It depends on how well Stanley plays, and if we can get pressure on Patterson. Michigan will pressure Stanley, stop the run and play man coverage, as their defensive backs are all 4 star players, and superior athletes to what we have at receiver. They have the 3rd ranked pass defense in the nation. This is a game where we will certainly miss Hock and Fant. Will our receivers be able to get open? Will Stanley be able to handle the pressure and be accurate with the ball? Will our linebackers and dbs be able to keep up with the receivers they have?
JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
Michigan’s DBs are unproven. Their pass defense is only that good statistically because they’ve played Army and Wisconsin. It helps that Rutgers sucks. Michigan’s rushing defense so far is pretty terrible. Iowa’s offensive line will dominate Michigan, book it. The only way they get any pressure on Stanley is with significant pressure from linebackers and corners, and if he make the right reads he can punish that.
chucktownhawk
Well-Known Member
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
A little surprised by all the confidence here.
Here’s a question for the board. Who is a better football team Michigan or Iowa State?
Here’s a question for the board. Who is a better football team Michigan or Iowa State?
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
Since 2000, Iowa and Michigan have played 12 times and Iowa is 7-5.
The 2 times Iowa lost by double digits were 2012 and 2004. Denard Robinson was their QB in 2012 and 2004 was Chad Henne and Braylon Edwards.
The eye test thus far tells me Iowa is the better team. I'm not sold on Patterson and the Mich offense and their D had a LB get drafted #10 and a DE drafted #12 so they lost some really good talent.
I'm pretty confident Iowa can keep this close and have a chance to win.
The 2 times Iowa lost by double digits were 2012 and 2004. Denard Robinson was their QB in 2012 and 2004 was Chad Henne and Braylon Edwards.
The eye test thus far tells me Iowa is the better team. I'm not sold on Patterson and the Mich offense and their D had a LB get drafted #10 and a DE drafted #12 so they lost some really good talent.
I'm pretty confident Iowa can keep this close and have a chance to win.
The transitive property does not exist in college football.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
100% agree I’m just posing the question as a benchmark. Each game is unique in itself.
I’m just surprised at the level of confidence from Iowa fans. I think the Wisconsin game is really molding a lot of folks opinions of Michigan’s team.
Some people think we are going to go on the road against a top 20 level team and blow them out. That would be very impressive and I hope they are right.
ibahawkeye
Well-Known Member
I gotta admit, your question has me second guessing my confidence. I gotta believe Mich is as good as ISU and we trailed most of that one. I also hear Cowherd take Michigan which doesn't really bother me but he referenced our weak schedule thus far. ISU doesn't have a winning record so that loss doesn't look as good right now.
Michigan just hasn't passed the eye test and it's more than the Wisconsin game.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Iowa’s secondary is a huge concern. Brents is back but it doesn’t sound like he will be used all that much (we will see). Michigan has the weapons to exploit our depleted secondary.
Iowa has advantages elsewhere that shouldn’t be downplayed.
I also think Iowa fans are clinging to this turnover stat. Yes we’ve been pretty good at not turning it over, but most football statisticians will tell you turnovers are a good deal luck, regardless of how well coached and disciplined you are. People are saying Michigan turns it over a lot and Iowa doesn’t, which is great, but in any one game setting it’s possible that those trends reverse.
JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
The rest of what you’ve said is sound, but I’ve got to disagree on this point. I think what you are referring to is that most statisticians will tell you that when the ball is fumbled, the team that recovers it is largely left up to chance, and therefore “luck,” because the way the ball bounces is chaotic and unpredictable. It’s just like trying to get a spare on a 7-10 split, a bowler is hitting one pin and hoping for the best, the rest is nearly 100% up to luck. The cause of an interception being thrown or a ball being fumbled has very little to do with luck, most of the time. An interception not being caught can come down to luck, as we’ve seen with Stanley a number of times this season. I’d be with you if Iowa had fumbled the ball six times and recovered five of those fumbles. That would be lucky, but ball security has been really good so far.
JoeyLabasForPresident
Well-Known Member
Yeah, with all of Michigan’s wins against strong teams, and a “quality loss” to a strong opponent, Cowherd has some really strong logic there, doesn’t he? The argument falls apart when you plays like shit against a (slightly) stronger schedule. It’s apples to oranges.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
I appreciate your perspective and I do think iowa is well coached and disciplined, but no I absolutely meant what I said which is that turnovers have a lot to do with sheer luck.
"The analytics say that turnovers are way, way more random than coaches or fans think," said Ed Feng, the curator of The Power Rank analytics service who has a Ph.D. in applied math from Stanford. "It's not a perfect way to say there's no skill. It's just that turnovers are a really subtle thing, and randomness plays a much bigger role than people want to think."
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...aches-their-everlasting-quest-coach-turnovers
Motigerhawk
Well-Known Member
Iowa by 7. We will punish them and run the ball down their throat. We will be conservative and control the clock. But we are up by 14 and let scUM score with 3 minutes left. to pull within 7. They fail getting the onside kick. We run the clock out.
Go Hawks!
Go Hawks!
The Big LeHAWKski
Well-Known Member
The Iowa State game was such a screwed up-cluster of a day, with So many oddball variables in play that the only thing you can take from it is that Iowa made fewer mistakes and escaped with the W.
Other than that don;t read too much into it.
Based on how Iowa has played recently - AND HOW GREAT THEY'VE BEEN PRACTICING lately,
I'm gonna say...
Iowa 23
Michigan 21
K. Duncan is a stone-cold Wolverine killin' machine!
chucktownhawk
Well-Known Member
iloveyoularrystation
Well-Known Member
Pre-season i had this a loss for iowa, cause Michigan is a good team and its at home and their defense has been elite the last several years. At this point in the year here's what i know now.....Its still at Michigan, their defense is okay, not great, but they haven't played like a very good football team. I think ultimately this game is 100% a referendum on the direction Michigan is going. They had the big offensive switch in the off-season, which was supposed to bring them oodles and oodles of points. The problem: their offense has been pretty pedestrian because they get beat up on the line of scrimmage on a weekly basis including against army. First of all thank you to all those guys for Army who serve our country, they are the best of us, and were able to talk and watch college football because of their sacrifices and the sacrifices of those men and women who protect us every day......having said that......army's football team should never destroy Michigan all game long at the line of scrimmage, literally, ever. Michigan's new hotness offense has been mediocre, and their team mediocre, because they can't win the line of scrimmage against anybody.
Fast forward now to this week. If Michigan's studly offense can't throw and score points with those receivers against our 2nd, 5th, and 6th best corners......then you have to question the direction of where they are going at this stage of the tenure. I'm a niners fan, i loved jimmy when he was our coach there, but if they can't score points throwing against our backups, then maybe this thing ain't gonna work like they want it to.
This week comes down to one position battle; Michigan's Oline versus our Dline. Most fans look at the lack of sacks and feel our dline has underwhelmed. Michigan's oline has definitely underwhelmed. Can our dline get home, or will patterson have enough time to find studly wide receivers against our beat up secondary? That's the whole game.
With that, i think parker does enough scheming with our secondary to keep the young kids from giving up too much, and our dline gets home against a bad oline.... the hawks sneak out of the big house with a 21-17 win.I think the wolves hit about 4-5 big plays in the passing game, 2 go for tds, 1 ends up a field goal, and the other one ends up in a defensive stop for Iowa. I think chauncey and Eppy make enough plays late, for us to sneak out with a win.
No matter what happens i honestly think this game says more about Michigan then it does Iowa.
Fast forward now to this week. If Michigan's studly offense can't throw and score points with those receivers against our 2nd, 5th, and 6th best corners......then you have to question the direction of where they are going at this stage of the tenure. I'm a niners fan, i loved jimmy when he was our coach there, but if they can't score points throwing against our backups, then maybe this thing ain't gonna work like they want it to.
This week comes down to one position battle; Michigan's Oline versus our Dline. Most fans look at the lack of sacks and feel our dline has underwhelmed. Michigan's oline has definitely underwhelmed. Can our dline get home, or will patterson have enough time to find studly wide receivers against our beat up secondary? That's the whole game.
With that, i think parker does enough scheming with our secondary to keep the young kids from giving up too much, and our dline gets home against a bad oline.... the hawks sneak out of the big house with a 21-17 win.I think the wolves hit about 4-5 big plays in the passing game, 2 go for tds, 1 ends up a field goal, and the other one ends up in a defensive stop for Iowa. I think chauncey and Eppy make enough plays late, for us to sneak out with a win.
No matter what happens i honestly think this game says more about Michigan then it does Iowa.
iloveyoularrystation
Well-Known Member
I think if they played i'd take iowa state right now, with no hesitation.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Sagarin: ISU 29 / UM 17
Massey: ISU 45 / UM 19
TeamRankings: ISU 29 / UM 13
That Iowa State game was a very weird one for sure. Most folks would disagree that Iowa State is a better team. Did we forget about ISU almost losing to UNI?
Again I don’t really care and I’m not trying to go down this road too much I just brought it up as a reference point. I don’t want to get hammered by posters on the ISU thing it was a completely different day and I understand each game is unique. Iowa can beat Michigan I’m just surprised at the confidence level here.
