Whenever you guarantee a prediction will happen, it's a bad take.
Do we really lose that much next year?
- Thread starter NikeHawk21
- Start date
Robowe
Well-Known Member
99topdawg
Well-Known Member
Well, she's 2 yards under, so probably not much in the kicking department, but she would be of no help in the fake punt game. So to answer your questions, zero and could she be worse?
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Think how great our team would be with Riley Rieff, Brandon Scherff, Blythe, Bulaga, and Marshal Yanda were all still at Iowa playing. Man oh man, we are soooo much worse off because we don't have them.
Dude, we lose people every year, that is college football. We lost 2 All American's from last years defense and we were undoubtedly a better defense this year without them. Not because we replaced those two with better players, but because OTHER players developed and stepped up. Each unit loses things, and life goes on. Our offensive line is going to probably be better next year as Wirfs, Jackson and Banwart will all take steps forward, and I'd bet right now Wirfs takes a HUGE step forward and could be our next dominate lineman. We lose 2 great TE, but if there is one thing you know about KF teams it is that one future TE steps up when another leaves. This year it is Hockenson and Fant, before that Kittle, before that CJ, before that Reisner, before that Moeaki, before that Myers, before that Chandler. I mean if one thing has been a constant it is that Iowa has had a future NFL TE on it's team every year since what 2000? So sorry if I'm now cowering in fear because we once again lost some TE's to the NFL.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Willing to place a wager on that? This offense isn't going back to the 110th ranking, even if we lose Hockenson.
Listen, I was one of the only ones on here saying that the offense was going to be better this year after last year. Most others were saying we lost Wadley, we can't replace him. Welp no shit, but we have other players, and we will be better offensively overall. As usual I was right bout last year, and I will be right about next year as well. We will still average between 380-400 YPG next year.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
lightning1
Well-Known Member
How do you figure we are "undoubtedly better defense this year"? By what measure?
lightning1
Well-Known Member
Place a wager on what exactly? I am willing to wager that we will not finish higher than 76th in total offense, next season. Name the amount. We will be using this metric:
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/21
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
Yards allowed:
2017: 357.5 (33rd in country)
2018: 290.8 (6th in country)
Points allowed per game:
2017: 19.9 (17th in country)
2018: 17.4 (11th in country)
Yards per play allowed:
2017: 4.9 (27th in country)
2018: 4.4 (9th in country)
Sacks:
2017: 29
2018: 34
lightning1
Well-Known Member
Not against the same schedule. Not against the same opponents. A simple comparison of the BIG West last season vs this season is a huge difference in quality of opponent. This year's BIG West is way worse than last season's. We actually played 3 top 10 teams last year. Not 1 top 10 team this year. I'm sorry but if either of you think this year's defense didn't benefit from a trash schedule, compared to last season.....that's a you problem.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Why would I bet you that the offense remains about the same (ranking around 76 again)? I am the one saying they would remain about the same next years (380-400 YPG) as this year. You claimed they would be "far worse" without Hock, like in the #100's offensively.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
We will be far worse without our 3 top receiving targets (assuming Hock leaves). Absolutely! I stand by that statement 100%.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
2018 Strength of schedule 43rd
2017 Strength of schedule 3rd
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
Ok, then bet on it. Lets define what "far worse" is. I'd say "far worse is 50 YPG less than what they were this year. So if Iowa averages 340 YPG or less you win. If they average 380 YPG or more I win. If it is between those two number I say call it a draw.
Oh, and our schedule if far, far more difficult next year, so you have an inherent advantage right there already.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
2017 = 329 yards per game
2018 = 389 yards per game
A difference of 60 yards per game between the 2 seasons.
I will give you 30 yards per game. Set the over/under at 359 yards per game for $100 and you got a bet. That's splitting the difference. You're the one that started this whole thing by saying "our offense will take a step forward next year". I guess you didn't actually mean more yards per game? What were you referring to, exactly?
I will take a piece of that. I'll take Better than 76th for $100 Alex.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
Deal. $100.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
You make a fair point about the schedule. It’s not like last years defense was bad either it just seems like this years defense was better.
Another impressive thing about this years defense is how many points they scored on defensive TDs and Safeties. Not to mention how many short fields they set up the offense with.
lightning1
Well-Known Member
I'm not trying to take anything away from this years defense. I think they played well. I don't think they are better than last year's defense, though.
Last season's defense scored 1 more TD than this season's defense. FYI. I don't think people give last season's defense enough credit. If we had a moderately competent offense last season, we probably win 10 games.
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deanvogs
Well-Known Member
By taking a step forward I mean that they will average roughly the same YPG as this year while playing a tougher schedule. I even said Iowa will average between 380-400 yards, that is +/- 10 YPG from last year.
30 YPG less is not a HUGE step backyard, and I think you know it, especially considering they play a much tougher schedule next year. That isn't even a 10% drop off in YPG, while playing a 3x stronger schedule.
