Miller: Can Iowa Still Win the Big Ten?

Michigan is the only team that hasn't lost a home conference game. NW just won 3 consecutive conference road games for the 1st time since 1960. Home court is far from safe these days in the B1G. The Hawks should keep those road wins coming tonight.
 


"... But let's be clear, it is not supported by any valid argument, just as UM & MSU losing 4 and 3 games out of 10, respectively, is supported by anything other than hope..."

MICH is starting it's regression back to the mean. MI was 'unlucky' to have Yogi ever perform (7-8 3's), unlucky to have IU shoot well above their season performance (54% from field) and unlucky to soot only 23% from outside the arc. So the bad luck breaks went against them today resulting in loss.

Now we've seen MICH with it's 2nd road loss of the season to an unranked team, showing the very low ceiling they have on the road and how bad they are when their 3pt shooting isn't there..
Roads games at IA, OSU, Pur, and Illinois, plus home vs MSU, Wisky, and gopher, 3 or 4 losses is not out of question for this suspect road performer....
 


kctom said:
My 'hope' is tied to the inevitable regression to the mean in their 'unluckiness' that is currently @ 299 of 330 or so teams.

Will see starting tomorrow about Michigan on the road.
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None of what you've posted makes any sense.

You're from the future. That makes sense.
 


Sure it does.

Before the Illinois game, Iowa was the 299th most unlucky team in the nation, as determined by KenPom. ( if you are unfamiliar w that metric pls research that).

My 'hope' may be defined better as my belief that IOWAs bad luck will begin to regress towards the mean, or more towards there dominant offensive and defensive metrics, which are in the top 5, which is at the other end of the statistical spectrum.

'Hope', that helps...
 


kctom said:
Sure it does.

Before the Illinois game, Iowa was the 299th most unlucky team in the nation, as determined by KenPom. ( if you are unfamiliar w that metric pls research that).

My 'hope' may be defined better as my belief that IOWAs bad luck will begin to regress towards the mean, or more towards there dominant offensive and defensive metrics, which are in the top 5, which is at the other end of the statistical spectrum.

'Hope', that helps...
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So when you blow a 21 point lead and end up winning, how does that register on the luck scale?
 


Again, I would ask you to refer to the 'mathematical Kenpom' definition of luck, or unluckiness. It is a statistical measurement of your performance metrics or how well you preform at offense, defense, transition, margin, and then measures it to where you should be at from a Win loss perspective.

It has nothing to do with the 21 pt blown lead, and everything to do with IOWAs top 5 tool box being superior to the 2nd division skill sets of Illinois and the superior skill set came out on top.

If Iowa would've lost by a pt, then, yes, that wouldbhave been mathematically 'unlucky'
 


kctom said:
Sure it does.

Before the Illinois game, Iowa was the 299th most unlucky team in the nation, as determined by KenPom. ( if you are unfamiliar w that metric pls research that).

My 'hope' may be defined better as my belief that IOWAs bad luck will begin to regress towards the mean, or more towards there dominant offensive and defensive metrics, which are in the top 5, which is at the other end of the statistical spectrum.

'Hope', that helps...
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Careful.

You're dangerously close to falling into the stereotype that mathematical analyst lovers have no sense of humor.
 




kctom said:
Again, I would ask you to refer to the 'mathematical Kenpom' definition of luck, or unluckiness. It is a statistical measurement of your performance metrics or how well you preform at offense, defense, transition, margin, and then measures it to where you should be at from a Win loss perspective.

It has nothing to do with the 21 pt blown lead, and everything to do with IOWAs top 5 tool box being superior to the 2nd division skill sets of Illinois and the superior skill set came out on top.

If Iowa would've lost by a pt, then, yes, that wouldbhave been mathematically 'unlucky'
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You're being quite opportunistic in you application of "luck" vs "skill".

The validation or debunking of this "mathmatical" definition of luck only occurs within the context of time and situation. Fortunately, (luckily) for the Hawks, they blew the 21 point lead with enough time to recover from their poor performance and salvage a victory. At the same time, they were playing the worst team in the conference, which (luckily) favored their "skill" to overcome such a squandering of prosperity. On the other hand, in the previous 3 losses after blowing double digit leads, they were facing a less favorable time context and higher quality opponent that prevented them from recovering.

You want to keep applying these matrices as independent variables, when they actually are completely interdependent, all while disregarding the time and situational context.

Finally, the concept of "mathmetical luck" is a complete oxymoron. The more anything deemed "luck" can be validly measured, it begins to manifest as reliably predictable. Once this happens, it defies it's own definition as "luck" (chance) and now must be considered "skill".

What's more, in order to transcend being mere "luck" and becoming something on which you can rely, it must occur more than once or twice. Since you refer to Michigan losing to Indiana as a convergence of several unlucky occurrences, it must mean that the expectation that they will reoccur is completely unpredictable.

Once again, we return to the only acceptable substance to your argument -- hope ... that Michigan and MSU will lose and Iowa will win.

Now, if you want to take credit that your hope influenced Michigan losing to Indiana, by all means, keep it up, brother.;):D
 


I think you've missed the entire argument.

Iowa is vastly superior to Illinois in all measurable skill sets and therefore should have won the game, which they did. 21 pt leads you refer to mean nothing, no more than who scored 1st or who was ahead at halftime.

In the end the better team won, why? Because they are better at offense, defense, and creating more opportunities to be better. In winning this game IOWAs YTD bad luck inched downward.

As for my 'hope' and MICH vs IU, it had nothing to do with it. Zero. I did say that the game at IU was a bit of a pick em game and that due to Michigan's evidenced based low ceiling road performances (UNC-C and NEB) they could get beat. Plus, in any 50/50 type game, good, or bad luck may occur to influence the game. Yogi goes 7-8 on 3s and 27 pts on 10 FGA. Well, those are so far above his norm and were cased bests, so a great game for sure, give him credit, but well beyond any reasonable expectations. and herewe see MICHigans plus plus luck YTD, regress, as we should have assumed (and kinda did) it would.

For the record, I don't think that Illinois is the worst team in the league either.
 


kctom said:
I think you've missed the entire argument.

Iowa is vastly superior to Illinois in all measurable skill sets and therefore should have won the game, which they did. 21 pt leads you refer to mean nothing, no more than who scored 1st or who was ahead at halftime.

In the end the better team won, why? Because they are better at offense, defense, and creating more opportunities to be better. In winning this game IOWAs YTD bad luck inched downward.

As for my 'hope' and MICH vs IU, it had nothing to do with it. Zero. I did say that the game at IU was a bit of a pick em game and that due to Michigan's evidenced based low ceiling road performances (UNC-C and NEB) they could get beat. Plus, in any 50/50 type game, good, or bad luck may occur to influence the game. Yogi goes 7-8 on 3s and 27 pts on 10 FGA. Well, those are so far above his norm and were cased bests, so a great game for sure, give him credit, but well beyond any reasonable expectations. and herewe see MICHigans plus plus luck YTD, regress, as we should have assumed (and kinda did) it would.

For the record, I don't think that Illinois is the worst team in the league either.
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I like this type of analysis. Please continue to share when you are so inclined.
 


"...I like this type of analysis. Please continue to share when you are so inclined..."

I believe that makes 2 of us :)
 


KCTom - Thoughts on Iowa also finishing last year with a -.029 Luck rating, 255th in the country? Could they be similar to a Wisconsin team who KenPom's pythagorean efficiency rating consistently rates higher than their actual win/loss record as evidenced by them having a negative luck rating for 6 years in a row?
 


If you are asking "is Iowa's higher Pyth # relative to W-L record owing to poor luck?" I would say Yes, but only partly. The cumulative high offense and defensive efficiency ratings would have a greater impact on that final Pyth # (I would assume anyway).

As for luck, or bad luck, losing 2 OT games to 2 teams often talked about on the top Bracketolgy line in MSU and Nova, both who have lower efficiency and fewer possessions, certainly leads to that 283rd luck ranking.
 


kctom said:
If you are asking "is Iowa's higher Pyth # relative to W-L record owing to poor luck?" I would say Yes, but only partly. The cumulative high offense and defensive efficiency ratings would have a greater impact on that final Pyth # (I would assume anyway).

As for luck, or bad luck, losing 2 OT games to 2 teams often talked about on the top Bracketolgy line in MSU and Nova, both who have lower efficiency and fewer possessions, certainly leads to that 283rd luck ranking.
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Does anyone remember that homerhawkeye777 or whoever that was? This guy really reminds me of him. Granted that guy had like eleventy billion posts and kctom has a few less than that but the content is similar...including their love for math. :)
 


I think the Hawks finish 6-3 back half and 12-6 overall, very respectable. Likely losses are at MSU, at IU, at MN, and home UM. If we can do 7-2 back half that would be AWESOME and probably worth 2nd place.
 


HawksMN said:
I think the Hawks finish 6-3 back half and 12-6 overall, very respectable. Likely losses are at MSU, at IU, at MN, and home UM. If we can do 7-2 back half that would be AWESOME and probably worth 2nd place.
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We went 6-3 in the 1st half and the 2nd half schedule is easier. We have 5 home games instead of 5 road games and 2 of the 3 teams that beat us come to our place this time around. I will consider 6-3 to be regressing. I'm sticking with 8-1...losing at Michigan State.
 




I think we will be battling for 2nd which is fine by me. Go back and look at preseason predictions and I think I had predicted 3rd and I think we'll finish no worse than 3rd.
 




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