9-9 in conf for Iowa "virtual lock"

@ Purdue
Home against Illinois

Two big games that I think we need if we want a better than .500 record in conference.
 


jacknicholson said:
It is good to get the recognition this early in the season, and it might provide more motivation for the team. As Stormin says, another marquee win would probably seal the deal. Wisconsin was a borderline marquee win. I think we will beat Illinois at Carver. That might count as a big win, but I don't think Illinois is a top 25 team anyway......

It is very good to get positive recognition. At halftime against Wisconsin, one of the announcers, maybe Jim Jackson, who is fair, mentioned that MSU was lucky to escape with a win at Carver. Sam Vincent, the tool, had nothing to say and, to me, wasn't that complimentary to the Hawks.....
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Illinois is the team I'm banking on going south so we get to be that 7th Big Ten team.
 
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storminspank said:
And it all depends on how weak they are this year.

The Big 12 and Pac 12 are down.
But the MWC could get a bunch of teams in: New Mex, UNLV, Colo St, Wyoming, SDSU

But, you are right, it will come down to how the other Power 6 teams in the middle of the pack look.
Tough to count out a middle of the road B1G esp when comparing it to a B12 or PAC12 team.
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Pac-12 is up, right now they have three virtual locks at this point with Arizona, Oregon and UCLA...I am not sold on UCLA yet however, but they are ranked and people think them beating Mizzou actually means something.

The MWC should get all those teams in, they have a good league there and may supplant the A-10 as the best mid-major league soon. Butler moving to the A-10 is bad for Iowa actually, new team coming out of that league and Butler is going to be in no matter what.

The Big 12 is just bad, Baylor is just laying an egg this seasons and I don't see them in, but Kansas/KSU will be in and who knows, that may be it. Iowa State has a shot to finish 3rd, but I am not sure how much weight that will carry as West Virginia is just awful and TCU isn't really good. The Big 12 did themselves no favors with those two programs so far.

I don't see the Big East getting as much respect as they have in the past and UConn being ineligible helps Iowa as well.

ACC is bad beyond Duke/Miami, UNC will probably make it as the ACC has a lot of really bad teams and UNC has some talent. I don't know how many of them make it.

What we all should be focused on are the mid-majors, with a lot of major conference's being down, who takes those spots? Lehigh is going to have to play without their best player, VCU is a good team that gets no recognition and Murray State may not win their conference.

Will the Big Ten get an extra bid, like an Iowa team if they do finish 7th at 9-9, or let a whole bunch of mid-majors in the field? I think depending on how many mid-major conference tournament upsets happen or don't happen Iowa can squeak in.
 




tubahawk said:
Sorry I'm too lazy to look this up.... Wouldn't they have to beat at least one of those 5 teams (I'm including Indy & Michigan) to make it to 9-9?
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Changed my mind and researched it myself... It is possible to go 9-9 and not beat any of those teams. They could actually win 11 and not beat a "marquee" team

vs. Indiana * L, 69-65
at Michigan * L, 95-67
vs. Michigan State * L, 62-59
at Northwestern * W, 70-50
vs. Wisconsin * W, 70-66
at Ohio State *
at Purdue *
vs. Penn State *
at Minnesota *
at Wisconsin *
vs. Northwestern *
at Penn State *
vs. Minnesota *
at Nebraska *
vs. Purdue *
at Indiana *
vs. Illinois *
vs. Nebraska *
 


At least this year we can't say we are held back by any "bad" non-conference losses. Although Tech may end up being one at the end of the year.
 


I would rather Wisconsin go to crap so we finish ahead of them then finish strong and give us a good win. Also if we get another good win (like Minnesota at home) and finish with only 9 wins, that means we have a couple bad conference loses on our resume. Our conference schedule is just to easy to get a guaranteed bid at 9-9.
 


Finish in the top 6 and that'll end all discussions... Illinois is spiralling and there's a very real chance that Wisconsin could end up with more losses then Iowa. People are going to watch how Iowa beat them and take it to them in the same manner. I can see another 7 losses, and if Iowa/Purdue can pull off wins, that'd put them at 10 losses in the B1G. Here's their remaining schedule:
Tue. Jan. 22
vs. 13 Michigan State
Sat. Jan. 26
vs. 12 Minnesota
Tue. Jan. 29
at 14 Ohio State
Sun. Feb. 3
at Illinois
Wed. Feb. 6
vs. Iowa
Sat. Feb. 9
vs. 2 Michigan
Thu. Feb. 14
at 12 Minnesota
Sun. Feb. 17
vs. 14 Ohio State
Wed. Feb. 20
at Northwestern
Tue. Feb. 26
vs. Nebraska
Sat. Mar. 2
vs. Purdue
Thu. Mar. 7
at 13 Michigan State
Sun. Mar. 10
at Penn State
 
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If Iowa loses to Wis. and to the teams that are currently ranked, that'd give them an additional 5 losses and leave them with a 21-10 record... a signature win would certainly help, but I think that record gets them in...
 


I picked Iowa to go 20-11 and 9-9, back in October. I felt that they'd need to win at least one in the B1G tourney and then they'd still be a bubble team. I thought one of their nine wins would be vs MSU at home, so that shot for another good win is by the wayside. Perhaps they can get Minnesota in Iowa City, but I think that team is a real bad match up for Iowa.
 


With this young team Iowa is going to win at least 1 game they shouldn't and lose at least 1 game they shouldn't. But let's pretend for a minute they get to 9 wins without any "marquee" win, that puts them at 20-11 and probably a 6 seed in the BTT with a first round game against Penn St, Northwestern, or Nebraska. Chances are good the win that game but if they lose in the 2nd round to Minnesota or MSU IMO Iowa is in with a 21-12 overall record. Except for Michigan they have been competive in all of their losses.

Another thing to keep in mind is the tournament committee has historically liked teams playing well at the end of the season, if Iowa wins all the games they are supposed to they would have won 7 of their last 10 games (BTT included).

Isn't it fun to be arguing this stuff again?
 




If this team goes .500 in conference, they will win 2 in the b10 tournament.

Nothing to back this up. Just a feeling.
 


CAARHawk said:
If this team goes .500 in conference, they will win 2 in the b10 tournament.

Nothing to back this up. Just a feeling.
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Frans B10 tourney wins by year:

2011: 0
2012: 1
2013: CAAR's predicting 2, I think he may have found another pattern everyone! Good News!
 






CAARHawk said:
If this team goes .500 in conference, they will win 2 in the b10 tournament.

Nothing to back this up. Just a feeling.
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9-9 will probably be good for 7th in the league, maybe 6th. 7 plays 10 in the first round and plays the 2 in the second round. 6 plays the 11 then plays the three. The two will come from Indiana or Michigan, the three likely Minnesota.
 






Wisconsin is always overrated by Pomeroy. He even writes about it. That said, it's still a good win. You get to 9-9, have no bad losses and have wins over Iowa State, Purdue (twice), Illinois, Northwestern (twice), Wisconsin.

That gives you 7 top 100 wins, (Iowa State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue all may end up being top 50 teams). I would think you're in if you don't lose to a Penn State or Nebraska.

I feel like every year there is a team who has no great wins but no awful losses and no one is sure what to do with them. We could easily be that team.
 


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