Wisconsin Has Long Odds to Overcome Saturday

[JonDMiller]

There is a stat in here that will blow your mind regarding the Iowa-Wisconsin game, all time. If Wisconsin beats Iowa on Saturday, it will likely be the first time they have ever beaten a really good Iowa team...I explain below.

Long Odds Against Wisconsin | Hawkeye Nation

 

[PatrickAdamovicz]

Mind blowing stat, but just goes to show that Wisconsin has only beaten mediocre Iowa teams. Looking through the list even some of Wisconsin's best teams struggled to put bad Iowa teams away, much like 2007 with Jake Christiansen in Madison.

 

[ShadasRevenge]

Mind blowing stat, but just goes to show that Wisconsin has only beaten mediocre Iowa teams. Looking through the list even some of Wisconsin's best teams struggled to put bad Iowa teams away, much like 2007 with Jake Christiansen in Madison.

I remember Iowa's last play in that game, Chaney was wide open down the middle of the field, and Jake overthrew him by about 2 yards. Chaney would still be running.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Long term historical trends have little bearing on the reality of today.

The more striking trend that is relevant is the fact that Iowa has NEVER had a game against a BB-coached Wisky game where the outcome was any worse than a close loss. And, that is particularly remarkable considering the records that the '06 and '07 Wisky teams had ... and how mediocre Iowa was those years.

This tells me that Iowa has a tangible coaching advantage and is capable of exploiting it. My primary concern is that this is our first game against BB without Norm being at the helm of our D. I wonder if we'll be able to make adjustments earlier enough in the game in order to counter any subtleties that BB tries to exploit early in the game. Brett is already known for exploiting his intimate knowledge of our D and the way that our defenders read their keys in order to benefit his O.

Another thing that I think is different about this year's Wisky squad is that I think that they're tougher than usual. I think that Watt really does help instill more of a culture of toughness on the Badger squad ... and that really does help to make them a better team.

All that said, I still like Iowa's chances in the game.

However, I would recommend to Iowa fans to not read too much into historical trends.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I think Chuck Longs 74 career passings TD's is prob safe for a long time. It's hard to fathom that one being broke.

 

[Rawkhawk73]

Long term historical trends have little bearing on the reality of today.

The more striking trend that is relevant is the fact that Iowa has NEVER had a game against a BB-coached Wisky game where the outcome was any worse than a close loss. And, that is particularly remarkable considering the records that the '06 and '07 Wisky teams had ... and how mediocre Iowa was those years.

This tells me that Iowa has a tangible coaching advantage and is capable of exploiting it. My primary concern is that this is our first game against BB without Norm being at the helm of our D. I wonder if we'll be able to make adjustments earlier enough in the game in order to counter any subtleties that BB tries to exploit early in the game. Brett is already known for exploiting his intimate knowledge of our D and the way that our defenders read their keys in order to benefit his O.

Another thing that I think is different about this year's Wisky squad is that I think that they're tougher than usual. I think that Watt really does help instill more of a culture of toughness on the Badger squad ... and that really does help to make them a better team.

All that said, I still like Iowa's chances in the game.

However, I would recommend to Iowa fans to not read too much into historical trends.

I gotta disagree with you. In college football, long term trends absolutely are relevant.

 

[JonDMiller]

I think Chuck Longs 74 career passings TD's is prob safe for a long time. It's hard to fathom that one being broke.

Yeah, that's pretty big stuff. A three year starter would have to average 25 a year, or a four year starter get 19 a year. A four year starting quarterback? Don't see that too often.

Adam Weber of MN has 66 right now...so Tate might actually be bumped out of the Top Ten Big Ten all time.

 

[Saginawbay]

Iowa in my lifetime has always played well against Wisconsin, and they have never beaten our good teams under either Fry or KF, and I think it is because we really match up well with the style of football UW has played for the past 30 years.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Yeah, that's pretty big stuff. A three year starter would have to average 25 a year, or a four year starter get 19 a year. A four year starting quarterback? Don't see that too often.

Adam Weber of MN has 66 right now...so Tate might actually be bumped out of the Top Ten Big Ten all time.

With Kirk Ferentz being around I definitely don't see any QB coming close sec to the emphasis on the run with clock control & balance of the O that he likes to have.

The only way I see it being broken is if he were to leave the UofI & another coach has a totally different offensive philosophy with passing a lot.

 

[cuinknk]

I remember Iowa's last play in that game, Chaney was wide open down the middle of the field, and Jake overthrew him by about 2 yards. Chaney would still be running.

The throw was actually fine, which cannot be said much about JC. Chaney stumbled slightly, which prevented him from getting to the ball.

 

[Raziel]

Long term historical trends have little bearing on the reality of today.

Tell that to a professional gambler.....I don't think they'd agree with you.

 

[Hawkize1]

Here's a crazy stat: Anytime Iowa has scored more points than Wisconsin in a head to head match-up, Iowa has won 100% of the time. That my friend is a big "whoa".