Iowa/Penn St Predictions

I refuse to predict, I am deep into superstition mode. This has been a very up and down week and my timing/luck could go either way. Half tempted to declare a tie so I do not fall off the fence..........

Can't wait for the game though......I am getting pumped. Only real decision is whether it will be pizza or wings! (or both) Beer is a given..............
 
Luftgekuehlt67 said:
I think the Hawks handle them pretty comfortably. I'm no good with actual score predictions, but I could see a 7-10 point Iowa win as a likely outcome.

I hope I don't live to regret saying this, but I'm pretty sure Penn State is overrated - perhaps significantly. I think Iowa could give them fits on both sides of the ball, honestly.

The line right now is PSU -2 points, which is really kind of funny (both "haha" and "kinda weird" funny). The old rule of thumb is home field is worth a FG. Given that this is Iowa and we're pretty well known to have an above-average home field advantage, the home field factor is likely even a couple points more than a FG for us. So really, I'm taking that line to be an assessment that PSU is more like a TD better than us on a neutral field.

I think that's way off, possibly even flipped.

PSU moves the ball, but doesn't score many points. I think that plays right into our defensive tendencies.

I also suspect PSU to be vulnerable to the run. We don't need 200 yards and 6 ypc, but if we can be just effective enough to make PSU have to work to stop the run, I think our passing game can and will find production.

I've done a bit of digging into how PSU's games have played out, I really think they may be a bit of a paper tiger.

I'm unconvinced Iowa is the 3rd best team in the country, but I have a suspicion we are good enough to start PSU on their spiral towards a top 15-25 type final ranking.
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Did you look at the odds though? If PSU wins ATS, Vegas is losing money on a 50/50 betting pool. If they were giving - odds I'd say that was to offset the size of the Pennsylvania betting pool vs the Iowa betting pool. But it's not, they're giving + odds for PSU. They're begging for PSU betters when they'd lose money if Iowa beat the spread (which means an Iowa W). Vegas does not lose money. It's a fishy line, for sure.
 
Iowa 41 Penn St. 17. Iowa's offense is better than it was last year. Our defense and special teams have been top flight, way better than last year. And we did beat them 41-21 last year at their place.
 
Have watched PSU...boils down to us being able to run when WE want to, our O line handling their pressure schemes, Brian's game plan, if we can handle these issues offensively we can score. Defensively we have to shut down the run and do what we do best, see the routes, tip passes, consistently pressure Clifford, keep Clifford contained, and win the field position battle.

So believing we can do those things, I like Iowa 34 to 17. Iowa scores on a defensive TO, and on special teams.
 
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I’m hoping the crowd plays a factor! I haven’t been this nervous since the B1G title game in ‘15. I don’t like how this one looks.
Penn St. 24
Iowa 17
 
Argument could be made that the crowd won this game. But Taylor’s punting put our crowd in the position of being the decisive factor that they were. All due respect to Hawkeyes punters in the past, I have never seen precision like this before.
 
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