Iowa's Path to a NY6 Game

The bottom line is there are just too many teams that Iowa would have to jump. 8 spots available for NY6. Let’s say Oregon grabs the 4th spot after winning the Pac12.

Alabama
Georgia
Oklahoma
Utah
Penn State
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Baylor
Notre Dame
Florida
Auburn (would be really bad if they beat Bama)
1 group of 5 (Memphis Cincy winner)

That’s 13 teams for 8 spots before Iowa. Most of those teams would stay above a three loss Iowa with only one loss. I can see us passing Baylor & Auburn, maybe one B1G team, but it still doesn’t appear realistic.
 
If we win our next 2 games convincingly, and

Osu destroys michigan, and

Wisconsin discombobulates minnesota, and

Osu trucks wisconsin, again,

We could possibly jump minnesota, michigan and wisconsin. Reason being is we lost to both michigan and wisconsin on the road in really tight games. Our other loss would be to penn state who would be going to the rose bowl.

That would put us at 14 and would really need to jump auburn and baylor if they lose like they should.

It would help if michigan loses to indiana and minnesota loses to nw. The problem then would be wisconsin. Do we jump a 3 loss Wisconsin who lost to osu twice and who beat us and who went to the title game?

In a dream scenario, minnesota loses to nw and wisconsin loses to purdue and then wisconsin beats minnesota.

The most coveted bowl game to go to, really out of all our options is the orange to face a crappy ACC team.
 
This is interesting, as I wrote off the NY6 possibility after Wisco. Assuming the upsets occur that were listed in the original post, two more things that could help Iowa's chances.

1. The last 'at large' NY6 team will most likely go to Cotton Bowl to play Group of 5 team (Boise St./Cincy/Memphis) so committee would want a fanbase that would be excited about this bowl and is fired up to travel in big numbers. Fans of ND, Florida, Wisco, Mich may not find going to Dallas to watch their 9-3 team play a Group of 5 that appealing. But Iowa sure would.

2. Barta is on the committee. Fans may not like the way he manages his head coaches, but he seems to be a good salesman, and the other committee members may bump Iowa up to be that last 'at large' selection.

But the realistic scenario that scares me is Iowa dropping down to the Red Box bowl. If Ohio St goes to playoffs, and Penn State goes to Rose Bowl (next highest rated team), Citrus probably takes Wisco (haven't been there in years), and Outback would take Minn (Iowa can't go there again). That leaves Holiday picking between Mich & Iowa. If they pick Mich, then Gator bowl is next. But Iowa has already been to Gator in this 6 year window, so Gator would have to take Indiana/Illinois. Iowa would then drop to Red Box, which would be disappointing.
 
JRD90 said:
This is interesting, as I wrote off the NY6 possibility after Wisco. Assuming the upsets occur that were listed in the original post, two more things that could help Iowa's chances.

1. The last 'at large' NY6 team will most likely go to Cotton Bowl to play Group of 5 team (Boise St./Cincy/Memphis) so committee would want a fanbase that would be excited about this bowl and is fired up to travel in big numbers. Fans of ND, Florida, Wisco, Mich may not find going to Dallas to watch their 9-3 team play a Group of 5 that appealing. But Iowa sure would.

2. Barta is on the committee. Fans may not like the way he manages his head coaches, but he seems to be a good salesman, and the other committee members may bump Iowa up to be that last 'at large' selection.

But the realistic scenario that scares me is Iowa dropping down to the Red Box bowl. If Ohio St goes to playoffs, and Penn State goes to Rose Bowl (next highest rated team), Citrus probably takes Wisco (haven't been there in years), and Outback would take Minn (Iowa can't go there again). That leaves Holiday picking between Mich & Iowa. If they pick Mich, then Gator bowl is next. But Iowa has already been to Gator in this 6 year window, so Gator would have to take Indiana/Illinois. Iowa would then drop to Red Box, which would be disappointing.
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I don't see a 9-3 Iowa dropping that far. The Big Ten gets 3 teams in the NY6 on average, and I see no reason for that to change this year with a relatively weak Pac-12 and an extremely weak ACC. If I had to take a stab at it how it'll play out, I'd say:

OSU in the CFP
Penn State in the Rose
11-2 Minny getting the Orange as a consolation prize/reward for their season
Michigan Citrus
Wisconsin Outback
Iowa in Gator or Holiday
 
dirtwrap said:
If we win our next 2 games convincingly, and

Osu destroys michigan, and

Wisconsin discombobulates minnesota, and

Osu trucks wisconsin, again,

We could possibly jump minnesota, michigan and wisconsin. Reason being is we lost to both michigan and wisconsin on the road in really tight games. Our other loss would be to penn state who would be going to the rose bowl.

That would put us at 14 and would really need to jump auburn and baylor if they lose like they should.

It would help if michigan loses to indiana and minnesota loses to nw. The problem then would be wisconsin. Do we jump a 3 loss Wisconsin who lost to osu twice and who beat us and who went to the title game?

In a dream scenario, minnesota loses to nw and wisconsin loses to purdue and then wisconsin beats minnesota.

The most coveted bowl game to go to, really out of all our options is the orange to face a crappy ACC team.
Click to expand...
I liked most of this post until the end. No ACC team is making the orange bowl. There are no “ties” with the NY6 games anymore.
 
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JRD90 said:
This is interesting, as I wrote off the NY6 possibility after Wisco. Assuming the upsets occur that were listed in the original post, two more things that could help Iowa's chances.

1. The last 'at large' NY6 team will most likely go to Cotton Bowl to play Group of 5 team (Boise St./Cincy/Memphis) so committee would want a fanbase that would be excited about this bowl and is fired up to travel in big numbers. Fans of ND, Florida, Wisco, Mich may not find going to Dallas to watch their 9-3 team play a Group of 5 that appealing. But Iowa sure would.

2. Barta is on the committee. Fans may not like the way he manages his head coaches, but he seems to be a good salesman, and the other committee members may bump Iowa up to be that last 'at large' selection.

But the realistic scenario that scares me is Iowa dropping down to the Red Box bowl. If Ohio St goes to playoffs, and Penn State goes to Rose Bowl (next highest rated team), Citrus probably takes Wisco (haven't been there in years), and Outback would take Minn (Iowa can't go there again). That leaves Holiday picking between Mich & Iowa. If they pick Mich, then Gator bowl is next. But Iowa has already been to Gator in this 6 year window, so Gator would have to take Indiana/Illinois. Iowa would then drop to Red Box, which would be disappointing.
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In your worst case scenario I think you left out the fact that multiple B1G teams will get NY6 bids. That will move up the pecking order.
 
Remember Wisconsin and Minnesota still have to play each other. How that game plays out can cause some movement.
Then the b10 championship and depending on how that game plays out can cause a lot of movement.
Again all we can do is win out. In doing so make the case that we have a defense that is worth show casing and an offense that has found it's groove.
 
I thought (and maybe this has changed) for a bowl to select a team over another in the pecking order the confrence has to have all bowl slots filled (9)and no extra. Right now BIG has 8 bowl eligible teams so we would need 1 more team eligible for the bowls to go out of conference finish order.
 
ChosenChildren said:
Yeah, 9-3 is a lost year.

Wrong
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It’s not a lost year, but what is Iowa playing for? If there we’re an all out playoff, they’d be playing for a playoff birth, seeding, home game, etc.....but that’s a different conversation. I guess they’re playing for a gator, holiday or redbox bowl bid. Yippee
 
NikeHawk21 said:
I liked most of this post until the end. No ACC team is making the orange bowl. There are no “ties” with the NY6 games anymore.
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Are you sure? From everything I read it looks like the orange bowl will have an ACC team no matter what. Being since Clemson is in the playoff, it will be somebody like Virginia Tech, Virginia, Pitt or Miami. They dont have to take a B1G team on the other side of course, that could be anyone in the top 12. I think ND is in there somewhere too.
 
eveningnewsteam said:
It’s not a lost year, but what is Iowa playing for? If there we’re an all out playoff, they’d be playing for a playoff birth, seeding, home game, etc.....but that’s a different conversation. I guess they’re playing for a gator, holiday or redbox bowl bid. Yippee
Click to expand...

Why try at anything ever then? I mean at one time you were making a few thousand a year bean walking or delivering papers. Now I'm sure you would like to be making millions a year. Probably landed somewhere in between. Why? Because you tried.
You didn't say "well I didn't make millions a year like I wanted, so what is the use." You also don't sit around saying your life is shit because you didn't make millions a year.
At least I hope you don't.
No you probably get up every day and keep grinding.

I knew last year this was going to be a tough schedule, I said if we win a bunch next year we will find ourselves at the top of the polls. Deservingly. Not because we played a bunch of easy games.
But when you have almost half your games against the top part of the teams in all of college football, it's hard to win them all.
Basically we played an Olympic kind of schedule, the best of the best. For almost half the season!!!
We did pretty good and our team can hold their heads high.
Now it all comes down to finishing.
 
BVHawk95 said:
I don't see a 9-3 Iowa dropping that far. The Big Ten gets 3 teams in the NY6 on average, and I see no reason for that to change this year with a relatively weak Pac-12 and an extremely weak ACC. If I had to take a stab at it how it'll play out, I'd say:

OSU in the CFP
Penn State in the Rose
11-2 Minny getting the Orange as a consolation prize/reward for their season
Michigan Citrus
Wisconsin Outback
Iowa in Gator or Holiday
Click to expand...

If the preferences hold, remember that neither the Citrus nor the Outback wants Michigan, and a 3rd loss to OSU will certainly remove them from at large consideration.
Citrus nor Holiday wants Minnesota
Outback nor Gator does not want Iowa
No Outback or Holiday for Wisconsin.

By that logic and assuming OSU beats Michigan and Wisconsin beats Minnesota, we win out and no other upsets:

OSU 13-0 in CFP
PSU 10-2 to Rose
Wisconsin 10-3 to Orange
Iowa 9-3 to Citrus
Minnesota 10-2 to Outback
Michigan 9-3 to Holiday
Indiana 8-4 to Gator

If Minnesota beats Wisconsin

OSU 13-0 in CFP
Minnesota 11-2 to Rose
PSU 10-2 to Orange
Wisconsin 9-3 to Citrus.
Outback I think would break their rule and take Iowa or Michigan to avoid taking Indiana. Right?
Holiday - the one that Outback didnt take
Indiana to Gator
 
eveningnewsteam said:
Is there really a difference between the Gator, Holiday or RedBox? All 3 will receive the same national attention/coverage, zero.
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Yes, there actually is a big difference... in payouts. For last year's bowl season, the Holiday Bowl payout was $6.33 million, the Red Box Bowl payout was $3.6 million and the Gator Bowl payout was $3.17 million. (The Outback Bowl payout Iowa received was $6.35 million.)

So yes, there's a huge difference - of the three you listed we want the Holiday Bowl. That is, unless you don't think $3 million is no difference.
 
dirtwrap said:
Are you sure? From everything I read it looks like the orange bowl will have an ACC team no matter what. Being since Clemson is in the playoff, it will be somebody like Virginia Tech, Virginia, Pitt or Miami. They dont have to take a B1G team on the other side of course, that could be anyone in the top 12. I think ND is in there somewhere too.
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Researching that more I think you are correct. That’s miserable, those teams won’t even be ranked in the top 25. Well that’s another reason Iowa to NY6 is a pipe dream.
 
Knight78 said:
Yes, there actually is a big difference... in payouts. For last year's bowl season, the Holiday Bowl payout was $6.33 million, the Red Box Bowl payout was $3.6 million and the Gator Bowl payout was $3.17 million. (The Outback Bowl payout Iowa received was $6.35 million.)

So yes, there's a huge difference - of the three you listed we want the Holiday Bowl. That is, unless you don't think $3 million is no difference.
Click to expand...

I guess I’ll cheer harder in the game that pays out more
 
The easier way for Iowa would be to have Iowa beat Illinois and Nebraska, have Minnesota loose to Northwestern and Wisconsin, and have Purdue best Wisconsin. Go into the championship game and win and find yourself in a Rose Bowl. But this ain’t happening either.
 
PlatypusMessiah said:
The easier way for Iowa would be to have Iowa beat Illinois and Nebraska, have Minnesota loose to Northwestern and Wisconsin, and have Purdue best Wisconsin. Go into the championship game and win and find yourself in a Rose Bowl. But this ain’t happening either.
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Even if that happens we lose the tiebreaker for the west. But, if that does all happen, and osu trucks the west winner, we may sneak into the ny6.
 
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