Do we really lose that much next year?

[lightning1]

Sure our record says 8-4, but we could have easily had a record of 11-1 and headed to Indy. It didn’t happen for many reasons. Point being I think you can make an argument we are actually better than our record.

Sagarin ranks us as the 11th best team in the country, TeamRankings has us at 14. The outback bowl will be a good test to see if we really are that good.

Replacing guys is always tough. But the point of the OP is that it appears we have some talent ready to take over in the majority of the spots. The early departures are tough to sustain for any program but especially Iowa.

Yep. The early departures are the killers. I think Hockenson is gone. Not sure about Nelson or Hooker. I'm not even sure what grade Nelson would get. He's not the quickest or the strongest DE out there but he's damn good.

 

[4thngoal]

We will be fine. We lose some experience and darn good ball players, and I wish them all the best.
We have recruited well the last few years and that should start showing up as redshirts are now gone and it's their time to start putting it together.
Also, yes the schedule may be harder, but don't forget the "frustration". It only existed because everyone knew we were better than 8 wins and were a few plays away from proving it.

 

[deanvogs]

Defense will be good again next year. Maybe not as good as this year, but they will be a top 20 defense again.

Offense will take a step forward next year with the running game becoming more consistent and the passing game being better with Smith/Smith and Tracy. Tougher schedule though, so I see another 8 win season.

 

[1017HAWKSQUAD]

Defense will be good again next year. Maybe not as good as this year, but they will be a top 20 defense again.

Offense will take a step forward next year with the running game becoming more consistent and the passing game being better with Smith/Smith and Tracy. Tougher schedule though, so I see another 8 win season.

Hope it turns out this way or better. Schedule gets tougher for sure, I think the defense could be better (really need Hooker to stay) and the offense will need the new personnel on the interior OL to overachieve to have a good year. We will have to rely more on the running game next season with the TE's and Easley gone. I'm looking for the Smiths and others to show up in a big way next year to make up for losses.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Defense will be good again next year. Maybe not as good as this year, but they will be a top 20 defense again.

Offense will take a step forward next year with the running game becoming more consistent and the passing game being better with Smith/Smith and Tracy. Tougher schedule though, so I see another 8 win season.

Think of the lack of stability we had in the LB and Secondary groups this year due to injury. If Hooker returns both those groups I think could take a step forward next year. To me Nixon is the key. If he’s a dominant interior player I think the defense can be every bit as good if not better than this year.

Offense everyone seems to think will take a major step back. I have no clue if T.J. will stay or go and no question his loss would be huge as is Fant’s. I still think there are ways the offense can improve as you mentioned.

Predicting wins is just kind of silly to me. This year feels like more of a 10 win type team that lost every close game, maybe next year we catch a few breaks and win the close ones.

 

[deanvogs]

Think of the lack of stability we had in the LB and Secondary groups this year due to injury. If Hooker returns both those groups I think could take a step forward next year. To me Nixon is the key. If he’s a dominant interior player I think the defense can be every bit as good if not better than this year.

Offense everyone seems to think will take a major step back. I have no clue if T.J. will stay or go and no question his loss would be huge as is Fant’s. I still think there are ways the offense can improve as you mentioned.

Predicting wins is just kind of silly to me. This year feels like more of a 10 win type team that lost every close game, maybe next year we catch a few breaks and win the close ones.

I just don't worry about the Defense much anymore. I mean we got pretty questionable MLB play this year and still have a dominate defense. As you said we had injuries to our OLB spot and moved to a 4-2-5 defense. With Iowa defensively it has a lot to do with scheme and Iowa is just gonna be stingy almost no matter what on defense. They have a lot of good safety/$ type players in the program now, and this is gonna be very important moving forward. We will have basically 3 safeties on the field all the time, and even if Hooker leaves we have Stone, Merriweather, Craddieth, Ojemudia, and incoming Castro and Belton. If you look at it Phil wants another DB on the field that hits and tackles like a LB, and he has plenty of those on the roster.

I think offensively is the bigger question mark. I think that Brian is trying to transition from a run first team to a team that will pass to set up the ran more. They need to show that they can develop the WR better (Smith developed nicely this year), but now Smith-Marsette needs to show the same next year as well as bringing Tracy along in the slot to give us a real weapon there. If we are ever going to be more of a 9+ win team a year vs a 7-8 win team a year we need the offense to be better, more consistent.

 

[Caddy]

The offense will be worse without a doubt. Fant and Hockenson were the offense. We have no receiving threat at all. Sure ISM and Smith will make a play here and there, but nothing consistently that any defense will have to worry about. At running back, if Goodson is as good as advertised, then he should push for the starting job immediately. Our backs are very average, and none of them are a big play threat. I just don't see Stanley improving much at all. He is what he is at this point, as he has been in the program for 4 years. Defense, not really worried about other than the fact we need someone to step up at linebacker in a big way.

 

[deanvogs]

The offense will be worse without a doubt. Fant and Hockenson were the offense. We have no receiving threat at all. Sure ISM and Smith will make a play here and there, but nothing consistently that any defense will have to worry about. At running back, if Goodson is as good as advertised, then he should push for the starting job immediately. Our backs are very average, and none of them are a big play threat. I just don't see Stanley improving much at all. He is what he is at this point, as he has been in the program for 4 years. Defense, not really worried about other than the fact we need someone to step up at linebacker in a big way.

Same as it ever was with you. See last years our offense is gonna suck worse next year posts from you.

Same thing as last year. I see our offense as being worse. No Wadley to make a big play. The reason things got going when Young came in is because he can actually read a block, and NIU was simply worn out. Their defense was on the field the entire game. Our passing game is brutal. There is simply no talent at receiver. Stanley was inaccurate most of the day, and once again doesn't exhibit much pocket awareness. I see our defense struggling with the new lbs against any decent offense. Hopefully they will be good enough to keep us in some games because the offense isn't going to put up many points.

Even though you predicted our offense would be worse than 2017, we went from 330 YPG to 390 YPG.

Does it ever get old spewing the same old tired shit? I mean do you look back at your post so that you stay consistently stupid, or does that just happend by chance?

 

[lightning1]

Same as it ever was with you. See last years our offense is gonna suck worse next year posts from you.



Even though you predicted our offense would be worse than 2017, we went from 330 YPG to 390 YPG.

Does it ever get old spewing the same old tired shit? I mean do you look back at your post so that you stay consistently stupid, or does that just happend by chance?

Get a clue. If we have to replace Easly, Fant and Hockenson, along with a new Center and guard..........this offense WILL be worse. Only the really delusional believes otherwise.

 

[deanvogs]

Get a clue. If we have to replace Easly, Fant and Hockenson, along with a new Center and guard..........this offense WILL be worse. Only the really delusional believes otherwise.

We return a QB, 3 RB, 4 OL who have a lot of experience, and 2 WR. The only position group that really takes a hit is the TE position group, which is big. Yet that is college football, every year at least 1 or 2 position groups are going to get hit pretty hard to graduation/players leaving. Maybe we don't get to 400 YPG this year, but we aren't going to see a huge drop off from what we gained per game this year either.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Sure our record says 8-4, but we could have easily had a record of 11-1 and headed to Indy. It didn’t happen for many reasons. Point being I think you can make an argument we are actually better than our record.

Sagarin ranks us as the 11th best team in the country, TeamRankings has us at 14. The outback bowl will be a good test to see if we really are that good.

Replacing guys is always tough. But the point of the OP is that it appears we have some talent ready to take over in the majority of the spots. The early departures are tough to sustain for any program but especially Iowa.

Sorry, Nile but I gotta call you on this one. We are our record. Shoulda coulda woulda is for clones. It didn't happen because we weren't good enough to win those games. You could just as easily argue that we could easily have lost to ISU and Nebraska and be 6-6. It wasn't just the proverbial "breaks", fans love to lean on. It's all about making plays...you don't make 'em you're not that good. If we make the plays to go 11-1 then we are that good. We didn't.

 

[PCHawk]

Sorry, Nile but I gotta call you on this one. We are our record. Shoulda coulda woulda is for clones. It didn't happen because we weren't good enough to win those games. You could just as easily argue that we could easily have lost to ISU and Nebraska and be 6-6. It wasn't just the proverbial "breaks", fans love to lean on. It's all about making plays...you don't make 'em you're not that good. If we make the plays to go 11-1 then we are that good. We didn't.

Saying this is like saying if this team played this schedule 100 times, we would end up 8-4 every time. That's not the way sports work.

It's entirely possible that we are actually a worse team next year, play a tougher schedule, and still end up with a better record. Upsets are a huge part of sports, so I dont understand the logic that the better team always wins.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Sorry, Nile but I gotta call you on this one. We are our record. Shoulda coulda woulda is for clones. It didn't happen because we weren't good enough to win those games. You could just as easily argue that we could easily have lost to ISU and Nebraska and be 6-6. It wasn't just the proverbial "breaks", fans love to lean on. It's all about making plays...you don't make 'em you're not that good. If we make the plays to go 11-1 then we are that good. We didn't.

Iowa wasn’t good in close games, I don’t dispute that. However, teams overperform or underperform their records all the time.

I’ll give you a perfect example from an Iowa team of the past. In 2008 Iowa finished the regular season 8-4, however the 4 losses were by a combined 12 points. This was Shonn Greene’s monster season at Iowa. By the end of that season Iowa steamrolled Minnesota 55-0 in the final game and started the Outback bowl up 31-0. So while the record said 9-4 after the bowl win, that was likely a much better team.

Following that year I’m sure some fans similar to the ones in this thread said “No way will Iowa replace Shonn Greene’s 1,800+ yards and the losses of Andy Brodell and Brandon Meyers, who accounted for over 40% of our pass offense. The offense will take a step back. On defense they lost King, Kroul, and Bradley Fletcher (3rd round pick).”

Only thing is Iowa replaced it and then some. They went on to an 11-2 season and BCS bowl win the following year, and as we know without a fluke injury to Stanzi who knows what could have happened.

Point being that 2008 team was likely better than their record, similar to what I think this years team is. The outback bowl if it goes poorly could change my opinion on that.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Get a clue. If we have to replace Easly, Fant and Hockenson, along with a new Center and guard..........this offense WILL be worse. Only the really delusional believes otherwise.

We return a QB, 3 RB, 4 OL who have a lot of experience, and 2 WR. The only position group that really takes a hit is the TE position group, which is big. Yet that is college football, every year at least 1 or 2 position groups are going to get hit pretty hard to graduation/players leaving. Maybe we don't get to 400 YPG this year, but we aren't going to see a huge drop off from what we gained per game this year either.

That’s the great thing about sports. Nobody knows what will actually happen until the games are actually played.

Look at this year for example. We lose Jackson, Jewell, and Niemann and everyone is probably expecting the defense to take a step back and particularly the losses at linebacker would noticeable. Only thing is we ended up being a better defense this year because we had a loaded Dline and Hooker as a special player in the secondary to make up for the linebacker losses and the loss of Jackson.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Iowa wasn’t good in close games, I don’t dispute that. However, teams overperform or underperform their records all the time.

I’ll give you a perfect example from an Iowa team of the past. In 2008 Iowa finished the regular season 8-4, however the 4 losses were by a combined 12 points. This was Shonn Greene’s monster season at Iowa. By the end of that season Iowa steamrolled Minnesota 55-0 in the final game and started the Outback bowl up 31-0. So while the record said 9-4 after the bowl win, that was likely a much better team.

Following that year I’m sure some fans similar to the ones in this thread said “No way will Iowa replace Shonn Greene’s 1,800+ yards and the losses of Andy Brodell and Brandon Meyers, who accounted for over 40% of our pass offense. The offense will take a step back. On defense they lost King, Kroul, and Bradley Fletcher (3rd round pick).”

Only thing is Iowa replaced it and then some. They went on to an 11-2 season and BCS bowl win the following year, and as we know without a fluke injury to Stanzi who knows what could have happened.

Point being that 2008 team was likely better than their record, similar to what I think this years team is. The outback bowl if it goes poorly could change my opinion on that.

I hear what you're saying. All 8-4 records aren't equal. Fair enough. But your record is the ultimate representation of your performance. Beating Penn St, Wisconsin and Purdue would have proven we were a much better team. But we didn't and we weren't.

 

[Xerxes]

Sorry, Nile but I gotta call you on this one. We are our record. Shoulda coulda woulda is for clones. It didn't happen because we weren't good enough to win those games. You could just as easily argue that we could easily have lost to ISU and Nebraska and be 6-6. It wasn't just the proverbial "breaks", fans love to lean on. It's all about making plays...you don't make 'em you're not that good. If we make the plays to go 11-1 then we are that good. We didn't.

The wonderful thing about facts is they don’t care about bias or feelings. Fact is Iowa won 8 and lost 4.

Iowa won some close games and lost some close games. Did it even out in the end? I guessing most Iowa fans say no. We don’t want to think about barely beating the worst Nebraska team I’ve ever seen. That doesn’t get a lot of play here but the close losses do. That’s the nature of being a fan I guess.

At some point you just have to perform. Iowa didn’t do that when it counted this year

 

[HawkeyeDenis]

The third year is a point where a lot of players really take control of their positions. Iowa has been building a lot of these guys for 2 years and next year is their time to shine.

On the positive, the running backs, Toren Young, Sargent, look good, ready to break out good. Iowa should be solid at center and tackles. The guards will be new but not inexperienced. Given that the running game might improve. And that will be a big help for Stanley.

On the negative side, the receiving corps takes a hit with Fant and Easley leaving and possibly Hockenson. Replacing Fant and Hockenson is going to be a step back. Hockenson staying is a big help to the offensive line and the receiving corps. He is an outstanding all around blocking receiving tight end.

Hooker is a probable loss. There are guys who can step into that position. Hesse was an great asset for Iowa. He will probably never make the next level but he is a football smart guy that always seemed to make the play.

The defensive line will be fine. AJ is going to dominate. I don't see how he doesn't draw attention anytime he is on the field. That can only help with the other positions. The linebackers are more experienced and getting better. The defensive backs are all experienced.
Overall I am positive on next years team.

 

[NikeHawk21]

The wonderful thing about facts is they don’t care about bias or feelings. Fact is Iowa won 8 and lost 4.

Iowa won some close games and lost some close games. Did it even out in the end? I guessing most Iowa fans say no. We don’t want to think about barely beating the worst Nebraska team I’ve ever seen. That doesn’t get a lot of play here but the close losses do. That’s the nature of being a fan I guess.

At some point you just have to perform. Iowa didn’t do that when it counted this year

That’s the worst Nebraska team you’ve ever seen? Seems odd considering they had won 4 of their last 5 going into that Iowa game and the only loss was a 5 point loss at Ohio State. Last years Neb team was noticeably worse especially by the time the Hawks got them, but I suppose that doesn’t fit your narrative.

It’s funny you guys saying our record is what it is at 8-4 are probably the same guys who said the 2015 team wasn’t as good as their record (they weren’t).

 

[NikeHawk21]

I hear what you're saying. All 8-4 records aren't equal. Fair enough. But your record is the ultimate representation of your performance. Beating Penn St, Wisconsin and Purdue would have proven we were a much better team. But we didn't and we weren't.

Iowa has one more chance to prove how good they are. If they look good against MSU and win I’ll continue to believe they were probably better than their final record.

If they don’t I’ll start to move toward your camp of believing that’s just who they are.

 

[Xerxes]

That’s the worst Nebraska team you’ve ever seen? Seems odd considering they had won 4 of their last 5 going into that Iowa game and the only loss was a 5 point loss at Ohio State. Last years Neb team was noticeably worse especially by the time the Hawks got them, but I suppose that doesn’t fit your narrative.

It’s funny you guys saying our record is what it is at 8-4 are probably the same guys who said the 2015 team wasn’t as good as their record (they weren’t).

I don’t have a narrative. I didn’t say a word about Iowa being as good, better, or worse than their record. I can’t argue with their record.

And in 5 close games they performed well enough to win in 1 of those games. Again a fact I can’t argue with. They also beat the piss out of some teams and avioded some close games. Add all that up and we’re back the the fact of 8-4.