theboat
Well-Known Member
You must be like Jonah Hill in moneyball.Correct. Most coaches put a higher priority on extending the game than they do giving their team the best chance to win. I think that's crazy.
You must be like Jonah Hill in moneyball.Correct. Most coaches put a higher priority on extending the game than they do giving their team the best chance to win. I think that's crazy.
You don't get to have it both ways here. You said they "should go for 2" because they need to know if they have to score once or twice. The fact is they don't need to know this, because the odds of them getting a 2nd onside kick and scoring again are infinitesimal to the point of not even mattering.
You do realize that the saints would have also win if they made their 2 point conversion first don't you? Just like they would have lost if they missed it the second time.
Except no math or coaches agree with youI would rather give myself the best chance to win. Reguardless of when that chance came. You have the mindset of staying alive as long as possible. Even if it decreases your odds of winning. Most coaches agree with you.
Well it has always made sense to me for some reason. Then I've educated myself on it a little more and it makes even more sense. You know why? Because I had an open mind.You must be like Jonah Hill in moneyball.
Except no math or coaches agree with you
show your workThe math does.
The math does.
Show your workSo boat, I'll ask you. Would you rather have a higher percentage chance of winning, but you have to take that chance with 1 minute left? Or would you rather stay alive until the last play, even tho it gives you a smaller chance? Again, this question has nothing to do with the 2 point conversion. Just a random question.
So boat, I'll ask you. Would you rather have a higher percentage chance of winning, but you have to take that chance with 1 minute left? Or would you rather stay alive until the last play, even tho it gives you a smaller chance? Again, this question has nothing to do with the 2 point conversion. Just a random question.
WTF did I just read?It's as simple as knowing the score vs not knowing the score. When you're down 8, you don't know the score. It would be like not knowing if you were down by 2 or 3 with 10 seconds left in basketball. You might shoot a 2, feel good about yourself, then find out you lost by 1. All because you didn't know the score.
You can't prove that math. You can't prove that a team can score twice simply because they know they have to score twice, it does't work like that, and I don't understand how you think that math can be proven?
I have tried to figure out why the Iowa coaching staff chose to go for the two point conversion, when a kicked extra point would have got us to within one possession and still a possibility to tie. I thought you always PRESERVE your possibility to tie or win to keep pressure on the opponent. I don't ever recall a college or pro team in the same position as the Hawkeyes and choosing to go for two.
Can someone give me a plausible explanation for going for two????
It's as simple as knowing the score vs not knowing the score. When you're down 8, you don't know the score. It would be like not knowing if you were down by 2 or 3 with 10 seconds left in basketball. You might shoot a 2, feel good about yourself, then find out you lost by 1. All because you didn't know the score.
WTF did I just read?
When you are down 8, you don't truly know you only need one possession. 47% of the time, you will make the 2 pt conversion and it was a one possession game. 53% of the time, you will miss it and that means you were down 2 possessions. Can you really not make sense of that?
Not true at all. You are assuming the team will intentionally take longer to score because they think they have "tied" the game. In fact a coach already knows they could still be possible down after they score and not convert. So in the back of a coaches mind they are still down 2 scores, and will try to score quickly.
Take the Saints game for example. Payton correctly kicks the XP to be down 8. He knows that if he doesn't make the 2 point conversion they are still down. So the Saints get the ball, and score and then make the 2 point conversion to tie the game. They had 43 seconds left to try to score again if they didn't convert.