End of Season Conclusions

[WindsorHawk]

Iowa has gotten better every year and will continue to get better under the coaching staff. It should be fun watching the new guys along with Jok next year. The team is going to look a lot different. The team has pretty much looked the same in a lot of ways with Gesell and Woodbury as the foundation of the last four years with Fran upgrading the talent every year. I think the coaching staff has done a great job. The coaching staff are getting better and better recruits every year. When Fran took the job he saw it as a process, and it continues to be an upward process.

I agree.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Agreed. I like Fran too and don't know if he has or has not reached his ceiling, but I'd like to see him stick around for at least a few more years to see how much further he can take this thing.

I said earlier in this thread, that I'd rather keep the status quo and remain "OK" until the time is right instead of firing your coach and then go shopping. That goes for Fran and KF. That strategy rarely seems to work, unless you're a blue blood that can go out and lure away just about anyone you want. Frankly, I think after Lickliter, we got pretty lucky to even get a coach like Fran that could get us back to dancing again. Many programs fire their coach and continue to suck..

If your coach isn't cutting it, it's an easy choice, but there would have to be a deal pretty much already in place with someone really, really solid before I'd want to pull the trigger on a Mr. Davis type scenario again. I'm not saying "don't do it", but that you just have to be really sure of where you're headed when you do.

I loved Mr. Davis. But I thought Alford was a great hire. And I was 100% wrong. This may give some perspective as to why I'm not in a rush to get rid of a coach that has put us in 3 straight NCAAs.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Including the last two years, Iowa has won at least two-thirds of its conference games in a season only six times since Lute left. That is thirty-three years people. In other words, prior to last year, the Hawks had won two-thirds of its B1G games in a season only four times in the previous thirty-one years. All Fran has to do next year is win one conference game & he will have the same conference record in years three through seven as Mr. Davis. In comparing the two, I throw out the first two seasons because Davis inherited Armstrong, Horton, Gamble, Jones, Lohaus, Lorenzen, Marble, Moe & Wright; whereas Fran inherited Lick recruits.

Great post!

 

[Hawk90]

I loved Mr. Davis. But I thought Alford was a great hire. And I was 100% wrong. This may give some perspective as to why I'm not in a rush to get rid of a coach that has put us in 3 straight NCAAs.

I'm sorry Windsor, I just disagree that getting to the tourney is that big of a deal anymore. 50% of the B1G made it this year. I think that if you are in a P5 conference and you have over 20 wins you stand a good chance of getting in. Seeding and how far you go in the tourney are of course a big deal, but getting in is no longer the gold standard for how good of a program you have.

And yes I remember the years we were not going to the dance, but at Iowa I think it is very realistic to make it 4 out of 5 years. A look back at Iowa history will show quite a few good Iowa teams that did not make it, but they only took 16 teams until 1951, and 25 until 1974, 1975 32 teams, 1979 40 teams, 1980 48 teams, 1985 64 teams and now 68.

 

[ColumbusHawk]

I'm sorry Windsor, I just disagree that getting to the tourney is that big of a deal anymore. 50% of the B1G made it this year. I think that if you are in a P5 conference and you have over 20 wins you stand a good chance of getting in, how far you go in the tourney is a big deal, but getting in is no longer the gold standard for how good of a program you have.

And yes I remember the years we were not going to the dance, but at Iowa I think it is very realistic to make it 4 out of 5 years. A look back at Iowa history will show quite a few good Iowa teams that did not make it, but they only took 16 teams until 1951, and 25 until 1974, 1975 32 teams, 1979 40 teams, 1980 48 teams, 1985 64 teams and now 68.

Lute made it five straight years when they never took more than forty-eight teams. So, four out of five years is no big deal today.

 

[lightning1]

I loved Mr. Davis. But I thought Alford was a great hire. And I was 100% wrong. This may give some perspective as to why I'm not in a rush to get rid of a coach that has put us in 3 straight NCAAs.

I'm guilty of that too. I hope I'm a little smarter these days. .....but you never know.

 

[PCHawk]

There is just so much parody these days. There are a couple schools who will always make it and the rest will shuffle in and out.

 

[skinnykilmer17]

There is just so much parody these days. There are a couple schools who will always make it and the rest will shuffle in and out.

Parody? Who is mocking whom? Lil' Pitino pretending to be a 4-H basketball coach? I'll take the 4-H guy.

 

[tanaros]

Agreed. I like Fran too and don't know if he has or has not reached his ceiling, but I'd like to see him stick around for at least a few more years to see how much further he can take this thing.

I said earlier in this thread, that I'd rather keep the status quo and remain "OK" until the time is right instead of firing your coach and then go shopping. That goes for Fran and KF. That strategy rarely seems to work, unless you're a blue blood that can go out and lure away just about anyone you want. Frankly, I think after Lickliter, we got pretty lucky to even get a coach like Fran that could get us back to dancing again. Many programs fire their coach and continue to suck..

If your coach isn't cutting it, it's an easy choice, but there would have to be a deal pretty much already in place with someone really, really solid before I'd want to pull the trigger on a Mr. Davis type scenario again. I'm not saying "don't do it", but that you just have to be really sure of where you're headed when you do.

Next year will be very interesting, because no one has any real idea what to expect with such massive roster turnover, and with 10 of the 13 being underclassmen. my expectations going forward are to contend for the ncaas most years (barring injuries) and upper third finishes or better in the big 10. i think iowa will be all right next year, but the overall season could be uneven. the 2 great unknowns will be the development of the younger players, as well as what the schedule will be.

if my understanding of how the big10 will be rotating the conference schedules, iowa should have an easier slate than the past couple of years so hopefully that will help. i also think that fran will be more liberal in his use of timeouts for example, due to the youth of the squad. i think part of the reason he did not the past couple of years was the overall experience of his players. in either case, i at least appreciate his consistency. no matter which approach a coach prefers, its equally important that the coach be consistent either way.

 

[ssckelley]

I do not think that Iowa is a basket-case coaching graveyard some would have us believe.

Literally nobody on here is saying that. But the Calipari's or the Patino (Sr) types will never come to Iowa.

We can get a good coach if Fran decides to leave, or does not perform in the next few years. We have good facilities, a good fanbase, and plenty of money. There are plenty of up-and-coming coaches that would love to coach here, if for no other reason than to get to a blue-blood someday.

These "up-an-coming" coaches come with a huge risk. Far more flame out or become mediocre than turn a program into a "blue-blood" type. For now I'd prefer to stick with our own "up-and-coming" coach to see if he can get us to a B1G championship and/or a Sweet 16 (and beyond). To me that appears to be the safest bet. Right now Fran's worst case scenario appears to be occasional NCAA appearances with NIT's sprinkled in (basically what we had with Alford) OTOH he could also be the next Gary Williams (check out his coaching history at Maryland).

 

[deanvogs]

Literally nobody on here is saying that. But the Calipari's or the Patino (Sr) types will never come to Iowa.



These "up-an-coming" coaches come with a huge risk. Far more flame out or become mediocre than turn a program into a "blue-blood" type. For now I'd prefer to stick with our own "up-and-coming" coach to see if he can get us to a B1G championship and/or a Sweet 16 (and beyond). To me that appears to be the safest bet. Right now Fran's worst case scenario appears to be occasional NCAA appearances with NIT's sprinkled in (basically what we had with Alford) OTOH he could also be the next Gary Williams (check out his coaching history at Maryland).

Spot on ssckelley. These "up and coming" mid major coaches flame out far more often than becoming the next Bo Ryan. Take Steve Alfraud for example he was the next "it" kid. Then you got Lick, he was COY from a mid major school and had 2 sweet 16's on his resume. Both should be good hires on paper, both were a disaster.

 

[Foval21]

#3 is very wrong. Motion offense is a misnomer as most teams use motion offense as very few only use sets. There are also multiple types of motion offenses. Kentucky and Calipari use what is called the dribble drive motion. UNC under Roy Williams uses a motion offense. Wisconsin this year as gotten back to their motion offense called the Swing Offense. I actually think that Iowa has struggled the most when they have gotten away from their motion and tried to isolate too much (ie late in the season with uthoff and jok, end of Marble's senior season, and at the end of halves). Go to the level above College called the NBA...Phil Jackson used the Triangle offense which is a type of motion offense. Then you have the Golden State offense which is a screen and roll motion where shooters go to spots and off screen based on the pick and roll movement. David Blatt runs a similar offense and that was part of the disconnect with Lebron James as Lebron wants to isolate.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Spot on ssckelley. These "up and coming" mid major coaches flame out far more often than becoming the next Bo Ryan. Take Steve Alfraud for example he was the next "it" kid. Then you got Lick, he was COY from a mid major school and had 2 sweet 16's on his resume. Both should be good hires on paper, both were a disaster.

And Bo Ryan wasn't an up and comer. He was a long time head coach in his 50's when he took over at Wisconsin. But Bennett hadn't left the cupboard completely bare like Lick. I was curious how Bo did in the NCAA while at Wisconsin.

2002 - Round of 32
2003 - Sweet 16
2004 - Round of 32
2005 - Elite 8
2006 - Round of 64
2007 - Round of 32
2008 - Sweet 16
2009 - Round of 32
2010 - Round of 32
2011 - Sweet 16
2012 - Sweet 16
2013 - Round of 64
2014 - Final 4
2015 - Championship game

He went to one Elite 8 in his first 12 years. And there was a 5 year stretch in the middle where he only made it to one Sweet 16.

 

[NikeHawk21]

My conclusions (my opinion)
1. Fran desperately needs an assistant head coach that can inspire the players as well as recognize and make in game adjustments. This will require relinquishing some control of the program, especially during the games. It will require him to check his ego and a lot of D-1 head coaches are incapable of that. He may need to hire and fire a few guys until he finds the right one but it needs to happen. Or he needs to take a long, hard look inside and learn how to do those things.
A revolving door of head coaches isn't good for a program but Fran can have a revolving door of assistants, until he finds the right guys. Since Fran is so involved in recruiting, changing assistants shouldn't have a huge effect on that area.
2. Fran needs to check his loyalty to his players, at the arena door. I understand why he has it. I understand the "devil you know" attitude. But at some point over the last 10 games, he needed to sit his starters. It's usually the last desperate act of a coach that has been unable to reach his players any other way. It's not easy but at some point you owe it to the other 8 guys sitting on the bench. Those other 8 guys certainly appreciate loyalty from their coach but they all sit there and think "I can do better than that". "If I only got some playing time". By "playing time", I don't mean 3 minutes here, 3 minutes there. I mean: Sit your SR starters (1 JR) for a half after they go out there and fail to run the offense, turn the ball over and take bad shots for an extended period of time, during a game.
You don't embarrass them. You don't even tell them why. After half time or to start a game, you simply run 5 new starters out and give them a half of basketball. Let the SRs sit on the bench and soak up what it means and take ownership of what they are failing to do, as a team. When you do this without saying anything to the players, they can't help but communicate with each other, to try and figure out a way to right the ship.
3. Fran's way of coaching works best when he recruits and signs players with mental toughness. And they are easy to identify if you know what you're looking for and ask the right questions of their high school coaches, AAU coaches, etc. I won't get into the ways to identify those kids as there are many things. These kids take the coaching, game plan and conditioning during the week and usually apply them the during games. With little or no in game motivation needed.
4. We have a few of those sitting on the bench, that will most likely be playing next year, so it could be interesting and fun to see how they develop. None of them have the skill sets of Jok and Uthoff, however. So I'm curious to see who puts in the work to develop those skills, as they are usually developed in the off season.

Here it is @lightning1

Certainly had some criticisms of Fran at the time that were well warranted, and have reared their ugly head these last few years as well. No mention of wanting to fire Fran though.

 

[lightning1]

Here it is @lightning1

Certainly had some criticisms of Fran at the time that were well warranted, and have reared their ugly head these last few years as well. No mention of wanting to fire Fran though.

You should go through the game threads during that 8 game collapse. Also link the game threads for the last 8 games of that season. I guarantee you I am calling for him to be fired at least once.

 

[lightning1]

Here it is @lightning1

Certainly had some criticisms of Fran at the time that were well warranted, and have reared their ugly head these last few years as well. No mention of wanting to fire Fran though.

Find the game threads from the Illinois BTN loss and the 2nd round NCAA loss. I'm on my phone and it doesn't offer the search function. Link those threads and let's see what I had to say.
Or I can do it later, when I get home.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I loved Mr. Davis. But I thought Alford was a great hire. And I was 100% wrong. This may give some perspective as to why I'm not in a rush to get rid of a coach that has put us in 3 straight NCAAs.

I'm guilty of that too. I hope I'm a little smarter these days. .....but you never know.

This is your response to Windsor saying it is not smart to fire a coach after 3 tournaments.

 

[lightning1]

This is your response to Windsor saying it is not smart to fire a coach after 3 tournaments.

And clearly I was wrong. It happens. My opinions change from year to year, day to day, hour to hour. All depends on the information I gather between expressing those opinions. Once again, post the game threads I asked for. Let's see what my opinions are when we are getting beat down. I'm sure they are different. Or I will do it when I get home and tag you accordingly.

 

[NikeHawk21]

And clearly I was wrong. It happens. My opinions change from year to year, day to day, hour to hour. All depends on the information I gather between expressing those opinions. Once again, post the game threads I asked for. Let's see what my opinions are when we are getting beat down. I'm sure they are different. Or I will do it when I get home and tag you accordingly.

I couldn’t find game threads. I searched the word Fran and Fire by lightning and that’s what I found.

This is a thread about end of season conclusions and it’s clear you weren’t calling for Fran’s head which is reasonable considering we had just gone to our third consecutive dance and second consecutive round of 32.

Time to move along.

 

[lightning1]

I couldn’t find game threads. I searched the word Fran and Fire by lightning and that’s what I found.

This is a thread about end of season conclusions and it’s clear you weren’t calling for Fran’s head which is reasonable considering we had just gone to our third consecutive dance and second consecutive round of 32.

Time to move along.

I'll find the game threads tonight and post the threads where I called for Fran to be fired. You know they exist, as you have already seen them and refuse to post them. I'll do it for you later.