Could an undefeated Iowa get hosed by the selection committee?

[ibahawkeye]

So in this scenario which teams are being left out?

Well we have a few scenarios...

Clemson, Bama, Baylor I think would be locks.

Notre Dame- 1 loss on the road in a rain storm to the #1 team vs undefeated B1G champion? I really have no idea and I'll bet the committee wants NO part of this scenario. If I had to pick... I'd probably say Iowa gets the nod just because I don't think the committee would set the precedence of leaving out an undefeated major conference champion that won a conference championship football game on a neutral field. With that said, Notre Dame has SOS on their side, tradition and probably scores higher on the eye test.

Stanford- Iowa goes before them just based on Iowa beating the same team that Stanford lost to
Okie St- Even if undefeated with no road wins and no conference championship game would get left out before Iowa in my opinion

 

[FCAS]

There are a couple of key factors that I think are worth further discussion.

First, after the first vote the committee chair said that the teams were very close together. There are no overwhelmingly dominant teams.

Secondly, the committee has repeatedly said that the voting is not incremental. For example, on the second vote they will not take the first vote results and adjust based on only the results from the last week. They start over with each vote (or at least they are supposed to). Each team is re-evaluated based on the entire season to date.

Based on these factors, I think it is very possible for there to be large movements from week to week, even a couple weeks further down the road. And I think it also makes it possible for two closely ranked teams to flip/flop, even though their recent results are comparable.

 

[mopkins]

Ohhhhh please...every other power conference has the same complaint, the Big Ten is not anything special or have any extra power just because they are the Big Ten.

If Notre Dame wins out, which will include a win at Stanford, there is no way Iowa gets picked ahead of Notre Dame. You are fooling yourself if you believe the prestige of the Big Ten gets Iowa in over Notre Dame.

They do not have the same complaint. The Big Ten has the most money and the largest fan base in all of college sports. Those are facts, not opinions.

If Notre Dame wins out, they would still have 1 loss and 2 less wins than Iowa. Plus no conference title victory.

I'm guessing you listen to none of Jon and Deace's podcasts because they've both said the exact same thing I'm saying about the big ten. Jon even said so in this thread. 13-0 Iowa gets into the CFP no.matter.what.

 

[FCAS]

I'm guessing you listen to none of Jon and Deace's podcasts because they've both said the exact same thing I'm saying about the big ten. Jon even said so in this thread. 13-0 Iowa gets into the CFP no.matter.what.

Oh, well if Jon and Deace said it then it must be Gospel truth.

I pretty strongly believe that an undefeated Iowa team will get in. On the other hand, I'm a long way from completely dismissing the ND over Iowa argument.

 

[HawkeyeMHA]

Come on man. A 13-0 big ten team (even boring ol Iowa) that knocks off the mighty national champion Ohio state Buckeyes is going to be a top four playoff team. That party will be crashed.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Come on man. A 13-0 big ten team (even boring ol Iowa) that knocks off the mighty national champion Ohio state Buckeyes is going to be a top four playoff team. That party will be crashed.

End of debate!! Close thread~

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

But what if the BTT win is over a two loss Michigan team?

 

[mopkins]

Oh, well if Jon and Deace said it then it must be Gospel truth.

I pretty strongly believe that an undefeated Iowa team will get in. On the other hand, I'm a long way from completely dismissing the ND over Iowa argument.

The point was that the people who get paid to do this stuff for a living know more than "random internet poster #402094"

 

[mopkins]

But what if the BTT win is over a two loss Michigan team?

Then Michigan will be a top 10 team in the CFP when Iowa beats them.

 

[PCHawk]

End of debate!! Close thread~

His post didn't even touch on the debate, let alone end it. The debate needs to mention who gets left out and why. People who think Iowa is a better draw than ND because conference affiliation are crazy. 75% of Big 10 country would want ND in over Iowa.

 

[PCHawk]

The point was that the people who get paid to do this stuff for a living know more than "random internet poster #402094"

I haven't heard either of them mention who gets left out and why. Which leads me to believe they haven't even given it any thought. They are just blindly saying "Big 10 is in no matter what". Kinda like a lot of people in this thread.

I love discussing this and I love discussing rankings. We might not be able to do it Sunday, or for 10 more years for that matter. Gotta do it now.

I'm typing this post during a short break from concentrating on Minnesota.

 

[PCHawk]

I wish Jon and Steve would discuss this on the next podcast. Undefeated Iowa, Clemson and Big 12 school, with 1 loss ND and Alabama. Who gets left out and why.

 

[FCAS]

The point was that the people who get paid to do this stuff for a living know more than "random internet poster #402094"

Well that's a dumb point then. Because I'm sure that there are several people who "do this stuff for a living" who believe it is possible for ND to be above an undefeated Iowa in the final poll.

 

[SteveGarvey]

They do not have the same complaint. The Big Ten has the most money and the largest fan base in all of college sports. Those are facts, not opinions.

If Notre Dame wins out, they would still have 1 loss and 2 less wins than Iowa. Plus no conference title victory.

I'm guessing you listen to none of Jon and Deace's podcasts because they've both said the exact same thing I'm saying about the big ten. Jon even said so in this thread. 13-0 Iowa gets into the CFP no.matter.what.

I don't think even Jon and Deace can say with absolute certainty that Iowa wouldn't get left out if we went 13-0. But maybe 98% certainty on it? Sure. The scenario of Bama, Clemson, Baylor and NDU getting voted in ahead of us for reasons already mentioned plus a couple of other scenarios bring the 2% doubt. The 2% doubt comes into play because of the human element of the selection committee-who knows what criteria for sure they're going to emphasize and the human ability to rationalize might come into play as well.

 

[MiniMoeHawk]

I don't understand why people can't acknowledge that as of right now an undefeated Iowa team would need help to get into the playoffs. Instead many on here would rather put blinders on ("lets just focus on the next game") or plug their ears and yell "NO WAY AN UNDEFEATED BIG TEN TEAM GETS LEFT OUT!!!".

Unless the committee was extremely impressed with Iowa beating Indiana they are not going to move up a lot today. There is very little chance that if Notre Dame, Baylor, Alabama, and Clemson all win out that Iowa will jump them. There is also the possibly that if Stanford, Florida, and Oklahoma State all win out that they might jump Iowa. Yeah we can all say it isn't fair, well life isn't fair and everything I put here can happen.

The good news is there is a lot of football left to be played and upsets do happen. So if Iowa does go undefeated I feel like there is a good chance they will get into the playoffs. But, like I said, as of right now they need help getting in.

Iowa would be the only team to knock off the defending champion Buckeyes in the last two years. There is no way they would snub Iowa from the playoff. It would be the best win of everyone's resume.

 

[FCAS]

QUOTE=paulzoss;1461491]

Think there is a Stanford bias with her AND Tyrone Willingham on the committee???

Rice and Willingham are recused with respect to Stanford. Although I suspect their could be some arm-twisting in side discussions during meeting breaks.

 

[mopkins]

I don't think even Jon and Deace can say with absolute certainty that Iowa wouldn't get left out if we went 13-0. But maybe 98% certainty on it? Sure. The scenario of Bama, Clemson, Baylor and NDU getting voted in ahead of us for reasons already mentioned plus a couple of other scenarios bring the 2% doubt. The 2% doubt comes into play because of the human element of the selection committee-who knows what criteria for sure they're going to emphasize and the human ability to rationalize might come into play as well.

In your doomsday scenario of gigantic "what if" scenarios, Iowa gets in over Notre Dame.

Notre Dame: 11-1, Wins over CFP ranked teams: Stanford, Temple (if they stay ranked), Navy (if they become and stay ranked). Losses to Clemson

Iowa: 13-0, Big Ten conference championship game winners (committee says this is huge on their list), win over a top 10 CFP team (even if Iowa doesn't play Ohio State the team they play WILL be ranked in the top 10 going into the title game). Also wins @NW and @Wisconsin. Either one or both of those teams will be in the top 25 CFP at the end of the year.

- Notre Dame suffers for not being in a conference, so they play 1 less game.
- Notre Dame lost a game. Iowa did not.
- Notre Dame has an overall very strong SoS, but when compared to top 25 ranked CFP teams, Iowa's resume would be equal or better.
- Notre Dame is idle on December 5th while all other teams are playing in their conference title games. We have proof from last year that the committee takes this serious. All the attention given to the conference championship games will cause people to forget that ND beat Stanford the week before. Boo Hoo ND, join a conference.
- Possibly foolish reason but #1 Clemson vs #4 ND is a matchup that's already happened this season. ND lost. It doesn't make sense to repeat it in the first round of the CFP
- An undefeated big ten team will never be left out of the CFP. Ever. The Big Ten would come down on the committee very hard. It would be ugly.
- Barry Alvarez and Tom Osborne love old school football and don't care about "explosive offense". Both of their teams lost to Iowa this year in their own houses. They are also on the CFP committee. Even if Alvarez supposedly "hates" Iowa, he has to respect the season they had. Who on the committee is going to bat for Notre Dame? Tyrone Willingham, the guy they fired?

Is that enough evidence?

 

[ibahawkeye]

I haven't heard either of them mention who gets left out and why. Which leads me to believe they haven't even given it any thought. They are just blindly saying "Big 10 is in no matter what". Kinda like a lot of people in this thread.

I love discussing this and I love discussing rankings. We might not be able to do it Sunday, or for 10 more years for that matter. Gotta do it now.

I'm typing this post during a short break from concentrating on Minnesota.

If it were possible for all these teams to finish the remainder of the year without another loss... I would rank them in the following order:

Clemson
Bama
Baylor
Iowa
Notre Dame
Okie St

 

[FCAS]

In your doomsday scenario of gigantic "what if" scenarios, Iowa gets in over Notre Dame.

Notre Dame: 11-1, Wins over CFP ranked teams: Stanford, Temple (if they stay ranked), Navy (if they become and stay ranked). Losses to Clemson

Iowa: 13-0, Big Ten conference championship game winners (committee says this is huge on their list), win over a top 10 CFP team (even if Iowa doesn't play Ohio State the team they play WILL be ranked in the top 10 going into the title game). Also wins @NW and @Wisconsin. Either one or both of those teams will be in the top 25 CFP at the end of the year.

- Notre Dame suffers for not being in a conference, so they play 1 less game.
- Notre Dame lost a game. Iowa did not.
- Notre Dame has an overall very strong SoS, but when compared to top 25 ranked CFP teams, Iowa's resume would be equal or better.
- Notre Dame is idle on December 5th while all other teams are playing in their conference title games. We have proof from last year that the committee takes this serious. All the attention given to the conference championship games will cause people to forget that ND beat Stanford the week before. Boo Hoo ND, join a conference.
- Possibly foolish reason but #1 Clemson vs #4 ND is a matchup that's already happened this season. ND lost. It doesn't make sense to repeat it in the first round of the CFP
- An undefeated big ten team will never be left out of the CFP. Ever. The Big Ten would come down on the committee very hard. It would be ugly.
- Barry Alvarez and Tom Osborne love old school football and don't care about "explosive offense". Both of their teams lost to Iowa this year in their own houses. They are also on the CFP committee. Even if Alvarez supposedly "hates" Iowa, he has to respect the season they had. Who on the committee is going to bat for Notre Dame? Tyrone Willingham, the guy they fired?

Is that enough evidence?

Very good response, although I would say a little bit of it is more opinion rather than definitive evidence.

Just one example, you state that an undefeated BIG team will never be left out, ever. This is an extreme example, but what if you also have undefeated teams from the ACC, PAC 12, Big 12, SEC, along with an undefeated Notre Dame or BYU? Why would the BIG be guaranteed a spot in this scenario?

Also, you say that conference championship is a huge factor. The CFP Protocol does mention conf championship as a key criteria, along with SOS, head-to-head competition, and common opponent outcomes. But I haven't seen anything that says conf championship is more important than the other 3 factors.

 

[2xer]

In your doomsday scenario of gigantic "what if" scenarios, Iowa gets in over Notre Dame.

Notre Dame: 11-1, Wins over CFP ranked teams: Stanford, Temple (if they stay ranked), Navy (if they become and stay ranked). Losses to Clemson

Iowa: 13-0, Big Ten conference championship game winners (committee says this is huge on their list), win over a top 10 CFP team (even if Iowa doesn't play Ohio State the team they play WILL be ranked in the top 10 going into the title game). Also wins @NW and @Wisconsin. Either one or both of those teams will be in the top 25 CFP at the end of the year.

- Notre Dame suffers for not being in a conference, so they play 1 less game.
- Notre Dame lost a game. Iowa did not.
- Notre Dame has an overall very strong SoS, but when compared to top 25 ranked CFP teams, Iowa's resume would be equal or better.
- Notre Dame is idle on December 5th while all other teams are playing in their conference title games. We have proof from last year that the committee takes this serious. All the attention given to the conference championship games will cause people to forget that ND beat Stanford the week before. Boo Hoo ND, join a conference.
- Possibly foolish reason but #1 Clemson vs #4 ND is a matchup that's already happened this season. ND lost. It doesn't make sense to repeat it in the first round of the CFP
- An undefeated big ten team will never be left out of the CFP. Ever. The Big Ten would come down on the committee very hard. It would be ugly.
- Barry Alvarez and Tom Osborne love old school football and don't care about "explosive offense". Both of their teams lost to Iowa this year in their own houses. They are also on the CFP committee. Even if Alvarez supposedly "hates" Iowa, he has to respect the season they had. Who on the committee is going to bat for Notre Dame? Tyrone Willingham, the guy they fired?

Is that enough evidence?

Nate Silver Agrees.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...l-probably-make-the-college-football-playoff/