Hawk Stock: What Should Our Annual Expectations Be?

Dont forget, the B1G will be moving to 9 conference games in 2017, which means you will usually have 7 home games. In the year you have 5 B1G road games is the year you get ISU at home.

Michigan and Wisconsin had 8 home games this year which factored heavily in them gettting to 9 wins. OSU and MSU had 8 home games in 2010.These teamms will not have that luxury in 2017. I don't think Iowa has EVER had 8 home games, and looking at the future schedules, they won't any time soon.

We play "virtually" 8 home games next year. Including 6* of the first 7.

2012 Iowa Hawkeyes Football Schedule

* I'm counting the Nuetral Site versus Northern Illinois, was at the 2006 game.... and there was a for real SWARM of Hawks on gameday. I can remember Hawk Fans overrunning a gas station on a main route to the stadium, and what appeared to be a local staring wide-eyed at the masses walk beer in hand to Soldier Field. There was nothing quite like starting a season off with a bowl-like game like that. It was a treat to say the least!
 
Over a 10 year period, Iowa should be getting be no less than 9 wins for at least 7 seasons. That is based on the expected performance of an elite coaching staff.
 
My expectations are to beat teams that have serious issues. Pencil in 2 wins for our LA-Tech's and Tenn Tech's and another win for big east/lesser major schools. Fine, that's 3 wins. We shouldn't ever lose to Minnesota or Indiana... EVER(unless they somehow stabilize their programs). These are teams that consistently change coaches, don't have as much talent, and are just fundamentally flawed. I've come to expect Iowa to exploit another team's weaknesses. Penn State didn't have an offense this year, Nebraska can't throw the ball with consistency, MSU is overrated (not this year so much), Michigan can be contained if you stop Robinson. I'm not saying we should go 4-0 against those teams, but at least make it competitive.

Now it seems like we're the ones with a weakness. We can't stop teams on 3rd down, we can't protect our qb if there's a blitz, we led the B1G in dropped passes, we can't stop a fake punt, we bite on PA's and blow some coverages on stupid stuff. It's frustrating beyond belief.

I don't think anybody expects a 12-0 season and trip to the Rose Bowl every year, just don't shoot yourself in the foot so often. How many losses did we have this year that were based on our own shortcomings/mistakes and not because of the opposition doing something well? How many easy points did we leave off the board?

(I used we, I realize I'm not on the team)
 
I've been silently viewing these message boards for years and enjoy getting my Hawkeye information from them. The last couple of years I think the tone of the posters has turned a little too negative in my opinion.

I think last year's performance is a valid reason to feel a little down about the direction of the program, however why do we forget how the year before that we overachieved to win the Orange Bowl.

I agree that the team hasn't looked the same since last year’s Wisconsin game, however from my novice eyes the one common denominator between this year's and last year's defense is poor linebacker play. Some of that is related to losing Angerer in the middle and injuries, but how much of the lack of development the current linebackiers is due to Norm losing practice time with these guys?

I'm not trying to pile on Norm here, but is it just a
coincidence that the weels fell off of the defense last year when Norm was out for so long?
 
You are right. I did miss that. And I think that, as a minimum expectation level, is waaaay to optimistic. EVERY year?

The expectation should definitely be 4-0 in the OOC and 4-4 at least in the B1G. There will be years we don't meet expectations but that doesn't mean we should expect to keep playing below the level of the program.
 
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John, I just wanted to point out one error in your post. Iowa has only had 5 9+ win seasons under Ferentz: 2002 (11-2), 2003 (10-3) 2004 (10-2), 2008 (9-4) and 2009 (11-2). Iowa has also only finished a season ranked 5 times under Ferentz. 5 times in 13 years???? Come on?
 
Some more food for thought:
1) Kirk is the 5th highest paid coach in college football at $3.785M
2) Only 4 10 win seasons on record
3) of the 10 highest paid coaches, 5 have won National championships; 2 are in their first seasons, and the other 3 are Petrino, Ferentz, and Mark Richt
4) Of the top 10 highest paid coaches, since 2001 only 4 have 10+ years of tenure: Mack Brown (14), Boob Stoops (13), KF (13), and Richt (12). But of those 4, all but Kirk have had 6+ 10 win seasons and have finished ranked in the top 25 in over 80% of their seasons. Kirk has finished ranked under 50% of his seasons.

Just interesting facts.
 
Some more food for thought:
1) Kirk is the 5th highest paid coach in college football at $3.785M

Not sure where you are getting your facts, but I believe he is 6th now since Meyer got hired at Ohio State, unless my source isn't correct with latest updates.

#5 Miles, $3.751M
#4 Meyer, $4M
#3 Stoops, $4.075M
#2 Saban, $4.683M
#1 Brown, $5.1295M

Basic principle behind your point still stands, regardless.
 
Iowa has been averaging 7.8 wins. An average of 8 wins is a reasonable expectation. I think Ferentz and staff are doing fine. Do I get frustrated at taking a knee before every half? Yes. Do I get frustrated when he punts from the opposing team's 37 yard line? Yes. But at the end of the day the guy has been successful over the long term. The kids this year fought hard and I am sure they are great student athletes that make all their parents proud. But I honestly have to say that this group just didn't compete well. Giving up four straight TDs to your in state rival??? That is unheard of. KF can't tackle for these kids. I know everyone likes to attack the guy making $3mm/year but a big part of the issue is the kids making plays at crunch time. Let's hope next years group is better at this.
 
Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska.....

You trying to tell me that we should have the same expectations Nebraska has? You have got to be joking right?

Nebraska does not have down swings like Iowa did in the 70's or late 90s they have been solid since the early 60s and have won 4 national championships along the way and competed for many more. You are making me vomit even having to look this crap up. If Iowa could get themselves up to that level then, yes, we should have higher expectations just like their fan base does. But Nebraska is a brand at a national level, Iowa is not. Nor do they compete for instate kids with another BCS school. While population wise they may be smaller than Iowa the state still consistently produces pretty good football players. In Iowa kids from Des Moines decide between Iowa and ISU, kids from Lincoln or Omaha dream nothing but playing for Big Red. They are recruiting, and getting, 4 and 5 star athletes from all over on a consistent basis Iowa does not.
 
Delany split the divisions with OSU and PSU in the Leaders and Mich and Neb in the Legends for a reason...they are 4 of the top 6 winningest football programs in history. Neb is 5th,I believe. Iowa is maybe 35th. So yea,tradition matters a lot in college football and Nebraska has at least 5 times the Iowa tradition.

And citing how Iowa should never lose to NW or ISU is sickening. Sure Hayden beat NW and ISU and Wisky every year....well, times change and NW is going to their 5th straight bowl this year,and Wisky is in the Rose bowl 4 times since Hayden left,and ISU is going bowling for the 2nd time in 3 years....so those who are living in the past can forget calling those games ''gimmmees'' anymore. Not realistic.
Hayden had a much easier Big Ten to operate in...it was the Big Two,and Iowa.
Now,it is the Big 4 and Wisky,MSU,and NW. That is 7 teams Iowa has to hurdle to win the Big Ten....and with this divisonal setup it gets even harder..no tiebreakers that Hayden took advantage of to get to the Rose Bowl.

And this business of dismissing bowl wins as meaningless when assessing a team meeting expectations....nuts. I suspect it is because KF is 6-3 in bowl games and his detractors want to ignore that. Well, as someone who goes to Iowa bowl games,I can tell you those wins are damn sure great wins,and they pay huge dividends to fans morale(who spend big money to go on those trips) and program esteem. When the rest of the Big Ten was losing in bowls,who was almost always the exception? Iowa....and it got talked about a lot at BTN.
KF and Iowa has established a winning reputation at bowls,and that is a valuable asset to the program.

As far as that 12th game being a gimmee...no,not really. Hayden in his later years used to have two cupcakes and ISU. Now,we have ISU ,a Pitt or Az or ASU,and two cupcakes...same gimmee wins,but one additonal tough non-conference game.
Now, next year, that is not true,so I concede that next year we should go 4-0.

My expectations depend on a lot of factors that change depending on returning players,schedule,and injuries. I was not happy with last years results,but I knew that we lost our top 5 linebackers and that cost the team bigtime,along with losing McMillan and Gettis at o-guard. Iowa is just not OSU in depth,and so my expectations are adjusted.

Going into this season,I hoped for 10-2 with losses at PSU and Neb. Well, MSU turned out to be better than I thought...legit team this year. And the losses to ISU and Minny were not good,but 3OT and two missed fgs chip shots in a 2 pt loss at Minny?
Stuff happens. We easily could have won those games and fans would be happy?

I look at the whole program,and I see our 83% grad rate, 9th of all the 70 bowl teams, 3rd best public university, and I look at our recruiting which is solid again,and our continued NFL draftees,and lack of recruiting or NCAA scandals and I think my expectations have been met. Iowa was 5-1 at home with a lone loss to the Legends division winner. Home games were fun. WE beat 4 bowl bound teams. We are playing the preseason #1 rated Sooners in a bowl. I aint losing one minute of sleep over the Iowa football program....unlike our bb program.
And the whole KF salary nonsense....he is making that much because he is not at Texas or Georgia or Florida or LSU,where top 150 recruits flock in,right from the local high schools. Iowa has not produced a single top 150 football recruit in decades.
Anybody can coach at those schools,it takes a true genius to win where there are no local recruits of that ilk.

Maybe I am like our parents who lived thru the depression,and always had that fear of those hard times coming back. I lived thru the 19 years,and I know they can come back. Neb fired Frank Solich who won 9 games a year,and Callahan came in and they truly sucked. Now,they are happy to win 9 games again with Pelini. Maybe Iowa has to go thru hard times to appreciate 8 wins again.
 
Great article/post JHHawk!

One minor correction, Iowa has produced a couple of top 150 players (Arrington was top 100 I think) but there has not been many.
 
Going into this season,I hoped for 10-2 with losses at PSU and Neb. Well, MSU turned out to be better than I thought...legit team this year. And the losses to ISU and Minny were not good,but 3OT and two missed fgs chip shots in a 2 pt loss at Minny?
Stuff happens. We easily could have won those games and fans would be happy?

I don't think there would have been a lot of 'happiness' resulting from a 27-22 win over Minnesota. I will acknowledge that if we make those kicks that the momentum and time/score situations might have then turned it more into a 30-14 game. It is a very fine line.

Nonetheless, Iowa still has more totally flat games against virtual patsies than most other teams. All I want is for the team to look like they are aware that they only get to suit up in the black and gold for a game about 50 times in their entire lives. I wonder if the program has taken Kirk's 'business Sunday-Friday' approach to such an extreme that gameday just feels like another day at the office. It strikes me that way when Kirk, after an epic loss, just says, "well, we're gonna work on some things."

There's NO urgency. 7-5 isn't bad, but I feel like we had 9-3 talent.
 
But the thing is after Iowa lost to Minnesota there was a sense of urgency to beat Michigan. Had they won at Minnesota it is hard to say Iowa would have still beaten Michigan. They went into that Michigan game desperately needing that 6th win to be bowl eligible. Iowa is a 7-5 team no matter how you look at it.
 
Alternatively, we could just enjoy the ride and stop pretending that we're the athletic director. Maybe that makes me a bad fan, I don't know. I do know that my particular "expectations" don't affect the program in any way and don't make me enjoy the season any more. If anything, they make me enjoy it less. Gary Barta makes good money to figure this stuff out; I'm happy to let him do so.

+1000000
 
For one thing I would like to see Iowa simply win the games they're supposed to win. And they need to do it consistently. Don't treat the non-conference games as NFL preseason games. ISU & Minny games should be nothing short of a gimme for Iowa.
 
Iowa has deep pockets due to the alumni and fans who donate. Iowa is one of the top money schools in all of college football. You can't have the attitude that Iowa could be the 70s again with the resources that Iowa has. If Iowa makes all decisions based on being worried about if we could revert back to the 70s then Iowa will always be average.

If KF is happy with 7 wins on average then it is time for a change. Iowa can be a top 15 program and should be.
 
We've forumulated this 7 win threshold or 6 with threshold amid a history that includes 11 games.

7 wins out of 13 games isn't much to write home about.

As far as I am concerned Iowa should at a minumum be .500 in conference play (see caveat below). And beat ISU EVERY YEAR and always beat the other lesser conference foes. If Iowa is playing AZ or ASU for example- the expectations should varry I suppose.

8 wins is my threshold for happiness - I'll add that a 4-4 conference record with only wins against poor teams clearly shows a poor / weak team.
 

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