Let's try this again- Will Iowa make the NCAA Tournament?

[Igothawked]

No, I'm not suggesting play all top conferences but those 3 games cost us. If you eliminate those games Iowa's RPI would be 61, SOS at 19, with a 15-13 record. There are plenty of other weaker mid majors they can schedule, they just need to avoid scheduling games against garbage conferences like the MEAC.

You have to consider 2 of those games were preliminary games for the holiday tourney they played in (UTSA and Savanah St I believe), so Fran has no choice in scheduling them.
However I think 3 games put them in this position: UNO, @MN, or either I'll game. Win any 2 of those and they are playing for seeding. Win against Indy they are sweating, beat Indy and Wisconsin and they are playing as a 10 seed.

 

[ssckelley]

You have to consider 2 of those games were preliminary games for the holiday tourney they played in (UTSA and Savanah St I believe), so Fran has no choice in scheduling them.

Iowa's RPI drops 5 (from 72 down to 67) if it eliminates 1 of them. I'm not sure how those so called "preliminary rounds" work but I'm sure Iowa has more control over who they play. It's not a conventional tournament where if Rio Grande Valley beats Iowa they get to take their place in the holiday tournament, those games get locked in.

 

[PCHawk]

Iowa's RPI drops 5 (from 72 down to 67) if it eliminates 1 of them. I'm not sure how those so called "preliminary rounds" work but I'm sure Iowa has more control over who they play. It's not a conventional tournament where if Rio Grande Valley beats Iowa they get to take their place in the holiday tournament, those games get locked in.

I've read things earlier in the year that they had no control over who they played in those tournaments.

 

[ssckelley]

I've read things earlier in the year that they had no control over who they played in those tournaments.

Those games only accounted for 1 of the games against the +300 RPI opponents, Rio Grande Valley. However, the other game against Savannah State (RPI 283) didn't help either. If Iowa was forced into playing those games then don't schedule Stetson (RPI 329) or Delaware St (RPI 330). On top of that their season opener was against Kennesaw St (RPI 262). That's a total of 5 games and they were forced to play 2 of them.

 

[WindsorHawk]

It sucks that the last 3 years we've played terrible teams, but now that we have a must win, we play a good one. If we lose, I hope fans are smart enough to realize the difference between what happened this year and what happened the last 3.

I'm going to disagree with you on this PC. It is because we are playing a quality opponent with a good RPI that 2 wins probably gets us in IMO. I don't think beating Nebraska helps us at all. And I don't think beating Ohio State helps much. We probably have to win our Saturday game as well.

Beating Indiana and then Wisconsin is a much better scenario when it comes to getting the Selection Committee's attention. Get these 2 on top of what we've done in the last 4 and I won't be nervous on Sunday...if we lose Saturday to Northwestern or Maryland.

Note - I do think Saturday's game may very well be the easiest of the 3...assuming we get there. But it only takes 1 bad shooting day by the team or a minor injury early in a game forcing Jok, Baer or Bohannon to sit out to lose. So playing 2 games instead of 3 to get the same result IMO is better. It's one less chance for some fluke loss.

 

[Knight78]

This. I've said the same thing when Fran has scheduled 200+ RPI teams in previously -- 300+ is inexcusable I don't care how young Iowa is.

Sure, we would have to tolerate Drake every other season but don't shoot yourself in the foot intentionally.

FIFY: "I've said the same thing when Gary has scheduled 200+ RPI teams in previously -- 300+ is inexcusable I don't care how young Iowa is."

The coach doesn't make out the schedule, the athletic director does.

Edit. Sorry, DDThompson. This should be to SSCKelley as he was wondering who does the scheduling.

 

[PCHawk]

I'm going to disagree with you on this PC. It is because we are playing a quality opponent with a good RPI that 2 wins probably gets us in IMO. I don't think beating Nebraska helps us at all. And I don't think beating Ohio State helps much. We probably have to win our Saturday game as well.

Beating Indiana and then Wisconsin is a much better scenario when it comes to getting the Selection Committee's attention. Get these 2 on top of what we've done in the last 4 and I won't be nervous on Sunday...if we lose Saturday to Northwestern or Maryland.

Note - I do think Saturday's game may very well be the easiest of the 3...assuming we get there. But it only takes 1 bad shooting day by the team or a minor injury early in a game forcing Jok, Baer or Bohannon to sit out to lose. So playing 2 games instead of 3 to get the same result IMO is better. It's one less chance for some fluke loss.

I think if we beat Wisconsin, we would be in no matter who the first opponent is. I can see the argument that maybe we still get in if we only win one vs Indians vs probably not if the one is against Nebraska.

 

[PCHawk]

I assume scheduling is a lot like recruiting. You have to evaluate where you think a program will be the next year and sometimes to have to get a fallback team.

If Gary could somehow know how the RPI would fall next year, and could have the pick of the litter on any teams we wanted to play, we would have the number 1 RPI every year AND probably have easier schedules than we play now.

 

[ssckelley]

I assume scheduling is a lot like recruiting. You have to evaluate where you think a program will be the next year and sometimes to have to get a fallback team.

If Gary could somehow know how the RPI would fall next year, and could have the pick of the litter on any teams we wanted to play, we would have the number 1 RPI every year AND probably have easier schedules than we play now.

It isn't as difficult as you are making it out to be and some teams do it well. The key is to avoid scheduling games against horrible conferences like the MEAC. Check out the overall record on teams from that conference, 13 teams in that conference and only 1 has a record above .500. Playing those teams gives you a double whammy, not only from the hit of their W/L record but that of their opponents which makes up 25% of your RPI score. The MEAC was not just bad this year, it's every year.

There are so many mid major schools in D1 basketball that it isn't hard to schedule games against cupcakes that won't kill your RPI at the end of the year. You can get away with 1 or 2 but not 5. Again, if we really need a warm up game because you have a young team then bring in a D2 school like Upper Iowa, a game that doesn't count against you and they are right in our backyard.

 

[BryceC]

None of those teams mentioned had a .500 record against the top 50 with playing 8 games against the top 50. When we play Wisconsin again that will make 9 games against the top 50. That is 1/3 of our games. We should and will get credit for that. Plus I wonder if any of those teams had a 1st team all B1G, 2 All Freshman and a 6th man of the year. I doubt it.

I'm not saying they do or don't. Somebody asked if there was a team, I responded, it actually happened pretty frequently.

Iowa is 5-7 against the top 50.

Penn State in 2009 was 7-9 vs. the top 50 with an RPI of 47.
Illinois in 2010 was 6-10 vs. the top 50 with an RPI of 67.

 

[DDThompson]

C'mon are you serious? You guys think we should play 30 Power 5 teams a year? The reason that we are on the bubble at all is because we lost 13 games. Only lose 6 or less and it won't matter who the F you played. It is impossible to predict years in advance who is going to be any good. It's either schedule nothing but power 5 teams or do exactly what every other power 5 program does and schedule mid majors and cupcakes with a tourney or 2 to give you a few games against legit competition. It all boils down to just simply winning the games you play.

Are you serious?

First, why don't you quote me where I said play only power 5 conferences instead of you putting words in my mouth and then still cannot make your point.

That Secondly, only lose six games and it doesn't matter who you play. Do you realize how many seasons Iowa has lost 6 or fewer games in the last 40 years? Yeah. Didn't think so.

Third, how about we stipulate that Fran not schedule any team in a conference that is worse than the MAC? You know, the 14th best conference and the last conference with an out-of-conference winning record? Would that be too difficult?

Lastly, the reason why Iowa is on the outside of the bubble is not simply because of losing 13 games. It's because there are 4-5 wins vs cupcakes in the high 200s and 300+.

Iowa would be on the top of the bubble or just in with wins against teams in the high100s and 200+. So you're just flat wrong that it doesn't matter who you play. I wonder why all those 23-6 mid-majors have to win their tournaments or they don't make it even as bubblers.

 

[PCHawk]

It isn't as difficult as you are making it out to be and some teams do it well. The key is to avoid scheduling games against horrible conferences like the MEAC. Check out the overall record on teams from that conference, 13 teams in that conference and only 1 has a record above .500. Playing those teams gives you a double whammy, not only from the hit of their W/L record but that of their opponents which makes up 25% of your RPI score. The MEAC was not just bad this year, it's every year.

There are so many mid major schools in D1 basketball that it isn't hard to schedule games against cupcakes that won't kill your RPI at the end of the year. You can get away with 1 or 2 but not 5. Again, if we really need a warm up game because you have a young team then bring in a D2 school like Upper Iowa, a game that doesn't count against you and they are right in our backyard.

Then this is a serious question. Why do they schedule those teams? I would say there's a zero percent chance Barta doesn't know as much about the RPI as you do. So why would he do it unless he doesn't have any other options? Do you think France tells him to schedule a few god awful teams every year? Maybe. But I doubt that. I would bet a lot of money that Fran would never want to play a team as bad as 300 RPI.

 

[ssckelley]

Then this is a serious question. Why do they schedule those teams? I would say there's a zero percent chance Barta doesn't know as much about the RPI as you do. So why would he do it unless he doesn't have any other options? Do you think France tells him to schedule a few god awful teams every year? Maybe. But I doubt that. I would bet a lot of money that Fran would never want to play a team as bad as 300 RPI.

It's a great question and I truly do wonder if Barta is aware of the impact scheduling these teams had on their RPI before they scheduled them. Because going in they had to know reaching the NCAA was going to be tough for a team this young, even if these games are scheduled a couple years in advance we all knew Iowa was facing a lot of graduations. So why dig a bigger hole for yourselves? Last year the OOC teams were not so bad, I think only 2 of those games (Coppin State and Missouri KC) hurt the RPI. You can't load up with 5 of them in a year where your NCAA chances are slim to begin with.

 

[DDThompson]

It's a great question and I truly do wonder if Barta is aware of the impact scheduling these teams had on their RPI before they scheduled them. Because going in they had to know reaching the NCAA was going to be tough for a team this young, even if these games are scheduled a couple years in advance we all knew Iowa was facing a lot of graduations. So why dig a bigger hole for yourselves? Last year the OOC teams were not so bad, I think only 2 of those games (Coppin State and Missouri KC) hurt the RPI. You can't load up with 5 of them in a year where your NCAA chances are slim to begin with.

This exactly.

Fran & Barta weighed everything and thought wins were more important than RPI hits. As young as this team is/was, I don't blame them for coming to that conclusion.

I would rather schedule 4 #130 Omahas and risk losing than win 4 easy #250s+.