Hawk Stock: What Should Our Annual Expectations Be?

Good article JD - A few of points:

1) While we didn't return a lot of starters, we weren't especially young. If you have a senior laden team, or more specifically senior laden units, you can't give that as a pass as not being experienced. An expectation should be that if you are a senior and starting, that you are not just one of the best players available, but that you deserve to be starting for a B1G football team.

2) In my opinion, the staff has used its diamond in the rough success as a crutch for poor recruiting efforts. Yes our biggest NFL success stories were not heralded recruits, but we can't rely on this as a recruiting philosophy, and I fear that we are.

3) Expectations are fluid. You can't say that you have bare bottom expectations because, well **** happens. But, there is no excuse to be finishing worse than 8-4 with any kind of regularity. If you look at the last 5 years of Iowa football, we've been 6-6,8-4,10-2,7-5,7-5. The trend seems to suggest that Al is correct, that we've scheduled ourselves to wins and that we are a 7 win program. That is nothing to be celebrated. We can do better, and there is nothing wrong with demanding that we do better.

4) A 9th or 10th win in a bowl game is not relevant towards the overall success of the year, nor is a 5th or 6th loss relevant towards the overall failure of a season. The bowl game is more important as a piece of momentum for the next year.

5) Most fans would argue, and I would argue they are right, that if we would just perform consistently across the season, we would be fine. If we had beaten Minnesota, we finish 8-4/5-3, and people would look at the season much differently. We need to start having a killer instinct in the B1G season that we simply refuse to want to have.
 
CAARHawk said:
You all know I have set the mark at 8 wins.

Of course that is somewhat complicated by change to a 13 game schedule. 8-4 IS pretty different from 8-5.

However, each falls in the 60s with respect to winning percentage, so it isn't that huge a shift.

8-5 either means winning 60% of your games with a decent end of the season bowl victory, or winning 2/3 of your games during the regular season and, for Iowa, losing a New Year's Day Bowl. Either way, the fans would react much differently than 7-6 or less.

This is why the 3 seven or less, 3 eight or more KF pattern is meaningful and why looking at a time frame that doesn't align with this pattern can be deceiving, either on the negative or positive side.
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I don't like counting the bowl game as part of the successful season.

Winning the bowl might give everyone more of a warm fuzzy feeling during the offseason, but it isn't going to change opinions that 7-5 with this schedule was disappointing.

It doesn't excuse losing to Minnesota, or other poor efforts with PSU or Neb.

People are saying, look, you can schedule at least 3 wins out of 4 non-conference games. There should be two gimmes at the bottom of the Big 10. That's 5 wins right there. 8 REGULAR SEASON wins isn't hard from there. It's 3-3 in evenly matched games or upsets, and that's assuming one loss in the non conference.

Go 4-0, or 6-0 with the two gimmies, that's 2-4 against the top 3/4 of the Big 10 to get to 8-4.

2-4 or 3-3 against the top 3/4 of the Big Ten really shouldn't be that tall of an order.
 
BSpringsteen said:
4) A 9th or 10th win in a bowl game is not relevant towards the overall success of the year, nor is a 5th or 6th loss relevant towards the overall failure of a season. The bowl game is more important as a piece of momentum for the next year.
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Nail on the head.

In preseason expectations, people are going off the games that are on the schedule at the time, not an imaginary bowl game.

People don't say, ok, I see 8 wins here, ah hell, lets throw in a loss against Indiana and just make it back up in the bowl game.

Plus, the bowl game might be a good match up, bad match up...it's purely massaging the numbers to try and pass off a bowl *win* to declare the REGULAR season a success.

Beating Oklahoma won't make me think that going 7-5 against the schedule of the first 12 games was any less disappointing. I'll feel better in the offseason somewhat, but still doesn't change losing to Minn..etc.
 
I am not keen on people 'quoting' other posters and then editing within the quotation. It gives the impression that its what someone else wrote, when its not. If you want to debate things, then debate them without doing that.
 
Jon, what is your opinion? Do you have a number for average number of regular season victories?
 
Just out of curiosity, Jon, what were your projected wins for each year going into the season since Ferentz has been coach? Do you have that history?
 
hogeye said:
Just out of curiosity, Jon, what were your projected wins for each year going into the season since Ferentz has been coach? Do you have that history?
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That's a great question. I would like to know that answer also. Jon almost always defends Ferentz for what he has been able to accomplish but I would be willing to bet that the final results of the season are below what Jon's predictions were on several of the seasons.
 
Stiles said:
Jon, what is your opinion? Do you have a number for average number of regular season victories?
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If you read the article, you'll see he's going to look into this further with other installments. He hasn't come up with a number yet. I'm sure if there's a number he'll come up with, it will be in a future article
 
I think maybe the best way to look at this, if we are conceding that the difference between 11-game seasons under Fry and 12 game seasons under Ferentz (extra cupcakes), is look at the average number of losses instead.

Excluding bowls, Fry was 137-82-5.

82 losses over 20 years is an average of 4.1 losses/yr. Thus, 7-4 was the avg Fry put up.

Again, we are granting the 12th game is basically a win that Iowa buys, (bringing in Tenn Tech AND La Monroe). Therefore, it think the average if you believe in Ferentz at least sustaining from Fry, should be 8-4.

Doesn't mean there won't be years above and below, but 8-4 should be established in my opinion, as simply SUSTAINING the program at general level Fry built it up to be over 20 years.

Going 7-5, to me, represents some slippage, mostly in Big 10 games (assuming 7-5 as the new "average"). The extra OOC wins are offset by losing MORE in conference than before.

Now, is that because Iowa is worse or the Big Ten (Wisconsin, NW) are better?

Fry, 20 years, 98-61-5 Big Ten, average 4.9-3.05-0.25 conference record. Basically 5 wins/yr conference.

Ferentz, 13 years, 57-47 Big Ten, average 4.38-3.67 conference record.
 
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8 wins should be the minimum based upon the resources put into the program and our schedule, which has been very soft as of late. It was mound of Barbasol soft this year. People need to realize that and then look at our results and the money we are paying KF. My view is that our coaches have done a TERRIBLE JOB the past 2 years, flat out AWFUL.

It is a poor return on investment and if we are going to win 6-7 games, I would rather we just hire a young energetic coach that does not punt from the opponents' 30 or take a knee with 2 mins to play and use the extra money on other endeavors within the athletic department. Any coach should be able to win 6-7 games with the current resources available and schedule. No point it paying top 10 dollars and getting Iowa State results (a good year for them).
 
SDK46 said:
My issue is we've had two years since 06 where the team underachieved significantly, with all sorts of talent. (06 and last year), with 2010 being a disaster.

It seems like the coaching staff does a lot well....developing players, representing the university, etc., but in those two instances the team got away from them with a few "fat cats" (as KF stated) infecting the team.

Not sure why we, in the last 5 years, seemingly lack prowess in the area of "taking a really excellent team to a new level."
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This is the main thing that bugs me. 2005-06 and 2010 were CLEAR opportunities to take the program to the next level and those teams folded. The recruiting disadvantages might subside if we can ever parlay a three-year run into being talked about as annual B1G contenders. Instead, we remain the team that most frequently surprises everyone (which is only KINDA fun).
 
I grew up in the Hayden Fry era, my first football memories were watching Iowa in the 82 Rose Bowl. But during the Hayden era we always hoped for a bowl bid and were excited with the occasional run at the Rose Bowl. Towards the end of his career it was obvious he had raised the bar to high for him to continue coaching. The hand off between Hayden Fry and Ferentz was not a pretty one between the different system and the lack of talent as we had to endure a couple of brutal seasons. But for some of us it made us realize just how fragile the program really is. This is no Nebraska or Notre Dame where they have already had the sustained success and the talent/resources keep pouring in. If you intend on winning at Iowa you have to develop the players to fit the system you are running. KF and his staff have been masters at this and it is what keeps Iowa winning. I know some of you hate the comparisons but you do not have to look any further than the basketball program to understand how difficult it is to maintain a high level of success in any sport at Iowa outside of wrestling. I keep hearing how mediocrity should not be accepted or references to the amount of money being paid to these coaches. This job should pay more as you will have to work twice as hard at Iowa than you do at Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, USC ect ect to maintain a successful program.

KF has done an outstanding job of taking the program from Hayden Fry and raising the bar even higher, KF has accomplished levels of success at Iowa that no coach has ever done for this length of time. For that he is owed some patience and understanding when they lose games they should win or have an occasional 6/7 win season. For every bad loss to Northwestern, Minnesota, or ISU there is an outstanding win over a Michigan, Penn State, or Bowl win to compensate. Losses to an inferior opponent happen, they are called upsets and it is why they play the game. Is KF one of the best game callers? Nope! Has he lost a game to a bad call or game management? Yep! But he is one of the best developer of NFL talent, and that is what Iowa needs to be competitive.

I can only hope KF can turn in another successful year fast to shut some of you up. I fear what could happen at Iowa if you chase off one of the best coaches we have ever had at Iowa.
 
I find it funny how fans try to argue with one another about outlier seasons and all. Those seasons did in fact happen and need to be included with the averages. Also, why the heat on Jon? I am not kissing *** but some people get so bent out of shape with his positive insight it is unbelievable.

Iowa will never get the respect we need until we put together a Championship team. We had a chance for that but depth killed us last year. Not an excuse, but sometimes the ball does not bounce your way. I believe this year was disappointing as we had 9 wins in our hands but ended up with 7. 2010 was not as disappointing to be looking back at it. We lost some close ones that could have gone either way.

Iowa is on the verge of having something special, but fans get so ****** about losing to teams that are no good it is ridiculous. Iowa lacks depth because of attrition and some bad recruiting classes. That is where my beef is with the staff. Not in the wins and loses but the perception of parents about the behavior of the team with all the attrition.

Riddle me this....... who has a longer bowl game winning streak than Iowa?

The sky is not falling. Imagine if we were Florida or Texas....... our program is actually in better shape then them at the moment.
 
Not4cy said:
That's a great question. I would like to know that answer also. Jon almost always defends Ferentz for what he has been able to accomplish but I would be willing to bet that the final results of the season are below what Jon's predictions were on several of the seasons.
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I just mainly have a hard time believing that his average pre-season predictions over the years is much worse than 8-4 or 8-5.
 
ssckelley said:
This is no Nebraska or Notre Dame where they have already had the sustained success and the talent/resources keep pouring in.
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People keep trumping up Nebraska as this program that Iowa could never hope to be.. But what are these resources that Nebraska has?

And don't tell me tradition. Nebraska wasn't born with that - they earned it by winning.

Nebraska is an even less-populated state than Iowa is, and therefore fewer in-state recruiting grounds. So they don't have an inherent recruiting advantage that is based on geography. See for yourself:

List of U.S. states by population density - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Nebraska also has cold weather (right next door to Iowa).

Nebraska is no prettier of a state than is Iowa. Trust me - I've driven through it and it's a whole lotta nothing.

Fan base - Iowa can fill Kinnick stadium. It seems there's enough fans. And our fans travel VERY well to bowl games. I don't think our fan base is a problem.

And as far as athletic department revenue goes, isn't Iowa something like #15 in the country of all universities? Not sure where Nebraska ranks. I remember Jon himself telling us this when our hoops program was searching for it's last coach and whether we could afford to buy out Lick's contract and/or hire a top flight coach.

So, what resources does Nebraska have that Iowa does not, that Iowa needs in order to win the same way that Nebraska was able to? If there's something I'm missing, please do share.

And regarding Notre Dame - do they not have more strict academic requirements than does Iowa? People always use this an excuse for how some basketball programs can win big, but Iowa cannot: "Their academic requirements are more lax, so they can bring in more athletes". Does this sword not cut both ways?
 
ssckelley said:
I grew up in the Hayden Fry era, my first football memories were watching Iowa in the 82 Rose Bowl. But during the Hayden era we always hoped for a bowl bid and were excited with the occasional run at the Rose Bowl. Towards the end of his career it was obvious he had raised the bar to high for him to continue coaching. The hand off between Hayden Fry and Ferentz was not a pretty one between the different system and the lack of talent as we had to endure a couple of brutal seasons. But for some of us it made us realize just how fragile the program really is. This is no Nebraska or Notre Dame where they have already had the sustained success and the talent/resources keep pouring in. If you intend on winning at Iowa you have to develop the players to fit the system you are running. KF and his staff have been masters at this and it is what keeps Iowa winning. I know some of you hate the comparisons but you do not have to look any further than the basketball program to understand how difficult it is to maintain a high level of success in any sport at Iowa outside of wrestling. I keep hearing how mediocrity should not be accepted or references to the amount of money being paid to these coaches. This job should pay more as you will have to work twice as hard at Iowa than you do at Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, USC ect ect to maintain a successful program.

KF has done an outstanding job of taking the program from Hayden Fry and raising the bar even higher, KF has accomplished levels of success at Iowa that no coach has ever done for this length of time. For that he is owed some patience and understanding when they lose games they should win or have an occasional 6/7 win season. For every bad loss to Northwestern, Minnesota, or ISU there is an outstanding win over a Michigan, Penn State, or Bowl win to compensate. Losses to an inferior opponent happen, they are called upsets and it is why they play the game. Is KF one of the best game callers? Nope! Has he lost a game to a bad call or game management? Yep! But he is one of the best developer of NFL talent, and that is what Iowa needs to be competitive.

I can only hope KF can turn in another successful year fast to shut some of you up. I fear what could happen at Iowa if you chase off one of the best coaches we have ever had at Iowa.
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Comparing Iowa basketball to Iowa football and what it means to the average fan in the state is not comparable. The fan support and financial support backing the program is way different. In football we would "buy" a coach, like we did to lock up Ferentz. We can't do that in basketball, because the ROI is not there.

The coach at Iowa shouldn't earn more than the coach at Texas, etc. if the expectations are less. I believe you should be payed more at Iowa if you achieve the same results, but not less of a result.

I have never called for Ferentz head, and won't. That doesn't mean things do need to be "adjusted" within the program.
 
It's the trend people that lots of us are worried about - not the average not the expecations but the trend

What was so different in the early 2000's to now? We're not the same program that we were then and thats what frightens and frustrates people.
 
My thoughts go along with a lot of people on this forum. I expect 8 win season. This season I was one click away from making the trip to the Nebraska game. I am very glad I did not make the trip. It's one thing to make it a close game but to not show up to play to me was unacceptable with the ability we had on the team this year.

The other part, I feel that the bowl games that we make is due to the fan base. If we were not loyal fans and did not travel it would not be us in the Insight bowl this year or last. I my self am going to Tempe again this year and I am extremely excited to watch the Hawks play win or loss.

I feel something more needs to be done for the fan base. I have no idea what this could be or if other universities do more for their fans then Iowa but the fact that every year we go to the bowls that we do, I feel that some more fan appreciation needs to happen.
 
Sorry I have A.D.D. or at least now I think I do because I lost all attention capabilities after the 6th paragraph.... I scrolled down and realized there was like 30 more paragraphs. It was very discouraging. YouTube video format with pictures and stuff might be able to do the trick just don't put flashy lights, too many people have been having seizures lately. Ha I kid

Our expections should be what they are during the preseason not factoring injuries due to Iowa not having depth. Before this season started we all expected a 6-6 to 8-5 record, some thought 9-4 at best. We are so far 7-5, I don't care how we got there but the fact we got there. I knew preseason our DLine wasn't going to be special so I figured if we could make a bowl and recruit some decents itd be a decent season

Last year was a underachievement, the year before was an overachievement. Next year I see us a 7-6 to 9-4, with a 10-3 at best and a 6-6 at horrible unexcusable worse
 
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