Ukraine War Update

Ok...but not great

:cool:
In reality less than that. I can survive travel but that's about it.

When we adopted my wife had to go back while we had immigration issues. My 5 yo told me where to go in a restaurant i Kyiv... I understood some of it... and she screamed it. Everyone looked at me like what the hell. I grabbed both and ran out the door.
 
Russian missiles today hit inside of Poland. Poland is calling meetings including NATO. My Ukrainian friends this week have been expecting an increase in hostilities. Russia has been targeting transportation infrastructure.

Quietly Russia has been moving troops into Belarus. Poland borders both Ukraine and Belarus. On the flip side, Poland has been readying military assets and troops to the border as well as the Baltic states. The Czechs are doing the same.

Russia completed its withdrawal from west of the Dnipro River at Kherson. US Republican support for Ukraine blank check is diminishing. Ukraine is feeling the pressure. Many in Ukraine were expecting something stupid this week. Much of Ukraine and Moldova are in the dark today from massive missile strikes.

I don't see this as an accident, but a retaliation of a Ukrainian attack in Russia near the Polish Baltic state borders with likely the help of the Poles as eastern Europe is beginning to realize the west Europeans don't share the same goals.

Opinions collected and disseminated by HawkGold per request of the moderator Zuckerberg, also known as Fry...
 
Russian missiles today hit inside of Poland. Poland is calling meetings including NATO. My Ukrainian friends this week have been expecting an increase in hostilities. Russia has been targeting transportation infrastructure.

Quietly Russia has been moving troops into Belarus. Poland borders both Ukraine and Belarus. On the flip side, Poland has been readying military assets and troops to the border as well as the Baltic states. The Czechs are doing the same.

Russia completed its withdrawal from west of the Dnipro River at Kherson. US Republican support for Ukraine blank check is diminishing. Ukraine is feeling the pressure. Many in Ukraine were expecting something stupid this week. Much of Ukraine and Moldova are in the dark today from massive missile strikes.

I don't see this as an accident, but a retaliation of a Ukrainian attack in Russia near the Polish Baltic state borders with likely the help of the Poles as eastern Europe is beginning to realize the west Europeans don't share the same goals.

Opinions collected and disseminated by HawkGold per request of the moderator Zuckerberg, also known as Fry...
Reports the explosions suggest the missiles may have been fired by Ukraine at Russian missiles. We will see.
 
So now what? The Ukraine president either made a mistake announcing the missile was Russian or he is intentionally trying to start WW3.
 
So now what? The Ukraine president either made a mistake announcing the missile was Russian or he is intentionally trying to start WW3.
Exactly... we don't know. Precarious time. He is getting a lot of heat on an end to the war due to US elections. Has reasons to escalate. Still could be a mistake and jumped to a conclusion about what it was. Poland is moving toward involvement as are other former Warsaw Pact nations.

You may notice the news reports a lot about how European nations are providing support for Ukraine and the US isn't mentioned as much.

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Russia isn't using the most proficient missiles if they are from Iran

Poland probably wasn't deliberately targeted, however, who knows with Putin's massive psychotic ego
and that of his top maniac general who can't accept defeat despite the overwhelming casualties and destroyed and or abandoned equipment

North Korea probably has better-quality missiles to cause death from above
 
Ukraine's currency value fell 75% from pre Crimea levels to the USD. Make no mistake. This is the US fighting Russia with Ukrainian soldiers.
 
Ukraine's currency value fell 75% from pre Crimea levels to the USD. Make no mistake. This is the US fighting Russia with Ukrainian soldiers.
What is the weather like in Ukraine at the moment and how will the war play out now that winter is coming? I remember they held off invading until after the spring and it dried out quite a bit so that they lessened logistic problems with the machinery. How is the changing season going to play into it?

Man, I can't image surviving with the utilities going out. How are Ukrainians getting enough food dispersed to survive, especially with winter here?
 
What is the weather like in Ukraine at the moment and how will the war play out now that winter is coming? I remember they held off invading until after the spring and it dried out quite a bit so that they lessened logistic problems with the machinery. How is the changing season going to play into it?

Man, I can't image surviving with the utilities going out. How are Ukrainians getting enough food dispersed to survive, especially with winter here?
To begin, the Ukrainian and Russian mindset is radically different from the Western mindset. Ukrainians have a saying something like "I have the right to live no matter how awful the circumstances". They will put up with an amazing amount of crap.

Americans make the mistake to think the Soviet system was about communism. Communism was simply a delivery system by which to control the masses. High communist officials made a lot of money and were the (or relatives) of oligarchs. Part of what drove some to Kuchma and Yanukovych was the fact that they weren't from ultra-high privilege at their roots. Yushenko didn't either, but he got into Central Banking under the old system and was seen as being of privilege (a bankster). I got to sit really close to Kathy Yushenko's parents on a flight to Kyiv and surmised they were not of privilege either. Kathy's (Katya) parents emigrated to Chicago from Ukraine where she was born I think.

The privileged still steal from everyday people. However, there were good things about the collective system. After working in the fields, everyone was poor and would have community singings, music, theatre and arts. No place on earth is better. Awesome guitar playing. People actually did a lot of socializing which of course involved vodka.

That community spirit still is engrained in society, so people help each other a lot and share. Older people really do miss those times in some ways. So hardship is mitigated. That works better in villages and smaller cities. In the bigger cities they have a nice system of support as far as sharing food and shelter for the most part. I do fear for orphans as the society doesn't really come to grips with that very well. The Govt is corrupt and doesn't care and those that do care are poor.

In Poltava (200 mi east of Kyiv) it is midnight and 25 degrees. Their weather typically is similar to Waterloo, except a lot less rainfall. Maybe 2/3 as much as Sioux City. Absolutely they have the world's best farm soil. When the ground gets frozen, they can drive over ground with heavy equipment. In Illinois roads get posted around Feb 1 as the temp goes up and down and freeze/thaw starts and it is impossible to off-road. They don't have many gravel/dirt roads, but more like IL where there is a lot of rock and oil, so the rural roads are better, but still not weight-bearing aside from Oblast (state) or Federal Highways when the thaw happens. They don't have nearly as many rural roads as Iowa/IL. They also use concrete utility pools which don't snap with ice and wind as readily.

I will never understand Putin invading in February and not waiting till the ground dried out. His tanks and supply trucks were sitting ducks for when the US flooded the countryside with MANPADS.

Ukrainians have been stocking up on food big time. Many are masters at gardening. They store their produce and what is grown is grown for substance and storage. In the villages, the land ownership question still hasn't been solved but people were typically given a couple acres behind their homes. Villages are usually very long with few side streets with gardens behind them. A good deal of rural homes have dirt floors btw. Some thatched roofs. The west through ministries has been providing food shipments. I myself have raised money for a friend who houses refugees moving through or sometimes staying.

The hardest thing for them is living in fear of missile strikes, a hit on nuke power plants and so on. The legacy of Chernobyl is real (I have my own Chernobyl story for another time). The attacks have been so widespread that everyone is terrified of the unknown. They are very aware of the traffic in the early war days were it took 4 days to go 200 miles stuck with fighting within hearing distance.

Maybe you saw this, but the young girl in the video is in Kyiv on a street I walked many times. The sirens went off and she was videoing herself. She survives, but you can get the idea.

 
To begin, the Ukrainian and Russian mindset is radically different from the Western mindset. Ukrainians have a saying something like "I have the right to live no matter how awful the circumstances". They will put up with an amazing amount of crap.

Americans make the mistake to think the Soviet system was about communism. Communism was simply a delivery system by which to control the masses. High communist officials made a lot of money and were the (or relatives) of oligarchs. Part of what drove some to Kuchma and Yanukovych was the fact that they weren't from ultra-high privilege at their roots. Yushenko didn't either, but he got into Central Banking under the old system and was seen as being of privilege (a bankster). I got to sit really close to Kathy Yushenko's parents on a flight to Kyiv and surmised they were not of privilege either. Kathy's (Katya) parents emigrated to Chicago from Ukraine where she was born I think.

The privileged still steal from everyday people. However, there were good things about the collective system. After working in the fields, everyone was poor and would have community singings, music, theatre and arts. No place on earth is better. Awesome guitar playing. People actually did a lot of socializing which of course involved vodka.

That community spirit still is engrained in society, so people help each other a lot and share. Older people really do miss those times in some ways. So hardship is mitigated. That works better in villages and smaller cities. In the bigger cities they have a nice system of support as far as sharing food and shelter for the most part. I do fear for orphans as the society doesn't really come to grips with that very well. The Govt is corrupt and doesn't care and those that do care are poor.

In Poltava (200 mi east of Kyiv) it is midnight and 25 degrees. Their weather typically is similar to Waterloo, except a lot less rainfall. Maybe 2/3 as much as Sioux City. Absolutely they have the world's best farm soil. When the ground gets frozen, they can drive over ground with heavy equipment. In Illinois roads get posted around Feb 1 as the temp goes up and down and freeze/thaw starts and it is impossible to off-road. They don't have many gravel/dirt roads, but more like IL where there is a lot of rock and oil, so the rural roads are better, but still not weight-bearing aside from Oblast (state) or Federal Highways when the thaw happens. They don't have nearly as many rural roads as Iowa/IL. They also use concrete utility pools which don't snap with ice and wind as readily.

I will never understand Putin invading in February and not waiting till the ground dried out. His tanks and supply trucks were sitting ducks for when the US flooded the countryside with MANPADS.

Ukrainians have been stocking up on food big time. Many are masters at gardening. They store their produce and what is grown is grown for substance and storage. In the villages, the land ownership question still hasn't been solved but people were typically given a couple acres behind their homes. Villages are usually very long with few side streets with gardens behind them. A good deal of rural homes have dirt floors btw. Some thatched roofs. The west through ministries has been providing food shipments. I myself have raised money for a friend who houses refugees moving through or sometimes staying.

The hardest thing for them is living in fear of missile strikes, a hit on nuke power plants and so on. The legacy of Chernobyl is real (I have my own Chernobyl story for another time). The attacks have been so widespread that everyone is terrified of the unknown. They are very aware of the traffic in the early war days were it took 4 days to go 200 miles stuck with fighting within hearing distance.

Maybe you saw this, but the young girl in the video is in Kyiv on a street I walked many times. The sirens went off and she was videoing herself. She survives, but you can get the idea.


This is what all the "there's gonna be a civil war in America" people don't understand. You have a civil war and suddenly there's no utilities. There's no gas. There's no food. These fat asses who complain when it's 91 degrees outside and they have to walk across the parking lot at Costco wouldn't last a week in a civil war. They don't want to admit it, but the people in the North Vietnamese Army or Ukraine are way tougher from grueling day to day conditions than the vast vast vast majority of Americans. We just won the birth lottery.
 
This is what all the "there's gonna be a civil war in America" people don't understand. You have a civil war and suddenly there's no utilities. There's no gas. There's no food. These fat asses who complain when it's 91 degrees outside and they have to walk across the parking lot at Costco wouldn't last a week in a civil war. They don't want to admit it, but the people in the North Vietnamese Army or Ukraine are way tougher from grueling day to day conditions than the vast vast vast majority of Americans. We just won the birth lottery.
Agree wholeheartedly. Lot's a behind the computer screen pomp. The NVA maybe was the 2nd best fighting force in the world during the Vietnam War. When Vietnam humanitarily invaded Cambodia in the late 70s with their regulars, the Chinese invaded the north of Vietnam where they fought "Guard" units and got clobbered. Those Guard units were basically the "old guys" from the NVA that fought the US.
 
I have lost communication with the Ukrainian friends I typically talk with on a regular basis.

Oh no. Sorry to hear that and I hope they are OK.

I wondered, does this happen from time-to-time due to the situation, or is this something that is very very concerning for you? I can't imagine trying to get a hold of someone in that situation and not hearing back. This bumps off what you and OK4P were talking about above.

Most in America really cannot relate. We just have everything at our disposal and don't have to work too hard to live comfortably. We would so suck at going thru what those people are going through.

If utilities went out in America and we were forced to ration, we would self destruct, loot, steal, and even kill to survive. We would not share. This is a very sad realization to admit to. As a society, we no longer "get it" in America. Godspeed.
 
Exactly... we don't know. Precarious time. He is getting a lot of heat on an end to the war due to US elections. Has reasons to escalate. Still could be a mistake and jumped to a conclusion about what it was. Poland is moving toward involvement as are other former Warsaw Pact nations.

You may notice the news reports a lot about how European nations are providing support for Ukraine and the US isn't mentioned as much.

View attachment 9505

This is insane, yet all the talk around here is complaining about paying off student debt. SMH
 
Ukrainian Successes

Ukraine is using tactics that are for sure not old Soviet/Russian style. They are using Thunder Runs. Thunder Runs are ancient tactics also used in WW2. Another way of describing it is Shock and Awe.

Basically, this is about using small highly mobile units that are lightly armed to wreak havoc at enemy weak spots and terrorize the enemy from behind. Similar to the biblical story of Gideon and terrorizing the enemy with a very small force using bugle horns and lanterns. The enemy fled.

In order to do this and move up on enemy retreats, supply is vital. The US is the worlds best at this and yet other countries have equally as good of soldiers, but not supply support. I mentioned this early in that the Brits and Germans are supplying more individual soldier guidance and weapons guidance, but the US is heavily involved in supply.

The Russians are terrible at support. They tried Thunder Runs in the early days of the war with limited success and colossal failure as they sucked at support. Communication is vital and the communication system they had was believed to be the best in the world (though I really don't believe that as we fought Russians in Syria and had to know) was a failure and they had to use cell phones and open radio which resulted in numerous generals being popped.

US supplied himar systems obliterated what supplies the Russians had behind the lines and light infantry attacked weak points. The closer the Ukrainians get to Crimea and the deeper into Luhansk and Donetsk the gains will be more difficult.

The results are not a total surprise and the Russian system doesn't handle surprise well. Also, the Russians tried Thunder Runs in Grozni and were smashed by the Georgians. Thunder runs do not do well in urban centers. Mariupol was an old Soviet style attack that destroyed the city. The US tried a thunder run in Mogadishu with terrible results in an urban setting with terrible logistics.

In WW2, Patton was a genius at Thunder Runs with tanks. If you get bored sometime, look at detailed maps of his offensive. He wanted to run all the way to Berlin but was stopped by command. The Germans and Soviets never caught on much to fighting Thunder Runs and did headlong attacks which you see in movies with rows of tanks moving forward across fields.

The British tried a thunder run with Market Garden (A Bridge too Far). The US protested but relented to Monty. Monty had XXX Corp which had the US 101 and 82 Airborne Divisions attached. The Brit 1st Abn was to take Arnhem i the far north. 82nd was assigned Nijmegen. The 101 Einhoven. All along a narrow road and Holland is often a pool of mud so only narrow roads were usable. The ABn was to take bridges and Brit tanks were to move up with infantry. The Germans blew a bridge at the beginning which delayed tanks in the 101 sector. The 82nd was worried about being attacked by armor from nearby Germany and delayed taking the Nijmegen bridge to fortify against an attack that didn't come for a week. The Brits landed on SS armor on R and R from the eastern front and were mauled. Market Garden as a thunder run was a huge failure. Monty thought in a matter of weeks he would be in Berlin and never made it off the 60 mile Hell's Highway.

With winter approaching (they are having the same conditions we are currently), the thunder runs won't work. As Russian tightens weak points, gains will become harder. Whether their untrained conscripts can hold remains to be seen.

Ukraine right now is attacking supplies and weapons in Russia. This past few weeks they heavily damaged a Russian frigate in the Black Sea which is a sitting target easily seen by US satellites.

Russia desperately wants to keep Crimea for it's operations in the middle east where they want to disrupt oil supplies to Europe which would replace Russian oil. They will desperately want to keep Donbas due to the oil/gas reserves there.
 
Been a while since I've done an update.

The Russians did withdraw all troops from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Those troops were largely sent to the Donbas region in E/SE Ukraine where strategic reserves of shale oil is located. Fighting has been intense with incredible casualties on both sides. I personally know the wife and FIL of a wounded soldier who will likely lose his arm. She was a Soviet Olympian. Most Ukrainians are living with blackouts going 8 or 16 hours off and on due to damage to the electric grid from missile and drone strikes.

Intense fighting is located in the middle of the line in Donbas. Bakhmut and the surrounding areas is about to fall to Russian soldiers (namely the WAGNER GROUP mercenaries (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group) and from Chechnya. Bakhmut is almost completely surrounded and fighting is street by street.

NATO is supplying German tanks which are quite serviceable and can be used with training. The US you might have heard is supplying 31 Abrams tanks. These tanks aren't really serviceable as they require a lot of joint support, something which only the US can really do compared to any other armed forces in the world. The one's the US is supplying are not equipped with uranium armor which the US one's in service have.

There is absolutely NO WAY the Ukrainians can use these tanks without a lot of US support meaning more boots on the ground. Abrams are THE BEST TANK in the world, but not when used by the Ukrainian armed forces by themselves. This is a HUGE development (my opinion) in widening the war. It is just short of NATO declaring war on Russia. 31 properly supported Abrams tanks can do real damage to the Russians.

The Russians have also launched an intense attack to the south of Bakhmut near Zaporhizia where there is a large nuclear reactor.
 
Been a while since I've done an update.

The Russians did withdraw all troops from the west bank of the Dnipro River. Those troops were largely sent to the Donbas region in E/SE Ukraine where strategic reserves of shale oil is located. Fighting has been intense with incredible casualties on both sides. I personally know the wife and FIL of a wounded soldier who will likely lose his arm. She was a Soviet Olympian. Most Ukrainians are living with blackouts going 8 or 16 hours off and on due to damage to the electric grid from missile and drone strikes.

Intense fighting is located in the middle of the line in Donbas. Bakhmut and the surrounding areas is about to fall to Russian soldiers (namely the WAGNER GROUP mercenaries (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group) and from Chechnya. Bakhmut is almost completely surrounded and fighting is street by street.

NATO is supplying German tanks which are quite serviceable and can be used with training. The US you might have heard is supplying 31 Abrams tanks. These tanks aren't really serviceable as they require a lot of joint support, something which only the US can really do compared to any other armed forces in the world. The one's the US is supplying are not equipped with uranium armor which the US one's in service have.

There is absolutely NO WAY the Ukrainians can use these tanks without a lot of US support meaning more boots on the ground. Abrams are THE BEST TANK in the world, but not when used by the Ukrainian armed forces by themselves. This is a HUGE development (my opinion) in widening the war. It is just short of NATO declaring war on Russia. 31 properly supported Abrams tanks can do real damage to the Russians.

The Russians have also launched an intense attack to the south of Bakhmut near Zaporhizia where there is a large nuclear reactor.

Joe Biden in March of 2022: We're not sending in tanks, that's World War III.

Joe Biden Now: Send in the tanks.
 
Joe Biden in March of 2022: We're not sending in tanks, that's World War III.

Joe Biden Now: Send in the tanks.
A good friend of mine in Ukraine puts it this way. The US is going to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

In Vietnam the US sent in advisors to help teach how to us US weapons. We know how that went. Himars systems increased US presence in Ukraine. Abrams will really escalate US troops on the ground.
 
A good friend of mine in Ukraine puts it this way. The US is going to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

In Vietnam the US sent in advisors to help teach how to us US weapons. We know how that went. Himars systems increased US presence in Ukraine. Abrams will really escalate US troops on the ground.

Horrible. My dad's buddy who got drafted and forced to go to Vietnam was the most red pilled guy I have ever met. Dude came to our house to watch Radio Bikini when it debuted on PBS back in 1988 and he was pissed off because that Bikini Atoll nuclear test was even worse than spraying the troops with Agent Orange. The number of people under 50 who know anything about how our troops get treated by our own government is dangerously low. By the way, have they ever figured out precisely what caused "Gulf War Syndrome" after our 1991 excursion in Kuwait?

I don't want to lose a single drop of American blood over a piece of land in a foreign country. I ain't signing up for a war against Russia or China. No freaking way.
 
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