

 

[Motigerhawk]

Raid the PAC12. The SEC has no morals, lets get down in the sewer with them.

 

[BryceC]

the Big 12 football attendance numbers and national rank.

80 Kansas 26650
48 TCU 44720
47 Baylor 44774.80
38 Kansas State 51827
37 Iowa State 55042
36 Oklahoma State 55240
31 West Virginia 56639
29 Texas Tech 56924
---
13 Oklahoma 86126
8 Texas 94,754.60

I will give the AAC numbers in a later post.

When are these from? They aren't from 2019, which was the last time we had real figures.

All of this talk about raiding the Pac 12 just bums me out more as an ISU fan. The 2019 figures had ISU with an average attendance of 59,794, #21, right behind... you guys actually.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2019.pdf

Only Washington from the Pac 12 had a higher attendance than ISU and USC is the only other Pac 12 member in the top 30.

Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, UCLA, Utah, Oregon St., Stanford, and Washington State all averaged less than 50k fans per game. That's 9 of the 12 schools.

Of the remaining 8 Big 12 schools, the average attendance is 49,378. The Pac 12 average attendance is 46,080.

I know a lot of you guys hate ISU fans but there are going to be some good fanbases who generally care about college sports that are going to be left out of this thing when it all shakes out and there are going to be some absolutely trash fanbases that are going to be left in out of pure dumb luck.

 

[Fryowa]

Raid the PAC12. The SEC has no morals, lets get down in the sewer with them.

No one’s raiding anything. All of these teams have conference clauses in place that prevent them from leaving, and none of them in the PAC12 have the money not a destination conference willing to buy that out. Ain’t happening.

 

[okeefe4prez]

No one’s raiding anything. All of these teams have conference clauses in place that prevent them from leaving, and none of them in the PAC12 have the money not a destination conference willing to buy that out. Ain’t happening.

I think the Pac 10 is raidable because they didn't partner with anyone on their conference network so the buyout is manageable, particularly in light of how shitty their media revenues are. I think the buyout clauses for the specialized networks really stack up the damages, but the Big 12 ain't got one and the Pac 12 reserved all of its own rights and didn't partner with ESPN or Fox, which is why their conference network sucks ass and wasn't forced onto all the cable companies and streaming services through a tying arrangement that makes a shitload of money for the member schools.