Iowa has lost 8 games since start of 2008 season

[BALDIES7980]

As I posted earlier, of all the teams (a total of 27) that have made a BCS bowl in the last 5 years, Iowa is dead last in games decided by 8 points or less at 11-15.

So yes, we have certainly been in most games. Unfortunately, we are losing them at a clip that is worse than any successful major BCS team. To jump to the "next level" that just can not happen.

I think 2 things contribute to that:

1. Clock management at the end of half and end of games. There are points there for the taking that the staff has not taken advantage of.

2. "Bend but don't break" at all times. I love this defense. However, to get to the elite level, we HAVE to be willing to take chances on defense and make the quarterback as uncomfortable as possible. Contrast our defensive philosophy, at home, with a 6 point lead against Arizona's philosophy, at home, with a 7 point lead. I know we have been more successful than Arizona over time. However, I use that to prove a point that sometimes, you just have to bring it and not sit back and let the opposition bring it to you.

No risk no reward!
KF has done a great job he just really has to look in the mirror and realize the opposition knows what he is going to do most of the time. And it puts you at a disadvantage. Wisky knew what team went on the field for the punt and they were in a tough spot with ^mins left kicking away to us was very likely an L in the book. They really had no choice and we played it just like they expected and we expected them to follow the ******.
IMO KF's style makes it harder than it has to be for the players. Others teams get alot more plays where they catch the opponent out of position and exploit it. We tell them what we are going to do and are them to beat us. I can only imagine the success this program would have if KF would open up his mind to change in some small ways to create easier success on the field. No doubt that our staff is very good but there are alot more weapons they could put in their bag to use if they would just think about it and give it a chance.

 

[BALDIES7980]

Here's another fascinating one, again since the beginning of the 2008 season:

Oklahoma 26-8 (34 games), Iowa 25-8 (33 games)

Wins by 7 or less: Oklahoma 4, Iowa 6

Losses by 7 or less: Oklahoma 4, Iowa 8

Combined deficit in 8 losses: Oklahoma 69, Iowa 30

Iowa doesn't blow out teams like Oklahoma does (they have a lot of 62-21 type scores in the last three years), but their overall record is virtually identical. Iowa is 6-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less, Oklahoma is 4-4. Oklahoma has two less close wins than we do but has been less competitive in their 8 losses, losing by more than twice the margin Iowa has.

This is a team that had three players drafted in last year's first four picks, played for the national title two years ago and was ranked #1 last week. If Iowa continues to play at this level in future years they have a shot to be in a similar situation (draft picks excluded... I doubt we ever see that again).

So with a few better decisions made and a couple of times we attacked with what we knew was working instead of running the clock with smash mouth football we could easily posted 4 more wins and be better than Okla.
Oh and had many fewer games where we were begging for the clock to run out.

 

[remohawk]

I was thinking the same thing the day after the game, another close loss, its heartbreaking but at the same time I really believe its the reason we can consistently compete with teams like OSU and the like. I mean were comparing our record to two elite college football programs with consistently better recruiting classes and much more depth of talent. Although I definitely think we should always aspire to great things like National Titles, we can't expect them to happen even traditional powers with multiple NC's have troubles from time to time, look at one of the teams were comparing ourselves to Oklahoma, since the BCS started they have played in 5 NC's more then anyone else, but only have one win to their name. Even at the top the margin is razor thin. We play a style of football that allows us to win with execution not outright talent. So one mistake makes a huge difference but this is true for anyone not just us. It is critical to not make mistakes but they will happen and the key is to minimize them. Certainly the coaching staff will identify and them and continue to work on them.

 

[SirJamaLot]

by a total of 30 points...or little more than a field goal per game.

Great job of pointing out the positive Jon!!! It will be interesting how the players play sat. after an emotional loss, MSU is a better team than Whisky, Go Hawks take out your frustrations on Sparty!!!

 

[Section136]

MSU is a better team than Whisky

At this point of the season, Im not so sure about that.

 

[hoffahawk]

I have one to add:

The last time we scored 30 points and lost?

2002 vs. ISU

 

[Imlivingthedream]

No risk no reward!
KF has done a great job he just really has to look in the mirror and realize the opposition knows what he is going to do most of the time. And it puts you at a disadvantage. Wisky knew what team went on the field for the punt and they were in a tough spot with ^mins left kicking away to us was very likely an L in the book. They really had no choice and we played it just like they expected and we expected them to follow the ******.
IMO KF's style makes it harder than it has to be for the players. Others teams get alot more plays where they catch the opponent out of position and exploit it. We tell them what we are going to do and are them to beat us. I can only imagine the success this program would have if KF would open up his mind to change in some small ways to create easier success on the field. No doubt that our staff is very good but there are alot more weapons they could put in their bag to use if they would just think about it and give it a chance.

this. Wisconsin was walking one safety into the box the whole first half and we had single coverage on DJK and McNutt.

we have a very good staff but adjusting on the fly has never been a strength.

 

[StatelineHawk]

I want no one else but KF as coach, but Iowa is 0-4 in the last 4 games decided by a TD or less. They were also favored in 3 of those games.

 

[olivecourt]

I want no one else but KF as coach, but Iowa is 0-4 in the last 4 losses by a TD or less. They were also favored in 3 of those games.

Um, what? Iowa is 0 for everything in their last losses. That's what a loss is.

If you're saying they're 0-4 in the last 4 games decided by a touchdown or less, fine. Should we have beat teams by fewer points to pump our record in close games?

Before the streak you mentioned, we won four in a row that were decided by a touchdown or less. One of those was against Michigan State. I seem to remember it being a big deal at the time. But apparently Kirk Ferentz doesn't know how to win the close ones or manage the end of games so he must have been getting orders via Blackberry from Urban Meyer or something.

 

[StatelineHawk]

Um, what? Iowa is 0 for everything in their last losses. That's what a loss is.

If you're saying they're 0-4 in the last 4 games decided by a touchdown or less, fine. Should we have beat teams by fewer points to pump our record in close games?

Before the streak you mentioned, we won four in a row that were decided by a touchdown or less. One of those was against Michigan State. I seem to remember it being a big deal at the time. But apparently Kirk Ferentz doesn't know how to win the close ones or manage the end of games so he must have been getting orders via Blackberry from Urban Meyer or something.

Should have said 0-4 in games decide by 7 or less. Other than that not really sure what your point is. Yes MSU win was a big deal. We did win 4 games in a row under TD. All against teams that finished under .500 (including MsU) or were FCS.

 

[Kohawkeye]

As I posted earlier, of all the teams (a total of 27) that have made a BCS bowl in the last 5 years, Iowa is dead last in games decided by 8 points or less at 11-15.

So yes, we have certainly been in most games. Unfortunately, we are losing them at a clip that is worse than any successful major BCS team. To jump to the "next level" that just can not happen.

I think 2 things contribute to that:

1. Clock management at the end of half and end of games. There are points there for the taking that the staff has not taken advantage of.

2. "Bend but don't break" at all times. I love this defense. However, to get to the elite level, we HAVE to be willing to take chances on defense and make the quarterback as uncomfortable as possible. Contrast our defensive philosophy, at home, with a 6 point lead against Arizona's philosophy, at home, with a 7 point lead. I know we have been more successful than Arizona over time. However, I use that to prove a point that sometimes, you just have to bring it and not sit back and let the opposition bring it to you.

3. Special Teams - Field goals and extra points must Always be converted. Kickoff coverage should be better (it has been pretty good the past couple games). Punt return team has been awful this year. If we are simply going to fair catch every punt how about trying to block it instead? That will also help discourage the 30 yard run right up the middle because only 2 guys are looking at the punter.

 

[Rawkhawk73]

Um, what? Iowa is 0 for everything in their last losses. That's what a loss is.

If you're saying they're 0-4 in the last 4 games decided by a touchdown or less, fine. Should we have beat teams by fewer points to pump our record in close games?

Before the streak you mentioned, we won four in a row that were decided by a touchdown or less. One of those was against Michigan State. I seem to remember it being a big deal at the time. But apparently Kirk Ferentz doesn't know how to win the close ones or manage the end of games so he must have been getting orders via Blackberry from Urban Meyer or something.

Olive,

I admire your enthusiasm, but it's hard to justify having the worst record of all BCS bowl teams over the last 5 years in games decided by 8 points or less. One year can be considered an aberation when compared to the same data over a 5 year period.

We certainly have the players and personnel to keep every game competitive. The question is, what are we willing to change in order to pull the close games out on a more regular basis? Is Kirk willing to pressure the quarterback more in late game situations? Is he willing to take a few more chances at the end of a half? I'm sorry, but you can't out execute every team down the stretch. But you can do things to make it more difficult for them so you're not depending so much on playing the "perfect" game.

 

[racerhawk]

I have one to add:

The last time we scored 30 points and lost?

2002 vs. ISU

Great post.

Incidentally, that was the "other" worst loss that I can think of in the past decade or so. Both hurt...a lot.

 

[DJL]

this. Wisconsin was walking one safety into the box the whole first half and we had single coverage on DJK and McNutt.

we have a very good staff but adjusting on the fly has never been a strength.

I agree. Another example on the defensive side of the ball is that we had rarely stopped Wisconsin all day. So with the game on the line, we stick to the same game plan and hope it works? Not surprised it didn't. I love KF, but I just feel like we were so close to taking the next step this year, and we just haven't been able to make the necessary adjustments to get us over the hump. I worry that we may be missing our best opportunity in a while. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Dexter]

Olive,

I admire your enthusiasm, but it's hard to justify having the worst record of all BCS bowl teams over the last 5 years in games decided by 8 points or less. QUOTE]


Think about what you're saying here.

Maybe you should compare stats of the other approximately 100 teams who didn't make a BCS game.

Seriously, what is wrong with some of you people this week? EXTREME UP.......DOWN.......UP.......DOWN.

 

[Maroons19]

I don't think being utterly disgusted with the way we lost this week and being happy with what we have accomplished and 9 win seasons are mutually exclusive feelings. If we go 9-3 I would be relatively happy with that season, but at the same time ****** we didn't go 11-1 given the way we've lost 2 of these games. It's perfectly okay to discuss and complain about the way we lost and still love the staff and the program. I imagine the staff is the same way. You think we are up and down? My guess is the staff goes into every game thinking they are going to win, and when the game is over they don't sit in the coaches' offices saying, "we're just Iowa, we had no business even being in this game, look at what we've accomplished over the years...." My guess is they are so freaking irate they want to punch a hole in the wall.

When someone complains about the way we lost this game, or the traditional way we seem to lose games (which as the stats show are usually in heart wrenching fashion), they are not at the same time completely poo pooing all the good things the program has achieved.

 

[StatelineHawk]

I don't think being utterly disgusted with the way we lost this week and being happy with what we have accomplished and 9 win seasons are mutually exclusive feelings. If we go 9-3 I would be relatively happy with that season, but at the same time ****** we didn't go 11-1 given the way we've lost 2 of these games. It's perfectly okay to discuss and complain about the way we lost and still love the staff and the program. I imagine the staff is the same way. You think we are up and down? My guess is the staff goes into every game thinking they are going to win, and when the game is over they don't sit in the coaches' offices saying, "we're just Iowa, we had no business even being in this game, look at what we've accomplished over the years...." My guess is they are so freaking irate they want to punch a hole in the wall.

When someone complains about the way we lost this game, or the traditional way we seem to lose games (which as the stats show are usually in heart wrenching fashion), they are not at the same time completely poo pooing all the good things the program has achieved.

Good post Maroons. I think you put how I feel. I made no predictions on season because I wanted to go 12-0, but realistically did not feel we would. Thought I could accept 9-3. Iowa had 6 players drafted off last years team and at least 3 otheres invited to tryouts. Tough players to replace. Its the way Iowa has lost games that make it hard on all fans. I was 20 before I witnessed a wining season. This is a good problem.

 

[Rawkhawk73]

Olive,

I admire your enthusiasm, but it's hard to justify having the worst record of all BCS bowl teams over the last 5 years in games decided by 8 points or less. QUOTE]


Think about what you're saying here.

Maybe you should compare stats of the other approximately 100 teams who didn't make a BCS game.

Seriously, what is wrong with some of you people this week? EXTREME UP.......DOWN.......UP.......DOWN.

Think about what I'm saying? How about thinking about what YOU'RE saying. You want to compare records with teams that aren't even in our league, success-wise? What kind of sense does that make?

I'm comparing Iowa's record in close ball games with other teams that have the same sort of track record of success as we have. I think it's fairly informative to know how we've done in close ball games and compare and contrast that with other successful teams.

If you want to compare it to freaking scrubs like Iowa State to make yourself feel better, by all means, be my guest. I, on the other hand, prefer to compare Iowa to other elite teams and see where there may be some room for improvement.

Guys like you amaze me. Any time there may be some questioning by others about recurring issues in the program, you get yourself so worked up thinking that people are calling for coaches heads, etc that you refuse to step back and see the forest through the trees. There is absolutely nothing wrong with questioning why, out of 27 teams that have made BCS bowls in the last 5 years, Iowa has, by far, the worst record of those 27 teams in close ball games. Think about that for just a minute. If, instead of going 11-16 in those games, we went 16-11. How many more BCS bowls would that mean in that time frame? Could there be a possible National Championship game we could have made? It's quite possible. At the end of the day, the only thing stopping us from going from "really good" to "elite" is our performance in close ball games. We get that figured out and the sky's the limit.

 

[Maroons19]

Two areas of the program that I think struggle year in and year out are our 2 minute offense and our 2 minute defense. Even in years when our defense has been dominate when opponents got into hurry up mode the defense struggled.

But stats are always deceiving. In the close games we lost over the past few years, I would want to know how many we were winning with under 8 minutes to play. And I would also want to know how many times we had the ball up something like 4 in the 4th quarter with a chance to end it with a scoring drive, but went conservative, punted, and ended up losing.

O'Keefe has been money this year (and that is very hard for me to say), but it just seems to me we have had many situations like Saturday where we have the ball midway through the 4th, up less than a touchdown, but don't drive home the dagger game winning drive b/c we would rather put the game on the defense. You do this enough and eventually you will lose.

 

[Rawkhawk73]

Two areas of the program that I think struggle year in and year out are our 2 minute offense and our 2 minute defense. Even in years when our defense has been dominate when opponents got into hurry up mode the defense struggled.

But stats are always deceiving. In the close games we lost over the past few years, I would want to know how many we were winning with under 8 minutes to play. And I would also want to know how many times we had the ball up something like 4 in the 4th quarter with a chance to end it with a scoring drive, but went conservative, punted, and ended up losing.

O'Keefe has been money this year (and that is very hard for me to say), but it just seems to me we have had many situations like Saturday where we have the ball midway through the 4th, up less than a touchdown, but don't drive home the dagger game winning drive b/c we would rather put the game on the defense. You do this enough and eventually you will lose.

Very well said. In fact, if I had to sum up our struggles in close games with one word, it would be aggressiveness. I really feel like in close ball games, we are not the aggressor in the 4th quarter, either offensively or defensively. Both Arizona and Wisconsin were the aggressor and look what happened.