DuffMan
Well-Known Member
I think we have a realistic shot at this, and we are close enough to the end of the season that we have a real clear path to victory. As I look at the recent history of the NIT there appears to be some good and bad news. First the bad…
Obviously the highest seeds in the NIT typically go to the first couple of teams the NCAA tournament left out, teams for whom the bubble has burst and barring a miracle that isn’t going to be Iowa. The bad news is the rest of the slots tend to go to mid majors and teams from one bid leagues who had excellent records but didn’t seal the deal at conference tournament time. They tend to select those teams OVER teams from major conferences with slightly above .500 records (Iowa).
The last 4 major conference teams in last years NIT were including thier seeds and records were: (4) NW: 20-14 (7-11), (5) Neb: 19-13 (7-9), (4) Cal: 18-15 (10-8), and (5) Miss 20-14 (7-9). Again that’s more bad news for Iowa. While we can certainly post a similar conference record to those schools our OOC play included a couple of very bad losses, losses that could be the difference between an 18-13 record versus 16-15. Those (18-13 and 16-15) and two totally different teams for selection comities, at least on paper.
Now for some good news….
Iowa has a very real shot to finish 7th in what has been widely publicized as the best basketball conference in America. This is a very significant stat, especially given that the B10 is almost a lock to take 6 teams dancing. There is ZERO chance the NIT doesn’t select AT LEAST one B10 team, and the team sitting in 7th place has got to feel pretty good about their chances. Let’s look at what needs to happen for Iowa to finish 7th.
First things first Iowa MUST take care of business to close out the season. Thankfully the schedule sets up very nicely to do that. We are currently 14-13 (6-8). We have four remaining games, Wisky (who we’ve beaten once), free falling Illannoy, Nebraska, and NW. I think Iowa has a very good shot to split those four and finish 16-15 (8-10) and in 7th place in the B10. That with a solid B10 tournament (winning one game minimum) MIGHT be enough to get the Hawks into a legitimate post season tournament. What about the other B10 teams competing with Iowa for that NIT bid?
Iowa’s strongest competition for an NIT bid is probably NW (provided they don’t find a way to sneak into the NCAA). Currently Iowa and NW are both at 6-8 and sitting in a tie for 7th. If those two teams finish tied I have no doubts the NIT would select NW over Iowa. That said the remaining schedule really sets up well for Iowa. Northwestern closes out the season facing Michigan (loss), PSU (win), and OSU (loss). Their final game of the season is against Iowa, in Carver Hawkeye Arena. Clearly we all remember what happened the last time those two teams faced, and I don’t think NW has forgotten how to play a 1-3-1 since that game, BUT the reality is if Iowa finds a way to beat NW to close out the season the Kitty Cats are going to finish 17-13 (7-11) one game behind Iowa. If that happens I like Iowa’s chances. How about the rest of the B10?
On paper Minnesota looks like it’s a clear favorite over Iowa as they are currently 18-13 on the year. However when you take a deeper look they have some real problems. First and foremost is their current 5-9 league record. Second is their upcoming schedule. They play MSU, Indiana, Wisc, and Nebraska. Granted they get MSU and Indiana at home, but it’s not unrealistic to think they go 1-3 over that stretch. If that happens I can’t see the NIT taking Minnesota and their 6-12 B10 record over Iowa even if they have 19 wins..
Illannoys problem is similar to Minnesota’s. They are currently 16-11 overall but just 5-9 in the league. That 16-11 looks pretty good, but they finish with games @ OSU and @ WIsc, and games at home versus scUM and Iowa. To me that also looks like 1-3, and with the way they have been playing 0-4 isn’t out of the question. Again I see no way the NIT takes Ill at 17-14 (6-12) over a 16-15 (8-10) Iowa team.
The long and short is if Iowa can manage one win against the three game stretch versus Wisky, Ill, and Nebby, then the season finale at Carver might just be for the Hawkeyes first post season birth bince that guy with great hair was here.
Obviously the highest seeds in the NIT typically go to the first couple of teams the NCAA tournament left out, teams for whom the bubble has burst and barring a miracle that isn’t going to be Iowa. The bad news is the rest of the slots tend to go to mid majors and teams from one bid leagues who had excellent records but didn’t seal the deal at conference tournament time. They tend to select those teams OVER teams from major conferences with slightly above .500 records (Iowa).
The last 4 major conference teams in last years NIT were including thier seeds and records were: (4) NW: 20-14 (7-11), (5) Neb: 19-13 (7-9), (4) Cal: 18-15 (10-8), and (5) Miss 20-14 (7-9). Again that’s more bad news for Iowa. While we can certainly post a similar conference record to those schools our OOC play included a couple of very bad losses, losses that could be the difference between an 18-13 record versus 16-15. Those (18-13 and 16-15) and two totally different teams for selection comities, at least on paper.
Now for some good news….
Iowa has a very real shot to finish 7th in what has been widely publicized as the best basketball conference in America. This is a very significant stat, especially given that the B10 is almost a lock to take 6 teams dancing. There is ZERO chance the NIT doesn’t select AT LEAST one B10 team, and the team sitting in 7th place has got to feel pretty good about their chances. Let’s look at what needs to happen for Iowa to finish 7th.
First things first Iowa MUST take care of business to close out the season. Thankfully the schedule sets up very nicely to do that. We are currently 14-13 (6-8). We have four remaining games, Wisky (who we’ve beaten once), free falling Illannoy, Nebraska, and NW. I think Iowa has a very good shot to split those four and finish 16-15 (8-10) and in 7th place in the B10. That with a solid B10 tournament (winning one game minimum) MIGHT be enough to get the Hawks into a legitimate post season tournament. What about the other B10 teams competing with Iowa for that NIT bid?
Iowa’s strongest competition for an NIT bid is probably NW (provided they don’t find a way to sneak into the NCAA). Currently Iowa and NW are both at 6-8 and sitting in a tie for 7th. If those two teams finish tied I have no doubts the NIT would select NW over Iowa. That said the remaining schedule really sets up well for Iowa. Northwestern closes out the season facing Michigan (loss), PSU (win), and OSU (loss). Their final game of the season is against Iowa, in Carver Hawkeye Arena. Clearly we all remember what happened the last time those two teams faced, and I don’t think NW has forgotten how to play a 1-3-1 since that game, BUT the reality is if Iowa finds a way to beat NW to close out the season the Kitty Cats are going to finish 17-13 (7-11) one game behind Iowa. If that happens I like Iowa’s chances. How about the rest of the B10?
On paper Minnesota looks like it’s a clear favorite over Iowa as they are currently 18-13 on the year. However when you take a deeper look they have some real problems. First and foremost is their current 5-9 league record. Second is their upcoming schedule. They play MSU, Indiana, Wisc, and Nebraska. Granted they get MSU and Indiana at home, but it’s not unrealistic to think they go 1-3 over that stretch. If that happens I can’t see the NIT taking Minnesota and their 6-12 B10 record over Iowa even if they have 19 wins..
Illannoys problem is similar to Minnesota’s. They are currently 16-11 overall but just 5-9 in the league. That 16-11 looks pretty good, but they finish with games @ OSU and @ WIsc, and games at home versus scUM and Iowa. To me that also looks like 1-3, and with the way they have been playing 0-4 isn’t out of the question. Again I see no way the NIT takes Ill at 17-14 (6-12) over a 16-15 (8-10) Iowa team.
The long and short is if Iowa can manage one win against the three game stretch versus Wisky, Ill, and Nebby, then the season finale at Carver might just be for the Hawkeyes first post season birth bince that guy with great hair was here.
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