End of Season Conclusions

deanvogs

deanvogs

Well-Known Member
So there have been several conclusions that I have come to after this season of Iowa Basketball:

1) This team didn't choke down the stretch, the team actually OVER performed it's talent during Dec. and Jan. By this I mean I think most were right when saying this was a bubble team. We played like a bubble team in Nov., Feb. and March. That is what we were. The team played above it's talent level for most of Dec. and all of Jan.

2) We relied on the jump shot way too much this season. Mike G. never developed into a player who could finish at the rim. Uthoff never developed the strength or speed to get to the rim. Clemmons could get to the rim and finish, but was just too inconsistent in his game. Jok didn't finish at the rim well enough either.

3) I am tired of the motion offense. Watching so many other teams play over the last 4 days the basketball game has evolved away from the motion offense for a reason. It clogs up the lane, and doesn't give our players many lanes for a dribble drive opportunity. There is a reason that every time one of our players drives to the hole that they are met by at least 1 or more often 2 guys who can sag and help on D. That is because we don't create offensive spacing with the motion offense. Too many double screens for Jok to have to run off every time down the court (that is why he is gasses during games). Too little clear outs, and 4 men on the perimeter. Watch the sweet 16 and you will find the game has moved to more spacing with 3 or 4 guys on the perimeter to create lanes for whomever has the ball to drive to the basket.

4) Back to relevant. This is 3 NCAA appearances in a row. I thought that during the first 3 years of Fran that this might be something we would never see again. Now Fran's job is to exceed this 3 year run over the next 4 years. I think it is obvious by how Fran is recruiting that he understands that he needs some higher level athletes to make take this team to even more success. He did what he needed to do to get the program back on track, and I think he will now do what he needs to do to take Iowa up even another level.
 
One of my conclusions is that until Iowa can win or tie for a conference regular season title they will not make it past the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. You have to go back to Davis's last year to where Iowa made the sweet 16 and they finished second that year.

Another conclusion is that being B1G BBall conference champion is more a function of the schedule you are given rather than which team is the best team. It is who your five plays are, who your road games are against, and the last six games are against. This impacts your B1G tournament seeding, your impression on the NCAA selection committee, and of course where you are seeded.

Next year is a rebuilding year. One returning starter and inexperience everywhere else.
 
The seniors were good. We were at ground zero, and they brought this program back from the dead. Kudos for that! They were just missing that one piece, the killer instinct. Thrive under pressure. If they had that, we would have road that wave they created in December and January. They also wouldn't have choked like they did the previous years. Such as it was... I am still thankful for them bringing this program back to being relevant again.

Fran has brought in some athletic players. They do not have the experience now. But next year will still be interesting to see. We will have 10 guys that will have at least one year in the program under their belts. That is not starting from ground zero.

New year, new team. With who we have and the four guys we have coming in, we will have the most athletic team Iowa has had since the early 90s. Possibly even the late 80s. That says something. They will be raw. But they will be able to run with anyone. They will be fun to watch and win more games than most think, that I do believe. Lookin forward to it already!
 
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We definitely over achieved early by having a bunch of double digit leads late in games. Our end of year play was still decent if this team had any ability to close out games. If we close 2 games late with one of them being Indiana, we tie for a conference championship with a bubble type team and a way tougher schedule than the team we tied with. I agree Dean. This wasn't as much a late season collapse as it was an inability to keep winning big coupled with the continued inability to win close games.
 
deanvogs said:
So there have been several conclusions that I have come to after this season of Iowa Basketball:

1) This team didn't choke down the stretch, the team actually OVER performed it's talent during Dec. and Jan. By this I mean I think most were right when saying this was a bubble team. We played like a bubble team in Nov., Feb. and March. That is what we were. The team played above it's talent level for most of Dec. and all of Jan.
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I disagree they choked. The seniors of January were not the seniors of February. They lost what mental toughness the had. The facial demeaner changed and you saw the desire to win dropped drastically. Whatever is causing this needs to be diagnosed and fixed. Baer showed he's aleader. I believe Wagner and Williams did too. The latter just didn't get to play enough.
 
deanvogs said:
3) I am tired of the motion offense. Watching so many other teams play over the last 4 days the basketball game has evolved away from the motion offense for a reason. It clogs up the lane, and doesn't give our players many lanes for a dribble drive opportunity. There is a reason that every time one of our players drives to the hole that they are met by at least 1 or more often 2 guys who can sag and help on D. That is because we don't create offensive spacing with the motion offense. Too many double screens for Jok to have to run off every time down the court (that is why he is gasses during games). Too little clear outs, and 4 men on the perimeter. Watch the sweet 16 and you will find the game has moved to more spacing with 3 or 4 guys on the perimeter to create lanes for whomever has the ball to drive to the basket.
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I think this is due to us not having an elite level point guard. Look at every team in the sweet 16, they have a guard that can drive, make his own space, and actually make lay-ups. We don't have that. We're playing this style of offense because we have to, we don't have a guy who can create, so we're stuck in this until we get one.
 
I think your 3rd and 4th points tie-in together. In order to move away from the motion offense you need shooters. It doesn't matter if they are catch and shoot guys or create spacing with their handle, you need some bombers.
 
My conclusions (my opinion)
1. Fran desperately needs an assistant head coach that can inspire the players as well as recognize and make in game adjustments. This will require relinquishing some control of the program, especially during the games. It will require him to check his ego and a lot of D-1 head coaches are incapable of that. He may need to hire and fire a few guys until he finds the right one but it needs to happen. Or he needs to take a long, hard look inside and learn how to do those things.
A revolving door of head coaches isn't good for a program but Fran can have a revolving door of assistants, until he finds the right guys. Since Fran is so involved in recruiting, changing assistants shouldn't have a huge effect on that area.
2. Fran needs to check his loyalty to his players, at the arena door. I understand why he has it. I understand the "devil you know" attitude. But at some point over the last 10 games, he needed to sit his starters. It's usually the last desperate act of a coach that has been unable to reach his players any other way. It's not easy but at some point you owe it to the other 8 guys sitting on the bench. Those other 8 guys certainly appreciate loyalty from their coach but they all sit there and think "I can do better than that". "If I only got some playing time". By "playing time", I don't mean 3 minutes here, 3 minutes there. I mean: Sit your SR starters (1 JR) for a half after they go out there and fail to run the offense, turn the ball over and take bad shots for an extended period of time, during a game.
You don't embarrass them. You don't even tell them why. After half time or to start a game, you simply run 5 new starters out and give them a half of basketball. Let the SRs sit on the bench and soak up what it means and take ownership of what they are failing to do, as a team. When you do this without saying anything to the players, they can't help but communicate with each other, to try and figure out a way to right the ship.
3. Fran's way of coaching works best when he recruits and signs players with mental toughness. And they are easy to identify if you know what you're looking for and ask the right questions of their high school coaches, AAU coaches, etc. I won't get into the ways to identify those kids as there are many things. These kids take the coaching, game plan and conditioning during the week and usually apply them the during games. With little or no in game motivation needed.
4. We have a few of those sitting on the bench, that will most likely be playing next year, so it could be interesting and fun to see how they develop. None of them have the skill sets of Jok and Uthoff, however. So I'm curious to see who puts in the work to develop those skills, as they are usually developed in the off season.
 
And I disagree vehemently, that this team overachieved in the first 2/3 of the season. They played AS A TEAM! They moved the ball. They moved without the ball. They made extra passes to get open looks. It was a thing of beauty. When they hit some adversity later in conference play, they switched to hero ball. A lot of standing around waiting for Uthoff or Jok to score points. That can become like a cancer, all by itself. There are several things that can cause this. A good scouting report can help the other teams put you in tough spots to be unable to effectively run your offense. That's where in game coaching adjustments need to be made.
This team was picked to be mediocre in the pre-season because they had not shown thst they could play as a team, for an extended period of time, before. When the same 4 or 5 players exhibit the same traits for a few years, why would a pre-season prognosticator think they would perform differently? The coach had never shown the ability to make in game adjustments. The players had never shown how to win with advanced teamwork.
For 20+ games, they showed they had that ability to play TEAM basketball. They were capable. And then they reverted right back to being what they were for the past 3 years. Good enough to win against average talent. Not team oriented enough to beat above average talent.
 
Dean I'll agree over the course of the season they probably ended up where they should have been. However, I think me and you could last 10 minutes in Iowa's motion offense. Spacing only works with movement be it via passing or actual motion. Iowa does both poorly. Iowa's offensive woes are related to a poor half court game. Fran is a fine coach but he needs a major over haul in his offensive scheme. Granted a scoring threat at PG would have made a huge difference.

Fran needs to do what KF did last year and take a critical look at their scheme via inside and outside sources. The end of the year regression year after year needs to be evaluated.
 
eyekwah said:
One of my conclusions is that until Iowa can win or tie for a conference regular season title they will not make it past the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. You have to go back to Davis's last year to where Iowa made the sweet 16 and they finished second that year.

Another conclusion is that being B1G BBall conference champion is more a function of the schedule you are given rather than which team is the best team. It is who your five plays are, who your road games are against, and the last six games are against. This impacts your B1G tournament seeding, your impression on the NCAA selection committee, and of course where you are seeded.

Next year is a rebuilding year. One returning starter and inexperience everywhere else.
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Agreed. They might not have to win/tie for a title, but gotta do better in the regular season than they have.

In 1999, Iowa was a 5 seed, so basically had to win a coin flip 4/5 game in the second round to do it. That's reasonable. It's difficult to make the Sweet 16 when you finish middle of the pack, get a 7/8 seed, and have to play a 1/2 seed in the second round. That's normally been the case for Iowa in my lifetime. At least since BJ, Roy, and Ed graduated, anyway

Gotta do better in the regular season to get yourself a good NCAA bracket setup, which IMO is going to require better recruiting - specifically an upgrade in our back court, and finding some kind of a post game. Iowa ended up a team that pretty much relied on jump shots - no post game, and an overall inability from our guards to penetrate, dish, score, etc. Need to do better at the 1/2 positions, and 4/5. We have enough 3's.

Oh, and how about a little intensity on D? Allowing 10+ threes and 60% shooting, it's hard to win.
 
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Fran needs to improve as a coach as much, or more so, than any player during the off-season.
 
BGOLD said:
Fran needs to improve as a coach as much, or more so, than any player during the off-season.
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I like Fran, but he's 56 - I wonder if he's more or less stuck in his ways and that he is who he is at this point.

Then again, he hasn't coached in the Big Ten for very long - so I'm hoping he realizes that certain things that may have worked at Siena may not necessarily work at this level.
 
For the second year in a row, we, quite literally, knew we were an NCAA team by end of February. That's a plus.

For the last three years, we went from having a chance to be a top-5 seed and couldn't close well enough to be better than a 7-seed, with one of those being a "first-four" 11-seed. That's a minus.

We have now made three straight NCAA tournaments. Plus.

We have also dropped the ball come B1G Tournament time those three years. Minus.
 
This team choked hard make no mistake about it. Did they play over their heads earlier in the season? Yes, a little bit. This team really had three phases.
-Phase one was non-conference play where we looked pretty good. Had a couple of nice wins and no bad losses. Kept it close against better teams like ISU and ND. This is the team I felt like we truly are.
-Phase two was early B1G play where we looked unstoppable. We played over our heads some in this phase.
-Phase three was where we completely pooped the bed against inferior competition culminating in an extremely embarrassing blowout loss to Villanova. We would likely still be playing if we'd been a 3 or 4 seed.
 
dlbrandt said:
I disagree they choked. The seniors of January were not the seniors of February. They lost what mental toughness the had. The facial demeaner changed and you saw the desire to win dropped drastically. Whatever is causing this needs to be diagnosed and fixed. Baer showed he's aleader. I believe Wagner and Williams did too. The latter just didn't get to play enough.
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I don't mean to be a d!ck, but no. The seniors were not clutch, no argument there. But they were plenty mentally tough and they never gave up. Beat Purdue when down 18 at half, came back from double digit deficits to make it a 1 score game multiple times, came back from down 34, with almost Zero chance to win to make it somewhat respectable inside 20. Mentally weak teams don't do those things.

Facial expressions? Cmon man. This team had plenty of desire, they lacked other things.
 
HawkeyeWalker said:
I don't mean to be a d!ck, but no. The seniors were not clutch, no argument there. But they were plenty mentally tough and they never gave up. Beat Purdue when down 18 at half, came back from double digit deficits to make it a 1 score game multiple times, came back from down 34, with almost Zero chance to win to make it somewhat respectable inside 20. Mentally weak teams don't do those things.

Facial expressions? Cmon man. This team had plenty of desire, they lacked other things.
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Walker, I respect you as a poster, and you are more reasonable than I am, but losing by 19 isn't respectable. Our starters cutting the deficit against their backups isn't a sign of mental toughness. It's a pure talent issue. The game was over. Villanova wasn't trying at that point.
 
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