If we are going to play that game than we cannot ignore how horrendously bad our own Rick Stanzi played in the first quarter last year. He missed 2 or 3 wide open TD passes on different drives. He didn't finally settle down until hitting Stross on a long crossing route (one that he missed WIDE open in the first) and also threw a bad pick that led to ISU's only points.
Looking back at ISU's wins in this series us Iowa fans generally overstate Iowa's talent in those games. Of all the games ISU has won since ending the streak, only in 2002 was there a sizable talent gap. In 98, 99, and 2000 ISU was better. In 01 the teams were extremely equal, hence the close game (but ISU had the better QB). 02 was an upset. 05 might have been ISU's best defense under McCarney - a solid team that would have won some more games had Hicks not been injured, and in 07, cripes both teams stunk and we had one of the worst QBs in school history.
My point? When Iowa has the better talent it usually wins and wins by double digits. When the talent is comparable ISU for whatever reason wins the close ones. This year it appears to me we (Iowa) have much more talent. My basis for this is the fact we have so many returning starters from a team that won a BCS game last year (it's not based on "we are Iowa so we have more talent" - that kind of thinking got us destroyed in 05). Coupled with the fact that ISU played well in its opener and Iowa had its bad moments in its opener, history tells me Iowa wins this game by two scores.