Could an undefeated Iowa get hosed by the selection committee?

[paulzoss]

It's not too early to worry about the end game in the college football playoff selection process. I keep hearing there is no way that an undefeated 13-0 Iowa, as the Big Ten champion, would be left out of the playoffs. In a fair and just world that would be true, but I think we could very well get the shaft even if we win out. All it would take is for Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, and the winner of the Baylor vs Oklahoma State game to win out. If that happens, those four teams would be the final four, and Iowa would get left out.

As unfair as that would be, who would the committee take out to put in Iowa? Clemson and either Baylor or Oklahoma State would undefeated, and while I think Iowa should be ranked ahead of either Baylor or Oky State, that's not what the committee would do. They have already indicated as such - our offense is not sexy enough. Although both Notre Dame and Alabama would be one-loss teams, I can't see the group of 12 men on the selection committee putting Iowa ahead of them. It would be too tempting to put the storied programs at Alabama and ND in the final four, particularly if ND has just defeated Stanford and Alabama has just won the SEC championship game. Iowa would not have a chance. In fact, we might even get hosed in favor of Stanford it they beat ND. I know, it would make no sense (we trounced Northwestern who defeated Stanford), but I could still see it happening, particularly if Stanford puts a beating on ND.


Let's just win them all and convincingly defeat the East champion so that the committee can't ignore us (although if OSU comes into the championship game with a loss, or if MSU or UM represent the East in the game, even that might not be enough).

 

[InGoodCo]

won't happen - the B1G title game win would propel Iowa into the top 4 and ND not playing that last weekend would hurt it.

 

[proudhawkfan21]

Nope.

 

[83Hawk]

1. The committee will not be able to justify putting both Clemson and Notre Dame in the final four....since Clemson already beat them, that should de facto eliminate ND from that scenario.

2. The only thing that concerns me right now is Minnesota! Once the Hawks take care of business Saturday, then they can worry about the next step.....Purdue!

 

[SpiderRico]

If we win out, including beating OSU in the B1G title game, there's no way that Baylor, with it's schedule, would be picked ahead of us.....even if they are undefeated.

There's a reason that OSU jumped 2 teams (Baylor and TCU) in the final poll. Yes, being a "blue blood" helped. And yes, beating Wisky 59-0 helped too. But I'm telling you, even though we are finally in a playoff format.....if you think there isn't still back-room politicking going on, you're crazy. And there's just no way that an undefeated team, in the richest, most alumni-rich, and most powerful conference in the country is going to be left off the biggest stage in college football. It's just not going to happen.

 

[paulzoss]

I truly hope you all are right. If ND is in the top four tomorrow, I'll still be worried.

 

[HawkInATX]

Don't be worried. If Iowa wins out, including the B1G championship, they are in the playoffs and the P5 conference being left out is likely the Pac-12 (obviously conditional based upon chaos in the SEC/B12)

 

[RushTogether]

I truly hope you all are right. If ND is in the top four tomorrow, I'll still be worried.

Why?
There is still SO MUCH TIME left...4 weeks!

 

[SpiderRico]

Don't be worried. If Iowa wins out, including the B1G championship, they are in the playoffs and the P5 conference being left out is likely the Pac-12 (obviously conditional based upon chaos in the SEC/B12)

That still leaves 4 Power 5 conference teams plus Notre Dame.....someone else is getting left out.....unless you're assuming Notre Dame loses to Stanford....

 

[HawkInATX]

That still leaves 4 Power 5 conference teams plus Notre Dame.....someone else is getting left out.....unless you're assuming Notre Dame loses to Stanford....

Um no. ND isn't getting in. They have a loss and they don't play in a conference championship. They will not make it in unless #CHAOS

 

[JonDMiller]

An undefeated Big Ten team is not going to get left out.

 

[damnfinn]

for the 100,000 time, NO

 

[SpiderRico]

Um no. ND isn't getting in. They have a loss and they don't play in a conference championship. They will not make it in unless #CHAOS

I understand what you were saying....but you were only counting the Power 5 teams. The agreement is the Power 5 teams plus Notre Dame, so even if one Power 5 team gets left out, there's still 5 slots for 4 teams. And a one loss Notre Dame team is still a viable option for the playoffs....especially considering that they will be in the Top 4 once the new rankings are released (I'm guessing it's Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama and Notre Dame...in no particular order). So if they win out, then they have to drop and get jumped by some team....hence, they would get "left out".

 

[hockey04]

Tired cliché I know but man I just want to win the next game.

 

[HawkInATX]

I understand what you were saying....but you were only counting the Power 5 teams. The agreement is the Power 5 teams plus Notre Dame, so even if one Power 5 team gets left out, there's still 5 slots for 4 teams. And a one loss Notre Dame team is still a viable option for the playoffs....especially considering that they will be in the Top 4 once the new rankings are released (I'm guessing it's Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama and Notre Dame...in no particular order). So if they win out, then they have to drop and get jumped by some team....hence, they would get "left out".

Your logic makes sense up until the thirteenth game (conference championships). That means an extra win and championships are one of the selection committee's main criteria for deciding rankings. So while no championships have been played yet, once they are, ND will take their hit.

 

[hwk23]

ND might get in over a 1 loss conference champ but not an undefeated conference champ. Their wins aren't really any better than ours. Our best wins Wiscy, NW and Pitt are pretty equal to ND's 3 best USC, Temple and Pitt.

 

[PCHawk]

I wish people would give logical reasons why Iowa would get in over those 4 instead of just saying the Big 10 will never get left out. Ohio State would never get left out. Michigan would never get left out. Why would Iowa never get left out? Notre Dame is probably the biggest name school there is, but Iowa is going to knock them out no doubt about it huh?

 

[PCHawk]

ND might get in over a 1 loss conference champ but not an undefeated conference champ. Their wins aren't really any better than ours. Our best wins Wiscy, NW and Pitt are pretty equal to ND's 3 best USC, Temple and Pitt.

And what has the committee done and said up to this point to make you think they give a rip about who deserves it more?

 

[paulzoss]

An undefeated Big Ten team is not going to get left out.

I hope you're right, but it’s easy to just say by fiat that there is no way an undefeated Big Ten winner gets left out. In a fair and just world, that would always be true, but you still have to do the math. If ND is in the top 4 tomorrow, the committee will have already taken into consideration the fact that they have lost a game to Clemson. If ND wins out, for Iowa to jump them, the committee would have to conclude our win over the Big Ten East champion improved our resume enough to overtake ND in the face of their hypothetical win over Stanford. Is that really going to happen? ND has a lot of clout. Otherwise, if Clemson and Alabama are in, the only other way we’d get in would be to jump the Oklahoma State/Baylor winner, assuming one or both is ranked higher than Iowa the polls leading up to the final selections. Maybe that would be our path to the final four, but would that really be a given, in light of the committee chairman's ignorant comments comparing Baylor's offense with ours? Of course, if any of these teams stumble over the next few weeks, it would change everything.

 

[HawkInATX]

I wish people would give logical reasons why Iowa would get in over those 4 instead of just saying the Big 10 will never get left out. Ohio State would never get left out. Michigan would never get left out. Why would Iowa never get left out? Notre Dame is probably the biggest name school there is, but Iowa is going to knock them out no doubt about it huh?

Look at the selection criteria from the CFP committee:

Principles. The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:

• Conference championships won,
• Strength of schedule,
• Head-to-head competition,
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
• Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance

Therefore, when it comes down to nearly equal teams, conference championships matter. A 1 loss ND does not and can not have a championship, meaning it can not compete in the CFP rankings against an undefeated Power 5 team.

As for the Pac-12 not getting in, you are covered under common opponents. Iowa and Stanford (really the only Pac-12 team that has a shot at the playoffs) has a loss to a common opponent as Iowa (northwestern) which Iowa beat. Therefore, an undefeated Iowa will be in the playoffs. Logic enough?