Big Ten Bracket Simulator

ssckelley said:
Against Iowa the first time they almost made as many 3's (10) as they did free throws (14 out of 26). That game makes me sick every time I think about it. Iowa would still be in the hunt for the regular season title had they taken care of business at Nebraska.
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The flipside to that is we won probably 2 games that we typically don't win.....Wisky when we were down 12 with 7 mins to go (we NEVER win that when down double digits to Wisky given their lack of tempo) and @ Minny when we finished on an 11-0 run.

So it's probably all evened out in the end.
 
Dadman said:
Just win out and get the double bye.
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I ran a LOT of scenarios and I can't find one where 2-0 doesn't get us a double-bye. About the only thing I didn't do is have Maryland lose both games and put them in a 3, 4, 5, or 6 way tie for 1st.
 
Dadman said:
Now we have to pretty much win out in order to get a double bye.
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The only scenario I found that would get Iowa a double-bye with a loss at Illinois would include NW winning at Wisc and at home against PSU.

A loss at home to Purdue and a win at Illinois was much more doable, and I even got Iowa the 3 seed, but it did include a lot of "no way in hell" scenarios.
 
PCHawk said:
Maryland is struggling right now and they got Rutgers on the road (I'd say that one is about 50/50) and Michigan at home. Michigan will probably be needing a win pretty bad and are a lot better than their record. Had Minnesota finished their last 2 games against Maryland and Wisconsin, we would have a really good shot at 13-7 being good enough. As is, I'd say there's about a 10% chance that 13-7 wins it.
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I think MI is worse than their record.
 
In all honesty, though, a 2-0 finish may get us a double bye, but it also could give us a 4 seed in the NCAA's. According to the BPI S-curve, Iowa is a 4 seed right now.
 
With our 8 guys healthy I think we have about a 90% chance of beating PU on Senior Day in a revenge game. I think we have a 40% chance at IL.
 
SpiderRico said:
The flipside to that is we won probably 2 games that we typically don't win.....Wisky when we were down 12 with 7 mins to go (we NEVER win that when down double digits to Wisky given their lack of tempo) and @ Minny when we finished on an 11-0 run.

So it's probably all evened out in the end.
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But those wins don't happen because they lost at Nebraska. The actual flip side to those games was where Iowa blew big leads against teams like San Diego State, MSU, and at Maryland or a close loss to Penn State at The Palestra.
 
PCHawk said:
They had a really rough stretch with maybe their best player out. That stretch killed their record and their mojo.
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He’s been back for awhile. They just get killed inside. I thought Teske was a pretty solid player. But he hasn’t been good on D and can’t make 3s...when I’ve watched.
 
WindsorHawk said:
He’s been back for awhile. They just get killed inside. I thought Teske was a pretty solid player. But he hasn’t been good on D and can’t make 3s...when I’ve watched.
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I thought they started winning again after they got him back? Got ranked again even.
 
ssckelley said:
But those wins don't happen because they lost at Nebraska. The actual flip side to those games was where Iowa blew big leads against teams like San Diego State, MSU, and at Maryland or a close loss to Penn State at The Palestra.
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I wasn't insinuating that there was a cause and effect relationship. What I was saying is that, we can't really look at just losses that should have been wins without also looking at wins that could very easily have been losses. At the end of the day, we definitely won some games that should have been losses (and, historically, typically would have been) and lost some games that should have been wins. In the end, I think our record is pretty much what it should be.
 
PCHawk said:
Maryland is struggling right now and they got Rutgers on the road (I'd say that one is about 50/50) and Michigan at home. Michigan will probably be needing a win pretty bad and are a lot better than their record. Had Minnesota finished their last 2 games against Maryland and Wisconsin, we would have a really good shot at 13-7 being good enough. As is, I'd say there's about a 10% chance that 13-7 wins it.
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Yeah, Minny has to collectively be kicking themselves in the ass for the games they have given up late just like with us. But you are correct.

There are 4 teams between us and the lead with little time to go. It is like a pro golf tourney where if a player is behind by 5 going into the last 18 holes but they are in second place they dont have to pass as many players. This player needs to play well of course but might only need one player to play poorly.

The same player being behind by 5 but having 12 players between him and the lead has that much lower chance of all 12 ahead of him playing poorly.
 
uihawk82 said:
Yeah, Minny has to collectively be kicking themselves in the ass for the games they have given up late just like with us. But you are correct.

There are 4 teams between us and the lead with little time to go. It is like a pro golf tourney where if a player is behind by 5 going into the last 18 holes but they are in second place they dont have to pass as many players. This player needs to play well of course but might only need one player to play poorly.

The same player being behind by 5 but having 12 players between him and the lead has that much lower chance of all 12 ahead of him playing poorly.
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That's a good analogy. The good news is, we really only need one team to play poorly. The other two teams just have to not play good. Michigan State could play average and still lose @Penn State. Wisconsin isn't that good anyway (at least I think) so them losing @Indiana wouldn't be a shock at all. You're right tho that having to worry about 3 teams, other than ourselves, makes things way less likely.
 
SpiderRico said:
I wasn't insinuating that there was a cause and effect relationship. What I was saying is that, we can't really look at just losses that should have been wins without also looking at wins that could very easily have been losses. At the end of the day, we definitely won some games that should have been losses (and, historically, typically would have been) and lost some games that should have been wins. In the end, I think our record is pretty much what it should be.
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Our record is almost where it should be, they should have 1 more win. Iowa should have manhandled Nebraska.
 
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I went back and changed the Nebraska game. It made us the 3 seed regardless of whether we win or lose the illinois game. We were even the 3 seed if Maryland lost one more, although that would have given us a tie for 1st. So as long as we win out and Maryland wins out, we can finally say the Nebraska game didn't hurt. If we lose one or Maryland loses one, the loss will be a big deal.
 
PCHawk said:
I went back and changed the Nebraska game. It made us the 3 seed regardless of whether we win or lose the illinois game. We were even the 3 seed if Maryland lost one more, although that would have given us a tie for 1st. So as long as we win out and Maryland wins out, we can finally say the Nebraska game didn't hurt. If we lose one or Maryland loses one, the loss will be a big deal.
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Gosh dang it, quit trying to be reasonable! I want to bitch about that game for the rest of the season!! :D
 
Ok so now I changed Nebraska, had us win out, had Maryland lose at Rutgers, and had MSU lose at Penn State. That scenario hurts bad. Leaves us in a 2 way tie for 1st. Makes us the 1 seed with Wisconsin the 4 and MSU the 5. That would be a nice bracket.
 
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