theboat
Well-Known Member
You must be like Jonah Hill in moneyball.
Down 9 and going for 2
- Thread starter enosmohawk
- Start date
And that's fine because it's a close call. But you say it still isn't worth it with 5 minutes left and that isn't even close.
So do you realize this or not Dean?
theboat
Well-Known Member
Except no math or coaches agree with you
Well it has always made sense to me for some reason. Then I've educated myself on it a little more and it makes even more sense. You know why? Because I had an open mind.
The math does.
theboat
Well-Known Member
show your work
So boat, I'll ask you. Would you rather have a higher percentage chance of winning, but you have to take that chance with 1 minute left? Or would you rather stay alive until the last play, even tho it gives you a smaller chance? Again, this question has nothing to do with the 2 point conversion. Just a random question.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
The math only agrees with you if you assign a positive win probability to the fact that you can score 2 times because you know you had to score 2 times. There is no way you can prove this, there isn't a math formula that can prove a team can score 2 times just because they know they need to.
theboat
Well-Known Member
Show your work
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
You can't prove that math. You can't prove that a team can score twice simply because they know they have to score twice, it does't work like that, and I don't understand how you think that math can be proven?
It's as simple as knowing the score vs not knowing the score. When you're down 8, you don't know the score. It would be like not knowing if you were down by 2 or 3 with 10 seconds left in basketball. You might shoot a 2, feel good about yourself, then find out you lost by 1. All because you didn't know the score.
theboat
Well-Known Member
WTF did I just read?
I'm not proving that they can score twice. I'm saying you have a better chamce to score twice if you know you need to score twice.
If you're down 8 with 4 minutes left, you can run the ball, throw 5 yard passes, take some time between plays. All because you think you are down 1 possession. But over half of the time, you are going to find out you were really down 2 possessions because you ended up missing the 2 point conversion. If only you knew in advance you were down 2 possessions, you could have abandoned the running game and went no huddle. But you didn't because you didn't know the score.
NCHawker
Well-Known Member
From the mind who faked a field goal against Ohio State comes the plan to score 16 points in two possessions when down by 15. Go for two the first time, then recover the kick and go for 2 the second time.
That is the only explanation that I can think of.
I'm not defending it, just putting it out there.
Iowa went for poo
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Not true at all. You are assuming the team will intentionally take longer to score because they think they have "tied" the game. In fact a coach already knows they could still be possible down after they score and not convert. So in the back of a coaches mind they are still down 2 scores, and will try to score quickly.
Take the Saints game for example. Payton correctly kicks the XP to be down 8. He knows that if he doesn't make the 2 point conversion they are still down. So the Saints get the ball, and score and then make the 2 point conversion to tie the game. They had 43 seconds left to try to score again if they didn't convert.
When you are down 8, you don't truly know you only need one possession. 47% of the time, you will make the 2 pt conversion and it was a one possession game. 53% of the time, you will miss it and that means you were down 2 possessions. Can you really not make sense of that?
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
You are the one claiming there is a mathematical advantage to being down 9 vs 8 because you "know you need two scores". So you explain how you come to that math, how a team can just magically score faster if it just knows it needs to scores twice, instead of hoping they only need one score, but playing as if they need 2 scores.
If a coach would really hurry up as fast as they can, it's ok. But I've seen a lot of 8 point games where there was not near enough urgency. The article I read referenced a packers game where they were down 15, kicked a PAT, took their time, scored at the end, and missed the 2 point conversion. They had false comfort of thinking they were in a one possession game.
