Merged - Big 12 Aftermath Thread

Fryowa

Administrator
How many schools would the league plan on expanding to? I think that question should need to be answered first. I mean are they looking to go crazy and add 6 more? Or just a couple or something inbetween. If it's like 6 or more then yeah maybe ISU and that level of program would inevitably have to be on the table due to geography more then anything. But they sure as hell aren't on any ones top 5 lists...
The scuttlebutt on CyFan and on Twitter is saying that if they dissolve the B12 and ISU doesn’t go B1G that they might land in the American Conference.

Which would be absolutely hilarious
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
I've always wanted the B1G to add Pitt. Seems a very comparable school and competitive athletics. Would PSU object?

There is not a single good reason to add Pitt to the conference, they don't add to the BTN footprint and they are not a big name. Besides it sounds like it would be very expensive to leave the ACC.
 

haydensly

Well-Known Member
I saw one news report that said that the B1G was looking to add schools only if the school had membership in the AAU. The one exception was Notre Dame. So the only schools in the Big 12 that would qualify are Kansas and Iowa State.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
Alabama at #48 seems crazy. I feel like they've dominated the last 2 decades, but I guess they really haven't.
We weren't very good before Nick got to Tuscaloosa. Things are good now, but it was a long drought between Stallings' title and the Nick years. It's not all roses.
 

ssckelley

Well-Known Member
I saw one news report that said that the B1G was looking to add schools only if the school had membership in the AAU. The one exception was Notre Dame. So the only schools in the Big 12 that would qualify are Kansas and Iowa State.

Being a AAU member helps but I don't think it's a requirement anymore or else they wouldn't be considering Oklahoma St. If being a AAU school is a requirement then that limits their expansion options considerably. There are only 64 of them in the US.

 

tweeterhawk

Well-Known Member
Does the B1G need to do anything (other than, perhaps, to make sure Ohio State and Michigan stay put)?

The league has a good TV product, makes tons of money, occasionally competes for national titles in football and basketball. Perhaps it's enough to maintain the status quo, let the Big12 fall apart, snatch up the best pieces and let the rest fend for itself.
 

tweeterhawk

Well-Known Member
Hot sports takes here, especially as it relates to teh B1G:

Big Ten is on the clock​

With Texas and Oklahoma on board, the SEC will at least have the potential to pass the Big Ten as the No. 1 revenue conference.

That almost compels the Big Ten to act. Its teams earn more than $50 million per year between TV rights, Big Ten Network money, bowl payouts and NCAA Tournament revenues. Its media rights contracts expire next year, so even without adding teams, the Big Ten and its members are due for a windfall.

But which teams out there add "pro rata"? In other words, which teams are worth proportional value of $50 million-plus per year?


The biggest remaining chips on the realignment board are Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and USC. The Buckeyes and Wolverines aren't going anywhere. Notre Dame has shown no indication of assimilating into the ACC permanently after playing there (successfully, mind you) in 2020 due to COVID-19.

It's conceivable the big cigars at USC, tired of the underachieving Pac-12, could be interested in joining the Big Ten. That gives the Trojans better access to the playoff and certainly more money.

Such a move would probably involve getting travel partners in Washington, Colorado and possibly Arizona State. That would bring the Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver and Phoenix markets into the Big Ten. What would UCLA and Oregon (and Nike) have to say about that?


Don't sweat the travel. Geography ceased to matter in realignment long ago. Think of a West Coast scheduling "pod" that could include USC, Washington, Colorado, Arizona State, Nebraska and Iowa.

That's the next potential blockbuster, at least comparable to what the SEC just did. That's a Big Ten with conceivably seven of the top 16 TV markets in the country stretching coast-to-coast. Before all this occurred, Rutgers was handed a document from the Big Ten during its assimilation into the league. It stated the league's per school revenue would be $67 million by 2027. Now try to imagine if the West Coast joined in.

Kevin Warren being a rookie commissioner who struggled to align the Big Ten around COVID-19, it's hard to envision such a massive move for the conference. But with Texas' interest in the SEC spurred by a powerful board of regents chair, there are powerful forces above commissioners that could make this happen.

 

haydensly

Well-Known Member
Being a AAU member helps but I don't think it's a requirement anymore or else they wouldn't be considering Oklahoma St. If being a AAU school is a requirement then that limits their expansion options considerably. There are only 64 of them in the US.

The report that I read was from another site and I only saw it because it popped up on Facebook. So take it for what it's worth. Of course, it quoted "sources" but who knows how good the information is. And that can be said for a lot of the stories that these sites are digging up on this issue right now.
 

guffus

Well-Known Member
The Big 12 will survive. They are stronger than the American even without Tex and Ok. They will add 2-6 teams from the AAC and will still be the 5th ranked conference in FBS. They just won't be called a power conference anymore. From now on there will be only 2 power conferences, the SEC a clear #1 and Big Ten a clear #2.

Its not the end of the world. The Big 12 will have their choice of Hou, Cincy, UCF, USF, Memphis and BYU. If the plan is still to expand the CFP to have 12 teams total with the top 6 conference champions, included, the Big 12 champion will still make the playoffs 8 out of 10 years. Its going to be ok.
 

guffus

Well-Known Member
I am ok with the idea of the Big Ten not expanding with the clear understanding that the SEC will be considered the #1 conference going forward. As long as Ohio State, Mich, and PSU are also ok with that, then the Big Ten should be fine.
 

rdawsoniii

Well-Known Member
I am thinking the Big 10 will not expand for the time being. Big 12 will add a few middling schools. Campbell will leave after this season to coach Michigan or Penn State.
 

CP87

Well-Known Member
Hot sports takes here, especially as it relates to teh B1G:

Big Ten is on the clock​

With Texas and Oklahoma on board, the SEC will at least have the potential to pass the Big Ten as the No. 1 revenue conference.

That almost compels the Big Ten to act. Its teams earn more than $50 million per year between TV rights, Big Ten Network money, bowl payouts and NCAA Tournament revenues. Its media rights contracts expire next year, so even without adding teams, the Big Ten and its members are due for a windfall.

But which teams out there add "pro rata"? In other words, which teams are worth proportional value of $50 million-plus per year?


The biggest remaining chips on the realignment board are Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and USC. The Buckeyes and Wolverines aren't going anywhere. Notre Dame has shown no indication of assimilating into the ACC permanently after playing there (successfully, mind you) in 2020 due to COVID-19.

It's conceivable the big cigars at USC, tired of the underachieving Pac-12, could be interested in joining the Big Ten. That gives the Trojans better access to the playoff and certainly more money.

Such a move would probably involve getting travel partners in Washington, Colorado and possibly Arizona State. That would bring the Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver and Phoenix markets into the Big Ten. What would UCLA and Oregon (and Nike) have to say about that?


Don't sweat the travel. Geography ceased to matter in realignment long ago. Think of a West Coast scheduling "pod" that could include USC, Washington, Colorado, Arizona State, Nebraska and Iowa.

That's the next potential blockbuster, at least comparable to what the SEC just did. That's a Big Ten with conceivably seven of the top 16 TV markets in the country stretching coast-to-coast. Before all this occurred, Rutgers was handed a document from the Big Ten during its assimilation into the league. It stated the league's per school revenue would be $67 million by 2027. Now try to imagine if the West Coast joined in.

Kevin Warren being a rookie commissioner who struggled to align the Big Ten around COVID-19, it's hard to envision such a massive move for the conference. But with Texas' interest in the SEC spurred by a powerful board of regents chair, there are powerful forces above commissioners that could make this happen.


Andy Staples of The Athletic also suggests raiding the Pac-12:

But his targets are: USC, UCLA, Orgeon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal (the last 2 especially for academics) to form a 20-team super conference with 4 x 5-team pods
 

PantherHawk88

Well-Known Member

If the tv contract allows them to reduce revenue it would be devastating to the remaining members.



Big 12's sad, tragic potential end​

In 2016, Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard made this prescient statement: "The Big 12 exists because we have Texas and Oklahoma in the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we're the Mountain West Conference."

Those words hit like a sledgehammer today. As the SEC shocked the world by preparing to assume the 'Horns and Sooners, the Big 12 lost 50% to 75% of its value, several industry sources tell CBS Sports. Their TV contracts with ESPN and Fox contain language that allows the Big 12 networks to reduce payouts if there is a loss of membership.

"When you're losing two of the most visible programs, the network has the right to come and say, 'We're going to reduce the rights by X.'" one longtime, high-profile administrator said.

That means the Big 12 deal could drop from $37 million in annual revenue to as low as $9 million per school. Considering there aren't two schools available that come close to replacing the value of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is in troubled waters to say the least.

There's a real possibility the conference could be scattered to the four winds. What a shame. Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia and Baylor look particularly vulnerable. Those schools are neither in a major market nor an established national brand.

What's next? The Big 12 seems to be the hunted instead of the hunter. It retains autonomous (Power Five) legislative voting rights within the NCAA ... if it stays together. As mentioned, some Big 12 schools could find a lifeline in the Pac-12 -- just not all of them.

 

Seth53

Well-Known Member
I am thinking the Big 10 will not expand for the time being. Big 12 will add a few middling schools. Campbell will leave after this season to coach Michigan or Penn State.
Your point about Campbell is an interesting one. If there was a (new) big reason why he'd leave ISU (disregard all the BS about building something, family, community, etc) is he won't want to coach in a decimated or cobbled-together league.
 

tweeterhawk

Well-Known Member
Your point about Campbell is an interesting one. If there was a (new) big reason why he'd leave ISU (disregard all the BS about building something, family, community, etc) is he won't want to coach in a decimated or cobbled-together league.
With Texas and particularly Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 becomes the Little Sisters Of The Poor. No blue blood teams to play, no one to really draw national attention. What up-and-coming coach wants to toil in that?

Other than USC and UCLA, there are no big name programs left for a decimated Big 12 to attract. And West Coast teams are not going to jump to what then will be a middlin’ conference in the middle of the country.
 

BryceC

Well-Known Member
Yikes, I hadn't heard that part of it. I wonder if the ACC will go after West Virginia and try to pull ND in so they are at 16. Man, I just can't see the B1G going after anyone other than KU, Colorado or Utah. If I were an ISU fan and found out the B1G didn't want us, I would probably be hoping the B1G got Colorado and Utah or Kansas and that move left the Pac 12 scrambling for some teams. Say I was the Pac 12 and had to fill out 5 slots (assume KU and CU to B1G), I'd go Baylor as a no brainer, but then I have 5 other teams for four slots (ISU, OSU, KSU, Texas Tech and TCU). I have to think ISU is a decent add and one of the better ones on the list, but it is the worst geographic fit (albeit the others aren't great either).

You're correct here. Best case scenario is that ISU gets added to to the existing Pac 12 or Big 10, although I think the odds of either are extremely low.

Second best case is that the Big 10 takes some of the programs from the Pac 12, leaving that conference scrambling and they can somehow merge. That would be a significant reduction in media rights payouts though.

Worst is that the Big 12 raids some AAC teams and continues on. That craters the athletic department most likely, every coaching staff is replaced, lots of people are fired, and programs are cut and there just aren't that may more to cut if we're being honest.
 

Fryowa

Administrator
People here are acting like the Big Ten and PAC 12 have to take these teams floundering in the Big 12.

The B1G ain't taking anyone it can't make money on, and I.S.Who isn't a team that's going to bring anything to the table. There's zero reason for the B1G to dilute it's brand with anyone other than ND (ain't gonna happen) or some other nationally watched program that gets a lot of TV eyeballs. This is 100% about advertising money, folks. Period, dot. That's what fills the coffers.

The people saying ISU will go G5 are also wrong (in a sense). G5 schools will join up with the B12 sloppy seconds, but they'll just keep calling it the Big 12 and it will be an also-ran conference

If you guys think ISU going to the B1G is a real possibility, then you can't see the forest for the trees. Understandable because most of us are geographically close to Lames, but there are 13 other teams in our conference with a say in this thing who don't give a fuck about Iowa State and barely know they exist other than having a coach who made a few headlines last year.

The Big 12 will still be around minus a few of the better teams like OK St and Kansas, albeit as a neutered, watered-down G5-ish conference.
 

okeefe4prez

Well-Known Member
You're correct here. Best case scenario is that ISU gets added to to the existing Pac 12 or Big 10, although I think the odds of either are extremely low.

Second best case is that the Big 10 takes some of the programs from the Pac 12, leaving that conference scrambling and they can somehow merge. That would be a significant reduction in media rights payouts though.

Worst is that the Big 12 raids some AAC teams and continues on. That craters the athletic department most likely, every coaching staff is replaced, lots of people are fired, and programs are cut and there just aren't that may more to cut if we're being honest.

I talked to a buddy about raiding the AAC last night. Dude said it is probably a coin toss as to whether the AAC is worth more or the Big 12 is worth more once the UT and OU residuals wear off. I went in thinking it was a no brainer for UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and maybe one more to join the Big 12 and this dude said that UCF and Houston probably have better economic and sports prospects than the remainder of the Big 12, which is left with really only one marquee program in Kansas hoops.

He told me that UCF is dumping ungodly money into football and that with NIL the second tier Florida and Texas schools are going to have a shot at locking out all but the most elite Midwest programs from recruiting down there. Supposedly UCF has grown into one of the largest schools in the country and some of their fans are super rabid and want UCF to be right up there with Florida for football. That is going to be a wildcard.

I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that even if the Big 12 added 4-6 solid AAC teams that it would still be "P5." And if I'm UCF, I don't know why I would make the move. If Houston, SMU and UCF are all decent in football, I could see them wanting to settle it among themselves. They certainly have a much better population footprint to work with than the Big 12.

Anyway, yesterday I would have agreed with you that worst case would be raiding the AAC, but now I think worst case is you try to raid the AAC and they say "hell no" and you wind up having to raid the MWAC. Sorry to be a downer, but I actually think that is in the realm of possibility. I still think it would be more likely than not that Houston and SMU would want to pair up with Tech and Baylor, but I don't think it is an absolute slam dunk.
 
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