Just because a team may lack experience doesn't mean they won't be good. KF usually plays upperclassmen but this year is forced to play the young guys and it could pan out. I'm not expecting a great D but I'm also not expecting NW D type of year. Nothing we can do about it except sit back and play couch coach all year.
I just want to get this post out of the way now
- Thread starter JonDMiller
- Start date
OUTofTOWNHAWK
Well-Known Member
Losing to Minny.
JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Iowa's DL recruiting has been on the uptick the last two classes.
While I agree that the 2012 defense won't be the saltiest one KF has put out yet, there is no way it will be as bad as the 2000 version. It is outrageous to even suggest (even if it's simply to provide cover for GD's rear end) this.
Just look at the personnel (talent/size/speed) and it's obvious. The secondary in 2000 featured starters like Tim Dodge, Shane Hall, Ryan Hansen, Mikkel Brown. LBs were Barr, Steen, Woods but in 2000 only Woods was any good. On the D-line we had a big body in Pickens at DT and the So version of Kampman at DE (?). Not sure who else.
In 2012 we could play any combination of 4 sub-200lb guys in the secondary and be 5 times better. At LB, we are deep and decent with Kirksey, Morris, Hitchens, Morris, Dibona...all quality players. On the DL, we are likely going to line-up Carl Davis (6'5"300lb), and Cooper (6'2"280lb) at DT; McMinn (6'7"250lb), and Alvis (270lb) at DE. Backups will include Spears, Trinca-pasat, Hardy, Tsiponades. A couple of the back-ups (Spears and Trinca) have been mentioned in the past to be excellent in practice.
We should be solid (let's say 4-6th best in B10) on D in 2012. That said I am all for sand-bagging for the next 6 months if it means opponents will come in overconfident and expecting to score like they are playing against Fran's team.
Just look at the personnel (talent/size/speed) and it's obvious. The secondary in 2000 featured starters like Tim Dodge, Shane Hall, Ryan Hansen, Mikkel Brown. LBs were Barr, Steen, Woods but in 2000 only Woods was any good. On the D-line we had a big body in Pickens at DT and the So version of Kampman at DE (?). Not sure who else.
In 2012 we could play any combination of 4 sub-200lb guys in the secondary and be 5 times better. At LB, we are deep and decent with Kirksey, Morris, Hitchens, Morris, Dibona...all quality players. On the DL, we are likely going to line-up Carl Davis (6'5"300lb), and Cooper (6'2"280lb) at DT; McMinn (6'7"250lb), and Alvis (270lb) at DE. Backups will include Spears, Trinca-pasat, Hardy, Tsiponades. A couple of the back-ups (Spears and Trinca) have been mentioned in the past to be excellent in practice.
We should be solid (let's say 4-6th best in B10) on D in 2012. That said I am all for sand-bagging for the next 6 months if it means opponents will come in overconfident and expecting to score like they are playing against Fran's team.
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JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I never said it will be as bad as 2000; I don't think Iowa returns to that. But I do think it will approach some of those marks from that year and be the worst Iowa defense since 2000.
I am not worried about the secondary, or even the linebackers. I am worried about Iowa's ability to stop the run. I just don't see it being as good as 2011, which was the 'worst' year for Iowa since 2000. Prior to last year, 133/gm in 2006 was the low since 2000. Next year's DL is going to be far more challenged than the 2011 group was, which was an 11 year low mark against the run. If next year's run D is in the range of 175/ypg allowed, I would not be surprised at all. Iowa went from 101 in 2010 to 156 in 2011, remember.
HawkForce
Well-Known Member
I agree with Jon...everything I have heard indicated that it was a mutual decision for Kaz to look to other places for a DL job. He was a BIG reason in my mind that we had such a hard time keeping DL in school here...
That said...12-0 all the way...until we lose that first game NOBODY get in the way of my fantasy with some of that rational talk stuff.
That said...12-0 all the way...until we lose that first game NOBODY get in the way of my fantasy with some of that rational talk stuff.
Agree with Jon I see some big rushing numbers against this group next year. It's not hard to picture it after enduring 2011 vs Nebby or PSU. Iowa needs these guys to understand how to consume a block then make a play while cutting their teeth and there will be some struggles. Schedule may help build early confidence.
Ok, we agree that lbs and secondary are not a concern. But why the doom and gloom (in comparison to 2011) for the DL?
We lost Clayborn, Ballard, and Klug from 2010 to 2011 and replaced them with undernourished babies. Hence the drop off in run D. But that isn't indicative of a trend.
We only lost Binns (who did little in 2011) this time. These guys won't get worse than last year. If I were to prognosticate based on your numbers, the 2012 D should hold opponents to 135-ish next year.
jmho of course.
PJHawk
Well-Known Member
By mid-season none of those players listed were in the lineup except for Ryan Hanson. Matt Stockdale took over for Tim Dodge, Benny Sapp had taken Brown's spot at CB and Bob Sanders knocked Shane Hall out of the lineup. As far as the line I'll take Kampman, Pickens, Anthony Herron and Jerry Montgomery and Colin Cole off the bench over that two deep that came out today that included five freshman. The LB's were RJ Meyer (Steen was a backup with little to no playing time) Fred Barr, and Woods with Mike Dolezal being in the rotation as well, that group is just as good the 2012 LB'ers.
Miller is right - It is not outrageous at all to think this years defense will be just as bad as the 2000 version.
turfpest
Well-Known Member
I hope 1 or 2 defensive lineman emerge next year. I think the talent is there, its just going to be up to the individuals to do it. I just hope we get to 6 or 7 wins next year, but no more losing to Minnesota or Northwestern or Iowa State. But then again the last 2 years has shown nothing is ever guaranteed. Hawks will be okay, I see things going in the right direction.
It is very hard to build a house when one person on the crew is tearing it down.
Seems to be a fine line, building up, while being a p r i c k. That is a fact.
A little to soft and you don't get results, push to hard and you get counter productive results.
Thats life and you have to find the right balance. One thing I remember them going over and over in class, was that fine line/balance and that you have to understand everyone is different and will respond differently. A good coach or leader understands all this very well and finds balance and what motivates the people he is leading.
I have never met RM, but from what KF has said, he has these skills. Those kind of skills have helped mankind to do remarkable things.
SO while tempered, I have not lost faith just yet.
AFAcademyHawk
Well-Known Member
Daniels outplayed Ballard and Binns in 2010 and, once healthy, was our best D-lineman last year as well. Nardo emerged as a capable DT last year, but now he's gone as well.
LeBron Daniel really won't be missed at all. Senior or not, I don't think I ever saw the guy make a play.
IIRC, in 2005 we started two sophomores (Mattison and Iwebema) and two freshmen (King and Kroul), and by the end of the season they were playing pretty well. I think guys like Cooper and McMinn have a chance to make a big impact by the end of this season.
ColoradoHAWKEYE
Well-Known Member
I agree with your thinking here as well. Also, you forgot Bigach. We have the personnel, it is just who can step it up big time from them. The attrition hurt more from the defections than anything, especially on D-line. This has been addressed and this will resolve itself with the new staff.
The doom and gloom would seem a lot less if we had a seasoned returning RB and WR on the O side as well. Schedule is favorable for this type of rebuilding. There will be some curve balls and youth based mistakes, but hopefully those too are minimized with the experience of progressing through the season. That goes for the coaches as well. I still will wait to hear how Spring ball goes before getting so under/over confident.
Daniels and Nardo played well,but they were hurt for much of the season. Nardo went down in the ISU game,and was never healthy until Purdue.
Daniels got hurt in the NW game and was gimpy until the bowl game.
Binns played the most consistent. Alvis was coming on strong,then tore his ACL.
As always, Iowa will be paper thin this year,and if we get injuries,we will be in the same or worse dilemma as last year.
But,just maybe we stay healthier,and in that case we could be good enough to hold the fort...the back seven will be better,barring injury.
I like our schedule and think we could win as many as 8-9.
Losses:
Neb,Mich,MSU.
Possible losses:
ISU,PU,PSU
Wins: the rest.
Other teams lose players every single year also,ya know?
NW loses 9 of 11 off of the worst defense in the league,and Persa,Ebert,Dunsmore,their rb,and most of their o=line.
Way too early to get this kind of attitude. Another Mitch king might be lurking in the two deeps....lets see how spring ball and fall practice go before we give up,ok?
Montanahawk
Well-Known Member
Of course the DL will likely be unusually weak. Too inexperienced, not nearly enough physical development, but my hope is that the linebacking corp will be better. We lose Nielsen, but he was injured and out of position part of the year. Finally Morris and Kirksey should have the physical size and strength to play up to their football IQ's and athleticism. Anthony Hitchens has played well in relief, and I don't expect much if any drop off in his play from Nielsen's. The one advantage the young DL will have over last year's is superior depth. We add true freshman and redshirt freshman that should be able to contribute. The depth last year on the DL was nearly non-existant, and I believe Ferentz rolled the dice choosing to redshirt some DL that could have played(eg. Cooper) to give them practice time and greater physical development. Another issue from last year is we lost Alvis who'd finally seemed to find his position, and Daniels was hobbled with a nagging injury much of the season. Not expecting much from the DL, but wouldn't be surprised if the young talent well-enough that there isn't a significant drop off from last year, and an improved LB corp was enough to make up any difference.
My expectations for the defense is that 2012 is very similar to the 2011 season's. Decidedly sub-par but not atrocious.
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Isn't this one of the times where Mr Doyle can be of assistance? He's gonna have about 8 months to make alot of D line mass, right???
I don't disagree with Jon on his analysis, but sometimes things you don't expect to happen, happen. Remember our offense in 2004? Something crazy like that might happen on D, and bingo, you own a Big 10 championship trophy.
I don't disagree with Jon on his analysis, but sometimes things you don't expect to happen, happen. Remember our offense in 2004? Something crazy like that might happen on D, and bingo, you own a Big 10 championship trophy.
Do you really want a Mitch King to develop? Or do you want this group to hold down the fort until the freshmen are built up physically? Also, do you want to play true freshmen?
Remember 2005? Kanellis and Bain were coming in as 4 star TF. King was the little engine that kinda could who had a year up on the pups. Both Bain and Kanellis played, but both were not nearly ready. Kanellis gets his head kicked in and has to quit football, Bain realizes he is never going to be able to pass a guy who has a year of development and the same eligibility and leaves.
Iowa needs to NOT play this like 2005! They need to work Cooper into the system while cooling the heals of the TF. Reese has to be able to keep these guys happy and motivated to grow. They just really need to be able to sell the future. However, they also need to be open to the idea that certain players might just be place holders this year.
Remember 2005? Kanellis and Bain were coming in as 4 star TF. King was the little engine that kinda could who had a year up on the pups. Both Bain and Kanellis played, but both were not nearly ready. Kanellis gets his head kicked in and has to quit football, Bain realizes he is never going to be able to pass a guy who has a year of development and the same eligibility and leaves.
Iowa needs to NOT play this like 2005! They need to work Cooper into the system while cooling the heals of the TF. Reese has to be able to keep these guys happy and motivated to grow. They just really need to be able to sell the future. However, they also need to be open to the idea that certain players might just be place holders this year.
SirJamaLot
Well-Known Member
Fans need to remember that Ferentz' teams usually overachieve when no one expects anything and usually underachieve when there are huge expectations.
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