I think the point is not that Iowa has lost the games because of certain things they have done, but rather they have been close in every game because of certain things they have done. It is also hard to look back at each game and say they could have won if they did this or that...maybe even if the team had done all the things mentioned in this thread they would have the exact same record in those games but may have won or lost by more points. It is difficult to win football games even if you do everything right.
Iowa has lost 8 games since start of 2008 season
- Thread starter JonDMiller
- Start date
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
I am enthusiastic, but that isn't what this is about. I just think that the stat being discussed here (record in games decided by 8 points or less among BCS-bowl teams) is completely arbitrary and doesn't really tell you anything about Iowa's success or lack thereof.
Here's why: if Iowa had quit at halftime and gotten blown out by Arizona (which just about every other team in the country would have done), they would have a better record in close games, but they wouldn't be a better team. If they had let Tate Forcier drive down the field for another late game score, they'd have a better record in close games, but they wouldn't be a better team. If they'd kicked a field goal instead of having Brandon Wegher take it to the house against Georgia Tech, they'd have a better record in close games, but they wouldn't be a better team.
There are some statistics that tell you a lot and others that tell you nothing. I put this whole "8 points or less in the last five years" in the latter category, because it rewards teams for getting blown out and penalizes them for winning big. Trust me, I was through the freaking roof Saturday night when we called that timeout. But I don't think it's indicative of Iowa's ability to win close games or manage the clock. We have been pretty good at it before and we will be again, and I'm sure we'll flub another one somewhere along the way too. It's just part of the sport-- you can't name a coach that hasn't fouled up a couple of these, unless they're constantly getting blown out.
burky247
Well-Known Member
Great post.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Iowa is 75-9 when leading after 3 quarters and 7-46 when it trails after three quarters, under Ferentz, per the sports info notes.
In 2008, Iowa led 17-14 at Pitt after three quarters...kicked a FG to pull to within 1 with over 10 min remaining in game, and neither team scored again.
Iowa led NW 17-3 in second quarter, and led 17-16 end of third...Greene got smoked head to head, no call, fumbled, Iowa turned it over 5 times that day, but had first and goal at 8 with under a minute left and could not score a TD and lost 22-17.
Iowa never led MSU, but had 4th and 2 inside MSU 25 real late in the game but Wade Leppert went wrong way to block and Greene was TFL'd.
At ILL, Iowa was down 24-9 with about 14min to go in game...came back to tie it with 2:46 to go and ILL hit a 46yd FG with :26 left...Stanzi had a fumble returned for TD that game, and I think Iowa had three possessions inside the ILL 20 in the first half and only got six points out of those.
2009: Up 10-0 and rolling when Stanzi went down, fumbled in EZ, NW recovered..Iowa never scored again.
OSU: Iowa down 24-10 with 11:11 to go in 4th, then DJK ran it right back...tied it with 2:42 to go in game...lost in OT.
This year, Iowa never led vs AZ, but came back to tie it in the 4th Q. blocked XP kept them from winning. Iowa led in 4th v Wisconsin , but lost it. Wisky led after three quarters. I wouldn't say Iowa went conservative, and Wisky went for it on three fourth down plays on their last drive, that was 15 plays.
The only 'got conservative at end' that I can recall from these is OSU, but I agreed with Kirk why he didn't try to move it vs OSU, with a RS frosh QB, and the kind of areas that would be exploitable, JVB had been picked or nearly pick four times in the game.
Here are the 8 losses:
2008 (9-4)
21-20 loss to a 9-4 Pitt team
22-17 loss to a 9-4 Northwestern team
16-13 loss to a 9-4 Michigan State team
27-24 loss to a 5-7 Illinois team
2009 (11-2)
17-10 loss to an 8-5 Northwestern team
27-24 loss to an 11-2 Ohio State team
2010 (5-2)
34-27 loss to a 6-1 Arizona team
31-30 loss to a 7-1 Wisconsin team
On paper, the only loss that really looks bad is the Illinois loss in 2008. But if you really look at the talent on the 2008 team compared to the talent on the teams that beat us, you would have to favor Iowa in every one of those matchups.
In 2009, we lost our leader, but shouldn't we be good enough to beat an 8-5 Northwestern team without one key player? If not, then how did Wisconsin beat us this year without their best running back, their best TE, their best receiver, their best linebacker, and a starting defensive lineman?
It's my opinion that the talent gap in favor in Iowa should have resulted in all of the 2008 games being wins (and to be fair, you could say we overcame the talent gap in beating Penn State that year, so there's one game back). In 2009, we were talented enough to beat Northwestern without Stanzi. The Ohio State loss is understandable.
This year, it's tough to say, but I still think Iowa has better talent than either Arizona or Wisconsin (especially given Wisconsin's injuries) and the reasons for these losses have been hashed out and debated, but the one constant everyone agrees on is that both of these games were Iowa LOSSES and not opponent wins (missed PAT, bad snap, KO return, Pick 6, clock management, etc).
2008 (9-4)
21-20 loss to a 9-4 Pitt team
22-17 loss to a 9-4 Northwestern team
16-13 loss to a 9-4 Michigan State team
27-24 loss to a 5-7 Illinois team
2009 (11-2)
17-10 loss to an 8-5 Northwestern team
27-24 loss to an 11-2 Ohio State team
2010 (5-2)
34-27 loss to a 6-1 Arizona team
31-30 loss to a 7-1 Wisconsin team
On paper, the only loss that really looks bad is the Illinois loss in 2008. But if you really look at the talent on the 2008 team compared to the talent on the teams that beat us, you would have to favor Iowa in every one of those matchups.
In 2009, we lost our leader, but shouldn't we be good enough to beat an 8-5 Northwestern team without one key player? If not, then how did Wisconsin beat us this year without their best running back, their best TE, their best receiver, their best linebacker, and a starting defensive lineman?
It's my opinion that the talent gap in favor in Iowa should have resulted in all of the 2008 games being wins (and to be fair, you could say we overcame the talent gap in beating Penn State that year, so there's one game back). In 2009, we were talented enough to beat Northwestern without Stanzi. The Ohio State loss is understandable.
This year, it's tough to say, but I still think Iowa has better talent than either Arizona or Wisconsin (especially given Wisconsin's injuries) and the reasons for these losses have been hashed out and debated, but the one constant everyone agrees on is that both of these games were Iowa LOSSES and not opponent wins (missed PAT, bad snap, KO return, Pick 6, clock management, etc).
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
I disagree regarding the Wisconsin game. I have never seen a team come into Kinnick against a good Iowa team and make pretty much zero mistakes. I realize Tolzien threw an interception; it happens. There were so many points in the game when we need Wisconsin to false start or have a dumb pass interference penalty, and they just didn't do it. Not to mention the way they pretty much marched up and down the field on offense.
We did some stupid things, but don't ignore how well Wisconsin played. I honestly did not think they were that good, or at least that they would be that good at Kinnick. They put us in a position where our mistakes killed us. Not every team can do that.
DrakeHawk20
Active Member
I would much rather be in every game than get blown out in any game. How much fun is that? The style Iowa plays keeps us in games and we rely on execution, or opponents mistakes, to win. Sometimes you have to tip your cap to the other team.
To put things in perspective, from the beginning of the 2008 season, I decided to check out how many BCS conference teams lost a single game by 30 or more points which is the total margin of defeat for our Hawkeyes over that time. The number staggering. 51/65 (78%) teams lost one or more games by at least that margin. Of the remaining schools (14/65 or 22%), the list is pretty impressive. Further, Iowa has the lowest margin of defeat in any of their games they lost (7 points) and points per game (3.8).
School--------------Losses / Largest Margin of Defeat / Points per game
Iowa------------------8-----------------7---------------------3.8
Virginia Tech----------9-----------------10-------------------5.3
Clemson--------------14---------------24--------------------7.4
W. Virginia------------10---------------21--------------------7.9
Pittsburgh------------10---------------28--------------------8.8
Mississippi------------12---------------19--------------------9.4
Florida----------------5----------------25--------------------10.4
Miami (FL)-----------13---------------28--------------------10.5
UConn---------------14---------------26--------------------11.1
Texas----------------5----------------22--------------------11.8
Stanford-------------13---------------24--------------------11.8
Alabama-------------3----------------14---------------------13.0
Penn State----------7-----------------21---------------------15.0
Cincinnati-----------8------------------27--------------------15.6
Looking at this a number of things stand out. First, that is an impressive list and second, powers USC, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are not on the list illustrating the fact that even the best schools have a down game or two. But not Iowa. Further, considering the fact that Iowa's largest margin of defeat is 7 points again demonstrates that they have been in every game they have played in over the last 2.5 years. If you subtract out the teams that have lost a single game by >2 scores (>16 points), that leaves only Iowa, Virginia Tech, and Alabama as the schools to play competitive football week in and week out for the last 2+ football seasons. I will take that!
Do we have a chance under Ferentz to go undefeated and play in the National Championship? You bet! On paper I thought this year's team had an excellent chance to win out. Am I upset that we have lost our opportunity this year? Of course. However, sometimes you need a little lady luck on your side to make that happen.
To put things in perspective, from the beginning of the 2008 season, I decided to check out how many BCS conference teams lost a single game by 30 or more points which is the total margin of defeat for our Hawkeyes over that time. The number staggering. 51/65 (78%) teams lost one or more games by at least that margin. Of the remaining schools (14/65 or 22%), the list is pretty impressive. Further, Iowa has the lowest margin of defeat in any of their games they lost (7 points) and points per game (3.8).
School--------------Losses / Largest Margin of Defeat / Points per game
Iowa------------------8-----------------7---------------------3.8
Virginia Tech----------9-----------------10-------------------5.3
Clemson--------------14---------------24--------------------7.4
W. Virginia------------10---------------21--------------------7.9
Pittsburgh------------10---------------28--------------------8.8
Mississippi------------12---------------19--------------------9.4
Florida----------------5----------------25--------------------10.4
Miami (FL)-----------13---------------28--------------------10.5
UConn---------------14---------------26--------------------11.1
Texas----------------5----------------22--------------------11.8
Stanford-------------13---------------24--------------------11.8
Alabama-------------3----------------14---------------------13.0
Penn State----------7-----------------21---------------------15.0
Cincinnati-----------8------------------27--------------------15.6
Looking at this a number of things stand out. First, that is an impressive list and second, powers USC, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are not on the list illustrating the fact that even the best schools have a down game or two. But not Iowa. Further, considering the fact that Iowa's largest margin of defeat is 7 points again demonstrates that they have been in every game they have played in over the last 2.5 years. If you subtract out the teams that have lost a single game by >2 scores (>16 points), that leaves only Iowa, Virginia Tech, and Alabama as the schools to play competitive football week in and week out for the last 2+ football seasons. I will take that!
Do we have a chance under Ferentz to go undefeated and play in the National Championship? You bet! On paper I thought this year's team had an excellent chance to win out. Am I upset that we have lost our opportunity this year? Of course. However, sometimes you need a little lady luck on your side to make that happen.
Good stuff there. Not what I expected to see. But, looking back from 2005 through Saturday, it seems to me we have trouble in the one score games against good competition. Not sure what that tells us, but in my gut it's because better competition plays more aggressive than we do, and conversely we play more conservative against better competition:
2010
1 score losses:
Arizona - good team when Foles is healthy
Wisconsin - great team
These are the only 2 good teams we've play so far this year.
2009
1 score wins:
UNI - bad team
Ark. State - bad team
A bad Michigan team
MSU - average team
2009
1 score losses:
N.W. - decent team
OSU - great team - great effort by us and as Jon will recall he and I disagree mightely about the decision to play for overtime.
We didn't have our starting QB for either. If Stanzi doesn't get hurt against N.W., we win by double digits.
2008 1 score wins:
Purdue - bad team
Penn State - great team
2008 1 score losses:
Pitt - decent team
N.W. - decent team
MSU - decent team
Illinois - average team
2007 1 score wins
MSU - bad team
Minnesota - average team?
Illinois - really good
2007 1 score losses:
ISU
Wisconsin
2006 1 score wins:
Syracuse - bad team
2006 1 score losses:
Indiana - decent Indiana team
Wisconsin - decent Wisconsin team
Texas - decent, but underperforming Texas team
2005 1 score wins:
Zero
2005 1 score losses:
Michigan
N.W.
Florida
We have had two marquee 1 score wins: PSU in 2008 and Illinois in 2007. MSU last year was an average team, so they are on the fringe. Otherwise, we definitely struggle to win the one score games against relatively equal competition. I think it goes to what some of the frustration is on the board - if the game plan works and we can get some separation (even against the good teams) then we are golden; but if the game plan isn't working and the game is tight against good teams, we struggle to win these.
Last edited:
Hawke
Well-Known Member
That's an impressive body of work.
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
Awesome post, DrakeHawk. I wanted to do a similar investigation but I had to at least pretend to work today. Plus you always have been better at math than me.
olivecourt
Well-Known Member
So if our game plan isn't working against good teams, we struggle to win. I mean... yeah. That's why you want your game plan to work. I doubt there is another team in America that could say they have an easy time winning when their game plan doesn't work against good teams.
I continue to be flummoxed by this topic.
This isn't rocket science. I think the point of this topic is that Iowa plays a lot of close games, win or lose. We appear to play a lot more close games than our contemporaries. We are having a fun discussion about what that means, is there a trend, is there a common denominator in the wins or losses, etc.? If you don't like the discussion than don't read it.
Many people feel that when the gameplan isn't necessarily working we don't adjust well, and it appears to cost us in close games against better competition. Sometimes the game plan is working great, which allows us to keep it close, but we can't finish it off in the 4th against good competition. Defensively our gameplan Saturday didn't work from the opening kickoff...and it didn't change one ounce all the way through Wisconsin scoring the winning touchdown. I doubt there is another team in America that thinks their gameplan is going to work every game and there will never be a need to adjust or rethink the plan as the game goes on. Seriously, do you think at halftime of games the staff for the team that is losing gets together and says, "gameplan's not working, let's go home."?
