It's too early to say that Fran has failed. But regarding Lick, Keno & McDermott.. I guess it's less of a trick to compete in a mid-major conference against weak competition, get to the tourney, and win a game or two against opponents that aren't familiar with you.
And Keno had what, 1 year at Drake with Mr. Davis's players before being hired by Providence? Maybe 2 (without looking it up)? He didn't really prove that he was a great coach before he got a Big East gig.
When you are competing in the Big 10 or Big XII, where teams get a chance to really know you, and you are competing against much better talent night in and night out, much different scenario IMO. That's just my theory.