$5 mil a year to bonehead go for 2 early in the game!!!

[PCHawk]

Going for it on 4th made sense.. as far as risk and reward. We make the FG and we are still down 8 pts.

Going for the 2 pt conversion didn't make sense.

The odds of not converting 2 points coming back to bite you is actually pretty small. The odds of winning if you do get it raise quite a bit. That game played out in the exact wrong way, making it actually matter.

Again, if you dont get it, it rarely hurts you. But if you do get it, it really helps you. If you dont believe that statement, think about this. If you're down 4 points or 5 points in a game, how much do you really care? It means almost nothing. Now think about being down 4 points or 3 points. That's a pretty big difference.

 

[PCHawk]

I'm going to guess them having to score a touchdown in that situation decreases our chance of losing by at least 30%

Not saying they don't score, but it's still a significant difference.

The problem with your 30% guess is they still have the backup plan of tying the game and winning in ot.

 

[PCHawk]

Bunch of dumbass in this thread. Hindsight is 20/20. Let me ask a question...down 3 at the end of the game, do you really think that Brohm doesn't try to score a touchdown at the end? While were in LALA land, I think Purdue gets a touchdown to win the game there.

If they were down 3 there instead of 4, they score a td at a pretty high clip. The times they don't, they kick a chip shot field goal and still win in ot 50% of the time.

 

[Bigtenchamp]

The odds of not converting 2 points coming back to bite you is actually pretty small. The odds of winning if you do get it raise quite a bit. That game played out in the exact wrong way, making it actually matter.

Again, if you dont get it, it rarely hurts you. But if you do get it, it really helps you. If you dont believe that statement, think about this. If you're down 4 points or 5 points in a game, how much do you really care? It means almost nothing. Now think about being down 4 points or 3 points. That's a pretty big difference.

Not sure about the "it rarely hurts you" conclusion....

 

[hawkeyes87]

Speaking of 2 pt conversions. Does anyone remember ever actually getting one? I remember Wadley against Michigan as I'm typing this. But we have got to be about 1 for our last 15.

There's the key.

I'm fine w/ going for 2 any time, if you have a couple plays ( with multiple options ) that you feel confident can get 3 yards.

Unfortunately BF is not good at identifying those plays, as we haven't converted a single one under his watch that I remember.

A supposedly strong running team, w/ two of the best TE's in America, should have a couple plays that are almost guaranteed to work!

 

[Bigtenchamp]

The problem with your 30% guess is they still have the backup plan of tying the game and winning in ot.

dude they had a 99% win probablity once they were inside the 10 to kick a FG... Coming into this game they had a 56% redzone TD scoring %

Your equating 2 pt conversions with going for it on 4th (if its in the redzone) has some logic.

This other line of reasoning is no bueno logic.

Were talking about the difference between NO chance to win as opposed to a 50/50 shot in OT.

 

[Ben Rumson]

I don't care if you go for one, two. Just hold the other freaking team from scoring and hold damn lead once in a game in the closing minutes of the fourth.

 

[SidFarkas]

15th to 20th largest budget
Third highest salary in the B1G
$90m stadium addition
One of, if not the top football facilities in B1G

Only thing missing is the Championships

 

[Ben Rumson]

15th to 20th largest budget
Third highest salary in the B1G
$90m stadium addition
One of, if not the top football facilities in B1G

Only thing missing is the Championships

Sorry, the one thing money can't buy!...for us anyway!

 

[SidFarkas]

Sorry, the one thing money can't buy!...for us anyway!

Brohm and Fitz = better than KF with far less resources.

 

[PCHawk]

dude they had a 99% win probablity once they were inside the 10 to kick a FG... Coming into this game they had a 56% redzone TD scoring %

Your equating 2 pt conversions with going for it on 4th (if its in the redzone) has some logic.

This other line of reasoning is no bueno logic.

Were talking about the difference between NO chance to win as opposed to a 50/50 shot in OT.

Once they were inside the 10, yes. But when you factor in them scoring a td from there + the odds of winning in ot - the odds of us actually converting the 2 pt conversion - the odds of them ever getting inside the 10, its pretty damn close. I would say erroring on the side of aggression is pretty damn refreshing after the first 17 years.

 

[PCHawk]

Not sure about the "it rarely hurts you" conclusion....

You have to first not get the 2 pt conversion, then end up losing by exactly 1 point for it to bite you. That takes a lot of exact shit to happen. Which of course it did.

 

[Bigtenchamp]

Once they were inside the 10, yes. But when you factor in them scoring a td from there + the odds of winning in ot - the odds of us actually converting the 2 pt conversion - the odds of them ever getting inside the 10, its pretty damn close. I would say erroring on the side of aggression is pretty damn refreshing after the first 17 years.

Now you are just throwing out a bunch of numbers

 

[uihawk82]

At the time he was "chasing points, are defense couldn't stop anybody." The offense on the other hand had just marched down there and scored a td. Both times the play was there, they just missed it. Ferentz put them in a position to make plays, they didn't. Our defense had nothing today, they've been phenomenal all year. Our pass rush couldn't get to Blaugh for some reason, and it sucked, we lost. If he'd have kicked extra points and we still would have lost the same people would be on here saying he's not aggressive enough, they don't want to win. Hindsight is always 20-20 gang. Its why after the game we are all geniuses on what should have happened.

It wasnt 20-20 hindsight as I and I bet many others saw KF signal to go for 2 and I started saying "NO NO NO" it wasnt hindisight.

 

[PCHawk]

It wasnt 20-20 hindsight as I and I bet many others saw KF signal to go for 2 and I started saying "NO NO NO" it wasnt hindisight.

You were that scared to be behind 5 instead of 4. I gotta tell you, that's just not very scary to me.

 

[PCHawk]

I think a lot of people (especially the older generation) want to avoid something bad happening for as long as possible, even at the detriment of giving yourself a better chance to win. Missing a 2 pt conversion is bad, but the benefits of making it far outweighs the downside of missing it, yet people dont care. They want to avoid bad things at all costs.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

By the way... we still need a punter. Rastetter was pretty weak today.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I think a lot of people (especially the older generation) want to avoid something bad happening for as long as possible, even at the detriment of giving yourself a better chance to win. Missing a 2 pt conversion is bad, but the benefits of making it far outweighs the downside of missing it, yet people dont care. They want to avoid bad things at all costs.

I wouldn't be so quick with those blanket generalizations. I'm an "old fart" and most of my college buddies who are hard core Hawk fans don't think that way.

And incase some still haven't figured it out...the decision to go for 2 was NOT WHY WE LOST. Purdue would have just punched it into the endzone on the last drive if they needed more than the FG. They were 1st and goal...we weren't stopping them.

 

[phdsvp]

Brohm and Fitz = better than KF with far less resources.

Is KF even in the top HALF of B1G coaches? He's obviously worse than Meyer, Harbaugh, Brohm, and Fitz. A lot of people would put him below James Franklin. I may not like Michigan State very much, but scoreboard doesn't lie. So we might be down to KF being better than Scott Frost to even stay in the top half.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Enuf said, And was that ball catchable when Brents got called for PI?

Spot on!!