As Rob stated in another thread, Iowa's only real shot at making an NY6 bowl comes with being ranked in the top 12, though it is not unheard of to make it within the top 16, but we'd need to have a good reputation with the committee, or at least a better reputation than our peers. Still not very likely, but it's our jobs as fans to ponder the potential outcomes and hypotheticals, so here we go.
If Iowa wants a shot at a NY6 bowl, we need a laundry list of extra help, but it's possible:
1) Win out (duh). Doing so convincingly would help our case even further.
2) We need some teams ahead of us to lose. The most likely scenarios for Iowa to move up significantly would be as follows:
#11 Florida (8-2) gets upset by FSU (6-5). Possible, and not entirely unlikely, because a) rivalry game, and b) Florida's recent downsurge, loss of starting QB, and the potential of FSU's roster.
#12 Wisconsin (8-2) loses to either of Purdue (4-6) or #11 Minnesota (9-1). Technically a Wisconsin win over Minny could help us, but I feel like Iowa has a better chance of jumping a 9-3 Wisconsin than a 10-2 Minny. Don't sleep on Purdue though, their offense is built to attack Wisconsin's secondary and their riding high after emotional wins against Nebraska and Northwestern.
#13 Michigan (8-2) loses to either of Indiana (7-3) or #2 OSU (10-0). Loss to (an admittedly tough) Indiana would hurt perceptions of the Wolverines more IMO, though I don't foresee them keeping it close with the Buckeyes either.
#14 Baylor (9-1) loses to Texas (6-4), then loses B12CCG to #9 OU (9-1). Perception of a 10-3 Baylor squad that would have limped to the finish line once hitting the meat of their schedule, losing 3 of their last 4 might favor Iowa. Texas is reeling right now, but have the talent to take down the Bears.
#15 Auburn (7-3) loses to #5 Alabama (9-1). Here's a bit tricky, as Auburn remains the only team to ever be selected for the NY6 at 8-4 in 2016, and the SEC bias is still heavy in the committee. However, I'd have to say this scenario would favor Iowa, as Auburn would have gone 3-4 after starting 5-0.
#16 Notre Dame (8-2) loses to either of Boston College (5-5), or Stanford (4-6). ND's perception struggled mightily after getting walloped by Michigan, and neither of these teams are very good. Seems the least likely scenario on this list IMO.
Not really worried about G5 teams since the highest ranked gets an auto-bid (currently #18 Memphis (9-1)), and no others get picked, and not worried about being jumped by any of the P5 teams behind us (#21 Oklahoma State (7-3), #22 Iowa State (6-4), #23 Southern Cal (7-4))
3) Continue to have a good perception as a traveling fanbase, and just generally be attractive as a bowl opponent. Really the only one we as fans can affect, though also the most limited in influence.
So, a lot needs to happen, and its a bit of a pipe dream, but one can hope, and it gives us as fans rooting interests in games that would otherwise have no bearing on us.
If Iowa wants a shot at a NY6 bowl, we need a laundry list of extra help, but it's possible:
1) Win out (duh). Doing so convincingly would help our case even further.
2) We need some teams ahead of us to lose. The most likely scenarios for Iowa to move up significantly would be as follows:
#11 Florida (8-2) gets upset by FSU (6-5). Possible, and not entirely unlikely, because a) rivalry game, and b) Florida's recent downsurge, loss of starting QB, and the potential of FSU's roster.
#12 Wisconsin (8-2) loses to either of Purdue (4-6) or #11 Minnesota (9-1). Technically a Wisconsin win over Minny could help us, but I feel like Iowa has a better chance of jumping a 9-3 Wisconsin than a 10-2 Minny. Don't sleep on Purdue though, their offense is built to attack Wisconsin's secondary and their riding high after emotional wins against Nebraska and Northwestern.
#13 Michigan (8-2) loses to either of Indiana (7-3) or #2 OSU (10-0). Loss to (an admittedly tough) Indiana would hurt perceptions of the Wolverines more IMO, though I don't foresee them keeping it close with the Buckeyes either.
#14 Baylor (9-1) loses to Texas (6-4), then loses B12CCG to #9 OU (9-1). Perception of a 10-3 Baylor squad that would have limped to the finish line once hitting the meat of their schedule, losing 3 of their last 4 might favor Iowa. Texas is reeling right now, but have the talent to take down the Bears.
#15 Auburn (7-3) loses to #5 Alabama (9-1). Here's a bit tricky, as Auburn remains the only team to ever be selected for the NY6 at 8-4 in 2016, and the SEC bias is still heavy in the committee. However, I'd have to say this scenario would favor Iowa, as Auburn would have gone 3-4 after starting 5-0.
#16 Notre Dame (8-2) loses to either of Boston College (5-5), or Stanford (4-6). ND's perception struggled mightily after getting walloped by Michigan, and neither of these teams are very good. Seems the least likely scenario on this list IMO.
Not really worried about G5 teams since the highest ranked gets an auto-bid (currently #18 Memphis (9-1)), and no others get picked, and not worried about being jumped by any of the P5 teams behind us (#21 Oklahoma State (7-3), #22 Iowa State (6-4), #23 Southern Cal (7-4))
3) Continue to have a good perception as a traveling fanbase, and just generally be attractive as a bowl opponent. Really the only one we as fans can affect, though also the most limited in influence.
So, a lot needs to happen, and its a bit of a pipe dream, but one can hope, and it gives us as fans rooting interests in games that would otherwise have no bearing on us.
