Down 9 and going for 2

[PCHawk]

It is like trying to explain to you that 2+2=4, but you keep insisting 2+2=5, but you betcha Sean Payton got lucky.

Actually you are explaining that 2+2=4, then I'm saying 2+2 also =4. Then you say no it doesn't.

 

[theboat]

I have no idea how to look. I'm assuming a guy who realizes his offense is so good that he has a better than 50/50 chance to get a 2 point conversion, so he has the balls to go against traditional wisdom and do it, also understands the percentages like this one. I've never seen him do it because I rarely watch his games. But I bet he would.

So you are saying Iowa should go for 2 based on one coach who had the best offenses in college football who may or may not have gone for it because you don’t know, using your probability that makes no sense?

 

[theboat]

Dean, do you get that an 8 possession game is only a 1 possession game less than half the time?

And a 9 point game is 2 possession 100 % of the time.

 

[PCHawk]

Here's another question Dean. If you had the ball late in the game, would you rather know a touchdown would keep you in the game, or not know a touchdown would keep you in the game?

 

[PCHawk]

So you are saying Iowa should go for 2 based on one coach who had the best offenses in college football who may or may not have gone for it because you don’t know, using your probability that makes no sense?

No I'm saying most coaches, evenwith his offense, wouldn't do what he did even though it was really smart to do.

 

[83Hawk]

But some people do get it already. Coaches like Chip Kelly factor in probabilities. But statistics and probabilities are fairly new in football. Coaches are starting to educate themselves on them and implement them in game plans. Like I said earlier. In 10 years or so, it will be common knowledge to go for 2 first in that situation.

Sometimes you have two options. Extend the game, or give yourself the best chance to win the game. Right now, more people are concerned with extending the game, even when it's at the cost of actually winning the game. That's changing. But it won't overnight.

No, it will not become common knowledge in 10 years to go for 2 and I would lay money on it.

It is *always* better to only need 1 score than 2. Agree? So, if you take the almost sure thing and kick the xp with a minute left, a team only needs one more score and conversion. “Your” way, if a team takes the riskier route going for 2 and fails, then you have automatically essentially given your team no chance to win, because now you definitely need 2 possessions. You keep bringing up the point about failing a 2 point try and having no time left to “make up” for it. That argument is bogus. If you fail to convert the 2 as the Hawks did, the game is, for all intents and purposes, over, with a minute still left to play. It would take a miracle to get 2 more possessions and scores. If you kick the xp, you at least have a manageable chance to tie the game.

“Probabilities” favor kicking. I have proven that. I don’t see why this is so difficult for you to grasp.

 

[PCHawk]

And a 9 point game is 2 possession 100 % of the time.

But you only have a 9 point game if you miss the 2 point conversion. Just like you have a 2 point game if you miss it later. Are you even trying to understand this?

 

[PCHawk]

No, it will not become common knowledge in 10 years to go for 2 and I would lay money on it.

It is *always* better to only need 1 score than 2. Agree? So, if you take the almost sure thing and kick the xp with a minute left, a team only needs one more score and conversion. “Your” way, if a team takes the riskier route going for 2 and fails, then you have automatically essentially given your team no chance to win, because now you definitely need 2 possessions. You keep bringing up the point about failing a 2 point try and having no time left to “make up” for it. That argument is bogus. If you fail to convert the 2 as the Hawks did, the game is, for all intents and purposes, over, with a minute still left to play. It would take a miracle to get 2 more possessions and scores. If you kick the xp, you at least have a manageable chance to tie the game.

“Probabilities” favor kicking. I have proven that. I don’t see why this is so difficult for you to grasp.

They still had a chance to tie it up. They took that chance and missed. Remember?

 

[theboat]

But you only have a 9 point game if you miss the 2 point conversion. Just like you have a 2 point game if you miss it later. Are you even trying to understand this?

Yes. And I proved why that is a silly point to make

 

[PCHawk]

Yes. And I proved why that is a silly point to make

So do you still think it would be dumb with 4 minutes left? Just curious.

 

[PCHawk]

I get the whole "most coaches do it so it must be right" point because most of the time that would be true. But my Chip Kelly point proves that it isn't always true. What he does with 2 point conversion is very smart and no one does it.

 

[theboat]

So do you still think it would be dumb with 4 minutes left? Just curious.

Not nearly as dumb, because if you leave yourself a 2 possession game, you have a chance, albeit slim, to get 2 possessions. With 1 minute you have no chance at 2 possessions.

 

[PCHawk]

Yes. And I proved why that is a silly point to make

You didn't prove anything by the way. You just gave a rational argument. Something no one else has done.

 

[theboat]

I get the whole "most coaches do it so it must be right" point because most of the time that would be true. But my Chip Kelly point proves that it isn't always true. What he does with 2 point conversion is very smart and no one does it.

Except you admitted that you pulled that one out of thin air because you don’t know what he would do.

 

[PCHawk]

Not nearly as dumb, because if you leave yourself a 2 possession game, you have a chance, albeit slim, to get 2 possessions. With 1 minute you have no chance at 2 possessions.

But if you miss it at the end, you still had a 2 possession game because you are still down 2 points. Do you really not understand that?

 

[PCHawk]

Except you admitted that you pulled that one out of thin air because you don’t know what he would do.

I'm talking about what you said he does do. Tries to get an 8-0 lead right away. Its smart and no one does it.

 

[deanvogs]

Here's another question Dean. If you had the ball late in the game, would you rather know a touchdown would keep you in the game, or not know a touchdown would keep you in the game?

If I had the ball late in the game I would ALWAYS want to be within 1 score. Under NO circumstance would I want to be down 2 scores. This is the very basic premise that Sean Payton understood and many on here understand. If there is 15 minutes left I kick the XP, if there is 5 minutes left I kick the XP, if there 2:53 seconds left Sean Payton and I both kick the XP, if there is 1 minute left I kick the XP. You take the easiest points you can get to get to a 1 possession game.

 

[theboat]

I'm talking about what you said he does do. Tries to get an 8-0 lead right away. Its smart and no one does it.

So your argument now is just that 2 is better than one but nothing to do with Iowa’s actual situation. I can’t keep up

 

[GoHawks12345]

If I had the ball late in the game I would ALWAYS want to be within 1 score. Under NO circumstance would I want to be down 2 scores.

Do you maybe recall PCHawk addressing this what feels like a billion times at this point?

When your down 8, he is calling that being a 1.5 possession game.

Even if you disagree, you should at least be aware of what the other person is saying.

 

[PCHawk]

So your argument now is just that 2 is better than one but nothing to do with Iowa’s actual situation. I can’t keep up

I was arguing that just because most coaches do something, it doesn't mean it's right.