Cubbbbbbies
- Thread starter hawkfarmer
- Start date
garza is young, cheap, talented, and under team control. it is going to take a major haul to get garza from the cubs as he is a major cog in their future plans.
The wife is a Cub's fan, so I have been legally obligated to suffer through this mess of a season. There does not seem to be a whole lot of light at the end of the tunnel, I think they need to tear down and rebuild.
In my opinion, the most obvious trade candidate is Carlos Marmol. A dominant closer is absolutely worthless on a team that can't get him the ball in the 9th with the lead. However, he would have tremendous value for teams in contention. They should be able to trade him for some quality prospects.
By the time the Cubs return to respectability, hopefully they can come up with another closer. They have some young, power arms in their bullpen right now. And if none of the in-house options work out, smart teams (which hopefully the Cubs can become) can always find a guy to get the job done. Look at past leaders in saves, you will see a lot more Everyday Eddie Guardados than Mariano Riveras on that list.
In my opinion, the most obvious trade candidate is Carlos Marmol. A dominant closer is absolutely worthless on a team that can't get him the ball in the 9th with the lead. However, he would have tremendous value for teams in contention. They should be able to trade him for some quality prospects.
By the time the Cubs return to respectability, hopefully they can come up with another closer. They have some young, power arms in their bullpen right now. And if none of the in-house options work out, smart teams (which hopefully the Cubs can become) can always find a guy to get the job done. Look at past leaders in saves, you will see a lot more Everyday Eddie Guardados than Mariano Riveras on that list.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Guess I'm not sure what you see in Fukudome that I don't.. The Cubs are paying an awful lot of money for a player with a .262 career average and a slugging average just barely over .400. I keep thinking the guy has potential, but how many years in a row can we watch him hit .330 in April and .220 the rest of the year before concluding that he just is what he is - an average major leaguer?
I'd rather see the Cubs keep Ramirez than Fukudome.. Atleast Ramirez seems like he can still hit and is more bang for the buck. I don't want to see the Cubs pay Ramirez $15 million for another 6-7 years. If they can get him shorter term (maybe 3-4 years), I'd be good with that.
In my eyes, Fukudome has been a complete bust. Plus, he's 34 now. How much better do you think he will get in the next few years? If I was a betting man, I'd say he will decline rather than improve as he passes age 35.
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DuffMan
Well-Known Member
You just don't trade the most dominant closer in the NL, especially when he's as young and cheap as he is.
Closers are overrated, unless that is the only piece you are missing. And I would disagree with most dominant closer in NL statement. If looking at traditional stats, Marmol ranks as follows among qualifying NL relievers (according to Fangraphs):
11th SVs
1st in blown saves
24th in ERA
44th in WHIP
By advanced metrics:
22nd in Fielding-Independent Pitching
11th in WAR
Sean Marshall ranks ahead of him in every category. I agree he has dominant stuff, and for that stuff contenders would pay royally, but that stuff is doing very little to win games for the Cubs right now, and that will probably not change in the immediate future.
In terms of him being cheap, that makes him an even more attractive trade piece, which should allow the Cubs to ask for even more in a trade.
DuffMan
Well-Known Member
You can take all your advanced metrics and pound sand. I don't care what your WHIP is when you strike out nearly two men an inning. The NL hasn't finished a season hitting higher than .170 off of him since 2006 and his career ERA since he wen't into the bullpen full time is near 2.54.
I don't care what the cubs are doing right now, under no circumstances do you trade a lighouts out closer for prospects. It's just proposterous.
I don't care what the cubs are doing right now, under no circumstances do you trade a lighouts out closer for prospects. It's just proposterous.
Blown saves, a category in which Marmol leads the NL, certainly is not an advanced metric.
This Forbes article from a couple of years ago sums up my feeling on the closer role. Someone who pitches less than 5% of a team's innings just is not worth much in the grand scheme. Now if you are a playoff team and the closer is the difference between being bumped in the divisional round vs. a world series title, worth changes. But for a team floundering near the bottom of their division, a dominant closer is not going to add many wins, at least compared to a starting pitcher or a position player.
I am a Twins fan, and over the past 2 decades they have demonstrated that smart teams can find closers. They have consistently turned former starters/long-relievers into all-star quality closers. They did this first with Rick Aguilera, then Eddie Guardado, and most recently with Joe Nathan. Their bullpen is sputtering right now because Nathan's blown elbow last year forced them to make a move to get an all-star closer, trading their top minor league prospect for the National's Matt Capps to help them for the playoffs. Now all of a sudden Capps sucks (as many "closers" do after a BRIEF period of dominance), and they have enough money tied up in him that they have lost overall bullpen depth.
The Twins were obligated to roll the dice because they were a playoff team, and as a result the Nationals were able to poach a talented young catcher. Perhaps the Cubs can emulate the Nationals and use Marmol to improve their future.
This Forbes article from a couple of years ago sums up my feeling on the closer role. Someone who pitches less than 5% of a team's innings just is not worth much in the grand scheme. Now if you are a playoff team and the closer is the difference between being bumped in the divisional round vs. a world series title, worth changes. But for a team floundering near the bottom of their division, a dominant closer is not going to add many wins, at least compared to a starting pitcher or a position player.
I am a Twins fan, and over the past 2 decades they have demonstrated that smart teams can find closers. They have consistently turned former starters/long-relievers into all-star quality closers. They did this first with Rick Aguilera, then Eddie Guardado, and most recently with Joe Nathan. Their bullpen is sputtering right now because Nathan's blown elbow last year forced them to make a move to get an all-star closer, trading their top minor league prospect for the National's Matt Capps to help them for the playoffs. Now all of a sudden Capps sucks (as many "closers" do after a BRIEF period of dominance), and they have enough money tied up in him that they have lost overall bullpen depth.
The Twins were obligated to roll the dice because they were a playoff team, and as a result the Nationals were able to poach a talented young catcher. Perhaps the Cubs can emulate the Nationals and use Marmol to improve their future.
Ikeasaurus
Well-Known Member
How many times can Cub fans dwell over this?
Just a shade over a century at this point. Although, I can only speculate on most of that because I was not diagnosed with the Cubs virus until about 34 years ago.
woodyk1
Well-Known Member
Cubs promote 2 prospects to AAA.
Chicago Cubs promote Brett Jackson, Ryan Flaherty, source says - ESPN Chicago
Chicago Cubs promote Brett Jackson, Ryan Flaherty, source says - ESPN Chicago
HawkeyeMike23
Banned
For the right prospects, everyone on the Cubs outside of Castro should be available. If the Cubs can get a team in the pennant race to over pay for Marmol, and send a couple of high level prospects in return, the Cubs should do that deal in a second.
Anyone think this means the Cubs might trade an outfielder or two soon? I can always hope right? I say bring Jackson and Flaherty to Des Moines for a couple of weeks, and if all goes well, let's see what they can do in Chicago. They certainly couldn't be any worse.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
I assume they'll both be up in September. I wouldn't mind seeing a complete over haul of the outfield. I think you should keep Byrd, but I hope he doesn't have to hit 3 or 4, maybe 5 or 6 would be best for him.
They say Jackson is a potential 20-20 guy, but that might take a while. Vitters might get a call up as well. They have high hopes for him, but he hasn't shown it yet (injured a lot too)
I think it depends on who gets moved in the next couple of weeks. Hendry claims he is not holding a fire sale, but I think that's just talk so people don't try to rob him blind at the trade deadline. With so many teams in contention, the market should be decent this year. But this is Hendry we're talking about, so who knows where the Cubs will end up. If multiple outfielders get moved, we will see at least one of them before September call ups.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
Colvin is starting to turn it around at Iowa. He's up to .271 after a slow start. I think Baker is an attractive trade candidate so he could be gone as well. I'm just excited to see what Jackson can do. It's kind of like those years when we Hawk fans wanted to see the backup QB instead of our regular starter. You make a good argument though. I may need to wait until September.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
I agree they may have a need, but I would like them to adjust to AAA for a little while before the call up. Baker has trade potential agreed and I think he could go. I know Colvin is doing better and that's why I'm saying he could be back up before Jackson is.
ColumbusHawk
Well-Known Member
The Cubs are not that bad when Dempster, Garza or Zambrano is the starting pitcher. I saw a stat just before the break that the Cubs are two games over .500 when these three are the starting pitcher.
Just shows how bad Coleman, Davis, Wells, etc. are or were in the case of Davis. Just pathetic starting pitcher. It looks like Wells is afraid to throw a strike.
Just shows how bad Coleman, Davis, Wells, etc. are or were in the case of Davis. Just pathetic starting pitcher. It looks like Wells is afraid to throw a strike.
hawkfarmer
Well-Known Member
The cubs option Chris Carpenter, a very good young reliever, to Iowa to make room for Z (8 ER in 4 2/3) and place 38 year old, no future, Ramon Ortiz in the pen. It's over cubs, let your young guys play and get some experience. Oh, and please please trade somebody soon.
