Could an undefeated Iowa get hosed by the selection committee?

[PCHawk]

Nate Silver Agrees.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...l-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/

The article said Iowa has a 91% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. That's a far cry from "an undefeated Big 10 team will never ever get left out of the playoffs".

It seems to me that the odds of Alabama, ND, Clemson, and one Big 12 school all winning out has got to take up a good portion of the other 9%. That means the likelihood of Iowa making the playoffs if those 4 teams all win out are close to 0%.

 

[paulzoss]

This guy thinks we might have trouble:
http://espn.go.com/college-football...-shape-college-football-playoff-contenders-in

 

[hwk23]

The article said Iowa has a 91% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. That's a far cry from "an undefeated Big 10 team will never ever get left out of the playoffs".

It seems to me that the odds of Alabama, ND, Clemson, and one Big 12 school all winning out has got to take up a good portion of the other 9%. That means the likelihood of Iowa making the playoffs if those 4 teams all win out are close to 0%.

ND only has a 71% chance if they win out. Somehow 1 loss Stanford has a 94% chance if they win out. Me thinks his model doesn't make a lot of sense but is a fancy way to give his opinion.

 

[ssckelley]

I hope those of you that doubted me about Notre Dame being a lock if they win out watched this Playoff show.

I'm loving IOWA got moved up to 5, but if they get in it won't be at the expense of ND.

 

[PCHawk]

ND only has a 71% chance if they win out. Somehow 1 loss Stanford has a 94% chance if they win out. Me thinks his model doesn't make a lot of sense but is a fancy way to give his opinion.

Yea that doesn't make sense at all. ND has a better chance of getting in than Stanford does I would think.

 

[PCHawk]

I hope those of you that doubted me about Notre Dame being a lock if they win out watched this Playoff show.

I'm loving IOWA got moved up to 5, but if they get in it won't be at the expense of ND.

Yep. If the scenario in this thread plays out. The committee will have to decide what's more deserving. Iowa beating 3 under .500 teams and the winner of the East, or a Big 12 team winning 3 games or so against top 15 teams. Because it sounds like it's pretty much a tie now.

 

[ibahawkeye]

Yep. If the scenario in this thread plays out. The committee will have to decide what's more deserving. Iowa beating 3 under .500 teams and the winner of the East, or a Big 12 team winning 3 games or so against top 15 teams. Because it sounds like it's pretty much a tie now.

I didn't see the show buy in my opinion it depends on the Big 12 team. We need to root against Baylor. I think they would take a spot from the Hawks because they came highly ranked into the year and have a tough 4 game stretch to close the year.

If it's Okie St I would see them passing is on the rankings with their win over Baylor in 2 weeks but we would be ranked higher than them in the final week as they sit on a bye and we would be Big Ten champs. Not having a single quality road win will be their downfall.

So at this point, I think the moral is root against Baylor and win.

 

[skinnykilmer17]

Or,

Oklahoma could win out and shoot right up the rankings. Kind of like Ohio St last year.

 

[Playmaker]

-----An undefeated Big Ten team is not going to get left out.

What if we squeak by a 1 loss Michigan St. in the B10 Championship? That is why I was not cheering for Nebraska Saturday....we needed Michigan St, and OSU to keep on winning to remove the built in excuse for screwing Iowa.