Merged - Big 12 Aftermath Thread
- Thread starter tweeterhawk
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okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Anyone thinking of Iowa State to the Big Ten needs to understand basic division. Let us assume just for round number purposes that we add a 15th team other than ISU and that team is revenue neutral. Let us assume that after adding that 15th team, and just using round numbers that the total media revenue is $450 million.
Take 450/15. The result is 30 (the real number is higher, but I'm using 30 for ease).
You add Iowa State. The numerator in the equation has to get to at least 480 because 480/16=30. Iowa State adds 0 to BTN revenues. They don't afford any further negotiating leverage. You're basically left with 450/16, which is $28.125 million. It would cost every member school close to $2 million to add Iowa State. That is why it ain't freaking happening.
The more I think about this, the more I think that unless the B1G can land UCLA and USC, there's not a compelling reason to go to 16. Maybe a case can be made for KU and Colorado or Arizona and Arizona State. But those are it and the latter two pairings are scraping the bottom of what the B1G should ever consider. Outside of those, nothing is going to happen to the Big Ten.
The move for the B1G was to get Texas and Oklahoma. We got scooped. Unless USC and UCLA join, there's nothing that makes sense from a football perspective.
Fryowa
Administrator
This. I can't see why ISU fans think this is even a possibility.
What even remotely makes an anemic, black hole of a conference as a Texas and Oklahoma-less B12 more appealing than where they are now? TV money? Lolsies. There isn't going to be that money once the two big brothers leave.
And also to the Clones who think they have 4 years to feel this thing out: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Texas and Oklahoma knew exactly the kind of penalty money they'd have to fork over when they started talking about doing this, and they both have enough money and the inclination to do it right now. They gone, Clown fans...they GONE....
You think UT and OK want to continue playing in that shit conference for 4 more years as lame ducks knowing that their games and conference title "aspirations" are as worthless as hen shit on a pump handle? No fuckin way.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Fox went heavy on the Big 12 contract. They are in the drivers seat on this. If they are willing to gamble on siphoning Cincinnati, UCF and Houston away from ESPN, they will stroke a check to the Big 12 to do it. If Fox wants to add content that has the potential to be tier one content, I think that is about their only hope. The problem is that even if Fox came with a deal that guaranteed each Big 12 school $20 million in the aggregate, they would still be light years behind the SEC and Big Ten.
The landscape of who is good will definitely change. No one could have seen Clemson being a perennial national power 20 years ago. No one could have imagined Tennessee, Michigan, Miami and Nebraska would all but disappear 20 years ago. The Big 12 and Fox can make a gamble on UCF and Houston and that is about their only play to have a relevant football conference in 10 years. It is not an enviable position, but it really comes down to whether Fox wants to pay for content and then hope that it becomes worthwhile. Who knows, maybe they will follow NBC's path with NBCSN and close the sports network (FS1) because it fell short of the lofty expectations it was launched with and never developed into a formidable competitor to ESPN.
Chickenlounge
Well-Known Member
I had heard this about UCF before, and it seemed strange, but according to Wikipedia, they have the largest enrollment of any school in the US. 71,913 undergrad. Next in line are TxAM, tOSU, Florida, and Georgia.
Looking at that list makes you feel just how small U of Iowa really is.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Holy shit, it's that big? Wow, well if I were an administrator there and looked at the peer schools' football teams I would set my sights pretty damned high as well. They could be a factor in the next 20 years.
Fryowa
Administrator
The thing that I think a lot of folks are overlooking is the effect this has on ISU and other schools immediately, not just a few years down the road.
This is absolutely horrible for their near term recruiting. If my kid is getting recruited by ISU and say, Minnesota, there's no way in hell that I'm telling him ISU is a good bet, no matter how much campbell is trying to sell me on ISU being a fast-rising star of a program. campbell can't even answer the question of what conference ISU will be playing in in two years, let alone whether it'll even be P5. Hell, it might not even be nationally televised if they breed with the AAC.
How do you get anyone to sign with your squad who has other P5 offers?
This is absolutely horrible for their near term recruiting. If my kid is getting recruited by ISU and say, Minnesota, there's no way in hell that I'm telling him ISU is a good bet, no matter how much campbell is trying to sell me on ISU being a fast-rising star of a program. campbell can't even answer the question of what conference ISU will be playing in in two years, let alone whether it'll even be P5. Hell, it might not even be nationally televised if they breed with the AAC.
How do you get anyone to sign with your squad who has other P5 offers?
Chickenlounge
Well-Known Member
Is "Conference Implosion" a covered reason to release a kid from an LOI? Like a coaching change or something?
Fryowa
Administrator
If ISWho gets sent to the minors because of this whole deal which is somewhat likely, wouldn't the CyHawk game get permanently moved to Iowa City?
Which makes sense because having Hawk fans travel to Ames High for a football game after ISU can't afford to keep Trice open would get a little cramped.
Bad thing is we'd have to pay them for the game like we do North Texas.
Which makes sense because having Hawk fans travel to Ames High for a football game after ISU can't afford to keep Trice open would get a little cramped.
Bad thing is we'd have to pay them for the game like we do North Texas.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Okay, here is what a Clemson superfan just told me he wants to see:
ND and WV to ACC.
Big Ten poaches USC, UCLA, Standford, Arizona, Berkeley, Oregon and Washington
Turd leftovers from Big 8 and Pac 10 form own conference that gets grouped with G5 for playoffs
Big Ten forms 3 x 7 divisions to keep the west coast teams together
Big Ten, ACC and SEC can each put up to 4 teams in the playoffs
ACC, B1G and SEC champs get auto bye in playoff
Whatever sort of "Big Ten Central Division" formed would be just absolute dogshit and I think it could help Iowa potentially get into the playoff.
Fryowa
Administrator
That turd leftover conference would likely be worse than some existing G5 conferences, especially after a year or two of no P5 money. Recruiting would be almost non-existent for an ISU/Baylor/TT/etc football. Leaving P5 is an automatic death sentence to an athletic department that already has P5 facilities to pay for.
One thing to keep in mind is Kansas ain't going anywhere that isn't P5. their basketball program is worth huge bucks to any conference. If this thing blows up and they aren't taken by the B1G, they'll be adopted by the Big East and say F football. Creighton did it.
I say Warren should do whatever possible to get Kansas picked up. That basketball TV money ain't no small thang and it'd be good for the conference overall. Boot Rutgers and send Purdue east.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
I think you're wildly overestimating the value of hoops, breh. If the B1G can't pull a coup on the PAC 10 then I could maybe see KU being a viable add. But at the end of the day, I think we need USC and Oregon to have a fighting chance against the super SEC in football titles.
guffus
Well-Known Member
Your buddy is way over estimating the value of the AAC compared to the remaining Big 12. The real question is which would be the better conference top to bottom and the AAC has more dead weight that the Big 12 does not want like Tulsa, Tulane, Temope, ECU. But the AAC would take any of the schools in the Big 12 without hesitation. It just makes more sense for the Big 12 to grab the best teams from the AAC than the other way around.
If you are Houston and Cincy and had your choice of Conferences, which would rather have in your conference? OkST or Tulsa?
Plus football attendence in the remaining Big 12 is much higher than the AAC. ISU, OkST, TT are all over 50k. The AAC just can't compare.
Fryowa
Administrator
Wrong.
Your assumption is based on the B12 as it sits now. Once UT and OK leave there’s no money left, and once there’s no money left those schools remaining are no different than those AAC schools. You think any of those leftover B12 schools are going to be able to recruit at a P5 level after this, let alone afford to operate?
Fryowa
Administrator
Kansas is worth way more than Creighton and they went that direction. Not only did it go that direction, it works out fabulously for them.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Nah, there's a good point he's making. The bottom of the AAC is utter trash. And to get more TV money, the AAC teams will have to leave bince they sold media rights for another decade. The problem is the top of the Big 12 is trash, and possibly worse than the top of the AAC. It would be an interesting discussion.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
Creighton left the MVC for the Big East. That's a great deal for them. They didn't have a P5 football program to worry about.
The arms race for facilities in football could have really saddled some of these schools with unservicable debt. Oklahoma State spent a fortune and when oil tanked I think the T. Boone gift went "poof." There have to be some assholes puckered so tight right now at some of these schools that they could turn carbon dust into diamonds.
Fryowa
Administrator
An OK and UT-less Big 12 is not too much different than the AAC. We can agree that they both have trash at the bottom, but arguing which trash is more trashy is moot. Their top few schools are very even talent-wise.
AAC schools also don't have a fraction of the overheads, salary, and facilities expense that B12 athletic departments do. However it shakes out, without big TV deals and membership in a (legit, not fake news like the new B12) P5 conference there's no way these guys continue operating the way they do now. That leads to not being able to afford guys like Campbell, which leads to a vacuum in recruiting, which makes them G5 schools in short order.
Fryowa
Administrator
Neither does Kansas if the survival of the basketball program hinges on it. Again, either way you slice it there's zero chance Kansas doesn't land a P5 gig or at the very least P6 in hoops.
When it comes to the timeline of when UT and OU will move to SEC I don't see it being in 4 yrs. Maybe even next yr is my guess. I think the SEC would gladly front the buyout $ of 80 large to get em in most likely. Have schools pay it back over time or whatever and it wouldn't take all that long. BIG 12 will fight that tooth and nail I suppose but good luck $ talks and is what it is. The rest of the BIG 12 will get that little parting gift from them and that'll be that. The musical chairs has began
