Do we really lose that much next year?

N

NikeHawk21

Well-Known Member
Assuming that Fant is the only early departure for a second (that might be a big assumption), how much do we really lose and what do we replace them with? (Fant is a big loss, I’m not debating that)

Two OL (Render, Reynolds) - Both quality players, I don’t think either were world beaters. Iowa really couldn’t run the ball this year. We have some other guys with experience behind them and some others with potential. I’ll say slight loss here.

Easley - Had a good Junior season. This year he didn’t do a ton. Tracy seems like the logical replacement and potentially could be more of a gamebreaker threat. I’ll say slight loss but wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t felt much.

Fant - Big Loss

Hesse - really a high quality player and great Hawk. His replacement however is a future top 15 pick. AJE will have to improve against the run but I think he can. I’d say no loss to slight gain here.

DTs (M Nelson & Brincks) - Both quality players. Replacements Reiff and Lattimore have plenty of experience. Nixon the wild card. I’ll say slight loss here primarily due to loss of depth moreso than talent.

Hockaday - Did an admirable job filling in this year but there was times you could see why it took him so long to find play time. I actually think Welch is a better player. No loss here.

Gervase - Quality player at safety, knew where to be. Again assuming Hooker stays and Geno slides over into this spot I think we actually have an upgrade here. Geno just seems to have a knack for the ball.

Outside of Fant it looks like a few slight losses, and some slight gains in positions where a more talented player looks to take over next year. Add to that the potential growth of young players. Again the potential early departures are where we might feel some pain, but the point being while we may lose “9” starters, to me it doesn’t really feel that way.
 
Defense should be just as good if not better next year. That's a good thing because the Offense might take a sizable step back.

If we couldn't run the ball this year, I wouldn't get my hopes up for next season. Render had a lot of experience at Center coming into this season. Unfortunately, nobody that returns next year has that kind of experience at that position. Will Banwart surprise us? Will Linderbaum be an instant superstar?

If Hockenson leaves early (I think he's an idiot if he doesn't), that means we've lost a shit ton of our offense along with Fant. Phil Parker has done a good job producing a good defense when he has to replace a ton of talent, but Brian can't even do it when he has 2 NFL tight ends, junior QB, and an OL loaded with experience.

BTW, at least one of the three guys on the radio program Rob was on thought A Jackson would leave early. I don't think that will happen, but if it does... :(
 
tksirius said:
Defense should be just as good if not better next year. That's a good thing because the Offense might take a sizable step back.

If we couldn't run the ball this year, I wouldn't get my hopes up for next season. Render had a lot of experience at Center coming into this season. Unfortunately, nobody that returns next year has that kind of experience at that position. Will Banwart surprise us? Will Linderbaum be an instant superstar?

If Hockenson leaves early (I think he's an idiot if he doesn't), that means we've lost a shit ton of our offense along with Fant. Phil Parker has done a good job producing a good defense when he has to replace a ton of talent, but Brian can't even do it when he has 2 NFL tight ends, junior QB, and an OL loaded with experience.

BTW, at least one of the three guys on the radio program Rob was on thought A Jackson would leave early. I don't think that will happen, but if it does... :(
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I think you make some fair points. Defense should again be very solid. Offense will be the question mark.

Could ISM, Smith, and maybe Tracy step up and replace Fant’s production? Maybe. Can Stanley improve his accuracy and decision making? I hope. I’m holding out hope that T.J. returns, but who really knows at this point.

As far as the running game I think Sargent as the established guy can improve it. I really don’t think IKM is very good at all. Just didn’t seem to have the vision or patience. Could Goodson add something to the offense? It’s unlikely but one can dream.
 
A couple of assumptions need to be challenged here.

First, I could be wrong, but I believe Iowa would like to play a 8-man rotation on the DL to keep players fresh. So the question is not whether AJE will be better than Hesse. The question is, who will replace Hesse in the 8-man rotation, and will he be better than Hesse?

Also the assumption that Geno Stone simply replaces Gervase is misleading because Stone in a sense was already starting when Iowa was in its 4-2-5 package, where the extra DB was Stone. And Iowa considers the 4-2-5 its primary formation now, although they will still play 4-3 in certain situations. So the real question is, who will replace Gervase in the 4-2-5 ?
 
guffus said:
A couple of assumptions need to be challenged here.

First, I could be wrong, but I believe Iowa would like to play a 8-man rotation on the DL to keep players fresh. So the question is not whether AJE will be better than Hesse. The question is, who will replace Hesse in the 8-man rotation, and will he be better than Hesse?

Also the assumption that Geno Stone simply replaces Gervase is misleading because Stone in a sense was already starting when Iowa was in its 4-2-5 package, where the extra DB was Stone. And Iowa considers the 4-2-5 its primary formation now, although they will still play 4-3 in certain situations. So the real question is, who will replace Gervase in the 4-2-5 ?
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I think I could turn around and challenge both of those assumptions.

While any team would like to have 8 quality dlinemen they could rotate, that’s really not likely most years. We should have at least 6 quality players on the Dline (Assuming Nelson stays) we can roatate next year, so our depth should be fine. I don’t see our Dline taking much of a step back next year, and could see it being better if all goes well.

Iowa played more nickel (4-2-5) defense due to injuries and because they had the perfect player to do it in Hooker. If you really think that’s the permanent defense you’re fooling yourself. Do you think they told Jestin Jacobs we only are playing 2 linebackers from here on out? They’ll use it for certain matchups and in certain down and distances I’m sure as any football team does. But to answer your question if Hooker remains as a nickel corner / hybrid linebacker next year I think Dallas Craddieth will be still be an upgrade at safety over Gervase.
 
tksirius said:
Defense should be just as good if not better next year. That's a good thing because the Offense might take a sizable step back.

If we couldn't run the ball this year, I wouldn't get my hopes up for next season. Render had a lot of experience at Center coming into this season. Unfortunately, nobody that returns next year has that kind of experience at that position. Will Banwart surprise us? Will Linderbaum be an instant superstar?

If Hockenson leaves early (I think he's an idiot if he doesn't), that means we've lost a shit ton of our offense along with Fant. Phil Parker has done a good job producing a good defense when he has to replace a ton of talent, but Brian can't even do it when he has 2 NFL tight ends, junior QB, and an OL loaded with experience.

BTW, at least one of the three guys on the radio program Rob was on thought A Jackson would leave early. I don't think that will happen, but if it does... :(
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Jackson is not leaving early. Read somewhere he didn't know who said his name was up for leaving early, but that it was wrong.

Banwart will be solid, as he filled in for Ferguson in the back half of the year and shored that spot up well.

As usual, we'll pull somebody put of the woodwork to fill out the rest of the OL. One of the Paulsens has lots of game experience and has played well, the other will still be a Sr. Linderbaum has high upside, as does Kallenberger. Lots of options.
 
BVHawk95 said:
Jackson is not leaving early. Read somewhere he didn't know who said his name was up for leaving early, but that it was wrong.

Banwart will be solid, as he filled in for Ferguson in the back half of the year and shored that spot up well.

As usual, we'll pull somebody put of the woodwork to fill out the rest of the OL. One of the Paulsens has lots of game experience and has played well, the other will still be a Sr. Linderbaum has high upside, as does Kallenberger. Lots of options.
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Assuming we return both tackles, I’m wondering if MK will slide inside to a guard spot next year. I know BF said he didn’t want to do that this year. I have to imagine he will be one of our 5 best linemen next year, it would be nice to get him on the field.
 
Is it a foregone conclusion that A Nelson is coming back? If he's back I'm not remotely worried about the D. Pairing him with AJE full time is just scary for the other teams... Huge advantage for us if he does.

Offensively replacing both TEs (until Hock declares one way or the other I'm assuming he's leaving because he pretty much should go) will be tough. Like NikeHawk said the Oline won't be worse than this year I think they'll be better if anything. The Paulson twins will be seniors I'm going to assume one of them will start next yr and it shouldn't be a surprise if they both do. They should be ready to go having been in the program this long.

There's a few WRs coming up that will be in the running for replacing Easley. Will any of them separate themselves early enough to make a difference early next yr? We'll see.... I'm hoping for big things from Smith and ISM. (For the record I kinda was this year too so take that for what it's worth)
 
We lose 5 of our 11 starters on each side, from an 8-4 team that had an easy schedule. Next year's schedule is going to be much more difficult. I think the offense is going to go back on the struggle bus next year. Especially if Hockenson goes, which I think is likely.
 
KR/PR - Groeneweg
S - Gervase
LB/ST - Mends
DE - Hesse
FB - Kelly
MLB - Hockaday
OG - Reynolds
C - Render
OG - Ferguson
WR - Easley
DT - Brinks
K - Recinos
DT - Matt Nelson
TE - Fant
TE - Hockenson (maybe)
S - Hooker (Maybe)
DE - A. Nelson (maybe)
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Assuming that Fant is the only early departure for a second (that might be a big assumption), how much do we really lose and what do we replace them with? (Fant is a big loss, I’m not debating that)

Two OL (Render, Reynolds) - Both quality players, I don’t think either were world beaters. Iowa really couldn’t run the ball this year. We have some other guys with experience behind them and some others with potential. I’ll say slight loss here.

Easley - Had a good Junior season. This year he didn’t do a ton. Tracy seems like the logical replacement and potentially could be more of a gamebreaker threat. I’ll say slight loss but wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t felt much.

Fant - Big Loss

Hesse - really a high quality player and great Hawk. His replacement however is a future top 15 pick. AJE will have to improve against the run but I think he can. I’d say no loss to slight gain here.

DTs (M Nelson & Brincks) - Both quality players. Replacements Reiff and Lattimore have plenty of experience. Nixon the wild card. I’ll say slight loss here primarily due to loss of depth moreso than talent.

Hockaday - Did an admirable job filling in this year but there was times you could see why it took him so long to find play time. I actually think Welch is a better player. No loss here.

Gervase - Quality player at safety, knew where to be. Again assuming Hooker stays and Geno slides over into this spot I think we actually have an upgrade here. Geno just seems to have a knack for the ball.

Outside of Fant it looks like a few slight losses, and some slight gains in positions where a more talented player looks to take over next year. Add to that the potential growth of young players. Again the potential early departures are where we might feel some pain, but the point being while we may lose “9” starters, to me it doesn’t really feel that way.
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Well Hockenson and probably Hooker are gonna be gone too.
 
Hawkfnntn said:
Is it a foregone conclusion that A Nelson is coming back? If he's back I'm not remotely worried about the D. Pairing him with AJE full time is just scary for the other teams... Huge advantage for us if he does.

Offensively replacing both TEs (until Hock declares one way or the other I'm assuming he's leaving because he pretty much should go) will be tough. Like NikeHawk said the Oline won't be worse than this year I think they'll be better if anything. The Paulson twins will be seniors I'm going to assume one of them will start next yr and it shouldn't be a surprise if they both do. They should be ready to go having been in the program this long.

There's a few WRs coming up that will be in the running for replacing Easley. Will any of them separate themselves early enough to make a difference early next yr? We'll see.... I'm hoping for big things from Smith and ISM. (For the record I kinda was this year too so take that for what it's worth)
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And don’t forget about Chauncey Golston. That’s a three headed monster at DE.
 
lightning1 said:
KR/PR - Groeneweg
S - Gervase
LB/ST - Mends
DE - Hesse
FB - Kelly
MLB - Hockaday
OG - Reynolds
C - Render
OG - Ferguson
WR - Easley
DT - Brinks
K - Recinos
DT - Matt Nelson
TE - Fant
TE - Hockenson (maybe)
S - Hooker (Maybe)
DE - A. Nelson (maybe)
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Barnwart is listed as the starter at guard. He returns. Again many of those losses, save the potential early departures, are replaceable.
 
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We probably won’t know the effects of players Iowa is losing until we’re 3/4 games into next season. Hard to gauge losses like Hesse, Gervase, Render, Nelson, & Brinks. They don’t put up flashy stuff but they do their jobs well so others can be successful.

It’s particularly cloudy now because Iowa has so many guys on the fence.

It’s always tricky losing a kicker. And for Iowa their C position is always vital. And D positions in the middle like MLB & S. Don’t like those losses.

If Iowa only losses Hock, that will be a gift.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
And don’t forget about Chauncey Golston. That’s a three headed monster at DE.
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No doubt I think he'd be a solid player if A Nelson were to go but having him as the 3rd is a luxury we'll gladly take. I wonder how ready to go the WDM kid that redshirted this year may be come next yr too? He may get his feet wet some
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Barnwart is listed as the starter at guard. He returns. Again many of those losses, save the potential early departures, are replaceable.
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They're all replaceable. The question is: are their replacements going to be as good? better? Worse? Even if they are just as good, the schedule is much harder. How much better does every replacement have to be, in order to simply match 8 wins with next season's schedule?
 
lightning1 said:
We lose 5 of our 11 starters on each side, from an 8-4 team that had an easy schedule. Next year's schedule is going to be much more difficult. I think the offense is going to go back on the struggle bus next year. Especially if Hockenson goes, which I think is likely.
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Sure our record says 8-4, but we could have easily had a record of 11-1 and headed to Indy. It didn’t happen for many reasons. Point being I think you can make an argument we are actually better than our record.

Sagarin ranks us as the 11th best team in the country, TeamRankings has us at 14. The outback bowl will be a good test to see if we really are that good.

Replacing guys is always tough. But the point of the OP is that it appears we have some talent ready to take over in the majority of the spots. The early departures are tough to sustain for any program but especially Iowa.
 
lightning1 said:
They're all replaceable. The question is: are their replacements going to be as good? better? Worse? Even if they are just as good, the schedule is much harder. How much better does every replacement have to be, in order to simply match 8 wins with next season's schedule?
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I kind of spelled that out in my OP. I think we could see improved play at MLB, Safety, DE, and similar or potentially better play at WR, DT, and Oline. Will all those things happen? Unlikely.
 
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