Could an undefeated Iowa get hosed by the selection committee?

paulzoss said:
I hope you're right, but it’s easy to just say by fiat that there is no way an undefeated Big Ten winner gets left out. In a fair and just world, that would always be true, but you still have to do the math. If ND is in the top 4 tomorrow, the committee will have already taken into consideration the fact that they have lost a game to Clemson. If ND wins out, for Iowa to jump them, the committee would have to conclude our win over the Big Ten East champion improved our resume enough to overtake ND in the face of their hypothetical win over Stanford. Is that really going to happen? ND has a lot of clout. Otherwise, if Clemson and Alabama are in, the only other way we’d get in would be to jump the Oklahoma State/Baylor winner, assuming one or both is ranked higher than Iowa the polls leading up to the final selections. Maybe that would be our path to the final four, but would that really be a given, in light of the committee chairman's ignorant comments comparing Baylor's offense with ours? Of course, if any of these teams stumble over the next few weeks, it would change everything.
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Actually, in a fair and just world, the Big 10 wouldn't always get in. If a Big 10 school gets in undeservingly because of the power of the conference, it wouldn't be fair and just. No conference should automatically get a bid based on prestige. I'm looking at you SEC.
 
HawkInATX said:
Look at the selection criteria from the CFP committee:

Principles. The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Conference championships won,
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance

Therefore, when it comes down to nearly equal teams, conference championships matter. A 1 loss ND does not and can not have a championship, meaning it can not compete in the CFP rankings against an undefeated Power 5 team.

As for the Pac-12 not getting in, you are covered under common opponents. Iowa and Stanford (really the only Pac-12 team that has a shot at the playoffs) has a loss to a common opponent as Iowa (northwestern) which Iowa beat. Therefore, an undefeated Iowa will be in the playoffs. Logic enough?
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That's very logical. Can you go and share that info with the selection committee please? If you fill them in on their own criteria, we will probably be ranked 2nd tomorrow since we have the 2nd best resume to date.
 
PCHawk said:
Actually, in a fair and just world, the Big 10 wouldn't always get in. If a Big 10 school gets in undeservingly because of the power of the conference, it wouldn't be fair and just. No conference should automatically get a bid based on prestige. I'm looking at you SEC.
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I agree with everything you say, but I said an undefeated Big Ten winner should always get in. You could even argue about the one-loss Alabama team getting in over an undefeated Iowa, but that horse has already left the barn.
 
The odds of it happening are really slim but what if there are 4 undefeated power 5 teams and ND is undefeated? That's why I hate statements like "an undefeated Big 10 team will always be in".
 
PCHawk said:
Actually, in a fair and just world, the Big 10 wouldn't always get in. If a Big 10 school gets in undeservingly because of the power of the conference, it wouldn't be fair and just. No conference should automatically get a bid based on prestige. I'm looking at you SEC.
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You are just so politically correct.
 
Always too early to worry about something beyond your control.

Undefeated B1G team won't be left out. But Iowa is the perfect sacrificial lamb if it were to happen.
 
PCHawk said:
I wish people would give logical reasons why Iowa would get in over those 4 instead of just saying the Big 10 will never get left out. Ohio State would never get left out. Michigan would never get left out. Why would Iowa never get left out? Notre Dame is probably the biggest name school there is, but Iowa is going to knock them out no doubt about it huh?
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You do realize that if Iowa were to win the B1G CCG over an undefeated, defending nat'l Champion with like 23 straight wins, that THAT would be the biggest win of the SEASON for any team...If that were to happen, there is unequivocally no friggen way Iowa gets left out of the Playoffs.

The story will be a bit dicier if it were a win over msu or Mich...
 
ColoradoHAWKEYE said:
You do realize that if Iowa were to win the B1G CCG over an undefeated, defending nat'l Champion with like 23 straight wins, that THAT would be the biggest win of the SEASON for any team...If that were to happen, there is unequivocally no friggen way Iowa gets left out of the Playoffs.

The story will be a bit dicier if it were a win over msu or Mich...
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How is that a bigger win than Alabama over LSU or Oklahoma State over TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma? They sure aren't dropping number 1 to 5 so Clemson is a lock if they win out. ND doesn't need quality wins to get in. All they need to do is win enough to give the committee an excuse to put them in.
 
Just to be clear, I'm not saying we will for sure be left out if the exact wrong scenario plays out. I just don't think "the Big 10 gets in no matter how the rest of the country's gsmes play out" is a very well thought out arguement. The people who say we need the Big 10 Championship to be against OSU must agree with me.
 
All I know is if an undefeated Baylor gets in above an undefeated Iowa it sets a bad precadent. It basically means noncon doesn't matter.
 
PCHawk said:
Just to be clear, I'm not saying we will for sure be left out if the exact wrong scenario plays out. I just don't think "the Big 10 gets in no matter how the rest of the country's gsmes play out" is a very well thought out arguement. The people who say we need the Big 10 Championship to be against OSU must agree with me.
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I get what you are saying... but there are a lot of history, politics, ect at play here.

I just can't see it happening.


However it's still a longshot to happen anyway on Iowa's side.

We have a good shot to get to the championship game. And a more than reasonable chance to get their undefeated.

But to get to 13-0... not impossible but... I believe Vegas had it as an 8% chance.
 
pmchawk said:
All I know is if an undefeated Baylor gets in above an undefeated Iowa it sets a bad precadent. It basically means noncon doesn't matter.
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Baylor lost their QB... barely beat a bad KSU team.

Baylor is probably going to lose more than one game down the stretch.
 
Bigtenchamp said:
I get what you are saying... but there are a lot of history, politics, ect at play here.

I just can't see it happening.


However it's still a longshot to happen anyway on Iowa's side.

We have a good shot to get to the championship game. And a more than reasonable chance to get their undefeated.

But to get to 13-0... not impossible but... I believe Vegas had it as an 8% chance.
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The history and politics is what scares me about ND. Not so much their resume.
 
If you are in favor of an eventual 8 team playoff, there would be no bigger argument than to have an undefeated Big Ten Champion get left out for a 12-1 SEC team or an 11-1 Notre Dame.
 
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