Down 9 and going for 2

[MelroseHawkins]

So with say 5 minutes left, you still wouldn't want to know if you were down one or two possessions? How can someone not want to know the score?

People are comparing the 0% chance of getting the first one to the 50% chance of getting the second one. This is like trying to teach 3rd graders algebra.

Different scenario. You are doing too many could uv, would uv scenarios trying to leverage your point or argument. Point is this could have been tied up in regulation. All bets were off after going for 2 first and missing. Time was left on the clock.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

The odds of having time and being able to recover 1 onside kick and scoring again is like a 1 in 100 chance anyway. If you don't convert the 2 point conversion when you attempt it, you are at a 0 in 100 chance of scoring 2 more times. There is absolutely no reason to "know" if you need to score two more times, as it is simply impossible.

Not sure I follow the logic of how you need less possessions to score 15 points if you kick the PAT first. 15 points is a 2 score game. If you fail the 2 point conversion, you need 3 possessions regardless of which order you do it in.

7 + 8 = 15
8 + 7 = 15

The only thing I can see making a difference is if you get to within 8 (one possession) and your team still feels like they have a chance. I see no real reason not to go for the PAT first but mathematically, 15 points is 15 points.

 

[83Hawk]

Not sure I follow the logic of how you need less possessions to score 15 points if you kick the PAT first. 15 points is a 2 score game. If you fail the 2 point conversion, you need 3 possessions regardless of which order you do it in.

7 + 8 = 15
8 + 7 = 15

The only thing I can see making a difference is if you get to within 8 (one possession) and your team still feels like they have a chance. I see no real reason not to go for the PAT first but mathematically, 15 points is 15 points.

Yes, your math is correct. The goal is to get it to a 1 possession game. You kick the PAT because that gets you the 1 possession (despite PC trying to say 8 points is not 1 possession). Going for 2 will also achieve that...BUT....the odds of making a PAT are significantly higher than converting the 2, so you go with the odds and kick.

I agree with the other poster who thinks PC is trolling. It has been pointed out to him numerous time why you kick in the scenario Iowa was in, but he just ignores it. There is a reason almost all coaches and football experts say kick the xp. But PC thinks they are all wrong.

 

[PCHawk]

Difference is with 5 minutes left you have a chance at 2 possessions. With 1 minute you don’t.

But people would still think it was dumb with 5 minutes left and they would be 100% wrong. With 1 minute left, no one is wrong. I'm just trying to help people understand simple math, but they can't.

 

[PCHawk]

You guys realize they actually attempted a 2 point conversion right? You act like he gave us no chance. He gave us a chance but the chance failed. Remember how Sanley sailed the ball out of bounds?

 

[theboat]

But people would still think it was dumb with 5 minutes left and they would be 100% wrong. With 1 minute left, no one is wrong. I'm just trying to help people understand simple math, but they can't.

I think you are the one missing the point. Yes simple math states that 8+7 and 7+ 8 both equal 15. However, no situation card or football coach anywhere says you go for 2 in that position. It is common football sense.

 

[PCHawk]

Once you miss the 2 pt conversion, you have basically no chance. Just like after we missed the on side kick, we had zero chance to get it so we should have kicked it deep. Anything is better than a 0% chance. I guarantee Chip Kelly goes for 2 there.

 

[shonblatt]

Not sure I follow the logic of how you need less possessions to score 15 points if you kick the PAT first. 15 points is a 2 score game. If you fail the 2 point conversion, you need 3 possessions regardless of which order you do it in.

7 + 8 = 15
8 + 7 = 15

The only thing I can see making a difference is if you get to within 8 (one possession) and your team still feels like they have a chance. I see no real reason not to go for the PAT first but mathematically, 15 points is 15 points.

15 = 15, but in my view they should have kicked the XP.

If you recover the onside kick and score again, you've got all the D on its heels and have all the momentum going for the tie.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Once you miss the 2 pt conversion, you have basically no chance. Just like after we missed the on side kick, we had zero chance to get it so we should have kicked it deep. Anything is better than a 0% chance. I guarantee Chip Kelly goes for 2 there.

Good job trolling us! Agree this is what is happening.

 

[deanvogs]

But people would still think it was dumb with 5 minutes left and they would be 100% wrong. With 1 minute left, no one is wrong. I'm just trying to help people understand simple math, but they can't.

It is really dumb going for 2 with 5 min left.

The goal is to always get within 1 score. Taking a sure XP to get there is always the better move.

 

[PCHawk]

It is really dumb going for 2 with 5 min left.

The goal is to always get within 1 score. Taking a sure XP to get there is always the better move.

And people not understanding this simple point is why I've wasted so much time on this. If there were 5 minutes to go, I would want to know if I was down one possession or two. It does no good to play the last 5 minutes like a one possession game, only to miss the 2 point conversion at the end and find out you were down two possessions.

 

[deanvogs]

And people not understanding this simple point is why I've wasted so much time on this. If there were 5 minutes to go, I would want to know if I was down one possession or two. It does no good to play the last 5 minutes like a one possession game, only to miss the 2 point conversion at the end and find out you were down two possessions.

How come you think it benefits the offense more to know they are down 2 possessions? If anything it is more advantageous to the defense to know they are up 2 scores.

 

[PCHawk]

15 = 15, but in my view they should have kicked the XP.

If you recover the onside kick and score again, you've got all the D on its heels and have all the momentum going for the tie.

This is a good point and I've already acknowledged it. Saying if you miss the 2 point conversion you need an extra possession is mind boggling stupid because you will always need an extra possession if you miss the 2 point conversion, even if it's at the end.

Please spend any amount of time to contemplate this for a second. It's amazing how bad people are at digging in. I've seen other points in this debate that make sense. My side makes a ton of sense too (especially with more time on the clock). And it's easy to follow if you try. It's really not hard at all.

 

[PCHawk]

How come you think it benefits the offense more to know they are down 2 possessions? If anything it is more advantageous to the defense to know they are up 2 scores.

Now that is a great question. If you follow this, Kirk's decision at least makes sense, even if you don't agree with it because of the lack of time.

Say you are down 15 with 4 minutes left and you score. You decide to go for 1 to "keep it a one possession game". Then you obviously kick off because you have the false comfort of thinking you can tie the game with one possession. Then you get a stop and score at the very end of the game. 53% of the time, you're about to find out that you were actually in a 2 possession game and didn't know it. Game over, you lose by 2.

Now say you decide to go for 2 after your first touchdown. You don't get it so now you KNOW you're in a 2 possession game. Time to start thinking onside kick or using your timeouts on defense. Things like that. You still have a chance at getting that second possession needed. Whereas if you wait, you don't get that chance when you miss.

There is one more plus tho. If you need to drive for a score, it's a lot easier to do it against a defense that has the comfort of knowing you need 2 scores as opposed to one. They will play an even softer prevent defense which is the easiest defense to move the ball on. It makes scoring that first time easier.

And remember, you are missing the 2 point conversion either way so no matter what you need 2 possessions. You can't say "dammit we missed the first, I wish we had a do over and could try the second".

 

[83Hawk]

See...you are "moving the goalposts" so to speak. Now you are throwing out "with 5 minutes left", or "with 4 minutes left". The strategy with 5 or even 4 minutes left is MUCH different than with only 1 minute left.

 

[ssckelley]

How come you think it benefits the offense more to know they are down 2 possessions? If anything it is more advantageous to the defense to know they are up 2 scores.

Let's pretend the onside kicked worked and we get the ball back with a minute left. Knowing we need 2 scores you get close enough to kick a quick field goal and then try again hoping to set up a hail mary, at least you know exactly what you need. If you kick the extra point to cut it to 8 point and recover the onside kick you're probably going to waste the entire clock getting it into the end zone and if you do the game is over if you don't convert the 2 point conversion.

I don't get why we are arguing about this, I see the logic both ways but this seems petty. Do the odds of conversion go up on the 2 point conversion waiting until the very end to go for it?

 

[ssckelley]

I don’t think it is nitpicking. I think it is football 101 and that is why people are so dumbfounded. Ferments has been making the simple decisions seem complex for far too long. It would be like a CEO of a finance company not understanding how an IRA works. It’s nutty and sad.

The 2 point conversion thing is petty, you need it either way and there is logic to go for it on the first touchdown so you know if its a 1 score game or 2 if you recover the onside kick.

Again, complain about the decision to take the ball going into the wind after winning the coin toss. That was the dumbest thing the coaches did and it set up 2 Purdue touchdowns.

 

[theboat]

The 2 point conversion thing is petty, you need it either way and there is logic to go for it on the first touchdown so you know if its a 1 score game or 2 if you recover the onside kick.

Again, complain about the decision to take the ball going into the wind after winning the coin toss. That was the dumbest thing the coaches did and it set up 2 Purdue touchdowns.

There are 8 million things to complain about. This thread is about one of them. And it was stupid.

 

[deanvogs]

Let's pretend the onside kicked worked and we get the ball back with a minute left. Knowing we need 2 scores you get close enough to kick a quick field goal and then try again hoping to set up a hail mary, at least you know exactly what you need. If you kick the extra point to cut it to 8 point and recover the onside kick you're probably going to waste the entire clock getting it into the end zone and if you do the game is over if you don't convert the 2 point conversion.

I don't get why we are arguing about this, I see the logic both ways but this seems petty. Do the odds of conversion go up on the 2 point conversion waiting until the very end to go for it?

When you are down 9 with a 1 minute to play and the odds of winning are pretty slim no matter what. The whole point though is the goal at that point is to get within 1 score. Same holds true if you are down 10 or 11 and you have 4th and 4 and are in FG range. You take the score that has the greatest % chance to get. IE you take the FG there, and then you go for the onsides kick.

This is the exact same thing. You have a 95% play to take the 1 point (XP) and pull within one score. You have maybe a 50% shot at getting the 2 point conversion. For the same reason you take the FG when down 10 and facing 4th down, is the same reason you take the XP, it is a far great % play to pull within 1 score.

 

[ssckelley]

When you are down 9 with a 1 minute to play and the odds of winning are pretty slim no matter what. The whole point though is the goal at that point is to get within 1 score. Same holds true if you are down 10 or 11 and you have 4th and 4 and are in FG range. You take the score that has the greatest % chance to get. IE you take the FG there, and then you go for the onsides kick.

This is the exact same thing. You have a 95% play to take the 1 point (XP) and pull within one score. You have maybe a 50% shot at getting the 2 point conversion. For the same reason you take the FG when down 10 and facing 4th down, is the same reason you take the XP, it is a far great % play to pull within 1 score.

But if you don't get the 2 point conversion the game is over no matter what if you wait. By going for 2 when it's a 9 point game then you know up front. The odds of conversion are not better if you wait, just the end result.

But seriously, I'm done with this.