Is Fran And Iowa Basketball At A Tipping Point?

HaydenHawk56 said:
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Isn't there one year where we cant just put it all together?:) But, I get what you are saying PC. Fran will get more time. We shall see.
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That's tough to do when you start so slow every year. Next year we finally don't lose our best player so hopefully we can get a strong start for the first time in 5 years.
 
This .500 ball stat is a stupid meaningless stat.

One of the teams that hasn't been .500 or better in B1G play every year for the last 5 years is the Michigan Wolverines. In the last 5 seasons, Michigan has appeared in the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and the National Championship game.

Ohio State is another one of those teams that failed at the .500 stat. They were in the Elite 8 one of the last 5 years along with a couple of other NCAA tourney appearances.

Indiana is also another one of those teams.... Indy managed to get into the Sweet 16 twice in the last 5 years.

Even Purdue is one of those teams that failed at the wonderful .500 stat. They made the Sweet 16 last season.

How many times has Fran McCaffery made the Sweet 16 or better in his entire career? Answer: Zero

Like I said, the .500 B1G ball in the last 5 years is a stupid meaningless stat.
 
tksirius said:
This .500 ball stat is a stupid meaningless stat.

One of the teams that hasn't been .500 or better in B1G play every year for the last 5 years is the Michigan Wolverines. In the last 5 seasons, Michigan has appeared in the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and the National Championship game.

Ohio State is another one of those teams that failed at the .500 stat. They were in the Elite 8 one of the last 5 years along with a couple of other NCAA tourney appearances.

Indiana is also another one of those teams.... Indy managed to get into the Sweet 16 twice in the last 5 years.

Even Purdue is one of those teams that failed at the wonderful .500 stat. They made the Sweet 16 last season.

How many times has Fran McCaffery made the Sweet 16 or better in his entire career? Answer: Zero

Like I said, the .500 B1G ball in the last 5 years is a stupid meaningless stat.
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Isn't it something how some teams can take the next step or two or three or four?
Now these stats totally blow that participation .500 B1G ball trophy right out of the water.
 
Per Kenpom
'02 - #46 - Alford *Alford's 3rd year, furthest back Kenpom goes.
'03 - #78 - Alford
'04 - #69 - Alford
'05 - #27 - Alford
'06 - #21 - Alford
'07 - #70 - Alford
'08 - #146 - Lick
'09 - #87 - Lick
'10 - #174 - Lick
'11 - #88 - Fran
'12 - #101 - Fran
'13 - #29 - Fran
'14 - #22 - Fran
'15 - #23 - Fran
'16 - #23 - Fran
'17 - #71 - Fran
'18 - #80 - Fran *Plenty of games left to move up or down.
 
Hawk5656 said:
If you win the play in game everyone counts it as a tournament appearance. If you don't win it a lot of people won't, especially if it helps their argument. People defending Fran will count it as an appearance but if things go south the narrative will quickly change to justify the frustration.
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Listen I think the play in games are a money grab joke. But it's the NCAA tournament by any measure unless you include a healthy dollop of butthurt. Then it might not be. Just stop.
 
RobHowe said:
The program experiences a tough start to the season, fire the staff because it might be a trend. It's nice to know you guys can see the future. Perhaps you can give Kreskin a run for his money.
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I've never said to fire him. Just asking the question. I personally expect 6 to 8 Big wins at this point. That should calculate out to 10 or more the next year. Hardly firable for this program.
 
PCHawk said:
I wonder if the people who are making fun of that stat would be happy if we made the tourney the last 5 years, but had a worse conference record. My guess is those people would just complain about the conference record because they are never happy about anything.
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The NCAA tournament is the bar for NCAA basketball. If people weren't happy with 5 straight trips they're idiots. But the fact is no matter how well you do in your conference if it doesn't include a trip to the NCAA's it's tough to call the season a success.

ISU is having a down year. They likely won't make the NCAA's. If they don't make the NCAA's, the season won't be successful regardless of how they do in conference. That doesn't mean the season is a failure per se, but the tourney is the be all end all for basketball.

To your point earlier too, obviously teams get to have down years. The question is how down is understandable. I'm okay with ISU basketball if the season doesn't end with a tourney bid because I can see what they are attempting to build toward and I like their young pieces. However, if we were still seeing the level of basketball we say in the Milwaukee loss that would be way, way too low even for a rebuilding year.
 
BryceC said:
The NCAA tournament is the bar for NCAA basketball. If people weren't happy with 5 straight trips they're idiots. But the fact is no matter how well you do in your conference if it doesn't include a trip to the NCAA's it's tough to call the season a success.

ISU is having a down year. They likely won't make the NCAA's. If they don't make the NCAA's, the season won't be successful regardless of how they do in conference. That doesn't mean the season is a failure per se, but the tourney is the be all end all for basketball.

To your point earlier too, obviously teams get to have down years. The question is how down is understandable. I'm okay with ISU basketball if the season doesn't end with a tourney bid because I can see what they are attempting to build toward and I like their young pieces. However, if we were still seeing the level of basketball we say in the Milwaukee loss that would be way, way too low even for a rebuilding year.
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That was pretty much my point of being close in down years. So far, the worst Fran has been in the last 5 years is missing the tournament because of one horribly officiated game. Instead of focusing on my point, they make cliche posts about being close.
 
BryceC said:
Listen I think the play in games are a money grab joke. But it's the NCAA tournament by any measure unless you include a healthy dollop of butthurt. Then it might not be. Just stop.
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I'm with Schwartz on here where I don't count the play in game as a tournament appearance and think you have to win that game to play you way into the tournament. That is just my opinion.
 
#1DieHardHawk said:
Fran's situation is interesting. Yes, he single-handedly brought this program out of the depths of hell, and has consistently produced competitive teams, but, some coaches excel at rebuilding yet struggle to maintain that upward trajectory.

Right now, Fran is at a bit of a tipping point in terms of demonstrating whether or not he's not just a "rebuilder." The next few seasons could very well give us that answer.

Personally, I think it is quite reasonable to reevaluate the program when the current freshmen are seniors. At that point, if we appear to be circling the drain, then, Fran's seat could and should get quite warm. My prediction, though, is that most fans will be singing his praises again around that time.
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Yes, good point. Just because a coach can elevate a program to a certain level does not guarantee greatness or the team will excel past a certain point. Most coaches should be able to get a team from the bowels of the abyss. If they can't they really have no business coaching.

Now it is watch and wait to see if this team can ascend to the next level.
 
RobHowe said:
My premise is that saying Fran should be gone or is on the hot seat is nutty based on what he's accomplished with a program that was in the crapper when he took over. Yet, there are people on here trying to make parallels between he and Lick. That blows my mind and IMO shows a severe lack of perspective and, quite frankly, memory loss.

Does Fran have to win? Sure. He knows that. If he misses the NCAA Tourney this year and next, the heat is on. But it has to play out for me. I'm not going to call for his head for what could happen. It has to happen.
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I agree the parallel to Lickliter is bad. Apples to oranges. Lick's teams held people to 50-60 pts because of the slow style of play. I didn't start this conversation with the intent that Fran would be fired after this year but merely asking if these next two years are on the tipping point of the scale, where either the team ascends or declines to the point where we start losing quality recruits, which would be the demise of his tenure at Iowa.

The flaws outlined above are legit as they seem to happen each year, now add a huge rotation and finding consistency.

Yes, he brought this team back but I personally think turning a team around and finding success can happen faster in basketball then a sport like football. You can virtually be one recruiting class away from being competitive. He got us to be competitive and not an easy out. Most competent coaches should be able to do this.

This team is young, but we will continue to evaluate what we view as flaws in his game to see if they get better over the season or next year, or stay the same.
 
PCHawk said:
Who cares what year it is unless you think we should never have down years? We are done rebuilding so it doesn't matter what year it is anymore. From now on, we are going to have ups and downs just like every other program. It's time to start debating whether our ups are high enough and if our lows are too low. Yet for some reason, people keep saying we should be better than this by now. We were better than this by now. We were better in year 4, 5, 6, and 7.

When people say we should be better by year 8, it implies that this is the best we've been. Learn how to argue people. Say "we have reached our ceiling with Fran" like some people have been saying for the last 5 years. At least people don't sound incredibly stupid when they say that like they do when they say "it's year 8, it shouldn't take this long".
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I think when people are pointing out year 8, they are implying the bold above, questioning if this is indeed the ceiling. I agree that we should really take a look at where the program is when this group are juniors and seniors. We will be able to tell at that point if the ceiling is indeed higher.

I want Fran to succeed more than anybody. I like his style, passion for the game and even appreciate his temper. Most on here are stating they want to see this work out. I am not hearing anybody flat out state they want to see him go. Most are pulling for him to get this team and program rolling.

Just because we are evaluating where the program is at this point and pointing out the flaws we see and some are being cynical, doesn't mean people want Fran to go.
 
PCHawk said:
I wonder if the people who are making fun of that stat would be happy if we made the tourney the last 5 years, but had a worse conference record. My guess is those people would just complain about the conference record because they are never happy about anything.
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The .500 record in conference is significant pertaining to the NCAA. That seems to be the cutoff line for the best 6 teams in conference. I agree the conference record may be one of if not the most important stat as if a team is better than .500, chances are that they will make the NCAA, unless RPI is quite low from chitting the bed a couple times in non-conference, which Iowa has done a couple times. Bad scheduling or bad early season losses.

So, .500 is a very significant stat to a BIG team and has implications on the NCAA most years.
 
MelroseHawkins said:
I think when people are pointing out year 8, they are implying the bold above, questioning if this is indeed the ceiling. I agree that we should really take a look at where the program is when this group are juniors and seniors. We will be able to tell at that point if the ceiling is indeed higher.

I want Fran to succeed more than anybody. I like his style, passion for the game and even appreciate his temper. Most on here are stating they want to see this work out. I am not hearing anybody flat out state they want to see him go. Most are pulling for him to get this team and program rolling.

Just because we are evaluating where the program is at this point and pointing out the flaws we see and some are being cynical, doesn't mean people want Fran to go.
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Like I said in my post tho. People say Fran reached his ceiling every year, only to be wrong. Eventually they will be right tho. The thing is, if he gets better players, he won't have reached his ceiling. Has he already done that with Cook, Nunge, Garza, Weiscamp, and the McCafferys? I would guess so. Look what he did with guys like Oglesby and McCabe playing major minutes. Or Gesell and Clemmons. These were decent players for sure, but far from his ceiling.

The problem this year is there is no good upperclassmen to soften the blow of transitioning to the next group of players. With Woodys class, he had Marble and White to help bring them along, or they would have looked way worse as sophomores than this team does now.
 
JG10Hawk said:
Per Kenpom
'02 - #46 - Alford *Alford's 3rd year, furthest back Kenpom goes.
'03 - #78 - Alford
'04 - #69 - Alford
'05 - #27 - Alford
'06 - #21 - Alford
'07 - #70 - Alford
'08 - #146 - Lick
'09 - #87 - Lick
'10 - #174 - Lick
'11 - #88 - Fran
'12 - #101 - Fran
'13 - #29 - Fran
'14 - #22 - Fran
'15 - #23 - Fran
'16 - #23 - Fran
'17 - #71 - Fran
'18 - #80 - Fran *Plenty of games left to move up or down.
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Solid. Thanks!

Remind me again, what is the Matrix for Kenpom. What are the parameters?
 
MelroseHawkins said:
The .500 record in conference is significant pertaining to the NCAA. That seems to be the cutoff line for the best 6 teams in conference. I agree the conference record may be one of if not the most important stat as if a team is better than .500, chances are that they will make the NCAA, unless RPI is quite low from chitting the bed a couple times in non-conference, which Iowa has done a couple times. Bad scheduling or bad early season losses.

So, .500 is a very significant stat to a BIG team and has implications on the NCAA most years.
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I know people hate the word close, but it shows we are really close to what everyone's expectations should be. It's funny how pissed everyone can get by just falling a tiny bit short of expectations.
 
Regarding the year 8 thing. Some people clearly are acting like we still aren't "built" in year 8. He built us into a bubble team most years with an occasional down year and an occasional better year. Neither of which have happened yet but there have been obvious signs that both will happen.
 
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