Hawk Stock: What Should Our Annual Expectations Be?

[MissouriHerk]

8.5 wins per year avg. (including bowl game), and at least one Rose appearance every 10 years. This means you are only winning half of conference games every other year, and 5-3 every other. 6-6 is not a bare minimum, when you play 3 warm-ups, it's a losing program. You also must win the conference once every ten, outright, to ensure the Rose. That's not a high expectation in a conference of 12 teams.

 

[nationalchamps]

I think 8 wins minimum in the regular season should be the expectation. Like one of the posters said above, I think once every 6 years or so you could see 6 or 7 wins in a "rebuilding" year and once every 5 or 6 years contend for the BigTen title. It's now year 8 since we've won a share of the BigTen and that's unacceptable.

 

[Travisam]

Jon, I think there are a few things that can not be overlooked when determining expectations.

Schedule, facilities, and money being the 3 biggest IMO. With a schedule like Iowa had this year 8 wins was a no brainer in what should have been expected. Our facilities rival most of the big boys in the game, and the $$ Iowa spends on coaches is among tops in the country. Those are huge factors in a successful program. Iowa should be able to consistently beat up on schools that do not offer those things such as ISU, NW, Indiana etc. They are currently not doing that. My biggest problem is that Kirk and co. seem to not only be becoming more and more conservative, but almost doing it out of pure stubbornness. I think he holds a severe disdain for media/fans questioning him and it is showing in his gameday coaching and not in a positive way. If Iowa fans don't think we could get a top tier coach with Iowa's history and $$ they are severely mistaken. Ultimately that needs to be the question when determining the success of Kirk and co. Could Iowa do better?

 

[Clark]

I think 8 wins minimum in the regular season should be the expectation. Like one of the posters said above, I think once every 6 years or so you could see 6 or 7 wins in a "rebuilding" year and once every 5 or 6 years contend for the BigTen title. It's now year 8 since we've won a share of the BigTen and that's unacceptable.

Iowa contended for a Big 10 title in 2009.

 

[Bigtenchamp]

The problem is that things are trending downward - the early 2000's were the best time in Iowa football history - I'll admit that, but the last 7 years outside of 2009 have for the most part not been very quality.

The reality in trend is that the program is regressing. Now that could change and Ferentz has built up alot of currency to do so, but the results on the football field need to improve.

With the cupcakes schools schedule for non conference 7 wins isn't really much to be satisfied with.

 

[H8IAST8]

Dont forget, the B1G will be moving to 9 conference games in 2017, which means you will usually have 7 home games. In the year you have 5 B1G road games is the year you get ISU at home.

Michigan and Wisconsin had 8 home games this year which factored heavily in them gettting to 9 wins. OSU and MSU had 8 home games in 2010.These teamms will not have that luxury in 2017. I don't think Iowa has EVER had 8 home games, and looking at the future schedules, they won't any time soon.

 

[TritonHawkeye]

I view a successful season not if Iowa achieves a bowl bid or even if that bowl is won or lost. Let’s face it, bowls are pretty much a joke outside of the top 6-7 that are played, the remaining are all post season exhibitions that are meaningless outside of trying to determine rankings 15-25. A lot of people like to argue that a playoff system would make the regular season meaningless but yet turn a blind eye as to the arbitrary value of bowl games. How does the win or loss of a single game 30+ days after a team’s final regular season game hold any value? Okay, I will digress and save this argument for another topic.

A season’s success needs to be based on tangibles, college football is a big business and power businesses are valued based on returns, so moral victories do not belong in this topic. I think the value of a college program needs to be weighed in cycles, I will use four years based on the fact that a typical player will have 4 years to impact the program from the first time they play to the last. The constant is that each team will play 12 games, 4 of which are against discretionary opponents and at least in Iowa’s case rarely against historic Top 20 programs. In a 4 year cycle I am going to say that you should win 13 of those 16 games, the reason as some may consider this benchmark high is based on the assumption Iowa doesn’t schedule the Oregon’s, Auburn's or Florida’s during the preseason and should win at a higher percentage than expected during conference play. Turning to the regular season I am unsure how a mark at or less than 4-4 can be considered a success, so 5-3 is what would be the minimum of a good season and something beyond deemed one that is successful. Based on that assumption I will consider a successful conference record as 6-2. Take that across 4 years and you have a record of 24-8, combine that with a preseason record of 13-3 and the total becomes 37-11 or a winning percentage of 77%.

To quantify that down to a single season, 77% of 12 games is 9.24. I am at 9 wins for a season to be considered successful anything less is average or below.

I am a supporter of Kirk Ferentz but in big business CEO’s don’t last long if their power business strives to be average.

 

[Not4cy]

The last seven years, barring this year's bowl game, Iowa has averaged 7.8 wins per year.

Jon, I love how you spin things like this. All you did was took an average # of wins over the last 7 years. In 5 out of the last 7 years, Iowa has won 7 or less football games in the regular season. 71.4% of the time over the last 7 years, Iowa has not met expectations. I agree with an earlier post. 8-4 seasons should be the expectation. Not 10-2 and then 6-6 and 7-5. Virtually any coach in America could come in and win 6-7 games per year at Iowa with the current 12 game scheduling format.

We play 2 pathetic teams in the Non-conference, ISU at home and like a PItt on the road. Or ISU on the road and Pitt at home. That should guarantee you at least 3-1 non-conference record. 4-0 could be very probable because losing to 6-6, 5-7, 4-8 ISU teams 7 out of 13 years is UNACCEPTABLE! Then we play an 0-8 Indiana team (Conference play) and a 2-6 Minnesota team. So there is an easy 5-6 wins every single year. We were favored in 8 games this year. If, for the most part, we beat the teams that we are supposed to beat and find a way to win 1 out of the 4 games that we were underdogs in (Michigan, MSU, Neb and PSU), we finish with 9 wins this season and that is a great year. But when we are 19-9 as double digit favorites since 2006 when everybody else in the Big 10 has only 4 losses as double digit favorites, that is Unfathomable. It shouldn't be that hard to beat 6-6 ISU teams or 3-9 Minnesota teams. If we beat both of those teams this year (Something dozens of coaches could do), we finish 9-3. I would have rather beat ISU and MN and lose to Michigan. An 8-4 season this year, beating all teams that we were favored to beat, would have been fine with me. I understand upsets happen. But we are losing 1 or 2 times per year as a double digit favorite. That is Unacceptable.

 

[H8IAST8]

Jon, I love how you spin things like this. All you did was took an average # of wins over the last 7 years. In 5 out of the last 7 years, I Iowa has won 7 or less football games in the regular season. 71.4% of the time over the last 7 years, Iowa has not met expectations. I agree with an earlier post. 8-4 seasons should be the expectation. Not 11-1 and then 6-6 and 7-5. Virtually any coach in America could come in and win 6-7 games per year at Iowa with the current 12 game scheduling format.

We play 2 pathetic teams in the Non-conference. ISU at home and like a PItt on the road. Or ISU on the road or Pitt at home. That should guarantee you at least 3-1 non-conference record. 4-0 should be very probably because losing to 6-6, 5-7, 4-8 ISU teams 7 out of 13 years is UNACCEPTABLE! Then we play an 0-8 Indiana team (Conference play) and a 2-6 Minnesota team. So that there is an easy 5-6 wins every single year. Even Jon Miller could coach Iowa to 6 wins per season. We were favored in 8 games this year. If, for the most part, we beat the teams that we are supposed to beat and find a way to win 1 out of the 4 games that we were underdogs in (Michigan, MSU, Neb and PSU), we finish with 9 wins this season and that is a great year. But when we are 19-9 as double digit favorites since 2006 when everybody else in the Big 10 has only 4 losses as double digit favorites, that is Unfathomable. It should be that hard to beat 6-6 ISU teams or 3-9 Minnesota teams. If we beat both of those teams this year (Something dozens of coaches could do), we finish 9-3. I would have rather beat ISU and MN and lose to Michigan. An 8-4 season this year, beating all teams that we were favored to beat, would have been fine with me. I understand upsets happen. But we are losing 1 or 2 times per year as a double digit favorite. That is Unacceptable.

Did you want him to go 10 years and include years where we won 11,10 and 10 games?

 

[Not4cy]

Did you want him to go 10 years and include years where we won 11,10 and 10 games?

NO. I want a year by year breakdown.

2005-7-5
2006- 6-7
2007- 6-6
2008-9-4
2009- 11-2
2010- 8-5
2011- 7-5

5 out of 7 years we lose at least 5 football games. I don't care that the average is 7.8 years over 7 years. I take a year by year breakdown and we didn't meet expectations 5 out of 7 years. The expectation should be an 8-4 regular season with the 5 cupcakes per year that we play.

 

[sdschroe]

I realize this isn't the discussion you are having, but I don't define expectations in terms of wins and losses.

I define it more in terms of whether Iowa football give me hope, excitement, and pride. I want to see the coaching staff run the program the right way, bring in the right players, and coach at a high level. I realize talent will ebb and flow. Some years talent will be high (like 2009 and 2010) and you want to see the team capitalize. Some years the talent will be lower (2011), and you want to see the team fight and the coaches put them in position to succeed.

I'm not bothered by the ebbs and flows, the breaks of the game. For example, in 2007 we had a lot of injuries, a dip in talent, and a bad qb. I could deal with that. In 2008, we got unlucky in our losses, with the fumbles being recovered by the opposition at an alarming rate. In 2010, when the pass went off McNutt's hands for a pick six, and the KO team coverage blew a return TD at Arizona, I could deal with that.

But things changed for me in the 2010 Wisconsin game. The coaches made two terrible errors in that game that were incompetent and embarrassing - the fake punt and the end of game clock management.

Since that game, Iowa is 10-9, with losses to horrific Minnesota teams, losses to mediocre NW and Iowa State teams with questionable coaches decisions/management, and losses to Penn State and Nebraska where the offense didn't do anything.

So the last 19 games, my expectations simply haven't been met, and that isn't measured in wins and losses. The game planning/management by the coaches has been very mediocre in that time, the play hasn't been inspired, and the program is not something to be proud of.

I think we all know that next years team will have the worst defense since 2000, perhaps 1999. They have 5-6 wins written all over them. It will be frustrating, but I can live with it, as talent is going to dip from time to time at Iowa. If next years team shows up inspired, game planning/management improves, I will be happy even if they only win 6 games.

 

[nationalchamps]

Iowa contended for a Big 10 title in 2009.

Contend, yes. Win, no.

 

[kuhntz]

The last seven years, barring this year's bowl game, Iowa has averaged 7.8 wins per year.

He was talking regular season Jon. Surprised you missed the all capitals REGULAR in his post.

At any rate, 8-4 is a very realistic expectation for a minimum number of wins, for an acceptable/average season...for a top 25 program. As has been pointed out, with the resources, history and scheduling...anything less is a joke.

 

[hawkIhoops]

IMO, it's less about some magic number of wins and more about the absolute steadfast reluctance to change anything. Purdue used to be the only conference team to run the spread, now virtually every team has some variation of it, except I O W A. Other teams give their two deeps meaningful reps in blowouts, except I O W A. Other teams demonstrate flexiblity with personnel packages and systems with respect to their talent, except, you guessed it, I O W A. Are Canizeri, Bullock, Johnson, McCall, Rodgers really so awful they can't get on the field? Are we really incapable of having a punt / kick returner who is not a starting DB?

I like and respect KF, but the dude has a responsibility to the University and yes, to us fans, to continue the development of the program in a positive direction. He has taken status quo to a new level and needs to make changes. If he doesn't, then IMO, he thinks he is bigger than the program.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

The last seven years, barring this year's bowl game, Iowa has averaged 7.8 wins per year.

First of all, that number is skewed by the high total in 2009. One big season doesn't necessarily make up for a bunch of mediocre ones IMO. I would prefer to see 5 good to very good seasons than one great season and 4 mediocre ones. But that's just me.

Second - my expection was 8 or more wins in the REGULAR SEASON.

If you take the regular season only, the average number of wins per season from 2005-2011 is only 7.28, and that includes the 10 wins in 2009.

2005 - 7
2006 - 6
2007 - 6
2008 - 8
2009 - 10
2010 - 7
2011 - 7

 

[nationalchamps]

First of all, that number is skewed by the high total in 2011. One big season doesn't make up for 5 mediocre ones IMO.

Second - my expection was 8+ wins in the REGULAR SEASON.

If you take the regular season only, the average number of wins per season from 2005-2011 is only 7.28, and that includes the 10 wins in 2009.

2005 - 7
2006 - 6
2007 - 6
2008 - 8
2009 - 10
2010 - 7
2011 - 7

Exactly. Take out the 10 win season and 6 out of the last 7 seasons we are only averaging 6.8 wins/year......totally unacepptable.

 

[Stiles]

Just keep in mind, and I think you pointed that out already, that 7.8 wins now is equivalent to 6.8 wins "back in the day" when comparing to Fry's era.

The advent of the 12-game schedule, which is the addition of a cupcake, is a freebie for the schedule.

Something to keep in mind when comparing the averages.

How many did Fry average in any 11 game schedule? Serious question.

Keep in mind the ISU, Wisky and NW were terrrible in the 80's too. However, I do agree winning % comparison are not fair between Fry and Ferentz, when Ferentz has one more cupcake on his schedule.

 

[ohhawk]

I heard you comment on this upcoming series on one of your radio shows last week. What I heard then and your commentary today seem reasonable and fair-minded at this point. I think "stale" is a good description word. I would suggest that to some degree any human is more prone to becoming stale in their approach to things when you have been doing much of the same thing for years and years. You also tend to become more set in your ways in many cases.

Some of us remember the days when it was looked upon favorably when you would say you have worked for the same corporation for many years. That has all been changing for a number of years now where corporations recognize that they need to continually be looking for employees / managers who can bring sound new ideas to the table if they want to keep or improve their position in the market. Coach F. sells the low turnover in his staff to recruits which I'm sure can be a positive thing in some recruit's minds but in other respects could be a contributor to a program that has become stale.

There's an old adage out there that seems applicable........if you put a frog into a pan of boiling water he will jump out of the pan immediately. However, if you put a frog into a pan of cool water and turn up the heat to a boiling level very slowly over a longer period of time that frog will stay in the pan to his death.

Sometimes it's difficult to recognize the need for change.

 

[Stiles]

Jon, what is your opinion and expectation on the number of wins? It is not clear in your article.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

I think the program is going the wrong direction. As a few people have pointed out, this was one of the most stale seasons I can remember. Probably since 2007 where at the end of the season I found it tough to watch the games. In fact I'd usually pay more attention when the Defense was on the field as they were more exciting to watch.

The past two years especially the coaching staff seems to have gotten more and more conservative. They were a little more open with the playbook in 2010 with Stanzi, but they really must not trust JVB in a two min offense, considering we always took a knee when it called for it.

I don't need to see coaches acting like cheerleaders, but I do want to see a team with emotion, a spark, and better game planning than what we saw this year.