I'm a Gopher fan, so I hold my opinion on the Hawkeyes early in the season. That said, Iowa typically plays a really weak first three games. I know, I know, so does Minny, but we're talking about the Hawkeyes right now.
Getting back to weaklings (e.g. this year, WY, ISU, NTx; 2016 Mi-Oh, ISU, NDSU; 2015 IlSt, ISU, NTx), Iowa is expected to win and often looks impressive doing so. When this occurs, the Iowa fan base is hopeful the team is for real, but knows they are playing weak opponents, so there isn't anything to chirp about other than speculation about the team's prospects when the Big10 schedule arrives.
Still, even in the Big10, there are cream puffs (typically Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois) and middle-tier teams (typically Minny, Nebraska, NW) and good teams (tOSU, Penn State, Mich, Mich State, Wisc). I realize these teams experience ups/downs, but generally you follow. What's interesting is some of the cream puffs have really improved this year (e.g. everyone chalked up Purdue as a Win with high confidence, but Brohm has already turned that team around. Maryland appears much improved as well, but the Hawks don't get them or Rutgers.).
To answer your question Rob, the Hawkeyes are two games into their "real schedule" and the annual debate about Ferentz's predictive scheme has just started, along with speculation as to who this team is. And, so you have the pessimistic fans active on the boards along with those fans that hope some changes in scheme and a bit of good luck will change the fortune of the season.
You guys are at an interesting inflection point! A definite win against Illinois and then a bye week will get the fan base optimistic. However, NW, Minny, Purdue and Nebraska are all toss ups imo. Ohio State and Wisky are definite losses. Yea, yea, you beat Michigan last year and almost beat Penn State this year. Well, the Penn State game could have easily been a 3 score win for PSU with all their yards and time in the red zone. All that said, 8-4 is a possibility for Iowa, but so is 4-8.
My outside take on the Hawkeyes. Obviously something is wrong with your running game. In the first few games there was a bunch of naked bootlegs off the predictive stretch play which worked well for some easy short passes for Stanley. However, I din't think Iowa ran any play action or naked boots vs MSU and PSU? The running game has struggled all year rally - WY even appeared to have it figured out (138 yds) and Cyclones did ok stopping the run (164 yds). However, 82 yds and 19 yds rushing vs PSU and MSU has got to invoke change, no?!? It will be interesting to see if team Ferentz keeps the same scheme against the weak Ilini or use the time to try some new stuff and use the game to get better against one of the weakest P5 teams in the country. Candidly, Brian Ferentz is pretty limited with innovation with Stanley back there. He's not mobile and has ball control issues (what's that 4 fumbles lost for him already).
Zone blocking/power running works against inferior competition, but the competition isn't necessarily inferior after Illinois. As for the passing game, Stanley put up nice numbers (12 TDs on 1 Int) against the early season's inferior opponents, but still needed a great deal of good fortune, good play calling by Brian Ferentz and good athletes making plays to produce them (e.g. easy throws such as flairs, screens, bubbles and outs turning in to TDs ). He also had a tumbling tipped ball fall into the right hands. From there, a nice seam pass to Fant and a couple longs circus catches for TDs against ISU and WY have kept the fan base hopeful. Truth is, Brian Ferentz has been doing a great job making it as simple /easy as possible for Stanley. Think about a single throw that Stanley has made that had any degree of risk associated to it. No tight windows and very few passes in the center of the field. Again, mostly flairs, bubbles, outs and long passes that either hit (usually they don't) or fall harmlessly to the turf. Point is, Brian Ferentz built up Stanley's confidence with simple, effective, very low risk passing. Apparently, Stanley has been given the authority to check out of different runs which worked against him in both the PSU and MSU games. The O-line gets blitzed constantly and has held up pretty well with only 11 sacks thus far and 7 of those coming against PSU and MSU. Stanley isn't a threat to run (ranks 128 in Run EPA of all QBs on ESPN Total QBR) and really doesn't worry the opposing team with scrambles - he's had wide open fields to get scramble yards, yet gets tracked down quickly, rarely making a first down in a wide open field. So, no reason to have a LB stay and shadow him, which adds one more defender in coverage.
Meanwhile the defense has held up pretty well. Every opposing coach called it a "soft D" keeping the plays in front of them and making the other team execute, The Hawks do not blitz often and the D-line has done a good job of pressure bringing 4 with minimal stunts.
That's Iowa football. Very straight forward, predictable, no innovation. Works well against the cream puffs and mid-tiers, gives you a chance against the good ones. What will be interesting is will it be 8-4 or 4-8 or somewhere in the middle.
A Gopher's 3rd party two cents. Proceed with the Minnesota and Fleck jokes.....Now!
